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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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 Posted: Fri Dec 06, 2019 7:30 am Post subject: |
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| adkindo wrote: | | Quote: | | Nationals owner Mark Lerner says team can't keep both Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon |
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| Quote: | Lerner said the team has made offers to both players but is making backup plans in case either or both players leave.
"It's not up to us," Lerner said. "We can give them a great offer, which we've done to both of those players. They're great people. We'd be delighted if they stay. But it's not up to us; it's up to them. That's why they call it free agency." |
They can't keep both, but they've made offers to both. And they'd be delighted if both stay, even though they can't afford to keep both? |
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adkindo
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Location: Dirty South
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| Posted: Fri Dec 06, 2019 7:52 am Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | adkindo wrote: | | Quote: | | Nationals owner Mark Lerner says team can't keep both Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon |
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| Quote: | Lerner said the team has made offers to both players but is making backup plans in case either or both players leave.
"It's not up to us," Lerner said. "We can give them a great offer, which we've done to both of those players. They're great people. We'd be delighted if they stay. But it's not up to us; it's up to them. That's why they call it free agency." |
They can't keep both, but they've made offers to both. And they'd be delighted if both stay, even though they can't afford to keep both? |
Maybe he is saying they made offers that would allow them to keep both....neither have accepted, and if they have to go higher, they will be forced to choose one? I think Rendon will bounce. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:04 am Post subject: |
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| adkindo wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | adkindo wrote: | | Quote: | | Nationals owner Mark Lerner says team can't keep both Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon |
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| Quote: | Lerner said the team has made offers to both players but is making backup plans in case either or both players leave.
"It's not up to us," Lerner said. "We can give them a great offer, which we've done to both of those players. They're great people. We'd be delighted if they stay. But it's not up to us; it's up to them. That's why they call it free agency." |
They can't keep both, but they've made offers to both. And they'd be delighted if both stay, even though they can't afford to keep both? |
Maybe he is saying they made offers that would allow them to keep both....neither have accepted, and if they have to go higher, they will be forced to choose one? I think Rendon will bounce. |
Yeah, for sure that's what he meant. |
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loslakersss
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Joined: 31 Dec 2008
Posts: 11853
Location: LA
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| Posted: Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:59 am Post subject: |
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Snell's irritated response to the trade: "we traded Pham for Renfroe and a slapd*ck prospect?"  |
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lakersken80
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Joined: 12 Aug 2009
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Going to be hard for Gerrit Cole to turn down a 7 year/245 million offer from the Yankees. |
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ChickenStu
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:47 pm Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | Going to be hard for Gerrit Cole to turn down a 7 year/245 million offer from the Yankees. |
I think the Angels, for one, will offer more than that. The Yankees still may, too. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:29 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | lakersken80 wrote: | | Going to be hard for Gerrit Cole to turn down a 7 year/245 million offer from the Yankees. |
I think the Angels, for one, will offer more than that. The Yankees still may, too. |
If that's the first offer, wow. I can't see a team putting their best offer on the table this soon.
The final numbers could end up being 8 yrs $300M, ($37.5M per) |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:27 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Hero or snitch: Baseball has mixed feelings toward whistleblower Mike Fiers
“Heroic,” said one current American League West player. “Takes big nuts to call bull--- on people and stand there and take the heat that follows. I admire that.”
“Freakin’ punk-ass (bleep),” said a former Astro.
“Mike Fiers?” said a current Astro. “Then give back your ring and your World Series share.”
“He did the right thing,” said a player whose team lost to the Astros in the 2017 postseason. “But I don’t think he’s a hero or a villain. I just hope he doesn’t get demonized.”
The immediate fallout for Fiers appears to be minimal, beyond the news of the investigation and a date with a league investigator. Astros players and management have not publicly challenged his accusations. Opposing players — whether supportive of Fiers or not — have been silent, for the most part.
https://sports.yahoo.com/hero-or-snitch-baseballs-mixed-feelings-on-whistleblower-mike-fiers-140043341.html |
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Lamar's Bud
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Joined: 24 Jun 2005
Posts: 2232
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:51 am Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Quote: | Hero or snitch: Baseball has mixed feelings toward whistleblower Mike Fiers
“Heroic,” said one current American League West player. “Takes big nuts to call bull--- on people and stand there and take the heat that follows. I admire that.”
“Freakin’ punk-ass (bleep),” said a former Astro.
“Mike Fiers?” said a current Astro. “Then give back your ring and your World Series share.”
“He did the right thing,” said a player whose team lost to the Astros in the 2017 postseason. “But I don’t think he’s a hero or a villain. I just hope he doesn’t get demonized.”
The immediate fallout for Fiers appears to be minimal, beyond the news of the investigation and a date with a league investigator. Astros players and management have not publicly challenged his accusations. Opposing players — whether supportive of Fiers or not — have been silent, for the most part.
https://sports.yahoo.com/hero-or-snitch-baseballs-mixed-feelings-on-whistleblower-mike-fiers-140043341.html |
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Those two quotes are almost incriminating.
I think there is little doubt that the Astros used technology and stole signs. How long they have/had been doing it remains to be seen (or at least revealed), but the Astros players involved who are talking about Fiers like this clearly show that something was indeed afoul. |
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lakersken80
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Strasburg staying with Nats on 7 year/245 million deal. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | Strasburg staying with Nats on 7 year/245 million deal. |
Wow. This has the potential to be a disaster for the Nats . . . and the Angels. |
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ribeye
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Joined: 10 Nov 2001
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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Here is a great visual of Strasburg's fastball and changeup as both leave his hand.
Fastball vs Changeup (scroll down) |
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ChickenStu
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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| What a massive overpay that is for Strasburg, who simply is not a durable pitcher, last year notwithstanding. Cole is going to get at least 8 years, likely 9, and over $300MM. I mean, he has been great for the last two years, but still, that feels crazy. There's no way the Dodgers are getting him at that price. Gonna come down to the Yankees and Angels. For the first time I'm flipping my projection from the Angels to the Yankees. |
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ChickenStu
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
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31s
Yankees offer to Cole is expected to be delivered today, via
@Joelsherman1
and
@JackCurryYES
#LAAngels look like the main competition, and perhaps the Dodgers |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16155
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:20 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | What a massive overpay that is for Strasburg, who simply is not a durable pitcher, last year notwithstanding. Cole is going to get at least 8 years, likely 9, and over $300MM. I mean, he has been great for the last two years, but still, that feels crazy. There's no way the Dodgers are getting him at that price. Gonna come down to the Yankees and Angels. For the first time I'm flipping my projection from the Angels to the Yankees. |
I'd bet against a pitcher ever getting a 9 year deal.
It's been stuck at 7 for the longest time. I don't know who the first one was, but it at least goes as far back as Kevin Brown signing with the Dodgers back in 1999.
That's at least 20 years where no pitcher's gotten over 7 years. I can't see Cole jumping to 9 now. |
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ChickenStu
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:29 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | What a massive overpay that is for Strasburg, who simply is not a durable pitcher, last year notwithstanding. Cole is going to get at least 8 years, likely 9, and over $300MM. I mean, he has been great for the last two years, but still, that feels crazy. There's no way the Dodgers are getting him at that price. Gonna come down to the Yankees and Angels. For the first time I'm flipping my projection from the Angels to the Yankees. |
I'd bet against a pitcher ever getting a 9 year deal.
It's been stuck at 7 for the longest time. I don't know who the first one was, but it at least goes as far back as Kevin Brown signing with the Dodgers back in 1999.
That's at least 20 years where no pitcher's gotten over 7 years. I can't see Cole jumping to 9 now. |
I mean, if I'm Cole, I just saw 31-year-old Strasburg get a 7-year commitment. I'm 29. I'm the more highly-coveted guy. I'm getting at least 8, and why not ask for the a deal that takes me through the same age as Strasburg? |
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adkindo
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Cole is about to get stupid money.....that Wheeler contract looks a lot better. Maybe since Rendon is not likely returning to Nats, he signs fairly soon. |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 2:39 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | What a massive overpay that is for Strasburg, who simply is not a durable pitcher, last year notwithstanding. Cole is going to get at least 8 years, likely 9, and over $300MM. I mean, he has been great for the last two years, but still, that feels crazy. There's no way the Dodgers are getting him at that price. Gonna come down to the Yankees and Angels. For the first time I'm flipping my projection from the Angels to the Yankees. |
I'd bet against a pitcher ever getting a 9 year deal.
It's been stuck at 7 for the longest time. I don't know who the first one was, but it at least goes as far back as Kevin Brown signing with the Dodgers back in 1999.
That's at least 20 years where no pitcher's gotten over 7 years. I can't see Cole jumping to 9 now. |
It is not about the years, but the money--both the total amount and the annual amount, the later being reflective of the money/years combination. If someone asks for $300M for 7 years, I might counter $300M for 9 years. If the answer is then 375M for 9 years, maybe I go with $300M for 8 years, or maybe I'm out. |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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Stupid money incoming...
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
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1m
Cole’s final payday is now expected to exceed $300 million — and not by a penny or two. Nine years at $324 million is $36M on avg per year and that is probably not a bad over/under. What Strasburg signed for would move me to take the over on Cole. |
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Theseus
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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Was hoping the Angels would get Cole or Strasburg. Cole preferably. Mostly because the Angels have had awful starting pitching for years now, and Shohei is seemingly their best pitcher.
Its funny how much money teams can throw at these guys and still remain very profitable. Lets see Cole get 400m |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16155
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:46 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | What a massive overpay that is for Strasburg, who simply is not a durable pitcher, last year notwithstanding. Cole is going to get at least 8 years, likely 9, and over $300MM. I mean, he has been great for the last two years, but still, that feels crazy. There's no way the Dodgers are getting him at that price. Gonna come down to the Yankees and Angels. For the first time I'm flipping my projection from the Angels to the Yankees. |
I'd bet against a pitcher ever getting a 9 year deal.
It's been stuck at 7 for the longest time. I don't know who the first one was, but it at least goes as far back as Kevin Brown signing with the Dodgers back in 1999.
That's at least 20 years where no pitcher's gotten over 7 years. I can't see Cole jumping to 9 now. |
I mean, if I'm Cole, I just saw 31-year-old Strasburg get a 7-year commitment. I'm 29. I'm the more highly-coveted guy. I'm getting at least 8, and why not ask for the a deal that takes me through the same age as Strasburg? |
I'm sure he'll ask. And I'm sure he'll get more than Strasburg.
I just think teams have drawn a line in the sand when it comes to contract length and so far, that line has been at 7.
I just don't see it jumping to 9 for Cole. Although, I remember there was talk of Kershaw getting a 10 yr extension with the Dodgers and they ended up settling for 7 with Kershaw saying that he didn't want to be tied down for so long. But I think Kershaw was a 26 yr old at that point? |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | What a massive overpay that is for Strasburg, who simply is not a durable pitcher, last year notwithstanding. Cole is going to get at least 8 years, likely 9, and over $300MM. I mean, he has been great for the last two years, but still, that feels crazy. There's no way the Dodgers are getting him at that price. Gonna come down to the Yankees and Angels. For the first time I'm flipping my projection from the Angels to the Yankees. |
I'd bet against a pitcher ever getting a 9 year deal.
It's been stuck at 7 for the longest time. I don't know who the first one was, but it at least goes as far back as Kevin Brown signing with the Dodgers back in 1999.
That's at least 20 years where no pitcher's gotten over 7 years. I can't see Cole jumping to 9 now. |
It is not about the years, but the money--both the total amount and the annual amount, the later being reflective of the money/years combination. If someone asks for $300M for 7 years, I might counter $300M for 9 years. If the answer is then 375M for 9 years, maybe I go with $300M for 8 years, or maybe I'm out. |
That could be all true. But history over the last 20 years has shown that teams are averse to offering a pitcher anything over 7 years.
I'm just going by history.
It started with Kevin Brown gettin 7 yrs for $105M in 1999 all the way to Strasburg getting 7 yrs $245M.
And over the last 20 years, pitchers kept on getting more and more. But one thing teams never budged on, not for anyone, was the 7 yr number. They drew a hard line in the sand on that one. |
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lakersken80
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Theseus wrote: | Was hoping the Angels would get Cole or Strasburg. Cole preferably. Mostly because the Angels have had awful starting pitching for years now, and Shohei is seemingly their best pitcher.
Its funny how much money teams can throw at these guys and still remain very profitable. Lets see Cole get 400m |
Depends on the market. Some teams like those teams in Florida cannot afford those contracts because the fanbase doesn't show up. |
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Steve007
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:35 pm Post subject: |
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| That Kevin Brown contract seemed incredible at the time. Now I look at those numbers and don’t think much of them. But it was 20 years ago. I wonder what the biggest contract for a pitcher was 20 years before 1999. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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| Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | | That Kevin Brown contract seemed incredible at the time. Now I look at those numbers and don’t think much of them. But it was 20 years ago. I wonder what the biggest contract for a pitcher was 20 years before 1999. |
That might have been the first 7 year contract for a pitcher.
Maddux in 1992 signed a 5 yr $28M deal with the Braves.
Yeah, if Cole is able to get a 9 yr deal this year, it'd be monumental. Other pitchers will start asking for 9 year deals. So far, no pitcher has been able to crack the 7 yr barrier.
One reason why I think there's a 7 yr barrier for pitchers is due to insurance reasons. Here's an old article on insurance on player contracts:
| Quote: | Understanding the Business of Baseball: Insurance on Player Contracts
The business of baseball is a lot tougher to grasp than the dynamics of “on-the-field” play. As fans, we look at the end result of every decision made. Did he sign? Who did we trade? When was he drafted?
Rarely do we get to see what happens behind closed doors.
Recently, the injury of Alex Rodriguez has brought about questions regarding the insurance of a player’s contract. On top of that, the discussion of whether the Yankees can void the deal they voluntarily signed has come into question as well.
Regarding the insurance on a contract, here are some things you need to know:
Most of the insurance policies are covered within 3 year intervals, and most policies are done solely to protect teams from injuries to players on a long term deal. So for example, David Wright’s new 8 year deal would likely get a new policy after 2016, because he was already signed in 2013.
If you’re wondering why this is the case, think like an insurer for a minute.
Would you rather insure a contract for a 30 year old until he’s 38, or would you rather have a new policy at 34 be written? It’s not in the insurer’s best interest to protect the team for the full 8 years at age 30. The likelihood of an injury to Wright at age 35 is greater than the chance at 31. Therefore, the insurer will not offer as much protection in 2017 as they did in 2014.
Most policies cover between 50-80% of the total contract value with premiums as high as 10% of the contract’s annual value. No insurer will cover the entire value of the contract, so there will always be some sort of risk on the teams part.
A major league team can only collect on a policy if a player is on the DL. Prior to the 1999 season, the Baltimore Orioles signed Albert Belle to a 5 year offer worth just over $60 million. Following the 2000 season, Belle was forced to retire due to a degenerative hip disease at age 34.
Because he could not fulfill the remaining 3 years on his contract, three things happened.
The first, he had to remain on their 40 man roster per the agreement within his insurance policy. Belle would still receive every penny of his remaining $39 million, but the Orioles were able to recover $23 million of that contract through the insurance policy.
This moment was when teams and insurer’s focused a little more closely on what and who to insure.
Cardinals former GM Walt Jocketty said
“It’s become so expensive that it’s a cost item we really have to look at when you put your payroll together. If you’re going to insure players, you almost have to include that as part of your payroll.”
The reason for this is likely that there is so much red tape involved in recovering a lucrative policy, that you may not see the recovery in the time it takes to pay said player. The Orioles had to pay Belle, regardless of what happened with the insurance. A baseball player’s contract is guaranteed.
David Wright eye exam
Policies often did, but now definitely do not include coverage on a pre-existing injury. So for example, it’s very unlikely that the Mets would be covered on David Wright’s back should he injure it again or possibly suffer from post-concussion symptoms.
To take it one step back into the past, is it possible the Mets could not get an insurance policy on Jose Reyes’ hamstring/leg problems? It most certainly is.
For pitchers, the policy is generally more expensive and at times may not cover an injury to the elbow or throwing shoulder even if there is not a history of such injury.
In 2009, the Diamondbacks were looking to extend Brandon Webb for 3 years, worth over $50 million. Even though he passed a team physical, the Diamondbacks were informed their insurer would not cover Webb’s right arm. The Diamondbacks pulled their offer at that point. To a fan, they see not bringing Webb back for 3 years as a crime against the team – to the general manager and owner, they saw it as a poor business decision.
Insurance is also important when you consider the possibility of trading aging players on a long term deal.
In 2002, Omar Minaya then GM of Montreal said
“The Tom Glavine negotiations could be a case in point. When you’re negotiating a contract, the insurance issue comes up more and more, especially now that it’s three years. When you take on a guy in a trade, you always ask what’s the insurance situation.”
https://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/understanding-the-business-of-baseball-insurance-on-player-contracts.html/
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Last edited by LongBeachPoly on Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:11 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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