Forward Looking - 2 Year Plan

 
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chekmatex4
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PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2020 10:46 am    Post subject: Forward Looking - 2 Year Plan

Roster

2020 Free Agent

Markieff Morris, Jared Dudley, Dwight Howard, Dion Waiters

Player Options: Anthony Davis, KCP, Avery Bradley, Javale McGee, Rajon Rondo

2021 Free Agent

Danny Green, Anthony Davis, KCP, Avery Bradley, Javale McGee, Rajon Rondo, Quinn Cook, Alex Caruso, Kyle Kuzma (RFA), THT (RFA)

Player Options: Lebron James

Obviously Lakers priority is to resign AD to a long-term deal. Due to C-19 and impact to salary cap, I can see him signing a short term deal (1+1) to become a free agent in 2021 in hopes of salary cap returning to higher levels. This also lines him up with Lebron James' free agency. The primary young players we have are Caruso, Kuzma, and THT.

Trade Assets/Prospects

Lakers gave up a lot to trade for AD. Currently, they cannot trade a 1st round pick until 2026. Kuzma, Caruso, and THT are our best trade prospects

2021 Free Agency

This will be a huge offseason with big names available in free agency. Lakers are well positioned to have significant salary cap space. Giannis and Lebron will be the priority, but Kawhi, PG13, Jrue Holiday, and Bradley Beal are also project to be free agents. A tier down are Gobert, Mike Conley, and Oladipo.

My Plan

My plan would be to maximize 2021 free agency while competing for a championship in 2020. The only player's bird rights I would keep are Alex Caruso because he plays well with Lebron and AD. I may keep THT's rights as well depending on how he develops. Kyle Kuzma is our best prospect, but he doesn't have much of a role with Lebron and AD.

To improve our ability to trade, I would trade Kyle Kuzma for a younger prospect on longer rookie deal plus 2021 1st Round Pick, make our 2020 1st round pick on behalf of someone else and trade for a 2021 1st round pick. This will give us three 2021 1st round picks (assuming we keep our own due to 8-30 protections) and will be able to trade two of them instead of being limited from offering only a 2026 pick.

This way we would have maximum cap space in 2021, presumably have Lebron, AD, Caruso, THT on roster. Opportunity to get a 3rd max player. 3 draft picks to keep or possibility to trade 2 of them.
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Tue May 12, 2020 4:00 pm    Post subject:

AD has 8 years of service, a deal where he can opt out after 2022 and get the 35% max makes sense for him. With his salary, Lebron’s and Deng’s, I can’t see us having max space in 2021. Especially if the cap drops significantly. Some players might be smart to opt in in 2020, especially our crew of players with options. Lebron and Deng are at $46 mil in 2021. Even if the cap only drop to $109 mil, AD would fetch $32.7 mil. That wouldn’t leave a 30% max. It will be interesting to see where the cap goes, I think that I calculated that it would have to drop to $90 mil for it to make sense for AD to extend and not opt out next season.
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chekmatex4
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PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2020 11:05 am    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
AD has 8 years of service, a deal where he can opt out after 2022 and get the 35% max makes sense for him. With his salary, Lebron’s and Deng’s, I can’t see us having max space in 2021. Especially if the cap drops significantly. Some players might be smart to opt in in 2020, especially our crew of players with options. Lebron and Deng are at $46 mil in 2021. Even if the cap only drop to $109 mil, AD would fetch $32.7 mil. That wouldn’t leave a 30% max. It will be interesting to see where the cap goes, I think that I calculated that it would have to drop to $90 mil for it to make sense for AD to extend and not opt out next season.
You bring up good points because I didn't run through the math as salary cap is going to change (and it may be substantial) and max contracts would directly be impacted because they are a percentage of the salary cap. 2020 will likely see a drop, especially if season and playoffs are cancelled, but 2021 should see a rebound. We don't know how much of a drop and rebound there will be so I ignored the math. In your case, it would make sense for Lebron to opt in 2021 at the higher value, but he has previously shown inclination to take a paycut for a better chance to win. Maybe he will do so again to get a 3rd superstar for a longer term deal (less money per year, but longer term).

AD can do consecutive 1+1 deals to get to the 10 year of service mark. Who knows if he wants security vs flexibility.

The final year of Deng's cap hit of $5m is 2021, so definitely has to be considered and hurts the Lakers if the salary cap does not increase.
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dcastillo
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PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2020 12:51 pm    Post subject:

Jrue Holiday or Victor Olidipo would be our realistic ‘third’ guy to get for 2021. Obviously a lot depends on salary cap for next couple years after this c-19 thing. But those two would not demand the money greakfreak or pg13 type players would want. Both are still on their primes and ready to go. Jrue already having history with AD helps as well. Those 2 had really good chemistry in New Orleans. And his defense is one of the best as far as guards go. Victor might also look for a new spot considering the money the Pacers have tied up with Malcolm B. Sabonis and Myles Turner.
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2020 5:49 pm    Post subject:

I read a good article on Twitter yesterday about Freak’s relationship with Steph. After a game this season Steph was overheard asking Giannas to come join the Warriors. The article speculated that if he does, it will be because of Steph.
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chekmatex4
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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2020 6:48 pm    Post subject:

venturalakersfan wrote:
I read a good article on Twitter yesterday about Freak’s relationship with Steph. After a game this season Steph was overheard asking Giannas to come join the Warriors. The article speculated that if he does, it will be because of Steph.
I stopped when you said "good article" and "Twitter." just kidding. Players have become more relationship focused and maybe that is enough to pull Giannis to the Warriors, but Warriors have a lot of work to be able to clear cap space with large salaries on the books in 2021. I don't even think they can do a sign and trade (Any team that acquires a player via sign-and-trade can’t be above the tax apron (a mark about $6MM over the tax line) when the deal is completed — or at any time for the rest of that league year.). Warriors would have to trade for him while he's playing under his current contract, which Bucks have no incentive of doing. Doesn't seem realistic.

Curry $45m, Thompson $38m, Wiggins $31.6m, Green $24m: total of $138.6m between 4 players in 2021.
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