2020 NBA DRAFT THREAD
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:24 pm    Post subject:

Btw, I'm using hoop-math to get some of the shooting data since it's free. If someone knows of a site that has more granular, synergy style shooting data that would be great.

I love what the Stephen is doing in providing that granular data in their scouting profiles these days, but they only started doing that this year so there's no historical data to compare to.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:36 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Imagine being a GM of a current lottery team watching the playoffs and thinking that Wiseman is anywhere close to Anthony Davis athletically and that Wiseman would be a better pick than Okongwu.


I think lottery teams are lured in where "big man doesn't necessarily need touches and can run the floor" and teams would be happy with that.

Playoff basketball and regular season basketball are becoming almost two different sports, but bad teams still seem to draft more often for regular season success than postseason success.

I'm fine with a rim running big, but if you think he won't be able to switch *cough* Wiseman *cough*, you maybe shouldn't draft a guy whose playing time you're going to have limit in the playoffs. I normally wouldn't draft Okongwu top five given some of his offensive limitations - he's almost certainly not going to turn into Adebayo on offense - but in a weak draft with so many unknowns, his ability to switch onto guards as a big is one of the more valuable, bankable skills in this class. OO's upside isn't super high, but I think that kid can give you 25-30 good minutes every night in the playoffs whereas a guy like Toppin is going to be targeted and played off the floor.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:01 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Btw, I'm using hoop-math to get some of the shooting data since it's free. If someone knows of a site that has more granular, synergy style shooting data that would be great.

I love what the Stephen is doing in providing that granular data in their scouting profiles these days, but they only started doing that this year so there's no historical data to compare to.


Hoop math is it.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:54 pm    Post subject:

I did not see Bradley Beal becoming who he is out of college or why he was so highly regarded as a draft prospect. @MikeLG and BVH did you have him rated highly?

What sold me on Beal was a summer video where he was playing one on one against Jordan Clarkson. He easily took Clarkson off the dribble while Clarkson struggled to get by Beal.

Then I realized offensively he was more than just a shooter and could also play defense.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:57 am    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
I did not see Bradley Beal becoming who he is out of college or why he was so highly regarded as a draft prospect. @MikeLG and BVH did you have him rated highly?

What sold me on Beal was a summer video where he was playing one on one against Jordan Clarkson. He easily took Clarkson off the dribble while Clarkson struggled to get by Beal.

Then I realized offensively he was more than just a shooter and could also play defense.

I was checked out on basketball around that time as the Kobe/Gasol team fell apart.

Looking back at Beal's statistical profile without video scouting, I'd be surprised he ended up as good a shooter as he has been, but he was a Morey-ball player even as a college freshman making his living at the FT line/rim and from three. The initiator skills likely would've popped more in games.

Tyler Herro's Beal-ish and had outlier shooting talent that I should've valued even higher than I did in last year's draft. You can count the number of college freshman that shot over 90% from the FT line on two hands and only two of them - JJ Reddick and Herro - did so on volume. Herro also demonstrated playmaking chops and peskiness in passing lanes as a freshman that Reddick didn't have at the same age. The wingspan and slight frame were real concerns, but he landed in a great spot to develop.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:15 am    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
I did not see Bradley Beal becoming who he is out of college or why he was so highly regarded as a draft prospect. @MikeLG and BVH did you have him rated highly?

What sold me on Beal was a summer video where he was playing one on one against Jordan Clarkson. He easily took Clarkson off the dribble while Clarkson struggled to get by Beal.

Then I realized offensively he was more than just a shooter and could also play defense.


Had him roughly Top 5 ish, but didn't think he was a sexy pick; just a really good guard coming out of a program I trusted.

1v1 workouts do help when it's guards/wings but the value of 1v1 drops when it comes to bigs. Too bad they can't do that anymore.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:32 am    Post subject:

Quote:
Theo Malodon
Nico Mannion
Malachi Flynn
Tre Jones
Cassius Winston
Devon Dotson


I look at this list and think, Maledon isn't the sexy pick.

Mannion is the guy that gives me Herro vibes because he's willing to take the pull up jumper.

But it's Flynn, Jones as the two way guys. Dotson too.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:48 am    Post subject:

Man, I just want this draft over with.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:22 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, I just want this draft over with.


Same, but I end up finding something new or another prospect to consider every week.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:49 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, I just want this draft over with.


Same, but I end up finding something new or another prospect to consider every week.


Yep and also evaluators.

Any thoughts on Matt Babcock?
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:51 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, I just want this draft over with.


Same, but I end up finding something new or another prospect to consider every week.


Yep and also evaluators.

Any thoughts on Matt Babcock?


I follow him on twitter but as a secondary opinion.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:00 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, I just want this draft over with.


Same, but I end up finding something new or another prospect to consider every week.


Yep and also evaluators.

Any thoughts on Matt Babcock?


I follow him on twitter but as a secondary opinion.


I just found him either on a podcast or being interviewed on YT. Just gives a different opinion.

For example he is high on Isaiah Stewart. He admits he may not have star talent but he was high on him because of his maturity and how he was a good person who has the attributes to succeed in the NBA.

That was an interesting take and info.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:26 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, I just want this draft over with.


Same, but I end up finding something new or another prospect to consider every week.


Yep and also evaluators.

Any thoughts on Matt Babcock?


I follow him on twitter but as a secondary opinion.


I just found him either on a podcast or being interviewed on YT. Just gives a different opinion.

For example he is high on Isaiah Stewart. He admits he may not have star talent but he was high on him because of his maturity and how he was a good person who has the attributes to succeed in the NBA.

That was an interesting take and info.


That is generally my philosophy, but swat bigs that finish are a dime a dozen, so I don't value the archetype much. So to me, the question is, well, he's a successful NBA player, but is he worth more than a veteran min type of contract after the rookie contract is up?

Considering how LAL found JaVale and Dwight, I don't see how.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:25 pm    Post subject:

^ I think there's a chance Stewart develops as a static shooter, but he's a 6'9 C with somewhat heavy feet and not a lot of vertical pop. He seems like a great teammate, so if he works he can carve out minutes on an NBA roster, but I don't think that's worth a pick above 40.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:35 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, I just want this draft over with.


Same, but I end up finding something new or another prospect to consider every week.


Yep and also evaluators.

Any thoughts on Matt Babcock?


I follow him on twitter but as a secondary opinion.


I just found him either on a podcast or being interviewed on YT. Just gives a different opinion.

For example he is high on Isaiah Stewart. He admits he may not have star talent but he was high on him because of his maturity and how he was a good person who has the attributes to succeed in the NBA.

That was an interesting take and info.


That is generally my philosophy, but swat bigs that finish are a dime a dozen, so I don't value the archetype much. So to me, the question is, well, he's a successful NBA player, but is he worth more than a veteran min type of contract after the rookie contract is up?

Considering how LAL found JaVale and Dwight, I don't see how.


How would you value Mitchell Robinson as a draft prospect? Is he worth much more than Javale or Dwight?
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:55 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
^ I think there's a chance Stewart develops as a static shooter, but he's a 6'9 C with somewhat heavy feet and not a lot of vertical pop. He seems like a great teammate, so if he works he can carve out minutes on an NBA roster, but I don't think that's worth a pick above 40.


I understand the valuation of his skills but with the number of 1st round failures in every draft does a prospect that is more likely to succeed and possibly be a 10+ year player who contributes solid rotation minutes have additional worth?

For reference check out the 1st round picks who have dropped out of the league or are JAG's from the 2014, 2015 and 2016 draft.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:44 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, I just want this draft over with.


Same, but I end up finding something new or another prospect to consider every week.


Speaking of Karim Mane. Big PG or combo G. Similar to Maledon in height and build but a better athlete.

Flashes shooting, passing and ability to attack the paint in vids.

5th year out of high school and I believe highly recruited.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:20 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Man, I just want this draft over with.


Same, but I end up finding something new or another prospect to consider every week.


Yep and also evaluators.

Any thoughts on Matt Babcock?


I follow him on twitter but as a secondary opinion.


I just found him either on a podcast or being interviewed on YT. Just gives a different opinion.

For example he is high on Isaiah Stewart. He admits he may not have star talent but he was high on him because of his maturity and how he was a good person who has the attributes to succeed in the NBA.

That was an interesting take and info.


That is generally my philosophy, but swat bigs that finish are a dime a dozen, so I don't value the archetype much. So to me, the question is, well, he's a successful NBA player, but is he worth more than a veteran min type of contract after the rookie contract is up?

Considering how LAL found JaVale and Dwight, I don't see how.


How would you value Mitchell Robinson as a draft prospect? Is he worth much more than Javale or Dwight?


Right now he's on a McGee trajectory, and someone (or he, himself) is robbing him of $10-15mil future contracts.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:34 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
^ I think there's a chance Stewart develops as a static shooter, but he's a 6'9 C with somewhat heavy feet and not a lot of vertical pop. He seems like a great teammate, so if he works he can carve out minutes on an NBA roster, but I don't think that's worth a pick above 40.


I understand the valuation of his skills but with the number of 1st round failures in every draft does a prospect that is more likely to succeed and possibly be a 10+ year player who contributes solid rotation minutes have additional worth?

For reference check out the 1st round picks who have dropped out of the league or are JAG's from the 2014, 2015 and 2016 draft.


What’s a JAG?

Just Another Guy?
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:38 pm    Post subject:

LakersMD wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
^ I think there's a chance Stewart develops as a static shooter, but he's a 6'9 C with somewhat heavy feet and not a lot of vertical pop. He seems like a great teammate, so if he works he can carve out minutes on an NBA roster, but I don't think that's worth a pick above 40.


I understand the valuation of his skills but with the number of 1st round failures in every draft does a prospect that is more likely to succeed and possibly be a 10+ year player who contributes solid rotation minutes have additional worth?

For reference check out the 1st round picks who have dropped out of the league or are JAG's from the 2014, 2015 and 2016 draft.


What’s a JAG?

Just Another Guy?


Yes. See the 3rd, 5th, 7th and 9th picks from 2015 draft as examples.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:53 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
^ I think there's a chance Stewart develops as a static shooter, but he's a 6'9 C with somewhat heavy feet and not a lot of vertical pop. He seems like a great teammate, so if he works he can carve out minutes on an NBA roster, but I don't think that's worth a pick above 40.


I understand the valuation of his skills but with the number of 1st round failures in every draft does a prospect that is more likely to succeed and possibly be a 10+ year player who contributes solid rotation minutes have additional worth?

For reference check out the 1st round picks who have dropped out of the league or are JAG's from the 2014, 2015 and 2016 draft.

I'm skeptical Stewart has a 5 year NBA career let alone a 10+ year NBA career. There's just too much competition for roster spots every year.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:30 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
LakersMD wrote:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
^ I think there's a chance Stewart develops as a static shooter, but he's a 6'9 C with somewhat heavy feet and not a lot of vertical pop. He seems like a great teammate, so if he works he can carve out minutes on an NBA roster, but I don't think that's worth a pick above 40.


I understand the valuation of his skills but with the number of 1st round failures in every draft does a prospect that is more likely to succeed and possibly be a 10+ year player who contributes solid rotation minutes have additional worth?

For reference check out the 1st round picks who have dropped out of the league or are JAG's from the 2014, 2015 and 2016 draft.


What’s a JAG?

Just Another Guy?


Yes. See the 3rd, 5th, 7th and 9th picks from 2015 draft as examples.


Thanks. Never seen that acronym used before regarding the draft.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:11 am    Post subject:

Did I just get suckered by a workout video? Yes!

Warming back up to Tyrell Terry.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:33 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Did I just get suckered by a workout video? Yes!

Warming back up to Tyrell Terry.


I need to see athletic gains. I saw that vid and thought, he'll still get attacked on defense and I need to see more ball-handling.

Otherwise, he's a small, off-ball, 3 level shooter? On an actually good Stanford offense?
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:51 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Did I just get suckered by a workout video? Yes!

Warming back up to Tyrell Terry.


I need to see athletic gains. I saw that vid and thought, he'll still get attacked on defense and I need to see more ball-handling.

Otherwise, he's a small, off-ball, 3 level shooter? On an actually good Stanford offense?

I think he has scoring lead guard upside. You'd want to leverage his ability off-ball with a bigger plus passer, but I see him ultimately as a guy who can flow from PnR to off-ball work fluidly while being adequate on defense if you can limit his possessions as a PoA defender.

Put him on the Mavs and I think Dallas will have found its third guy (if Porzingis can stay healthy).
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