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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:35 am    Post subject:

^
Every scout loves Dickerson, who draws Frank Ragnow comps. But yes, that's really an extensive injury history that he has, and of course he's still recovering from the torn ACL in January and he wouldn't be at 100% for this entire season. I agree that he won't go in the 1st Round. Having said that, I could see a good team take him in the 2nd as a luxury pick, essentially allowing him to redshirt for a year if necessary. I could even see Tampa Bay trade back into the 2nd Round and then taking him. I could also see a team that knows it is still in a rebuild taking him, figuring on the value down the road. Perhaps a team with an extra 2nd Round pick like the Jaguars? I think Creed Humphrey could go a little higher than Dickerson just because he doesn't come with the same injury questions, but he doesn't have the same upside. A sneaky name to look out for at center is Quinn Meinerz. Apparently he dominated at Senior Bowl week.

I have 7 OL going in the 1st Round, and the draft prop is set at a 6.5 O/U right now, and the Under is actually the -150 favorite. I agree that it seems like there are too many ideal fits for teams that need OL, so I like the Over (which is +110 right now) cashing. Maybe you'll even see 8 of them going. I think 9 would probably be a stretch.

I'm pretty locked into the idea that Buffalo will take an edge rusher or CB with its first pick.

There's no guarantee that a RB gets picked, as the O/U is 0.5; the Over is a strong -220 favorite there. If no RB goes in the first 24 picks, it's tough to see a direct match, but you could see a team trade back up into the 1st Round to take one.

Interesting Draft props...

--Trey Lance's O/U for draft slot is 6.5, with the Under as the -150 favorite

--Kyle Pitts' O/U is 5.5, and the Under is only -110. I quite like the Under, as I don't think he gets by Cincy if he's there, and I think ATL will take him.

--Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith are both listed at O/U 11.5

--Najee Harris is at 29.5, and he's the slight favorite to be the 1st RB chosen

Logical trade down candidates...

--Falcons (a team offers a boatload to get the highest-upside QB left)
--Lions (wants more picks for its massive rebuild, should still be at least 1 QB left)
--Broncos (if it doesn't like a QB enough)
--Vikings (though they own several 3rd/4th's, they don't have a 2nd Rd. pick)
--Patriots (can never rule out a trade down with them)
--Raiders (Mayock has been very unpredictable)
--Colts (we've seen Ballard do this before, value-driven GM's are more likely to embrace this possibility, and they don't have a 3rd Rd. pick)
--Steelers (lots of needs to fill)
--Browns (the front office is very analytics-driven, likes opportunity for value)
--Ravens (another value-driven team)
--Bills (if they have a group of pass rushers rated similarly and think there's value from moving down a few spots to the top of the 2nd Round, or ditto for CB's)
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:41 pm    Post subject:

I also wanted to talk specifically about what I think New England is looking at as far as the QB's. If they draft one, I actually think it would be in a move up for Fields or Lance, not to take Mac Jones. Here's why. Yes, I'm sure that with Belichick's coaching and a high-floor QB like Jones, the Pats could win 10 or 11 games (in a 17-game season) or so. However, I think Belichick may realize that this is a new era. He had the luxury of having the greatest QB ever for 20 years. A team like Pittsburgh was always in the mix because of future HOF'er Ben Roethlisberger. Towards the end of Brady's tenure as a Patriot, you saw the emergence of Patrick Mahomes in KC, and Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. And while you can argue that Lamar's staying power may not be as long because he's such a run-oriented QB, we've seen Josh Allen emerge as a franchise QB, and in Belichick's own division, no less. While the Patriots spent very aggressively in free agency on the offense, it's not like this is a great group of skill position guys. They went from pathetic to acceptable, essentially. If you bring a QB like Mac Jones or Jimmy G in, yeah, they can play ball control offense and run the ball a lot and try to limit the mistakes and play solid defense. But is that really getting you out of the AFC now, where you'll likely have to win 3 playoff games to get to the Super Bowl? (Only 1 team gets the automatic bye now.)

I think it's possible that Belichick realizes that they need to take a swing on a high-upside QB, a QB that can elevate a team. If they can't get Fields, I think they will make an effort to get Lance. If they can't, I don't know that they will draft Jones. I think they would then try to get a stopgap like Jimmy G for this year, do as well as they can, and then get back in the QB market next offseason, where you could see Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson available, among others.
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:21 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:

A sneaky name to look out for at center is Quinn Meinerz. Apparently he dominated at Senior Bowl week.


I mentioned Quinn Meinerz back on page 55. He's a dancing bear. There was a video of him burying poor Dayo Odeyingbo during practice, the man has no regard for the sanctity of human life. He's athletic too, look at these insane numbers:

320 pounds
4.86 40-yard dash (1.73 10-yard split)
4.47 short shuttle
7.33 three-cone
32-inch vertical
9’3 broad jump

He comps TB's Jensen, plays with a nasty, mean streak. Raw, but understands leverage as he wrestled in high school.

All of that, and he's from a backwater DIII school, like Ali Marpet. Marpet put up insane numbers as well, and surprised folks at the Senior Bowl. He was projected afterward as a round 3 to 4 draftee, and was grabbed by TB in the second. Screw the pedigree, Marpet is one of the elite OGs in the NFL.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:02 pm    Post subject:

^
I have Meinerz going as the first pick of the 3rd Round to the Jaguars, and that might be too low. I didn't have a center going until Humphrey to Seattle in the late 2nd, and then I had Dickerson going to the Chiefs in the late 2nd. I could see all 3 of those guys going a little earlier than I have them in my mock.

As far as the QB's after the top 5, I have Davis Mills going to Tampa Bay as the last pick of the 2nd Round, and then I have Mond to Washington, Trask to Chicago, and Jamie Newman to Detroit (with their comp pick) in the 3rd Round. I am quite likely too low on the QB's, but every time I look at the mock I like the fit of other non-QB's better in the 2nd Round.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:23 pm    Post subject:

A lot of the top draftniks on Twitter think that Jamin Davis could go ahead of Zaven Collins.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:15 am    Post subject:

I'm clueless as to Belichick's intentions. His track record on drafting QBs has tended towards pocket passers and I am hesitant to believe that the current trend towards athletic QBs will change his belief system. I think of Belichick as being a contrarian. He's someone who will likely either start or buck a trend, rather than follow. I don't see him as someone who'll draft an athletic QB for the sake of joining the movement, but he will draft a QB who has athletic skills but hangs tough in the pocket. That's why I mocked him drafting Jacoby Brissett a few years back. Brissett is a good athlete and dangerous when he takes to the hoof, but Brissett only does that as an absolute last resort. Like other Belichick QBs, Jacoby stands tall in the pocket... he just happens to be a decent athlete.

The interest in Cam Newton wasn't that rooted in a belief that Cam was an athletic QB. It was Belichick seizing on the league-wide trend on starting and spending assets towards EDGE rushers and lighter, coverage LBs. Belichick was attempting to transition the team towards the run, which is why he foolishly drafted a blocking WR (Harry) in the first round over superior pass-catching WRs, why he emphasized blocking TEs, and why he uncharacteristically drafted a RB in the first round. Belichick is a contrarian; his attempt to buck the trend backfired when his draft picks underwhelmed. Worse, he squeezed Brady out the door as he was going to show the world that his coaching and contrarian view of football was the driving force behind the championships.

The fan in me hopes that New England will draft Trey Lance. He's as raw as sushi when compared to Jones. He can run through his progressions within the pocket, that's a huge qualifier. He has two minuses, one stemming from the obvious lack of big games or elite competition emanating from the North Dakota State schedule, the other is that he tends to not hit his receivers in stride. He is risky as most college QBs don't become more accurate at the next level. Every QB benefits from reps and rhythm which is challenging within a run-oriented college offense. And of course having a private QB coach like a Jordan Palmer could help too.

Robert Kraft obliquely criticized Belichick and the former GM during the offseason. Not only has NE's drafting sucked bad for years, the decision to seemingly not develop their only young backup QB seemed weird. They've made a few hires and for the first time I get the feeling that Belichick finally feels a bit a pressure from the owner's suite.

So what does big bad Bill do? Despite the pressure (or because of it to show his resolve) my take is that Belichick sits at #15, unless someone gives his a cheap deal to move up a couple of slots. He'll take Jones if he thinks Mac has enough arm to hit receivers beyond the hash marks, or Lance if Trey satisfies his quirky risk to reward threshold. He will accept the risk that they'll be off the board.

Two other factors drive this decision. First, the guy who I think Bill has a man-crush on is Jimmy G. That's the fall back as I don't see Jimmy G staying on the SF roster beyond this season. Second, there are some alarming holes on the NE roster. Free agency only fixed a few, the NE roster is manned by aged vet starters and underwhelming younger players. I don't think many realize how bad that NE roster really is at this point.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:18 am    Post subject:

New mock with 6 days to go, without write-ups.

1. Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence

2. Jets
Zach Wilson

3. 49ers
Mac Jones

4. Falcons
Kyle Pitts

5. Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase

6. Broncos (trade up)
Trey Lance

7. Patriots (trade up)
Justin Fields

8. Panthers
Penei Sewell

9. Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle

10. Cowboys
Patrick Surtain

11. Giants
Rashawn Slater

12. Eagles
DeVonta Smith

13. Chargers
Jaycee Horn

14. Vikings
Alijah Vera-Tucker

15. Lions (trade down)
Micah Parsons

16. Cardinals
Kwity Paye

17. Raiders
Teven Jenkins

18. Dolphins
Jaelen Phillips

19. Washington
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

20. Bears
Christian Darrisaw

21. Colts
Sam Cosmi

22. Titans
Caleb Farley

23. Jets
Greg Newsome

24. Steelers
Najee Harris

25. Jaguars
Trevon Moehrig

26. Browns
Azeez Ojulari

27. Ravens
Elijah Moore

28. Saints
Jamin Davis

29. Packers
Zaven Collins

30. Bills
Asante Samuel Jr.

31. Chiefs
Liam Eichenberg

32. Buccaneers
Christian Barmore
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:27 pm    Post subject:

There was a huge trade earlier today, as the Ravens, as expected, shipped out young tackle Orlando Brown. It's interesting that the Ravens were willing to trade him to the Chiefs, a possible conference rival in the playoffs. But at least it's not in the same division. The Chiefs were in on Trent Williams, so you'd expect that they will probably give Brown a big contract as their new LT. I figured that the Ravens could get an early 2nd for him, and the deal is interesting. They end up getting #31 overall, but have to give KC their own late 2nd rounder, #58 overall. However, the Ravens also get KC's 3rd AND 4th rounders this year, while the two teams swap 5th and 6th rounders in the '22 draft (with the Ravens getting the 5th rounder).

Overall, I think the Ravens did about as well as could be expected, given that most in the league knew that they had to move Brown. They get a few bites at the apple in this year's draft and now hold #27 and #31 in the 1st Round. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to move up OR down with one of those picks, depending on how the board shakes out.
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:56 am    Post subject:

Interesting trade. I had an immediate gut-level, hot take reaction that KC overpaid, but the more I thought about it, the more I think KC did well. There are a lot of decent developmental LTs in the draft, but outside of Penei Sewell, none of them are sure bets as LT starters right out of the box. There was really no way for KC to trade up that far. Prior to the trade, I thought KC should draft at least 2, possibly 3 OTs. Overkill? Yes, but absolutely necessary as they really lack starting OTs. Ideally, I thought a OT in the first and second rounds, and a OT/OG in the third round. Kyle Long is not a sure-thing at this stage of his career. And in the end, at least one or two of those draftee OTs would not likely be ready, and might never even pan out.

There are still question marks surrounding Orlando Brown. Though he's somewhat under-tested as a starting LT, I think he can handle it as he did well when given the opportunity. Perhaps the bigger problem he's on the last year of his rookie contract, which means he's going to eat up a sizable portion of next season's salary cap increase.

The Ravens did well. They were in an awkward position with Orlando Brown, and I think they got somewhat decent value; not fire sale value (trade value when another team's starting LT goes down) but decent value.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:38 pm    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
Interesting trade. I had an immediate gut-level, hot take reaction that KC overpaid, but the more I thought about it, the more I think KC did well. There are a lot of decent developmental LTs in the draft, but outside of Penei Sewell, none of them are sure bets as LT starters right out of the box. There was really no way for KC to trade up that far. Prior to the trade, I thought KC should draft at least 2, possibly 3 OTs. Overkill? Yes, but absolutely necessary as they really lack starting OTs. Ideally, I thought a OT in the first and second rounds, and a OT/OG in the third round. Kyle Long is not a sure-thing at this stage of his career. And in the end, at least one or two of those draftee OTs would not likely be ready, and might never even pan out.

There are still question marks surrounding Orlando Brown. Though he's somewhat under-tested as a starting LT, I think he can handle it as he did well when given the opportunity. Perhaps the bigger problem he's on the last year of his rookie contract, which means he's going to eat up a sizable portion of next season's salary cap increase.

The Ravens did well. They were in an awkward position with Orlando Brown, and I think they got somewhat decent value; not fire sale value (trade value when another team's starting LT goes down) but decent value.


Yeah, Brown forced their hand, and the Ravens, as a smart team, weren't going to do a dumb thing like hold on to him and lose him after this year with nothing but a comp pick in return. I have no doubt that KC will pay Brown, as they made a big bid on Trent Williams in free agency.

KC only has one pick in the first 4 rounds now, but they solved their LT need. Thuney will obviously hold down one guard spot, and they added Long and have Duvernay-Tardif coming back at guard. They picked up the Rams' center from last year, Austin Blythe. Mike Remmers is back as a RT option, but I wouldn't be surprised if they coax one of Fisher or Schwartz back, playing them at RT and making Remmers a swing tackle. In any case, I think they've been smart to aggressively improve the line. I still wouldn't rule out an offensive line pick with their 2nd Round pick, as Long and Duvernay-Tardif are basically year-to-year propositions, and so is Blythe, who is on a 1-year deal. I could see them going for Dickerson, Humphrey, or Meinerz if they are there at #58. I could also see them picking a WR at #58.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:47 pm    Post subject:

Yes, and if Remmers proves inadequate as a starter, Thuney can move to RT. It's easier to find a replacement at OG than OT.

I also wonder if either Fisher or Schwartz will make it back, both were solid vets. My gut says that Schwartz' career is likely over, though Fisher might make it back very late season or in time for the playoffs.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:08 am    Post subject:

Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence

Jets
Zach Wilson

49ers
Trey Lance

Falcons
Kyle Pitts

Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase

Dolphins
Penei Sewell

Lions
Jaylen Waddle

Panthers
Jaycee Horn

Broncos
Justin Fields

Cowboys
Patrick Surtain II

Giants
Micah Parsons

Eagles
Rashawn Slater

Chargers
Alijah Vera-Tucker

Vikings
Christian Barmore

Patriots
Mac Jones

Cardinals
Christian Darrisaw

Raiders
Teven Jenkins

Dolphins
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

Washington
Kwity Paye

Bears
DeVonta Smith

Colts
Greg Newsome II

Titans
Rashod Bateman

Jets
Caleb Farley

Steelers
Najee Harris

Jaguars
Kadarius Toney

Browns
Jamin Davis

Ravens
Zaven Collins

Saints
Azeez Ojulari

Packers
Alex Leatherwood

Bills
Jaelan Phillips

Ravens
Dillon Radunz

Buccaneers
Trevon Moehrig
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:49 pm    Post subject:

Pretty excited about this draft. Obviously whoever gruden picks will be cut in a year or two but still excited for other teams
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:58 pm    Post subject:

A few comments:

Pittsburgh takes a RB, which they identified as a key position. Harris looks like the best bet, though they could find a decent RB in the second. I dislike drafting that position in the first round.

Baltimore replaces Orlando Brown. Radunz is a dark horse candidate for the first round.

This is a mediocre draft for the defensive front seven. There just isn't a quality guy here that has all three attributes of experience, production, and elite traits. Barmore lucks out as there are no decent DTs to speak of, and after him there's a bit of a drop off. Barmore at least has a string of strong games against strong competition during the playoffs.

Not sure that Jaelan Phillips really falls that low, but he had a very good (albeit single) season plus a great Pro Day. The concussion history might give pause to the GMs.

Farley is all over the place. I still think he goes in the first. I think he gets called in the last third of the first round.

Patriots stick to their guns and get Mac Jones. I'm comfortable with Mac Jones in the mid-first. There's a lot to like, but I'd like to see him fire some missiles past the hash marks before moving him up. There's been talk of New England lusting after Justin Fields, but I doubt Belichick will pay that much to move up to grab him. If Denver decides to throw in their lot with Drew Lock for at least one more season, I could see Belichick trading up to the Dallas pick as it would be relatively cheap.

Chargers take a solid player who played locally. Struggling teams attempt to curry favor with fans by drafting local college prospects.

Bucs improve the defensive secondary. I prefer Moehrig, he's the best player remaining at this point. I thought hard about forcing the issue by drafting a DT/EDGE, but it didn't make sense.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 4:04 pm    Post subject:

Now in terms of San Francisco. Drum roll.

I was never sold on Mac Jones being the presumptive third pick. I like the guy, but as I said, I'd want to see evidence of at least adequate fire power. But SF is making some rather strange noises that indicate that they might take an NFL-ready QB. First, if SF drafts Trey Lance, they should keep Jimmy G around as I don't see Lance as being anywhere near NFL ready. That isn't true of Mac Jones. Second, it's interesting on how Lynch is proclaiming that the QB decision solely rests on Shanahan, it sounds like he's distancing himself from a decision that he doesn't endorse. Third, Shanahan now sounds like they're trying to solicit a bid for Jimmy G, even if it isn't a first rounder.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 4:07 pm    Post subject:

Halflife wrote:
Pretty excited about this draft. Obviously whoever gruden picks will be cut in a year or two but still excited for other teams


Gruden is erratic, but I thought Mayock would do a better job assisting him.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:44 pm    Post subject:

Pretty crazy how Kansas City will have 5 new starters on the offensive line this season in the first game vs. last season in the first game.

That Super Bowl with Mahomes running for his life was ugly. Give him any protection and he is the best QB in the league at present in my mind with Aaron Rodgers right there.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:40 pm    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
Halflife wrote:
Pretty excited about this draft. Obviously whoever gruden picks will be cut in a year or two but still excited for other teams


Gruden is erratic, but I thought Mayock would do a better job assisting him.

But have you seen mayocks high fives
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:01 pm    Post subject:

I really think SF is going to take Mac Jones. This is a front office that drafted Solomon Thomas third overall. My read on this last-gasp "Lance is in play" stuff is that some of the scouts probably do prefer Lance and they want that to be known, so that if/when Jones isn't too great and/or Lance outplays him, they got that on record. But this is basically a Kyle Shanahan pick. Lynch basically said that he defers to Shanahan on most things, even if Lynch technically has the final say.

Most NFL insiders have thought Jones from the time they made the trade up. If it isn't Jones, this has been a truly elaborate smokescreen, and there has been no reason to smokescreen for a while now. You don't make that kind of a move up if your mind isn't made up on a guy, I simply refuse to believe that. This isn't Draft Day, starring Kevin Costner! The mere leaking that "Lance is being considered" just tells you that it was Jones from the start, imo. I just think that all signs point to Jones at 3. But we'll see
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:44 pm    Post subject:

It sounds borderline foolish to trade that many first round picks just to take Mac Jones. It would be more understandable if this were their own draft pick, but that many assets for Jones is ridiculous. It’s almost to the point where if SF doesn’t draft Mac, does he fall like a rock? He’d probably be there by the time the Patriots are on the clock. I wouldn’t be surprised if when all is said and done, Garappolo, even with on again, off again injuries, has a better career than Jones.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 9:45 pm    Post subject:

I kept doubting that SF would seemingly overdraft Mac Jones. I really like Jones, and I can see why most folks are underwhelmed. He doesn't have that elite, wow factor arm talent that you see in Mahomes, Allen, or Rodgers. What I think many (including scouts) overlook is whether the draftee quickly processes the field and makes good decisions. That's how I see Jones.

I don't but the Trey Lance rumor at all. It's Jones or Fields. In absence of injury, SF still has a quality team. It doesn't make sense for them to sit on their hands this season and possibly part of next season waiting for Lance to develop.
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:00 pm    Post subject:

49er fans have been in denial that it will be Jones, and it's actually been funny to watch. They really don't want it to be Jones. Shanahan's press conference yesterday practically said "I don't care what the fans think", and he didn't seem happy lol. I'm like 90% sure it will be Jones, but maybe we'll get a bombshell on the day of the draft like when Schefter scooped the Mayfield pick at #1 for the Browns. (Darnold had been the slight favorite heading into that final day.)
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:24 am    Post subject:

It's now Tuesday morning. Two days (plus) to go. Back to a mock with write-ups. Starting to feel good about some of these player-team fits and player fits with their approximate ranges. Let's go.

1. Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Set in stone for months.

2. Jets
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
The Jets make the mistake of Wilson over Fields.

3. 49ers
Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
The 49ers make the mistake of Jones over Fields, though I believe it's Lance that would be the darkhorse pick if not Jones.

4. Falcons
Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
I just don't think ATL goes QB, and I don't think they want to move all the way back to 15 with the Patriots. I'm not even sure that they want to pass on Pitts if they could move to 9 with Denver, and I'm not convinced that Denver GM George Paton is keen on giving up major assets to move up. I don't see Detroit or Carolina moving up, either.

5. Bengals
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Cincy has a history of prioritizing WR's high in the draft over linemen, and they do it again here. Another mistake in the top 5.

6. Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
If Pitts and Chase are gone, I think Miami would like to trade down 2-3 spots and still be able to take Waddle. I believe they prefer Waddle to Smith, as I'm convinced NFL teams aren't going to make Smith a top 10 pick because of his weight. Again, I don't think Detroit or Carolina want to move up for a QB. In thinking about Denver, maybe they'd be willing to go from 6 to 9, but even if they were, Miami may be worried that Detroit or Carolina could pick Waddle. I think the most likely scenario is they stay and pick Waddle, but a trade is completely possible here.

7. Patriots
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio St.
TRADE!
Detroit is a prime trade down candidate, as I've noted before and as most of the league knows. I don't think Denver prefers Fields to Lance, and there are some Cam Newton-Fields connections. Fields is also more ready to play than Lance is, and New England didn't just spend wildly in free agency to sit out this QB offseason. They cough up their 2022 1st rounder in the move up, and this gives the Lions THREE 2022 1st's.

8. Chargers
Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
TRADE!
Instead of a move up, and instead of drafting Lance, I think the Panthers are a trade back candidate. They could absolutely draft Sewell for themselves, in which case you've still hit on Sewell at #8 overall. But I could see Tom Telesco with an aggressive move up to try to get Justin Herbert his college LT, and it's obviously an enormous need. Again, I am not sure that Denver will be willing to move up the one spot, because I'm skeptical that Carolina would be willing to go back to 19 or 20 with Washington or Chicago. The Chargers part with #77 overall and a 2022 3rd rounder to move up.

9. Broncos
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota St.
Denver waits it out and lets Lance fall to them. I am toying with the idea of switching Lance to the 6th spot with Denver trading up, and Waddle here at #9 with Miami in this spot. Lance's O/U draft prop is 6.5, while Waddle's is 11.5.

10. Cowboys
Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama
The chalk pick.

11. Giants
Rashawn Slater, OT/G, Northwestern
There's been some late chatter than the Giants could take a pass rusher here, but I continue to think that this pick will be used on an offensive lineman or a wide receiver. If they have their hearts set on a pass rusher, they should try to execute a trade down, even though that would literally be a first for Dave Gettleman.

12. Eagles
Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
After seeing some strong Horn-to-Philly connections in the last several days, I don't think they would pass on him if he's available.

13. Panthers
DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
After the move down, Carolina eschews O-line help and takes the Heisman winner. This would qualify as quite a splash, and it's worth noting that Robby Anderson is a free agent at season's end. Still, this gives Darnold an impressive array of weapons, and with the extra 3rd Round pick from the Chargers, this means that Carolina now picks at #39, #73, and #77 on Day 2, and they can address O-line with 2 of those picks. At least, that's what I'd do.

14. Vikings
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC
A sensible pick, as Minnesota is a team that needs strong O-line play to execute what it wants to do on offense. Vera-Tucker steps into the void left by Riley Reiff's release, and offers guard/tackle versatility like last year's 2nd rounder, Ezra Cleveland.

15. Lions
Micah Parsons, LB, Penn St.
Detroit takes the best player on the board in Parsons after the move down with New England.

16. Cardinals
Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
Peter King mocked Greg Newsome in this spot, but noted that the Cards and Farley have had virtual meetings. Since Newsome himself comes with some injury concerns, and since I think Farley is the higher-upside player, Steve Keim takes a swing and opts for Farley. Kwity Paye or Jaelan Phillips are possibilities here as well, if not Farley or Newsome.

17. Raiders
Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma St.
A fit I continue to love and will continue to mock, even if Jenkins's O/U draft prop is 23.5.

18. Dolphins
Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
On Monday morning, Paye was -150 to be the first defensive lineman chosen. By Monday night, Phillips had become the slight -110 favorite. Phillips really is a total wild card due to his concussion history, but he's the best pass rusher in this class by a mile apart from that. I've seen this mocked by some strong draftniks and I'm going with it as well.

19. Washington Football Team
Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
I'm very tempted to go with Owusu-Koramoah, who has an O/U of 19.5, but Darrisaw's is actually lower at 16.5, and Washington doesn't have a young building block on the left side of the O-line. Darrisaw would change that.

20. Bears
Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
Word started to get out yesterday that most teams have Moore rated as the draft's WR4. If that's the case, Chicago could see him as an important weapon to the offense, as Andy Dalton needs a strong supporting cast in order to succeed. Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy are on the hotseat, so they could see Moore as both a win-now piece in the slot and as a building block for the future, as Allen Robinson is merely on the franchise tag. It helps Moore's stock that the recent history of Ole Miss receivers in the NFL is excellent.

21. Ravens
Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan
TRADE!
The Colts love to move down, and without a 3rd Round pick, are a prime candidate to do so. Meanwhile, the Ravens now have an extra 1st Round pick and have an acute need for pass rushers. They could have Paye as the top pass rusher, and part with #27 and #94 to make the move up.

22. Titans
Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
Another commonly-mocked pick by me, I'll stick with it for now. I could definitely see Newsome here, however.

23. Jets
Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern
Speaking of Newsome, I have him as a clear 1st Round talent despite the injury history, and the Jets' CB corps is paper-thin. They have another pick coming at #34, but I think the CB talent drops off a bit after Newsome. O-line and RB are other areas I could see addressed in this spot.

24. Steelers
Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
This one has really gained some steam in the past week or so.

25. Jaguars
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB/S, Notre Dame
This was an earlier pick I had in my mocks, and I'm going back to it. Urban Meyer would love him.

26. Browns
Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
The Browns could see Barmore as a great interior complement to Myles Garrett, and I think I've had him a little too low (like to the Bucs at 32) in previous mocks. I won't rule out someone like Ojulari or Rousseau here if the Browns want more of a pure pass rusher, though.

27. Bills
Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
TRADE!
The Colts trade down yet again, as Buffalo is in dire need for young pass rushers. Ojulari has a great motor and is a wonderful athlete. If Newsome happened to last to this spot, I think he'd make a lot of sense, too. Heck, it's possible that Farley could slide down this low.

28. Saints
Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
I feel pretty confident that Davis is going to go in the 1st Round, and some of the local Saints beat writers are calling this one. Fills a need, too. Once again, watch for Farley or Newsome here if they happen to slip.

29. Packers
Zaven Collins, OLB, Tulsa
Collins will add some toughness and physicality to the defense, which will not play as passively now that Mike Pettine was shown the door. This is yet another spot that would make sense for Farley or Newsome if they slipped, which is why I feel utterly confident that both go in the 1st Round.

30. Colts
Sam Cosmi, OT, Texas
The Colts came into the draft holding the 21st overall pick and no 3rd Round selection. Now they hold the 30th pick, picked up a 3rd Round choice at #94 overall, plus added a 2022 3rd rounder. This would be really nice work, as Indy has long-term needs at OT, edge rusher, and CB. With this pick, I have two LT prospects in mind. The first is the raw, but athletic and high-upside Sam Cosmi. The other is the higher-floor, technically refined, but lower-upside guy in Liam Eichenberg. Peter King noted that both GM Chris Ballard and coach Frank Reich were in attendance at Eichenberg's Pro Day. Still, that may have been as due diligence in case of a trade out of the 1st Round, or if Eichenberg was available in the area of their 2nd Round pick. Cosmi's comp is Kolton Miller, who worked out well. Athletic upside very often wins out.

31. Ravens
Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
With the extra 1st Rounder from the Orlando Brown trade, the Ravens take a solid scheme fit for their defense in Moehrig.

32. Buccaneers
Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn St.
The champs have the luxury of taking the best player available, and they could even trade down. I mentioned that athletic upside very often wins out with 1st Round choices, and Oweh is a 99th-percentile athlete. I think he hears his name called on Thursday.


--I have 6 OL going, which is just under the 6.5 draft prop, and both the Over and Under are -120 now. It's certainly possible this number could go over, but with such a deep class, teams could choose to wait until Rounds 2-3, similar to how WR is so deep now. It's also worth noting that KC now being out of the 1st Round took away a virtual guarantee for an O-line player.

--I would hammer Elijah Moore at -135 odds of being chosen in the 1st Round. Even if he got by the Bears at 20, teams that could conceivably pick a slot WR after #20 include Indy, Tennessee, the Jets, Jacksonville, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Green Bay. Heck, I wouldn't even rule out Tampa Bay.

--One specific prop bet I like, at 25-to-1 odds, is that the first 3 RB's drafted will be Harris/Williams/Etienne, in that order. I know most think that Etienne will go before Williams and that he may even go ahead of Harris. But if Harris is the only back that goes in the 1st, which is quite possible, then all you need is a team preferring Williams near the top of the 2nd Round as a better scheme fit. RB's are largely drafted based on scheme fit as opposed to overall quality. This is why Edwards-Helaire went as the first RB last year, as KC saw him as a perfect scheme fit over someone like Dobbins. Say Atlanta feels like it wants a RB at #35 overall. Etienne is more of a Reggie Bush type, while Williams can carry it between the tackles a bit better. Maybe the Falcons want a sturdier, carry-the-mail type who also has some explosiveness. That's all it would take. A $20 gamble on something like this would be a nice payoff if it hits.
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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:13 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:

--I have 6 OL going, which is just under the 6.5 draft prop, and both the Over and Under are -120 now. It's certainly possible this number could go over, but with such a deep class, teams could choose to wait until Rounds 2-3, similar to how WR is so deep now.



That's why I picked Barmore to be over-drafted, and why I think teams may not jump on interior offensive linemen until the late second or third. Barmore at least flashed for a handful of playoff games, and has size and a good first step. The next best DTs look like late second round or early third round picks.

I still think teams will hunt down promising developmental LTs early. It's an ongoing critical and expensive to fill position.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:25 am    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:

--I have 6 OL going, which is just under the 6.5 draft prop, and both the Over and Under are -120 now. It's certainly possible this number could go over, but with such a deep class, teams could choose to wait until Rounds 2-3, similar to how WR is so deep now.



That's why I picked Barmore to be over-drafted, and why I think teams may not jump on interior offensive linemen until the late second or third. Barmore at least flashed for a handful of playoff games, and has size and a good first step. The next best DTs look like late second round or early third round picks.

I still think teams will hunt down promising developmental LTs early. It's an ongoing critical and expensive to fill position.


It's interesting, this year's class is deep but there aren't a bunch of true, "he's a left tackle for sure" types. Sewell obviously is. But the #2 OL, Slater, may not be. The #3 guy, Vera-Tucker, is probably more of a guard. Darrisaw is a true left tackle. I think Sam Cosmi could be. But even a guy like Teven Jenkins, a dude I love, should be more of a right tackle or maybe even a guard at some point. Eichenberg could end up on the right side. Radunz might be a left tackle because his length is solid, but he's only 299 lbs. Spencer Brown is a 2nd-3rd Round prospect that is interesting because he's 6'8 and might be in that Jared Veldheer mold of tackle. Leatherwood probably ends up at guard. There are a lot of college tackles who seem destined to play guard in the NFL.
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