The 5 Year Revisit; 2008 NBA Draft.

 
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:52 pm    Post subject: The 5 Year Revisit; 2008 NBA Draft.

I came across this, looking up my draft predictions from 5 years ago.

Rereading them freaked me out, but this is when I definitely felt I was doing my best work with prospects and research.

http://forums.lakersground.net/togo/thread.php?topic_id=69659

Draft Review 1st round.

Draft Review 1st round.
Author: Mike _at_ LG
Posted: 06/27 10:49 PM

Notes and comments.

Name Height w/o Shoes Height w/shoes Weight Wingspan Standing Reach Body Fat No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Press Lane Agility 3/4 Court Sprint Class Rank Drafted

1. Chicago Derrick Rose 6-3 196 PG Memphis Fr.
Derrick Rose 6' 1.5" 6' 2.5" 196 6' 8" 8' 2.5" 4.6 34.5 40 10 11.69 3.05 NA 1

No brainer pick. Proven in competition. Elite athlete. PG play. Needs to improve defensively and change his J a little bit. Doesn't have Chris Paul's or Tony Parker's ability to get all the way to the cup. Seems to get stopped a lot at the 5'-7' mark. Needs to enhance his shot selection from midrange; less reliance on pure athleticism and 1 simple one on one move. Better ability to change direction a 2nd and 3rd time would make him a superstar.


2. Miami Michael Beasley 6-8 239 SF K.St. Fr.
Michael Beasley 6' 7" 6' 8.25" 239 7' 0.25" 8' 11" 7.7 30 35 19 11.06 3.24 NA 2

Another no brainer pick. Didn't always get along with his coach. Could use considerably more defensive intensity. Strikes me too much as a tweener, but has the skill level and strength to get by as an NBA PF. Has a knack for the ball and a Jamison like ability to finish in the paint. Not really a post player surprisingly; just a slasher, perimeter shooter, and crafty in the paint.


3. Minnesota OJ Mayo 6-4 200 SG USC Fr.
O.J. Mayo 6' 3.25" 6' 4.25" 200 6' 6" 8' 3.5" 6.3 30.5 41 7 11.04 3.14 NA 3

This may strike a few people odd, but I think he has among the highest star potential of the draft. The numbers aren't really superimpressive, but what will not show is his knack for one-on-one ability in combination with his body control to get the shots he wants. Ideal triangle PG. Where Rose may have some holes with his midrange game and one on one ability, Mayo doesn't. He's a good player across the board. Needs better defensive intensity, but never let his average wingspan become an issue.


4. Seattle Russell Westbrook 6-3 192 PG UCLA So.
Russell Westbrook 6' 2.25" 6' 3.5" 192 6' 7.75" 8' 4" 4.8 30 36.5 12 10.98 3.08 NA 11

Defensive PGs are important. Westbrook with outstanding PG size, lateral and directional speed with a winning team and a great attitude got him #4.

He's not a great one on one player. He's a player that'll run a halfcourt offense and find himself a perimeter jumpshot because he lacks in the unique PG ability to create lay up opportunities or midrange Js on every possession like Nash and Chris Paul, but in transition, he's a freight train with world class speed. He'll play a lot like Rondo, only, with better systematic PG IQ.

5. Memphis Kevin Love 6-9 255 PF UCLA Fr.
Kevin Love 6' 7.75" 6' 9.5" 255 6' 11.25" 8' 10" 12.9 29.5 35 18 11.17 3.22 NA 5

He is the average PF size. Right at 6'10" in shoes and borderline 7' wingspan, he's big and strong enough to compete against NBA starters. He will be outathleticized early on, but he has plenty of time to condition out his near 13% body fat. His hoop IQ is the highest of the draft with post skills, passing skills, ability to drive, box out, and surprising timing on his shotblocking. He should be a career double double time player, or, a PF version of Andrew Bogut, who isn't too bad himself.


6. New York Danilo Gallinari 6-9 220 SF Italy 1988


Gallinari was specifically picked by D'Antoni for a few attributes that D'Antoni specifies in his players. Size. Quickness. Triple threat player.

Gallinari is a bit of a project. His touch isn't too pure, but he does utilize good footwork to get to the basket from midrange. Defense will always be an issue (welcome to NYK), but he's either Machej Lampe or poor man's rookie year Nowitzki.


7. LA Clippers Eric Gordon 6-3 222 SG Indiana Fr.

Eric Gordon 6' 2" 6' 3.25" 222 6' 9" 8' 3" 8.2 32 40 15 10.81 3.01 NA 7

It's not so much that the Clippers lacked scoring, but rather a go-to-guy from the perimeter. Gordon landed perfectly onto their laps. What is scary is what great physical tools he has. Laterally quick, massive wingspan, fast, uberstrong. A shame he's a SG and not a PG like Baron Davis. But like Ben Gordon, he's great at creating and nailing Js from 18' and beyond and hitting with ease. What he could be great at that Ben Gordon may not be great at is drawing contact in the paint with some regularity and being a defensive hound, even at SG. It's not often you see brickhouse SG that's among the top 10 fastest laterally and 3/4 sprint in the entire NBA with those PreDraft results.


8. Milwaukee Joe Alexander 6-8 220 SF W.Virginia Jr.
Joe Alexander 6' 7.25" 6' 8.25" 220 6' 11.5" 8' 10" 5.8 32.5 38.5 24 11.33 2.99 NA 8

Anyone remember preinjury Tom Gugliotta? That's Alexander, just skinnier. Good SF size. Proven work ethic. Developing money midrange game. Shockingly fast for a SF. I vote this guy most likely to burn himself out midseason from working so hard the previous 2, but if he keeps it up, he'll be a stud among the diminishing traditional SFs in the L.


9. Charlotte DJ Augustin 5-11 172 PG Texas So.


DJ Augustin 5' 10" 5' 11.5" 172 6' 3.5" 7' 10.5" 8.1 28.5 35 2 11.27 3.07 NA 9

Short. Good wingspan. Better standing reach than Chris Paul. Quick and light on his feet and hits a lot of high degree of difficulity shots. Gets all the way to the basket better than Derrick Rose and a better passer. Proven leader. Unfortunately, where Jameer gets away with his height because he's a very strong PG, Augustin may become Brevin Knight 2.0. Better shooter. Better passer.

10. New Jersey Brook Lopez 7-0 258 C Stanford So.

Brook Lopez 6' 11.25" 7' 0.5" 256 7' 5.5" 9' 5" 6.3 27.5 30.5 7 12.77 3.57 NA 9

NBA center size. Average athlete. Has good IQ but lacks in tremendous body control, unlike Duncan. Fulfilling his potential, he should be a 13ppg 7rpg 1.5bpg kind of player, which isn't too bad for a modern NBA center with a good degree of low and high post skills. He'd be surprisingly good in the triangle too. Strength would help him be a far better positional post defender.


11. *Portland Jerryd Bayless 6-3 204 SG Ariz. Fr.
Jerryd Bayless 6' 1.75" 6' 3" 204 6' 3.5" 8' 1" 4.7 31 38 10 11.26 3.07 NA 4

Don't ask for D or playmaking. He's a straight up 1 on 1 gunner. Utilizes footspeed and dribble to create space like Iverson, for a pull up J. Not a standstill type gunner like Eddie House. Got drafted right where should have. When he's on, he can have defenses on their heels.

12. Sacramento Jason Thompson 6-10 245 PF Rider Sr.


Comes from a smaller school but is surprisingly tough in the paint. Great NBA PF size, very good athlete, good hands, active in the paint. Really needs to work on his perimeter J, but has surprising ability to attack from the high post and be active on the glass. Basic post moves with the jumphook and spin move. Poor man's Stoudemire.


13. *Indiana Brandon Rush 6-6 210 SF Kansas Jr.
Brandon Rush - 2005 6' 5" 6' 6.5" 211 6' 11.25" 8' 8.5"

Easily one of my favorite players of the draft. James Posey with Battier-like hoop IQ and Odom-like unselfishness. Weak handle. Great 3pt. spot up shooter. Not a one-on-one player. Defends 4 positions at the NCAA level, should be 2 positions at the NBA level. I'd place him at SG despite the weak handle, just for the spot up shooting and off-the-ball movement. Great 2-way player who could use some strength and would fit in very well with 2 primary options ahead of him.


14. Golden St. Anthony Randolph 6-10 197 SF LSU Fr.

Anthony Randolph 6' 9" 6' 10.25" 197 7' 3" 9' 1" 4.7 29 35 7 11.86 3.26 NA 12

One of my other favs. Odom-like guard skill with proven perimeter touch. Triple threat player. Weight is a major concern. It was also for Durant, but Durant is ROY. Randolph doesn't have Durant's range, but he is far better at attack the basket and changing directions. Will have to use his length against SFs and may even see time at SG. He's that skilled/gifted.

15. *Phoenix Robin Lopez 7-0 255 C Stanford So.

Anderson Varajao because of his hair. Doesn't have his twin's skill level in the post, but provides more energy and hustle on the floor to compensate.

16. Philadelphia Marreese Speights 6-10 250 PF Fla. So.


Has all the physical tools to be a starting PF. Great size, athleticism, wingspan. Not a great one on one player. Needs to improve on basics.

Speights is Al Horford, without the polish.

17. *Indiana Roy Hibbert 7-2 278 C Georgetown Sr.


Great skilled bigman with great size and average athleticism. I find it ironic that Hibbert is almost Rik Smits all over again, but at least Hibbert is willing to play the paint. Won't be an exstatic shotblocker or killer rebounder, but could definitely be a productive NBA starter. Conditioning is a must and durability for players his size is a concern.

18. Washington JaVale McGee 7-0 241 C Nevada So.

JaVale McGee 6' 11" 7' 0" 241 7' 6" 9' 6.5" 5.3 27 32.5 7 12.75 3.25 NA 19

Here's your Bynum clone. Those are the numbers I would imagine Bynum getting had he tested in NBA predraft. Difference? McGee had 2 years at the NCAA level, but didn't dominate like he was supposed to. Either he's Olowakandi, in the sense that he has great physical tools and never pans out, or Bynum, who works his ass off and will make it.

If you read the weaknesses at the DraftEx profile, Bynum would've had 3/4 of that list nailed as well. Thank goodness he's not there anymore.

He is a workout warrior with those measurements and good numbers for a big center. The question is, can he build the skill level? He's just 20.

19. Cleveland JJ Hickson 6-8 235 PF NC State Fr.


Brandon Bass is a hell of a player and Hickson plays similar. Physical specimen, strong, killer athlete, finishes through contact. Limited skill level but can finish in the paint. Sometimes, that's all you need.


20. *Charlotte Alexis Ajinca 7-0 216 PF/C France 1988


Read: Near 7'9" wingspan.

Very good athlete. Too skinny and reminds a few of Pau without the great post moves. He doesn't like to bang in the paint; soft rebounder for all that size and athleticism, but is aggressive attacking the basket. Longer and skinnier Channing Frye.

21. *New Jersey Ryan Anderson 6-10 235 PF Cal. So.


3 words. Washington Wizards Pecherov. He should be happy to be in the 1st round.

22. Orlando Courtney Lee 6-5 200 SG W.Kentucky Sr.


Strong, solid SG that's average across the board. Smooth player. Can shoot from distance, can drive effectively, can pass fairly well, etc. Nothing outstanding, but does have a great sense of skill level and hoop IQ to enhance his physical tools as an athlete.

23. Utah Kosta Koufos 7-0 252 C Ohio St. Fr.

Overrated all year and finally landed where he was supposed to. Good set of low and high post skills. Good C size, though lacking a bit on post base. More of a "guard-oriented" C with his ability to shoot and put the ball on the floor. Plays a lot like Kristic but not as tough and better perimeter range.

24. *Seattle Serge Ibaka 6-10 228 PF Congo 1989


Project player with all the physical and athletic tools to be an All-Star. When it comes to players like this, the words that come to mind are aggression level and work ethic. If those two things are in place, he's a bonafide All-Star. Freak athlete. Explosive. Guard quick. Great vert. Great wingspan. Finishes with authority. Limited skill level. Barely puts the ball on the floor. Ability to incorporate the team concept with his game reminds me a lot of Shawn Kemp; raw player with raw athletic skills made him foul prone and turnover prone, usually among the worst in the league. Would be a steal if he works hard and develops a degree of hoop IQ.



25. Houston Nicolas Batum 6-8 210 SG France 1988


Pending his health issues, should've been a lottery pick. Not a great one-on-one player, but very good across the board. Size, athleticism, passing, perimeter shooting, slashing, defensive potential. Euro-Pippen. Work ethic and mental toughness will define his NBA career, but if he ever gets it together, Houston will be scary.

26. San Antonio George Hill 6-2 180 PG IUPUI Jr.

George Hill 6' 1.25" 6' 2.5" 181 6' 9" 8' 1.5" 3 34 37.5 9 12.2 3.07 NA No

Yes, the Spurs stole the Lakers pick of choice again. Chris Duhon without the elite lateral quickness. Excellent wingspan will make him an effective man-defender at the NBA level. Can fly up and down the court. A system PG with ability to draw fouls and hit perimeter Js. Can overdribble at times and stop the flow of ball movement, but it's easy to see the Lakers' interest in him. Not a great one-on-one player but a great #4 option who'll knockdown perimeter Js and provide intangibles every team needs. Leadership, poise, positive demeanor.



27. *Portland Darrell Arthur 6-9 216 PF Kansas So.

Darrell Arthur 6' 7.5" 6' 8.5" 216 6' 10.75" 8' 11" 7.3 28.5 30 12 12.18 3.14 NA 18

Steal pick. He's got all the PF moves. Midrange J, drop step, jumphook, turnaround J, etc. Played like Eddie Griffin as an elite HS player and carried it to the NCAA level. Showed that his lack of strength didn't hurt him too much. Solid defender. Strength makes him Juwan Howard with better hoop IQ. Otherwise, he's Randolph Morris.


28. *Memphis Donte Greene 6-9 221 SF Syr. Fr.

Donte Green 6' 8.25" 6' 9" 221 6' 10" 9' 0" 7.6 27.5 31.5 2 11.21 3.2 NA 14

All this talk of freak athlete during the NCAA season didn't show in the workouts. Average athlete at best with average SF size. Remember Darius Rice? Rice settled for perimeter Js and loved to dunk. Durant is the player Darius Rice should've been. Donte Greene plays similar to both. I'm not impressed with the pick, but could be a solid NBA SF provided he specializes in perimeter shooting.

29. DJ White 6-8 242 PF Indiana Sr.

Another guy in Jason Maxiell mode. Dumars likes tough, strong, hustling PFs with soft touches and White fits the mold.

30. Boston JR Giddens 6-5 208 SG New Mexico Sr.

J.R. Giddens 6' 4" 6' 4.75" 208 6' 11.25" 8' 8" 5.4 NA NA 10 NA NA NA 50

Minimal risk pick for the Celtics. World class athlete. Finishes. Shoots Js. Rebounds. Plays tough D. He's this year's Shannon Brown, only bigger with a few more skills. Workout warrior.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:44 am    Post subject:

pretty close
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 22, 2013 12:02 pm    Post subject:

hell yaeh.

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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 4:08 pm    Post subject:

What a draft.
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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 9:28 pm    Post subject:

I think my bias shows with Batum, Ibaka, and Hill.
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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2013 6:22 pm    Post subject:

That was really accurate as far as predictions and breakdowns. Great draft, good write up Mike.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:30 pm    Post subject:

Damn, most analysts look stupid 5 years later but this is pretty good. Even with high picks like Beasley, you pointed out his flaws. That scouting report could have been written yesterday.

Westbrook too. His halfcourt games = pull up J's.

Way to not go for the Joe Alexander hype.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:31 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
I think my bias shows with Batum, Ibaka, and Hill.


Bias in a good way? Because you had a good feel for how good those guys actually turned out
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:33 pm    Post subject:

If you re-do this draft I think you go:

Rose
Westbrook
Love

After that, it's hard to say with Brook Lopez, OJ Mayo, Beasley, Ibaka, Hibbert
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 8:25 pm    Post subject:

24KaratGold wrote:
If you re-do this draft I think you go:

Rose
Westbrook
Love

After that, it's hard to say with Brook Lopez, OJ Mayo, Beasley, Ibaka, Hibbert


1. Derrick Rose
2. Russell Westbrook
3. Kevin Love
4. Roy Hibbert
5. Nicholas Batum
6. Brook Lopez
7. Serge Ibaka
8. Eric Gordon
9. Danilo Galinari
10. OJ Mayo

I think that's your Top 10 from this draft.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 10:16 pm    Post subject:

GoldenThroat wrote:
24KaratGold wrote:
If you re-do this draft I think you go:

Rose
Westbrook
Love

After that, it's hard to say with Brook Lopez, OJ Mayo, Beasley, Ibaka, Hibbert


1. Derrick Rose
2. Russell Westbrook
3. Kevin Love
4. Roy Hibbert
5. Nicholas Batum
6. Brook Lopez
7. Serge Ibaka
8. Eric Gordon
9. Danilo Galinari
10. OJ Mayo

I think that's your Top 10 from this draft.


No coincidence that the steal in this group based on actual pick location belongs to that little (bleep) presti. Good thing he doesn't manage well, because the guy is a draft savant.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:06 am    Post subject:

Wow, Mike, you were absolutely spot on with Ibaka.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 7:59 am    Post subject:

AY2043 wrote:
Wow, Mike, you were absolutely spot on with Ibaka.


He's not developing as quickly as I thought he would. Thought he'd be a killer high post PF by now.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:54 pm    Post subject:

24 wrote:
GoldenThroat wrote:
24KaratGold wrote:
If you re-do this draft I think you go:

Rose
Westbrook
Love

After that, it's hard to say with Brook Lopez, OJ Mayo, Beasley, Ibaka, Hibbert


1. Derrick Rose
2. Russell Westbrook
3. Kevin Love
4. Roy Hibbert
5. Nicholas Batum
6. Brook Lopez
7. Serge Ibaka
8. Eric Gordon
9. Danilo Galinari
10. OJ Mayo

I think that's your Top 10 from this draft.


No coincidence that the steal in this group based on actual pick location belongs to that little (bleep) presti. Good thing he doesn't manage well, because the guy is a draft savant.


Even the Westbrook pick is impressive in hindsight. He came from out of nowhere to land at #4, and he still outperformed his draft placement.

I think Presti's limited by his situation, personally. He had to make choices that he wouldn't have had to make in a bigger market.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:09 pm    Post subject:

Westbrook killed it in workouts... athletic testing as well.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:52 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Westbrook killed it in workouts... athletic testing as well.


No doubt, but there's no doubt that he was picked at #4 based on projection rather than production. He had a meteoric rise to #4. The only guy that comes to mind that jumped up as much as he did was Antonio Daniels.
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 2:19 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
AY2043 wrote:
Wow, Mike, you were absolutely spot on with Ibaka.


He's not developing as quickly as I thought he would. Thought he'd be a killer high post PF by now.


Probably because of the high usage rate of Westbrook and KD.

Serge's ugly 15 footers still frustrate me to no end everytime we play OKC
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 11:19 pm    Post subject:

well done @mike. do you think the 2014 draft will be similar, better or worst than this 2008 draft?
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 8:27 am    Post subject:

malicious_intent wrote:
well done @mike. do you think the 2014 draft will be similar, better or worst than this 2008 draft?


More Top heavy. Equal depth.
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 4:09 pm    Post subject:

Looking back, that has to be one of the deepest drafts in NBA history. About 20 or so of the players drafted have all been steady starters during their careers. When you have Ibaka, Batum and Hill going 24, 25 and 26, respectively, that ain't bad.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2014 3:07 am    Post subject:

I think top 3 would be now Rose, Love and Westbrook.
Don't know the order though. Love being a big guy, I think he could be #2 or even #1.
Ibaka jumps easily in top 10.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 10, 2015 9:10 am    Post subject:

Mike, I'd love to see your five year revisit of the 2010 draft, one that seems unusual in the sense of:

- a lot of wings selected very early and too high (first eight): Turner, Johnson, Aminu
- the three best wings not gauged as well: George, Hayward, Vasquez
- the three big men selected in the first seven picks each look to have long, productive NBA careers: Monroe, Favors, Cousins
- of the first twenty picks, only one guy didn't last all five seasons (Anderson, #20) and even he made four years. Rookie contract terms seem to ensure four year stays.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2015 7:12 am    Post subject:

Wilkes52 wrote:
Mike, I'd love to see your five year revisit of the 2010 draft, one that seems unusual in the sense of:

- a lot of wings selected very early and too high (first eight): Turner, Johnson, Aminu
- the three best wings not gauged as well: George, Hayward, Vasquez
- the three big men selected in the first seven picks each look to have long, productive NBA careers: Monroe, Favors, Cousins
- of the first twenty picks, only one guy didn't last all five seasons (Anderson, #20) and even he made four years. Rookie contract terms seem to ensure four year stays.


I don't think I did a full mock like I did with the 2008 draft, but I can absolutely recall why certain players went to specific spots in that draft.
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