this is a bad move by Roberts (or front office) sticking with Jensen. we need time for the new closer (in this case most likely Kelly) to get into the closer mentality heading into the post season. not wait until couple games into the post season to make the switch.
Joined: 24 Sep 2001 Posts: 8188 Location: Eagle Rock
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:04 pm Post subject:
SGV-Laker fan wrote:
this is a bad move by Roberts (or front office) sticking with Jensen. we need time for the new closer (in this case most likely Kelly) to get into the closer mentality heading into the post season. not wait until couple games into the post season to make the switch.
Joined: 25 Apr 2015 Posts: 31789 Location: Anaheim, CA
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 4:07 pm Post subject:
Mark_in_Tulsa wrote:
Look we're going to the playoffs with HF through the NL if not all of the league.
We have the luxury of letting KJ work through this. What do we have to lose?
If he fixes things then great, if not we didn't kill our other arms in the pen in the process before the playoffs.
Having KJ be just an above avg closer and cost us a few games during the reg. season isn't hurting anything. It's not like we're fighting for a spot.
When Kobe had a cold streak did we stop going through him? No we just worked through it.
KJ is still one of the best closers in the game. Yeah he's not as sharp as he was but it's not like we're losing more than winning when he's out there.
Now if he's still not the best option in the playoffs then yeah I wouldn't necessarily close with him. But right now we have the luxury of letting him work through it.
No, he isn't. That's the thing. It's not just the blown saves. I realize that great closers can blow saves. It's that his STUFF just isn't there. Not having good stuff means you're more likely to give up hard contact. You don't want that with your closer, who will be pitching in small sample sizes.
His FIP was over 4 last year and he allowed 13 homers last season. This year he's on pace to allow 11 homers. His once-dominant cutter, the pitch that he basically relies on all the time, isn't good anymore, and it leaves him susceptible to hard contact. I've watched this going back to last year. He's simply not our best option anymore. It's not about how good of a closer he is relative to the rest of the league. I don't care about that. The Dodgers can and should do better. We have better in-house options as it stands right now. You're right in that it doesn't really matter right now what we do, as we're going to coast to the postseason, but if he's the closer in the postseason based on how he's throwing right now, we are making a terrible, terrible mistake.
Joined: 26 Apr 2004 Posts: 17197 Location: In a no-ship
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:16 pm Post subject:
Taken from the post-game reddit thread yesterday:
Quote:
Kenley Jansen this season
4/15 tie... gives it up, dodgers win on 2Run HR He gets the W
4/21 came in bottom 8 with 2 on and 2 out and gave up a meatball 3 Run HR to Eric Thames, Bellinger homers off Hader dodgers go up and win 6-5 he gets the W
5/5 Renfroe GS dodgers were winning 4-5,lost 8-5 he gave up 3 singles then the HR
6/15 Blows it against the Cubs Rizzo 2 run shot, dodgers lose 2-1
7/3 comes into 3-3 game, gives up Go ahead solo HR in 9th, Dodgers tie in the bottom 9th and walk it off in the 10th
7/16 blows it against the phils gives up 3 runs in 9th
8/9 blows it against Dbags 2 runs in 9th.. dodgers lose in 11
8/21 Gives up 9th inning homerun to Blue Jays, Dodgers walk it off 2-1
Almost blows
4/2 comes into 6-2 game with two runners on no outs, game ends 6-5
4/25 gives up 9th inning HR to almora .. Dodgers win 2-1
6/16 Near blown save against Cubs... Play at plate keeps dodgers ahead, next play Verdugo makes great play to save the game Dodgers win 3-2
6/20 vs Giants gives up 2 Runs(1 inherited runner) in 9th after sborz gave up 2 dodgers win 9-8
7/26 Near blown save, leaves runners on 2nd and 3rd after already giving up 1 run dodgers win 4-2
13/48 bad outings that’s 27%
Add his bad outing yesterday, and that’s looking pretty terrible.
Props to Maeda for keeping us in the game last night against a young and hungry lineup. He's definitely the most inconsistent pitcher in our rotation, but at least he can still churn out some quality starts every once in a while. Hopefully his transition to the bullpen this year is more successful than last year. _________________
^ That's awesome. I'm excited for this series. I was gonna go but figured with the prices I'm better off using that $ for a NLCS or WS game (fingers crossed).
Joined: 26 Apr 2004 Posts: 17197 Location: In a no-ship
Posted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:56 pm Post subject:
Really interesting AMA from a baseball data engineer. Some Dodgers nuggets:
Quote:
Are some teams seen as being especially ahead of or behind the curve, or is it a relatively fair playing field at this point?
Still a huge gap between the top 3-4 teams and the bottom 3-4. The analytics gap is closing rapidly but the high end teams spend so much money on player development systems. Be it high speed cameras, motion capture, or bat tracking. The less analytical teams wont spend the money on those things. Every team now has an analytical team, the Dodgers/Yankees are around 30 people. My team was 18 people when I left, 3 when I started.
Quote:
How far ahead of the rest of the MLB are the Astros in terms of their analytics department and player development system.
They're very good, they are not that far ahead however. Dodgers are there and the looming giant is the Yankees. The Astros pitchers spin rates differ quite a bit while pitching at home vs pitching at opposing ballparks, i wonder why....
Quote:
How much difference is there between publicly available information on sites like Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball and the information available to the teams? I’m guessing you can’t disclose what’s different, but are the teams still well ahead of the public data?
The difference between public and team data isn't that large for radar data. But for biometric data, that is exclusively done by teams and never leaves their network.
Heres a rough breakdown:
MLB - data is the same but teams have access to the entire play of radar data, not just the pitch/hit tracking. So they can evaluate their defensive positioning, reaction times etc.
minors - most teams just have hit/pitch tracking available from Trackman which isn't available on Brooks I dont think. Dodgers/Astros have more developed baseball systems to better develop their players though, much of it is derived from their team exclusive biometric data.
college - Most D1 schools now have a trackman system, this data isn't available to public.
Teams are pretty well ahead of public data, more importantly they know what to do with it. They employ so many analysts that can build models to develop a run expectation for every single pitch.
Joined: 02 Jan 2011 Posts: 36081 Location: 502 Bad Gateway
Posted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:11 pm Post subject:
DuncanIdaho wrote:
Taken from the post-game reddit thread yesterday:
Quote:
Kenley Jansen this season
4/15 tie... gives it up, dodgers win on 2Run HR He gets the W
4/21 came in bottom 8 with 2 on and 2 out and gave up a meatball 3 Run HR to Eric Thames, Bellinger homers off Hader dodgers go up and win 6-5 he gets the W
5/5 Renfroe GS dodgers were winning 4-5,lost 8-5 he gave up 3 singles then the HR
6/15 Blows it against the Cubs Rizzo 2 run shot, dodgers lose 2-1
7/3 comes into 3-3 game, gives up Go ahead solo HR in 9th, Dodgers tie in the bottom 9th and walk it off in the 10th
7/16 blows it against the phils gives up 3 runs in 9th
8/9 blows it against Dbags 2 runs in 9th.. dodgers lose in 11
8/21 Gives up 9th inning homerun to Blue Jays, Dodgers walk it off 2-1
Almost blows
4/2 comes into 6-2 game with two runners on no outs, game ends 6-5
4/25 gives up 9th inning HR to almora .. Dodgers win 2-1
6/16 Near blown save against Cubs... Play at plate keeps dodgers ahead, next play Verdugo makes great play to save the game Dodgers win 3-2
6/20 vs Giants gives up 2 Runs(1 inherited runner) in 9th after sborz gave up 2 dodgers win 9-8
7/26 Near blown save, leaves runners on 2nd and 3rd after already giving up 1 run dodgers win 4-2
13/48 bad outings that’s 27%
Add his bad outing yesterday, and that’s looking pretty terrible.
The highlights here won't show it, but the ump completely bailed him out on that one. Two high fastballs were called strikes that weren't close before Kendrick was basically forced to pull the trigger.
Joined: 25 Apr 2015 Posts: 31789 Location: Anaheim, CA
Posted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:56 am Post subject:
leor_77 wrote:
Paxton has a 4.5 ERA, yet he's working us.
Having had him all year in one of my fantasy leagues, it's been a rough ride, for sure. He was hurt for a time (as usual) and he had some absolutely brutal outings. That said, he's now won each of his last 5 starts, with a quality start in 4 of those outings. And across those 30.1 innings, he's struck out 35 batters and he posted a WHIP of under 1 in 4 of those 5 outings.
When he's on, he's very, very good. I'm actually surprised that I didn't drop him, since I dropped most of my underperforming players earlier, but for some reason I hung onto him.
For more than 40 years, relievers had outperformed starters on a per-inning basis. But this season, through Wednesday, starters’ ERA is 0.02 points lower than that of relievers. Starters have not posted an ERA superior to that of relievers since 1973, but that gap has shrunk rapidly, and this year it could be potentially erased. As recently as 2012, the overall ERA of relievers was half a run better than that of starting pitchers.
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