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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:24 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
^^^I 100% agree with Brown going for it there because of the wide disparity in talent on the rosters. Clemson is significantly better, and I like my chances of winning with the 2 points than trying to win in Overtime. Usually the rule is go for the tie at home, and the win on the road.....but I think these teams were not close in talent and I am trying to steal a win there. Now the play was beyond stupid trying to get to the edge on that Clemson defense with that QB.....that play was dead on arrival.

Not sure I follow the 1:17 left being a factor....either way Clemson was going to get the ball back and have a chance to win it.


Because you don't guarantee the win if you get it, but you come close to guaranteeing the loss if you miss it (with only an onside kick as a last chance). There's a big difference in win probability there when the other team still has plenty of time to just kick a FG and beat you. If there are under 30 seconds left, the opponent's chances to still beat you are drastically lowered. In other words, the risk may not outweigh the reward. If it's basically the end of the game, I get it. I just don't like it when there's too much time left. It's not like Clemson was running all over them, either. While I agree that they obviously have better players, there's also something to the idea that maybe Clemson feels the pressure of an OT period.

I would've gone for the 2 with barely any time left. Not with 1:17 left.


Last edited by ChickenStu on Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:24 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Rice takes a 14-7 lead into halftime against Louisiana Tech.


headed to OT....tied @ 17


and Rice loses in OT 23-17 to LA Tech.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:28 pm    Post subject:

Steve007 wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Steve007 wrote:
^That’s a good point. I’ve had Direct TV for years and still don’t have the PAC-12 channel. I have an easier time finding an Alabama game on tv than a USC/UCLA game.

And to make things worse, Alabama will be in the playoff and probably the SEC Championship Game. USC/UCLA will play in what? The Sun Bowl? Las Vegas Bowl? Will they even play in a bowl game?


I guess everyone is different, but I honestly believe if I am a 5 Star recruit right now....I want offers from Clemson, 'Bama and even USC.....but I am going to WVU....because as a kid I was imitating Pat White and Tavon Austin in the back yard (if I was 18 years old now.....I was Major Harris in my back yard).

I am not sure playing at 'Bama or Clemson really increases the chances to get drafted these days. If you are good, the NFL will find you. They send more to the NFL because they have more talent.


Some kids will imitate the local heroes, but USC/UCLA haven’t had many of them recently and kids can also imitate players from Alabama, Clemson, etc. even if they don’t live near those schools.

USC lost again and will fall to 3-3 if they lose the next game to Notre Dame. That will probably be followed by more losses. This is following a 5-7 season. I remember after an embarrassing early season loss when Lane Kiffin was coaching, one of the USC defensive players that was an elite recruit yelled out “I didn’t come here for this (bleep)!” Recruits that go to Alabama and Clemson haven’t had the problem of constant losing in recent years.

Of course, some local recruits will go to USC/UCLA to be close to home, but the losing has to be a huge turnoff for some people.


Don't think Clay Helton will make it thru next season. I know the school president is going thru a house cleaning and I wouldn't be surprised if he's next. Yeah, they will probably make a hefty payout to him to go away, but they have a lot of rich alumni and I'm not sure they have the stomach to see another crappy season.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:32 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
adkindo wrote:
^^^I 100% agree with Brown going for it there because of the wide disparity in talent on the rosters. Clemson is significantly better, and I like my chances of winning with the 2 points than trying to win in Overtime. Usually the rule is go for the tie at home, and the win on the road.....but I think these teams were not close in talent and I am trying to steal a win there. Now the play was beyond stupid trying to get to the edge on that Clemson defense with that QB.....that play was dead on arrival.

Not sure I follow the 1:17 left being a factor....either way Clemson was going to get the ball back and have a chance to win it.


Because you don't guarantee the win if you get it, but you come close to guaranteeing the loss if you miss it (with only an onside kick as a last chance). There's a big difference in win probability there when the other team still has plenty of time to just kick a FG and beat you. If there are under 30 seconds left, the opponent's chances to still beat you are drastically lowered. In other words, the risk may not outweigh the reward. If it's basically the end of the game, I get it. I just don't like it when there's too much time left. It's not like Clemson was running all over them, either. While I agree that they obviously have better players, there's also something to the idea that maybe Clemson feels the pressure of an OT period.

I would've gone for the 2 with barely any time left. Not with 1:17 left.


that is why I do not think the 1:17 is a factor because you also do not guarantee a tie/OT if you kick it. No matter what you decide to do, if successful, there is no guarantee that Clemson will not score again. I think we have disagreed on this before....just a difference in philosophy. I am going for 2 everytime unless I clearly feel I have the better team. I am speculating, but my guess is 538 or FPI would have UNC's odds at winning that game if it goes to overtime at less than 25%.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:36 pm    Post subject:

dang, Oregon State came back on Stanford....looks like Stanford may escape with a FG to win...
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2019 6:41 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
adkindo wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Rice takes a 14-7 lead into halftime against Louisiana Tech.


headed to OT....tied @ 17


and Rice loses in OT 23-17 to LA Tech.


Whew. That could have ruined our ranking.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:13 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
adkindo wrote:
^^^I 100% agree with Brown going for it there because of the wide disparity in talent on the rosters. Clemson is significantly better, and I like my chances of winning with the 2 points than trying to win in Overtime. Usually the rule is go for the tie at home, and the win on the road.....but I think these teams were not close in talent and I am trying to steal a win there. Now the play was beyond stupid trying to get to the edge on that Clemson defense with that QB.....that play was dead on arrival.

Not sure I follow the 1:17 left being a factor....either way Clemson was going to get the ball back and have a chance to win it.


Because you don't guarantee the win if you get it, but you come close to guaranteeing the loss if you miss it (with only an onside kick as a last chance). There's a big difference in win probability there when the other team still has plenty of time to just kick a FG and beat you. If there are under 30 seconds left, the opponent's chances to still beat you are drastically lowered. In other words, the risk may not outweigh the reward. If it's basically the end of the game, I get it. I just don't like it when there's too much time left. It's not like Clemson was running all over them, either. While I agree that they obviously have better players, there's also something to the idea that maybe Clemson feels the pressure of an OT period.

I would've gone for the 2 with barely any time left. Not with 1:17 left.


that is why I do not think the 1:17 is a factor because you also do not guarantee a tie/OT if you kick it. No matter what you decide to do, if successful, there is no guarantee that Clemson will not score again. I think we have disagreed on this before....just a difference in philosophy. I am going for 2 everytime unless I clearly feel I have the better team. I am speculating, but my guess is 538 or FPI would have UNC's odds at winning that game if it goes to overtime at less than 25%.


Right. It's not illogical, but I just can't get behind it. I'm all for going for it when it's going to decide the game for sure. If not, I'm not inclined to risk everything, because even in the best-case scenario you aren't guaranteed anything. I'm all for "all or nothing" scenarios, but not "maybe we get it all but it's gonna be nothing if we fail."
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:56 pm    Post subject:

UCLA is down 13-10 at Arizona, late in the 3rd. Tate has not played for U of A, while the UCLA offense has been stuck in the mud after their opening drive. It appears last week's outburst was a one-week wonder.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:03 pm    Post subject:

Since I'm such an amazing hex, UCLA just scored a TD on its latest drive. Bruins up 17-13 at the end of the 3rd quarter.
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Steve007
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:55 pm    Post subject:

I guess a 3 point deficit was too much for UCLA to overcome.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:56 pm    Post subject:

And one of my theories about football comes to pass again. You never, ever, ever should actually take a practice kick when the defense calls timeout just before a FG attempt. They can never seem to repeat the same kick, from the same spot, in a game situation twice in a row. It's like you just can't repeat the mechanics twice in a row. It happens so often it's crazy. UCLA's kicker just did it when Arizona called timeout, and of course he missed it when it matters. Zona won, 20-17.
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Steve007
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 1:53 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
And one of my theories about football comes to pass again. You never, ever, ever should actually take a practice kick when the defense calls timeout just before a FG attempt. They can never seem to repeat the same kick, from the same spot, in a game situation twice in a row. It's like you just can't repeat the mechanics twice in a row. It happens so often it's crazy. UCLA's kicker just did it when Arizona called timeout, and of course he missed it when it matters. Zona won, 20-17.


I used to think teams should call timeout earlier so kickers wouldn’t be able to take practice kicks. But I’ve noticed the same thing happen so often that I changed my mind. It’s amazing the number of times the guy makes it, has to do it again and then misses the second time. I’d like to see some numbers on that.

If they do take a practice kick, maybe they should miss on purpose. Seems like the guys that miss are more accurate the second time around.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:22 am    Post subject:

Given that Leach recruited these kids and then coached them, what does this really say?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27725266/mike-leach-rips-fat-dumb-washington-state-players-loss
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:47 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
adkindo wrote:
adkindo wrote:
adkindo wrote:
Rice takes a 14-7 lead into halftime against Louisiana Tech.


headed to OT....tied @ 17


and Rice loses in OT 23-17 to LA Tech.


Whew. That could have ruined our ranking.


I know it is a cliche, but they just do not know how to win yet. In the end, you can just see that they do not have confidence that his one will end differently.
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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 9:54 am    Post subject:

^^^^

Or maybe they're just not very good, but capable of being a real pain in the neck for better teams.

On a different note: I watched some of the Hawaii-Nevada game last night. Hawaii just spanked Nevada. But the weird part was realizing (1) Ryan Freaking Leaf was the color commentator, and (2) he was a lot better than the people doing the UCLA game, which was on the other channel at the time. This is a guy who was in prison less than five years ago. Back then, if someone said, "I bet he becomes a football analyst on ESPN after he gets out of prison," people would have thought it was a joke.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 11:50 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
^^^^
Or maybe they're just not very good, but capable of being a real pain in the neck for better teams.


it is all relative...of course they are not very good when compared to LSU...but they are playing better football than they did last year.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 3:12 pm    Post subject:

#11 Texas comes to West Virginia this weekend as 10.5 point favorites. The last time a team came into Milan Puskar Stadium as a double digit favorite was in 2013. It was #11 Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State did not cover that day....they did not even with the game.
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LakerLanny
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 4:38 pm    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
^^^^

Or maybe they're just not very good, but capable of being a real pain in the neck for better teams.

On a different note: I watched some of the Hawaii-Nevada game last night. Hawaii just spanked Nevada. But the weird part was realizing (1) Ryan Freaking Leaf was the color commentator, and (2) he was a lot better than the people doing the UCLA game, which was on the other channel at the time. This is a guy who was in prison less than five years ago. Back then, if someone said, "I bet he becomes a football analyst on ESPN after he gets out of prison," people would have thought it was a joke.


I posted in his thread awhile back (yes, there is/was a Ryan Leaf thread on LG) that he was a much better analyst than others I often hear. I think he could have a real future there.

I am hopeful that he can stay clean and realize his potential and be happy, he has been through quite a lot and is a real success story.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2019 9:59 am    Post subject:

an interesting article on ESPN about something I have been recently questioning in regards to the SEC scheduling. It is not a perfect solution, but one that is better than what is taking place now where teams claim the same conference and play each other less than once a decade.

Quote:
You've probably heard by now that Auburn and Florida, who meet in Gainesville on Saturday, have played each other only once in the past 11 seasons.


Quote:
This barely qualifies as a conference.

Florida head coach Dan Mullen said as much last week, noting that Florida has more games scheduled against USF than Mississippi State. "I think it's an injustice for the kids. We should mix those games up, and you should play more teams from the West and get the opportunity to play more SEC games." When you have 14 SEC teams playing eight-game conference schedules, and when seven of those eight spots are occupied by the same seven teams every year (six division foes, plus one permanent inter-division rival), you're barely going to play the other six teams.


LINK

The divisions made some sense when there was an auto bid on the line to a BCS game, but now that everything is focused on the playoff and there is not playoff automatic qualifier, the divisions need to go.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2019 4:48 pm    Post subject:

Cincinnati playing UCF tough. Tied 3-3 in the 2nd Quarter.
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adkindo
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:28 pm    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
Cincinnati playing UCF tough. Tied 3-3 in the 2nd Quarter.


Cincy leading UCF 20-16 late in the 3rd.....and are outplaying UCF. The Cincy crowd is rocking....
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venturalakersfan
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2019 11:32 am    Post subject:

Iowa-Michigan was a heck of a game
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2019 3:54 pm    Post subject:

It was right there for WVU to steal one against Texas, and our QB choked in the 2nd half throwing 4 interceptions!
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2019 3:55 pm    Post subject:

The Gator (UF) defense is not joke. U either a Gator, or u Gator Bait!
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:56 pm    Post subject:

UCLA losing 41-24 in the 4th quarter to Oregon Freaking State. At home. Yeah, whatever happened at Washington State is looking like a fluke. We may not even win another game this year. Does Chip survive a 1 or 2-win season?
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