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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:44 am    Post subject:

epic_ wrote:
I know Theo Meldon draws comparisons to Tony Parker (mentor of sorts), but one side compared him to DWade. What?

I've only seen highlights and read a couple scouting reports about Maledon, but that dude isn't close to being Tony Parker fast. And without the speed, Tony Parker would've been a career backup PG, which is what Maledon seems like to me.

The guy with Tony Parker speed in this draft is Kira Lewis, Jr.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:46 am    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSp-p0pYfos

Damn. Inspiring story.

That's a dude who could flourish with structure and a pro training regimen.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:10 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSp-p0pYfos

Damn. Inspiring story.

That's a dude who could flourish with structure and a pro training regimen.


Unless there's an obvious player to me (like Riller) at 28, I have no issues trading down for 2 2nds.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:36 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
I think I've settled on a top five:

1) Ball
2) Hayes
3) Edwards - there's too much natural talent not to have him top three; I hope he somehow ends up with Golden State
4) Poku
5) Okongwu

Then I have the next seven, but still figuring out the ranking:

Avdija
Lewis
Okoro
Terry
Vassell
P. Williams
Wiseman

Then the late lottery through #20:

Anthony
Bane
Bolmaro
Haliburton
Hampton
Maxey
Riller
Toppin

Guys in the #20-30 range:

Achiuwa
T. Bey
Dotson
Flynn
J. Green
Joe
M. Jones
Reed
Tillie
Tillman

Tie: Madar/Maledon/Mannion/Nesmith/T. Jones/Winston

Warming up to Maxey as a top-12 pick and dropping Terry into "tier three."

I don't think Saddiq Bey has the tools to defend in the NBA, but I'll give him a Villanova bump into the 20-30 range. Nesmith I'll also put there with Tyler Bey and Killian Tillie dropping to #31-32.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:11 pm    Post subject:

I've never been as unclear about a draft since 2013 or so? So much of it is team dependent on player dev.

I'm slightly rooting out guys that I don't think may be as healthy or have had injury issues prior to the league?

Such a weird draft.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:18 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSp-p0pYfos

Damn. Inspiring story.

That's a dude who could flourish with structure and a pro training regimen.


Unless there's an obvious player to me (like Riller) at 28, I have no issues trading down for 2 2nds.


I would like to trade the 1st to the Wizards to bring back Bonga + a 2nd.

If Washington drafts Okoro, Vassell or another wing then they might be open to obtaining another 1st.

I feel the early 2nd (37) could get a player with as much value as the pick at 28.

Bonga is miscast in Washington as a wing. He should be in a position to initiate the offense and having a couple years learning behind Lebron while working with Handy could really elevate his game.

His defense is about on par with Lonzo and he does not bring the Ball baggage to the team.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:25 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
I've never been as unclear about a draft since 2013 or so? So much of it is team dependent on player dev.

I'm slightly rooting out guys that I don't think may be as healthy or have had injury issues prior to the league?

Such a weird draft.


Agree. If the Lakers keep their 1st I would prefer a player able to contribute now and hope they obtain a 2nd where they can draft a longer term project.

Josh Hall seems like raw clay that could really develop under Handy, Simon and Lebron. Different talent than Darius Bazley from last year but I like him similarly.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:25 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSp-p0pYfos

Damn. Inspiring story.

That's a dude who could flourish with structure and a pro training regimen.


Unless there's an obvious player to me (like Riller) at 28, I have no issues trading down for 2 2nds.


I would like to trade the 1st to the Wizards to bring back Bonga + a 2nd.

If Washington drafts Okoro, Vassell or another wing then they might be open to obtaining another 1st.

I feel the early 2nd (37) could get a player with as much value as the pick at 28.

Bonga is miscast in Washington as a wing. He should be in a position to initiate the offense and having a couple years learning behind Lebron while working with Handy could really elevate his game.

His defense is about on par with Lonzo and he does not bring the Ball baggage to the team.


Yeo, around 34 to 38 is about the same tier or half tier of talent for sure.

It would be great to have Bonga back.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:40 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
I think I've settled on a top five:

4) Poku

I don't think Saddiq Bey has the tools to defend in the NBA, but I'll give him a Villanova bump into the 20-30 range. Nesmith I'll also put there with Tyler Bey and Killian Tillie dropping to #31-32.


If Poku puts on 20-25 lbs of muscle and his passing/vision translates then I believe you are right and he could be a home run swing for the fence for Atlanta or any team.

The one facet I like about Saddiq's defense is his ability to switch. He has the size/strength to guard bigs and enough lateral to at least contest guards/wings. He just doesn't look fluid at times due to his wider/strong body type.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:57 pm    Post subject:

A couple of players who I like due to their physical size, athleticism and skills but get little hype are

Lamine Diane
Josh Hall

Lamine Diane instead of Tyler Bey.

Josh Hall instead of Jaden McDaniels.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:16 pm    Post subject:

lukewaltonsdad wrote:
We need a shooter: I'm looking at Riller and Bane. I like Winston as well


Shooter or scorer.

Riller stands out as a scorer who imo will have close to an average 3pt shot.

Bane is held in high regard due to his 3pt shooting although he is a capable scorer but not on Riller's level.

Plenty of shooters out there in the late 1st to 2nd. They all just have deficiencies to their game that lower their ranking.

Scorers who can get their own are hard to find. Besides Riller another is Mason Jones.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:50 pm    Post subject:

Mike, I know you're not big on Dotson, but if you squint, doesn't he remind you of Kyle Lowry at Villanova just a little bit?
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:14 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
I think I've settled on a top five:

4) Poku

I don't think Saddiq Bey has the tools to defend in the NBA, but I'll give him a Villanova bump into the 20-30 range. Nesmith I'll also put there with Tyler Bey and Killian Tillie dropping to #31-32.


If Poku puts on 20-25 lbs of muscle and his passing/vision translates then I believe you are right and he could be a home run swing for the fence for Atlanta or any team.

The one facet I like about Saddiq's defense is his ability to switch. He has the size/strength to guard bigs and enough lateral to at least contest guards/wings. He just doesn't look fluid at times due to his wider/strong body type.

That I'm more skeptical of - I think he's a PF who could guard down against some backup wings. He's heavy legged, imo, but more than worrying about him getting shook one-on-one, I'm concerned about him chasing guys around screens and closing on shooters without giving up easy drives. And at PF I'm worried about his defensive rebounding.

On the positive side, he comes from a great program, he looks like he works on defense and generally knows what he's doing (which kind of concerns me more in some ways, but...), and he has strength and decent length. I hink he'll be a plus offensive player who isn't hopeless on defense, but that doesn't inspire me much even in this draft.

Re: Poku, I don't have a 6-7 figure job on the line if Poku busts. I get that. But the culture of the NBA is still backwards - as you and Mike touch on above, re: development staff for each team - in that drafting Obi Toppin in the top ten to score 16 ppg and be mediocre on defense while Poku picked at #18 becomes a star is perfectly fine for a GM, but drafting Poku ahead of Toppin scoring 16 ppg and playing mediocre defense is a fireable offense if Poku busts. I get that the cost of an outright bust is great, but NBA people rarely talk about the cost of drafting and giving a second contract to an okay one-way volume scorer when you need a combination of stars and efficient, generally low usage, role-players to win.

Anyway, what do I know? I would've drafted Malik Monk ahead of De'Aaron Fox and Luka Doncic ahead of Marvin Bagley.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:05 pm    Post subject:

As a random aside, Ja Morant was a better college prospect than De'Aaron Fox and I should've valued Ja accordingly, but didn't.

Two big things I've learned over the past few years:

1) Athletic PGs who struggle to shoot may not be the best long-term investment, but getting 8-9 years of high level productivity from a rim assassin is still better return than most players in a draft provide.

2) Pull-up 2pt jumpers > 3pt% on C&S jumpers for determining shooting gravity.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:34 am    Post subject:

Sam Merrill. Older prospect who has nice scoring ability. Good athlete who fits the profile of players that thrive in the Heat system.

Lakers need to find these type of unheralded players that provide production at low costs. I include Tyler Hagedorn in this same respect.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:57 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Mike, I know you're not big on Dotson, but if you squint, doesn't he remind you of Kyle Lowry at Villanova just a little bit?


Honestly he's been a guy I don't have feel for. Kind of like Cole Anthony. Blue chip things have made things a touch messy, but I know Dotson people that have him lottery or mid 2nd. Nothing in the middle.

Villanova ran differently and fwiw, what little I knew about the draft back then was that Lowry kept getting to the FT line at that time.

Over 61%FTr for a short, stocky PG? Looked quick? Had a clue for vision?

Dotson is around 44% to 48%. REALLY high for a PG too.

If I was looking for specific analytic numbers to draft late, it's Steal % and FTr. That way if there isn't a clear skill that I can't identify yet, the steal rate will tell me a certain degree of feel, FTr will tell me a certain baseline of skill and aggression combination.

If LAL traded down, Dotson is a no brainer pick.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:59 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
As a random aside, Ja Morant was a better college prospect than De'Aaron Fox and I should've valued Ja accordingly, but didn't.

Two big things I've learned over the past few years:

1) Athletic PGs who struggle to shoot may not be the best long-term investment, but getting 8-9 years of high level productivity from a rim assassin is still better return than most players in a draft provide.

2) Pull-up 2pt jumpers > 3pt% on C&S jumpers for determining shooting gravity.


I was down on Ja personally due to injury risk. I felt like I could trust Fox's intangibles/athleticism package more.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:21 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
As a random aside, Ja Morant was a better college prospect than De'Aaron Fox and I should've valued Ja accordingly, but didn't.

Two big things I've learned over the past few years:

1) Athletic PGs who struggle to shoot may not be the best long-term investment, but getting 8-9 years of high level productivity from a rim assassin is still better return than most players in a draft provide.

2) Pull-up 2pt jumpers > 3pt% on C&S jumpers for determining shooting gravity.


Thinking about your first profile Tony Parker fits well. Riller and Dotson this year??

As for your 2nd profile I will start watching for this. Tre Jones maybe??
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 8:45 am    Post subject:

Imagine being a GM of a current lottery team watching the playoffs and thinking that Wiseman is anywhere close to Anthony Davis athletically and that Wiseman would be a better pick than Okongwu.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:20 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Imagine being a GM of a current lottery team watching the playoffs and thinking that Wiseman is anywhere close to Anthony Davis athletically and that Wiseman would be a better pick than Okongwu.


I think lottery teams are lured in where "big man doesn't necessarily need touches and can run the floor" and teams would be happy with that.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:07 pm    Post subject:

PlantedTanks wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
As a random aside, Ja Morant was a better college prospect than De'Aaron Fox and I should've valued Ja accordingly, but didn't.

Two big things I've learned over the past few years:

1) Athletic PGs who struggle to shoot may not be the best long-term investment, but getting 8-9 years of high level productivity from a rim assassin is still better return than most players in a draft provide.

2) Pull-up 2pt jumpers > 3pt% on C&S jumpers for determining shooting gravity.


Thinking about your first profile Tony Parker fits well. Riller and Dotson this year??

As for your 2nd profile I will start watching for this. Tre Jones maybe??

I don't think there's a Fox/Morant/Westbrook/Wall type athletic, downhill PG in this draft. Kira Lewis is more akin to Tony Parker being super fast, but a little ground bound. Lewis is a crafty scorer around the basket rather than a power guard or a guy who's going to dunk on peoples' heads.

Riller can yam in traffic and finish through contact, so he might be the closest in this draft. He doesn't have the passing chops of those guys (Westbrook and Fox improved as passers in the NBA while younger than Riller), but Riller could be a more dynamic, dangerous jump shooter than those guys. My peak projection for Riller would be a 6'3 Lou Williams.

As to my second point, the epitome is Jayson Tatum (34% on 3s) who took a lot of tough iso midrange jumpers at Duke, but he made a good %age of them and was an 80%+ FT shooter. Tyler Herro is another example (34% on 3s at UK).

Tre Jones actually would be a good example. He shot a respectable 38% on midrange jumpers, but he took a lot and almost all of them were unassisted. The year before as a freshman he shot 37% on his 2pt jumpers, but a quarter of them were assisted. It makes him a more intriguing shooting prospect than Dotson who's the superior FT shooter, but who has struggled to make unassisted jumpers as a freshman and sophomore. My guess is that if he sticks, Dotson ends up a useful 3&D PG who can get to the rim attacking hard closeouts, but doesn't have the lead ball-handler upside that Jones has. I don't think that necessarily makes Jones a better prospect - his athletic limitations really hurt him as a finisher at the rim - but there's a little extra lead guard upside for Jones given the superior pull-up jumper and passing vision/touch.

At the top of the draft, Vassell really excelled as a pull-up jump shooter, which is easy to see in games. I think that's a great sign even if his FT shooting and low 3PAs are a little concerning. Patrick Williams has a wonky shooting profile making only 32% of a small number of 3PAs, but he hit 84% of his FTs and more than a third of his shots were 2pt jumpers and he hit a respectable 36% of them with only 11.5% assisted...as an 18 year old. Tyrese Maxey is another good bet to eventually shoot well from deep while being near elite as a rim finisher for a guard.

In addition to their other shooting red flags, Avdija and Okoro were both mediocre midrange shooters with low percentages on low volume. Josh Green hit just under 30% of his midrange jumpers, but over half of his attempts were assisted. Along with his awkward tendency to almost touch his knees together when gathering on C&S attempts, I'm skeptical he ever rises above mediocre as a perimeter shooter, which is a shame given all the other good stuff he does on a basketball court. Conversely, I think Nico Mannion can be a useful shooting PG off the bench even if he never gets to the rim against NBA athletes. Immanuel Quickley is another potential solid two level scorer and brings defense if not passing chops.

Around where the Lakers are drafting, you probably wouldn't be surprised to learn that Grant Riller has been a monster as a pull-up jump shooter all four years in college as has Cassius Winston. Desmond Bane has been a little underwhelming there likely due to limited explosiveness in traffic and the shorter wingspan, but it doesn't rise to the level of being a red flag, imo. If the Lakers don't draft a lead guard, Saben Lee could go undrafted and he'd be my first call for a preseason tryout (assuming "summer" league doesn't happen) given his impressive scoring profile.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:24 pm    Post subject:

Btw, I'm using hoop-math to get some of the shooting data since it's free. If someone knows of a site that has more granular, synergy style shooting data that would be great.

I love what the Stephen is doing in providing that granular data in their scouting profiles these days, but they only started doing that this year so there's no historical data to compare to.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 12:36 pm    Post subject:

Mike@LG wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Imagine being a GM of a current lottery team watching the playoffs and thinking that Wiseman is anywhere close to Anthony Davis athletically and that Wiseman would be a better pick than Okongwu.


I think lottery teams are lured in where "big man doesn't necessarily need touches and can run the floor" and teams would be happy with that.

Playoff basketball and regular season basketball are becoming almost two different sports, but bad teams still seem to draft more often for regular season success than postseason success.

I'm fine with a rim running big, but if you think he won't be able to switch *cough* Wiseman *cough*, you maybe shouldn't draft a guy whose playing time you're going to have limit in the playoffs. I normally wouldn't draft Okongwu top five given some of his offensive limitations - he's almost certainly not going to turn into Adebayo on offense - but in a weak draft with so many unknowns, his ability to switch onto guards as a big is one of the more valuable, bankable skills in this class. OO's upside isn't super high, but I think that kid can give you 25-30 good minutes every night in the playoffs whereas a guy like Toppin is going to be targeted and played off the floor.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:01 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Btw, I'm using hoop-math to get some of the shooting data since it's free. If someone knows of a site that has more granular, synergy style shooting data that would be great.

I love what the Stephen is doing in providing that granular data in their scouting profiles these days, but they only started doing that this year so there's no historical data to compare to.


Hoop math is it.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:54 pm    Post subject:

I did not see Bradley Beal becoming who he is out of college or why he was so highly regarded as a draft prospect. @MikeLG and BVH did you have him rated highly?

What sold me on Beal was a summer video where he was playing one on one against Jordan Clarkson. He easily took Clarkson off the dribble while Clarkson struggled to get by Beal.

Then I realized offensively he was more than just a shooter and could also play defense.
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