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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:36 pm    Post subject:

aprevo15 wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
Yup,

Quijada = Bard


Yeah. Both suck.

Do we even have a legit closer?


Should be Devin Williams and Pressly
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aprevo15
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:38 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
aprevo15 wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
Yup,

Quijada = Bard


Yeah. Both suck.

Do we even have a legit closer?


Should be Devin Williams and Pressly


Williams was filthy this inning.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:49 pm    Post subject:

If we hold on, Cuba's not as tough tomorrow.

They got it.

Time to watch UCLA go to the sweet 16
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 6:55 pm    Post subject:

What a game. USA wins!!!!!!!

Give the game ball to Trea Turner.
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:36 pm    Post subject:

I forgot about Peralta on our team. That does give us a possible decent hitter in LF against righties. If Taylor has just lost it, maybe we'll be OK with an OF of Peralta-Outman-Betts from left to right (once Outman gets called up, which I am thinking is inevitable). Against righties, at least. Against lefties, I'm not sure what happens in LF and CF if Taylor is just not viable. Trayce is better against righties, though perhaps they'll give him the initial shot at starting against lefties. I'd imagine we'll sit Outman against lefties, and ditto Peralta, so if Taylor isn't even an option there, we'll have to figure something else out.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:52 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
I forgot about Peralta on our team. That does give us a possible decent hitter in LF against righties. If Taylor has just lost it, maybe we'll be OK with an OF of Peralta-Outman-Betts from left to right (once Outman gets called up, which I am thinking is inevitable). Against righties, at least. Against lefties, I'm not sure what happens in LF and CF if Taylor is just not viable. Trayce is better against righties, though perhaps they'll give him the initial shot at starting against lefties. I'd imagine we'll sit Outman against lefties, and ditto Peralta, so if Taylor isn't even an option there, we'll have to figure something else out.


Yeah, I think we're just going to throw players at the wall to see who sticks and wins which job.

We'll do this up to the trade deadline and figure where we're at.

This is usually how we treat our BP every year.

Also, we might even sacrifice offense for defense if we can get good production from other spots.

Quote:
Let's say:

- Muncy bounces back to being a .900 ops player
- JD Martinez is still an .800 ops guy
- Vargas is a .750 ops at 2nd base.
- Freeman and Betts are still .900 ops guys
- Will Smith is an .850 ops guy
- Peralta is a .780 ops guy vs. righties like he was last yr.


Quote:
So we have:

.900 ops - Betts
.900 ops - Freeman
.900 ops - Muncy
.850 ops - Will Smith
.800 ops - JD Martinez
.780 ops - Peralta
.750 ops - Vargas


That's enough offensive production to carry our deficiencies at LF - CF - SS

We can just go with the strongest defenders at those positions.

So whoever plays the best defense with decent offensive production wins the job this year.

So if Heyward can play above average defense this year in CF and maybe give us a .650 ops, the job might primarily be his this year (vs. righties).

Quote:
Something like:

.220 avg
.300 obp
.350 slg
.650 ops

10 HR
40 RBI


And here's what Heyward put up in 2021 vs. righties:

Quote:
.208 avg
.276 obp
.353 slg
.629 ops

255 AB
55 K
7 HR
22 RBi



Compare that to what we got from Bellinger last year, vs. righties:

Quote:
.209 avg
.272 obp
.412 slg
.684 ops

354 AB
106 K
17 HR
48 RBI


Yeah, I think we're just looking for the best defensive player in CF right now. I don't know how well Trayce Thompson is out there. I think Heyward might have the edge.

But yeah, if the other positions struggle offensively, then we might have to seek more offense from SS, LF and CF at the trade deadline.

So we might revisit the Bryan Reynolds trade. We might go hard at Tim Anderson. We might seek another righty LF bat.

But I think the plan is to give Thompson, Heyward, Taylor, and Outman enough playing timie up to the trade deadline to figure out what we want to do. Probably 150 ABs each?
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 9:59 pm    Post subject:

^
The thought of a light-hitting Heyward as the everyday CF makes me physically ill. It's like we can't get out of our own way with having at least 1 automatic out in the lineup.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:28 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
^
The thought of a light-hitting Heyward as the everyday CF makes me physically ill. It's like we can't get out of our own way with having at least 1 automatic out in the lineup.


Yeah, honestly, if Heyward is hitting at a .650 ops and still our main starting centerfielder, then his defense is probably head and shoulders above Outman and Thompson.

That's the only way I see it playing out that way. And it might very well be because this guy was the best right fielder in the league before Mookie Betts. His D was that special.

Quote:
On November 9, Heyward became the first position player in Major League Baseball history to win three straight Gold Glove Awards with three different teams (Braves, Cardinals, and Cubs).


Quote:
5× Gold Glove Award (2012, 2014–2017)
Wilson Defensive Player of the Year Award (2014)
3× Fielding Bible Award (2012, 2014, 2015)


But, if Outman or Thompson can play average defense in CF while producing above .750 ops, then Heyward won't be playing much (unless his defense is GG level).

Here are his 2022 defensive highlights (in CF):





Here's a reminder of what the Padres got out of their CF Trent Grisham last year.

Quote:
- Gold Glove defense in CF

.184 avg
.284 obp
.341 slg
.626 ops

451 AB
150 K
17 HR
53 RBI
2.4 WAR


Last edited by LongBeachPoly on Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:40 pm    Post subject:

Heyward has had 504 plate appearances since the start of 2021. Output: -0.3 WAR in total. If you can't hit, it's my opinion that it actually has more of an effect of one virtual automatic out, because it affects how a pitcher might pitch to the guy batting in front of him. If he isn't an embarrassment as a hitter, sure, there might be value, but he's trending very wrong, and it's not like he's hit this spring, either. He was just given a spot...why? To appease Freeman? To appease Roberts? He should have had to earn a spot with a strong spring, and after a week, apparently we decided he had to make the team? He's turned into a pumpkin since, and that's probably what he is.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:48 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Heyward has had 504 plate appearances since the start of 2021. Output: -0.3 WAR in total. If you can't hit, it's my opinion that it actually has more of an effect of one virtual automatic out, because it affects how a pitcher might pitch to the guy batting in front of him. If he isn't an embarrassment as a hitter, sure, there might be value, but he's trending very wrong, and it's not like he's hit this spring, either. He was just given a spot...why? To appease Freeman? To appease Roberts? He should have had to earn a spot with a strong spring, and after a week, apparently we decided he had to make the team? He's turned into a pumpkin since, and that's probably what he is.


I hear you. But, we did win 106 games in 2021 and 111 games in 2022 with a light hitting strong defensive centerfielder in Bellinger.

They just believe in that formula.

Remember, they wanted to re-sign Bellinger for a cheaper price. Since he was too expensive, they got Heyward.

If Heyward can still play above averge defense in centerfield, I think they're ok with his light hitting, as long as it's not in the (.550 ops) range.

Just looking at the 4 centerfielders last yr who hit under .700 ops, they all provided a +WAR:

Quote:
Myles Straw (CLE) - .564 ops / 2.7 WAR
Mike Yastrzemski (SF) - .697 ops / 2.0 WAR
Cody Bellinger (LAD) - .654 ops / 1.2 WAR
Trent Grisham (SD) - .626 ops / 2.4 WAR


I mean, it'd be preferred if Outman or Thompson plays well enough to take the position away from Heyward.

But if Heyward is still starting up until the trade deadline, then that means Thompson and Outman didn't play well enough (either defensively, offensively, or both).

And if all 3 stink it up, we'll be looking for a trade.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:09 am    Post subject:

^
We just seem to have blind spots. So maybe Bellinger was a good center fielder. He still provided a negative WAR in 2021, and a negative WAR overall in 2021-22. I don't even think Heyward should make the team, let alone be starting. But we can't seem to help ourselves at just giving outs away in the lineup. If we had an average starting major league centerfielder, maybe we would've won 113-114 games last season, who knows. Wouldn't have made a difference last year in the regular season, but it might this season if we have a similar crappy process.

I don't like just giving outs away. I don't like bad process, and that's what I think this is. We get most things right. That doesn't mean that we get everything right, clearly, as evidenced by virtually all of us complaining about various things over the years. And if we value defense in center field, would it kill us to have a center fielder who isn't a massive liability with the bat?

I truly hope that Heyward doesn't get too many AB's with us and that I'm just being overly concerned here. But I guess I'm traumatized by watching Bellinger over the last 2 seasons. Also, I don't think our team is going to be good enough this season where we can put ourselves at an obvious handicap, like we did in the past 2 seasons by starting Bellinger.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 5:05 am    Post subject:

^

Understood.

I'll say this, when we lost in the playoffs last year, alot of people blamed it on benching Bellinger. There were crucial defensive plays in centerfield where Thompson didn't get to the ball. People felt Bellinger would have made those routine plays.

To me, Heyward's on the team due to doubts about Thompson: offensively, he strikes out way too much. His BABIP was extremely high last year. And his defense in centerfield might be shaky. He gets late jumps and he doesn't read the ball well.

I think all your concerns would be alleviated if Thompson just plays well in centerfield. If he plays well, Heyward won't get that many ABs and we might even release him.

So it's all on Thompson to take the job. The opportunity is there. But Heyward is on the team due to doubts about Thompson. Same goes with Outman.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 6:09 am    Post subject:

What a great headline:

Quote:
Trea day: Turner's slam lifts U.S. into WBC semis


Gotta play this while watching the highlights:

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:00 am    Post subject:

Quote:
Team USA's Nick Martinez, not guaranteed a start, leaves WBC

San Diego Padres pitcher Nick Martinez left the World Baseball Classic on Saturday after he wasn't guaranteed to start for Team USA for the rest of the event.

United States manager Mark DeRosa said Martinez will return to Padres spring training to prepare for the start of the major league season.

"I didn't feel that was fair to us as a whole or to him to guarantee that, regardless of result," DeRosa said. "We're trying to win this thing, so I thought it was best for everyone -- and he agreed -- that he would go back and get ready for opening day with San Diego."

................

Martinez started Game 2 of pool play against Mexico and was the losing pitcher, allowing five hits and three runs with two strikeouts in 2 2/3 innings of the 11-5 defeat.


Wow, I'm shocked. How do you just leave the team like that? What's the actual hurry? The title game is on Tuesday? He can't stick around to support the teammates?
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 10:35 am    Post subject:

Altuve fractured his thumb yesterday. I hate the Astros, but I also hate to see this. Bard was just wild yesterday:

Quote:
Astros' Jose Altuve sidelined indefinitely with thumb fracture


Houston star Jose Altuve suffered a fractured right thumb in Team Venezuela's World Baseball Classic game Saturday and will need surgery, Astros general manager Dana Brown announced Sunday.

There is no timetable for his return, according to Brown. The Astros will announce a prognosis after the surgery, which will happen in the coming days.

............................

"It appears it could be a while," Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters Sunday at spring training in West Palm Beach, Florida, where Altuve returned for a medical examination.

It was the second significant injury suffered by an All-Star player in WBC pool play in Miami, after New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz suffered a torn patellar tendon while celebrating Puerto Rico's win over the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. He is expected to miss the entire 2023 season.

Altuve, 32, was coming off another stellar season for the reigning champion Astros, having hit .300 with a .921 OPS in 2022.

Utilityman Mauricio Dubon, who batted .208 games last season, is expected to move into the Astros' lineup to replace Altuve.


Damn, this fracture requires surgery. Usually they just put a splint on it and let it heal itself.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:24 pm    Post subject:

Player to watch today: A's Ryan Noda.

He was our prospect. The A's got him from us in the Rule 5 draft this year as the 2nd overall pick:

Quote:
The Dodgers also lost three players, with the A’s taking first baseman Ryan Noda No. 2 overall, the Pirates taking lefty Jose Hernandez with the third pick and the Brewers selecting right-hander Gus Varland No. 10.


We got Ryan Noda in the Ross Stripling trade. We got Nick Frasso and Ryan Noda. Frasso is a rising prospect for us, but we left Noda unprotected this year and lost him. Noda produced in the minors. He's hit 54 HRs in the last 2 years: 29 in 2021 and 25 in 2022.

He's a 26 yr old 1st baseman who plays pretty good defense with very good power. He walks a ton but also strikes out a ton. Looks like a Max Muncy type.

Here are his numbers last 2 years:

Quote:
AA Tulsa (25 yrs old):
250 avg
.383 obp
.521 slg
.904 ops

475 PA
127 K
29 HR
73 RBI
3/4 stolen bases

AAA Oklahoma City (26 yrs old):
259 avg
.396 obp
.474 slg
.870 ops

574 PA
162 K
25 HR
90 RBI
20/24 stolen bases


Quote:
Nobody covers the Rule 5 Draft better than the folks at Baseball America. This week, J.J. Cooper and Geoff Pontes co-hosted a Rule 5 preview podcast, in which a few Dodgers were mentioned.

Pontes vouched for Ryan Noda as a likely Rule 5 Draft selection, who was among the handful of Dodgers prospects we previewed earlier in the week. Pontes on the podcast said he thought Noda was better than ten current starting major league first basemen right now.

“I look at his ability to get on base. I look at the power. I don’t think the contact is that much of a deterrent overall. And the fact that he’s actually a good defensive first baseman, and can provide some value there,” Pontes said. “I look at some of these guys who are playing first base on a daily basis, and you can’t tell me that Noda doesn’t have more upside than Bobby Dalbec has at this point.”

Noda, one of two players the Dodgers received from the Blue Jays in the Ross Stripling trade, hit .259/.396/.474 with 25 home runs, 23 doubles, and a 120 wRC+ for Triple-A Oklahoma City in 2022.

https://www.truebluela.com/2022/12/4/23489560/dodgers-rule-5-draft-ryan-noda-carlos-duran-baseball-america



The A's have to keep him on the 26 man roster for the entire year, or offer him back to us for $50k. There's a good chance they'll do that, since they suck.

I think we could have used Ryan Noda this year. Frustrating to think that we left Noda unprotected just so we can have room to sign a Jimmy Nelson....

Could we not have used him at DH this yr? Look at his stolen bases (20/24) last year. He can run too!
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:53 pm    Post subject:

Outman's coming back to earth now:


Quote:
Thu, Mar 16: 0-2 / 1 bb

Fri, Mar 17: 0-4 / 2 k

Sat, Mar 18: 0-3 / 2 k

Sun, Mar 19: 0-2 / 2 k

Total: 0-11 / 6 k / 1 bb


Yeah, Outman's always going to have trouble with making contact. There's something about our outfielders this year:

Taylor, Outman, Thompson. All are high strikeout machines.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:28 pm    Post subject:

JImmy Nelson came in, got 0 outs, walked 3 and hit a batter. That's:

Quote:
2.1 ip
11 bb
1 hbp


I really scratch my head why we gave him a guaranteed mlb contract instead of a minor league one. Who were we competing with?

There's no way he should make the opening day roster.

Quote:
For the fourth consecutive season, pitcher Jimmy Nelson has signed a one-year contract with the Dodgers. This time it’s a $1.2-million pact for 2023 as he tries to return from elbow surgery a year and a half earlier.

Nelson was one of the Dodgers’ best pitchers in 2021, posting a 1.86 ERA in 28 appearances, with 44 strikeouts against 13 walks in his 29 innings. But his season was cut short by Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon repair that August. He last pitched in a game on July 30, 2021.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:34 pm    Post subject:

Yes, Nelson is all over the place. On the plus side, Gavin Stone came in today and struck out 8 in just 3 innings against the A's. His changeup looks really devastating. I'm excited about him.

https://twitter.com/SportsNetLA/status/1637582357380366338
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 3:33 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Yes, Nelson is all over the place. On the plus side, Gavin Stone came in today and struck out 8 in just 3 innings against the A's. His changeup looks really devastating. I'm excited about him.

https://twitter.com/SportsNetLA/status/1637582357380366338


wowo

Honestly, I might like him more than Miller.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 4:09 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Yes, Nelson is all over the place. On the plus side, Gavin Stone came in today and struck out 8 in just 3 innings against the A's. His changeup looks really devastating. I'm excited about him.

https://twitter.com/SportsNetLA/status/1637582357380366338


wowo

Honestly, I might like him more than Miller.


I don't blame you. Miller's stuff has the higher ceiling I think, but Stone looks poised and that changeup is such a weapon in its own right. He looks like he has better command, and I do think Stone has the higher floor. While also having a high ceiling himself. I'm still a believer in May. We still have a chance to have a great young rotation with May/Miller/Stone, if it works out.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 5:55 pm    Post subject:

^

wow, Stone has a line of 28 pitches, 28 strikes. Holy cow!

Quote:
Josh Norris
@jnorris427

The #Dodgers Gavin Stone's line this spring:

6.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 14 Ks
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 8:02 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
^

wow, Stone has a line of 28 pitches, 28 strikes. Holy cow!

Quote:
Josh Norris
@jnorris427

The #Dodgers Gavin Stone's line this spring:

6.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 14 Ks


I don't think that can be right, because in that link where I showed that strikeout, wasn't that on a 3-2 pitch? Anyway, maybe he's our next great pitching prospect. If we could somehow get Julio re-signed (or if we signed Ohtani in free agency), and if May looks better this season, and if Stone looks studly, I wonder if Miller could be used as bait in a big trade. We've shown a willingness to deal top-100 prospects if we think that guys at their position are actually going to be better big leaguers. We certainly did it with Keibert Ruiz and we did it in that same deal with Josiah Gray, I believe.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 8:55 pm    Post subject:

^

yeah, I got it off the reddit game thread box score. I just double checked with the play by play on ESPN, looks legit (28/28 strikes):

Quote:
6th:

1) 1 pitch - infield single

2) 1 pitch - single to left

3)
strike swinging
strike swinging
strike swinging


4)
strike looking
strike swinging
strike swinging


5) 1 pitch - fielder's choice out


Quote:
7th:

6)
strike looking
strike swinging
strike swinging


7)
strike looking
strike - foul ball
strike looking


8)
strike looking
strike looking
strike looking



Quote:
8th:

9)
strike - foul ball
strike looking
strike looking


10) 1 pitch - double

11)
strike looking
strike swinging
strike swinging


12)
strike swinging
strike looking
strike swinging



So the 7th is considered an immaculate inning right?

Man, Stone struck out 8 batters on 24 pitches. wow!

Dude went through 3 innings on 28 pitches!
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:20 pm    Post subject:

^
If that's right, incredible. The Spectrum graphic definitely has "3-2" up when he strikes out that guy, so maybe they were just off and it was 0-2.

Yeah, there's no way the graphic is off on this many hitters. Found this link, and it shows all 8 K's he had today. They aren't all 0-2 counts, pretty clearly.

https://www.mlb.com/video/gavin-stone-s-eight-strikeouts
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