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Aeneas Hunter
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 5:35 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
We may be in a dogfight to get in the play-in, let alone playoffs, but the trades may have come about a month too late. I believe it is worth giving this core a chance next season. I think we may not bring back Beas at his 16.5m number, and I'm not sure what happens with Mo (though backup center will be a must with AD's injury history), but I'm ok with bringing back most of the players. Not sure Dennis/TBJ can be brought back unless they get our MLE, and only one of them can.


I expect that we will bring back some version of this roster. Walker will likely be gone. Beasley and Bamba are question marks, but they are not easily replaceable. I doubt that anyone would offer Schroder more than the taxpayer MLE. I don't foresee a poison pill scenario with Reaves. So the real questions are (1) whether we can make some positive trades with the various pieces, and (2) whether and to what extent the repeater tax issue limits us.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 5:45 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We may be in a dogfight to get in the play-in, let alone playoffs, but the trades may have come about a month too late. I believe it is worth giving this core a chance next season. I think we may not bring back Beas at his 16.5m number, and I'm not sure what happens with Mo (though backup center will be a must with AD's injury history), but I'm ok with bringing back most of the players. Not sure Dennis/TBJ can be brought back unless they get our MLE, and only one of them can.


I expect that we will bring back some version of this roster. Walker will likely be gone. Beasley and Bamba are question marks, but they are not easily replaceable. I doubt that anyone would offer Schroder more than the taxpayer MLE. I don't foresee a poison pill scenario with Reaves. So the real questions are (1) whether we can make some positive trades with the various pieces, and (2) whether and to what extent the repeater tax issue limits us.


Agreed. I think Rob is correct in saying the post-trade team was basically a "pre-agency" period to see which ones stick around. I don't think they traded a 27 FRP to let DLO/Vando walk. I think those two are returning.

Re: Mo/Beas, I can see them as candidates for the Lakers to use their Bird rights and negotiate longer deals but on lower per year $ amounts. Like Mo, 2 years/$13m. Something like that.

THe only question for me is whether the Lakers keep one of Troy/Dennis or go somewhere else with that with a different FA.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 6:01 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Re: Mo/Beas, I can see them as candidates for the Lakers to use their Bird rights and negotiate longer deals but on lower per year $ amounts. Like Mo, 2 years/$13m. Something like that.


That would be risky, but I can see it happening. It's hard to know how the market values either of them. I expect that the market valuation is less than their current contracts, but it may not be as far off as we would like. There's no way of knowing this unless and until they test the market.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 6:23 am    Post subject:

Aeneas Hunter wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Re: Mo/Beas, I can see them as candidates for the Lakers to use their Bird rights and negotiate longer deals but on lower per year $ amounts. Like Mo, 2 years/$13m. Something like that.


That would be risky, but I can see it happening. It's hard to know how the market values either of them. I expect that the market valuation is less than their current contracts, but it may not be as far off as we would like. There's no way of knowing this unless and until they test the market.


Yeah. On the one hand, you could simply pick up options/guarantee deals.

$10m for Mo. $16.5m for Beas.

Both seem a bit high unless the Lakers want to use them for salary ballast in a trade, not the worst thing. Luxury taxes are calculated at the end of the season and I don't think either are impossible to trade if you need to get rid of their salaries (albeit will need to include draft compensation).

If Mo hit the FA market, I think his price tops out at the TPMLE. I think it's clear he's not a starting level center who has some major limitations (and unique abilities like shooting 3s and protecting the rim).

Beas is a more puzzling one. I don't think he is worth 16.5m, but his skills (high volume 3 point shooting, he's more volume than a high % shooter) are somewhat valuable. Maybe re-negotiate for 2 years, $20m?

Interesting decisions ahead.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 6:39 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Beas is a more puzzling one. I don't think he is worth 16.5m, but his skills (high volume 3 point shooting, he's more volume than a high % shooter) are somewhat valuable. Maybe re-negotiate for 2 years, $20m?


My guess (and that's all it is at this point) is that if we try to re-sign Beasley on a two-year deal, he's gone unless he tests the market and gets minimal interest. That's possible, but who knows?
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:00 am    Post subject:

I don’t agree dog fight. The play ins to me seem like a lock. No way I see all these teams keeping up these last few games. Lakers have to win 6/10 and they are in. Should be rather straight forward. The issue is that they may have to win 2 play in games. That’s what they should try to avoid.

I have a hard time seeing this team win 2 play ins. But if we can get 8th I feel we’re going to make the playoffs.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:02 am    Post subject:

@Yi: let’s say we do run it back on favorable, yet realistic numbers in another round of #playingw/#’s

1. Bron 47.6m
2. AD 40.6m
3. DLo 25m (via full bird for up to a 5yr deal)
4. Reaves 11.6m (via early bird max for up to a 4yr deal)
5. Beas 10m (on new 2yr/20m deal)
6. Rui 8.5m (on new full bird deal for up to a 5yr deal)
7. Schro 5.5m (using portion of ntpMLE for up to a 4yr deal)
8. FA??? 5m (using portion of ntpMLE for up to a 4yr deal)
9. Vando 4.7m
10. Mo 4.5m (using entire BAE up to a 2yr/9m deal)
11. MaxC 1.7m
12. 2023 1st pick swap ~3m
13. 2023 2nd 1.1m* (using portion of ntpMLE for up to a 4yr deal)
14. Vet min (Gabriel, TBJr?) 2.1m
= 171.9m in team salary with 100k wiggle before hitting 172m hardcap apron triggered by use of the ntpMLE and BAE

*rookie min counts as 2.1m (2yr seasoned vet min) towards hardcap math
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:06 am    Post subject:

wolfpaclaker wrote:
I don’t agree dog fight. The play ins to me seem like a lock. No way I see all these teams keeping up these last few games. Lakers have to win 6/10 and they are in. Should be rather straight forward. The issue is that they may have to win 2 play in games. That’s what they should try to avoid.

I have a hard time seeing this team win 2 play ins. But if we can get 8th I feel we’re going to make the playoffs.


I think it's def a dog fight.

I don't see Dallas/Minny/OKC/Utah/Pels/Lakers giving up. Out of those 6 teams, only 4 make it into the play-ins. Blazers I think will cut the cord on the season. That group of 6 is separated by 1.5 games total.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:06 am    Post subject:

^^^^

It should have been a lock. I'm not sure that it is. We've had some costly losses, but it worries me more that it took a big game from Reaves just to get us past the freaking Orlando Magic.
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yinoma2001
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:07 am    Post subject:

vasashi17+ wrote:
@Yi: let’s say we do run it back on favorable, yet realistic numbers in another round of #playingw/#’s

1. Bron 47.6m
2. AD 40.6m
3. DLo 25m (via full bird for up to a 5yr deal)
4. Reaves 11.6m (via early bird max for up to a 4yr deal)
5. Beas 10m (on new 2yr/20m deal)
6. Rui 8.5m (on new full bird deal for up to a 5yr deal)
7. Schro 5.5m (using portion of ntpMLE for up to a 4yr deal)
8. FA??? 5m (using portion of ntpMLE for up to a 4yr deal)
9. Vando 4.7m
10. Mo 4.5m (using entire BAE up to a 2yr/9m deal)
11. MaxC 1.7m
12. 2023 1st pick swap ~3m
13. 2023 2nd 1.1m* (using portion of ntpMLE for up to a 4yr deal)
14. Vet min (Gabriel, TBJr?) 2.1m
= 171.9m in team salary with 100k wiggle before hitting hardcap apron triggered by use of the ntpMLE and BAE

*rookie min counts as 2.1m (2yr seasoned vet min) towards hardcap math


Holy cow. If those #s worked I would be all in for that. Worse comes to worse, cut bait with Beas if DLO needs $30m.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:13 am    Post subject:

^@Yi: also since the hard cap triggers in-cap-acitate us to go beyond 172m in team salary, we only spend a max of 18m towards repeater taxes (ie being 7m beyond the projected 165m tax line).

I still don’t believe in that team till we find a fulltime center for AD to move down to the 4 fulltime and emphasize his role on defense for us.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:23 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We may be in a dogfight to get in the play-in, let alone playoffs, but the trades may have come about a month too late. I believe it is worth giving this core a chance next season. I think we may not bring back Beas at his 16.5m number, and I'm not sure what happens with Mo (though backup center will be a must with AD's injury history), but I'm ok with bringing back most of the players. Not sure Dennis/TBJ can be brought back unless they get our MLE, and only one of them can.


I expect that we will bring back some version of this roster. Walker will likely be gone. Beasley and Bamba are question marks, but they are not easily replaceable. I doubt that anyone would offer Schroder more than the taxpayer MLE. I don't foresee a poison pill scenario with Reaves. So the real questions are (1) whether we can make some positive trades with the various pieces, and (2) whether and to what extent the repeater tax issue limits us.


Agreed. I think Rob is correct in saying the post-trade team was basically a "pre-agency" period to see which ones stick around. I don't think they traded a 27 FRP to let DLO/Vando walk. I think those two are returning.

Re: Mo/Beas, I can see them as candidates for the Lakers to use their Bird rights and negotiate longer deals but on lower per year $ amounts. Like Mo, 2 years/$13m. Something like that.

THe only question for me is whether the Lakers keep one of Troy/Dennis or go somewhere else with that with a different FA.



I really think some undervalue and under appreciate these 2 guys. We really need to keep them.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:28 am    Post subject:

Quote:
Jaylen Brown is noncommittal on his future with the Boston Celtics as he is one year away from free agency. Brown is unlikely to sign an extension with the Celtics because he would make considerably more money as a free agent. The situation could change if he makes an All-NBA team this year and is offered a supermax.

“I don’t know. As long as I’m needed. It’s not up to me,” Brown told The Ringer. “We’ll see how they feel about me over time and I feel about them over time. Hopefully, whatever it is, it makes sense. But I will stay where I’m wanted. I will stay where I’m needed and treated correct.”

When asked how long he wants to play with Tatum, Brown keeps his focus on the immediate future.

“I just enjoy the time that you have now,” he says. “If it’s your whole career, it’s your whole career. If it’s not, it’s not. Some of the greatest players of all time haven’t finished with their organization. Michael Jordan retired a Wizard. As much as we like it here and enjoy being here, you see where life takes you. You see how the process goes. All you do is really focus on what’s in front of you right now, to be honest. But I don’t really know or want to answer that question because that type of stuff makes Celtics fans speculate and go crazy. Especially right now, I’ll just say we’ll get there when we get there.”

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:30 am    Post subject:

RI Laker wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
Aeneas Hunter wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
We may be in a dogfight to get in the play-in, let alone playoffs, but the trades may have come about a month too late. I believe it is worth giving this core a chance next season. I think we may not bring back Beas at his 16.5m number, and I'm not sure what happens with Mo (though backup center will be a must with AD's injury history), but I'm ok with bringing back most of the players. Not sure Dennis/TBJ can be brought back unless they get our MLE, and only one of them can.


I expect that we will bring back some version of this roster. Walker will likely be gone. Beasley and Bamba are question marks, but they are not easily replaceable. I doubt that anyone would offer Schroder more than the taxpayer MLE. I don't foresee a poison pill scenario with Reaves. So the real questions are (1) whether we can make some positive trades with the various pieces, and (2) whether and to what extent the repeater tax issue limits us.


Agreed. I think Rob is correct in saying the post-trade team was basically a "pre-agency" period to see which ones stick around. I don't think they traded a 27 FRP to let DLO/Vando walk. I think those two are returning.

Re: Mo/Beas, I can see them as candidates for the Lakers to use their Bird rights and negotiate longer deals but on lower per year $ amounts. Like Mo, 2 years/$13m. Something like that.

THe only question for me is whether the Lakers keep one of Troy/Dennis or go somewhere else with that with a different FA.



I really think some undervalue and under appreciate these 2 guys. We really need to keep them.


Unlikely to nearly impossible to keep both IMO. Pick one, or find a better use of that MLE. Last two MLE uses were hit and misses (Lonnie/Nunn).
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:39 am    Post subject:

yinoma2001 wrote:
wolfpaclaker wrote:
I don’t agree dog fight. The play ins to me seem like a lock. No way I see all these teams keeping up these last few games. Lakers have to win 6/10 and they are in. Should be rather straight forward. The issue is that they may have to win 2 play in games. That’s what they should try to avoid.

I have a hard time seeing this team win 2 play ins. But if we can get 8th I feel we’re going to make the playoffs.


I think it's def a dog fight.

I don't see Dallas/Minny/OKC/Utah/Pels/Lakers giving up. Out of those 6 teams, only 4 make it into the play-ins. Blazers I think will cut the cord on the season. That group of 6 is separated by 1.5 games total.

Pels have been horrible without Zion. They should beat themselves. I mean I can't see them get more than 38 wins. Utah is tricky, they go on streaks. They can play well then they can be awful. Again, based on their past, I would say more than 39 wins is being way too optimistic for them.

So for me, the number is 40. If we get 6 wins, we are in easily. Unelss we completely make a (bleep) out of it, we have been able to win 5-6 out of our 10 games for a while now, since the 2-10 start. That's pretty much what we've been. A team that wins 2-3 then loses a few. Etc.

I see us making this, but the main question is what seed. I think at one poingt we had a real shot at having to play no play in games, or at most 1 (and 2 cracks at it). Now we may have to win 2 to get in. Which will be tough.
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vasashi17+
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:44 am    Post subject:

^To add some context to JB’s comments…

Quote:
What has your experience been like as a Black professional athlete in Boston?

There’s multiple experiences: as an athlete, as a basketball player, as a regular civilian, as somebody who’s trying to start a business, as someone who’s trying to do things in the community.

There’s not a lot of room for people of color, Black entrepreneurs, to come in and start a business.

I think that my experience there has been not as fluid as I thought it would be.


What do you mean by that?

Even being an athlete, you would think that you’ve got a certain amount of influence to be able to have experiences, to be able to have some things that doors open a little bit easier. But even with me being who I am, trying to start a business, trying to buy a house, trying to do certain things, you run into some adversity.

Other athletes have spoken about the negative way that fans have treated Black athletes while playing in Boston. Have you experienced any of that?

I have, but I pretty much block it all out. It’s not the whole Celtic fan base, but it is a part of the fan base that exists within the Celtic nation that is problematic. If you have a bad game, they tie it to your personal character.

I definitely think there’s a group or an amount within the Celtic nation that is extremely toxic and does not want to see athletes use their platform, or they just want you to play basketball and entertain and go home. And that’s a problem to me.



Methinks it’s gonna be more than just a supermax issue when it comes to departing that town…

JBezzy, you know what to do!
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:45 am    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
Quote:
Jaylen Brown is noncommittal on his future with the Boston Celtics as he is one year away from free agency. Brown is unlikely to sign an extension with the Celtics because he would make considerably more money as a free agent. The situation could change if he makes an All-NBA team this year and is offered a supermax.

“I don’t know. As long as I’m needed. It’s not up to me,” Brown told The Ringer. “We’ll see how they feel about me over time and I feel about them over time. Hopefully, whatever it is, it makes sense. But I will stay where I’m wanted. I will stay where I’m needed and treated correct.”

When asked how long he wants to play with Tatum, Brown keeps his focus on the immediate future.

“I just enjoy the time that you have now,” he says. “If it’s your whole career, it’s your whole career. If it’s not, it’s not. Some of the greatest players of all time haven’t finished with their organization. Michael Jordan retired a Wizard. As much as we like it here and enjoy being here, you see where life takes you. You see how the process goes. All you do is really focus on what’s in front of you right now, to be honest. But I don’t really know or want to answer that question because that type of stuff makes Celtics fans speculate and go crazy. Especially right now, I’ll just say we’ll get there when we get there.”


AD for J brown + r Williams
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:54 am    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
Quote:
Jaylen Brown is noncommittal on his future with the Boston Celtics as he is one year away from free agency. Brown is unlikely to sign an extension with the Celtics because he would make considerably more money as a free agent. The situation could change if he makes an All-NBA team this year and is offered a supermax.

“I don’t know. As long as I’m needed. It’s not up to me,” Brown told The Ringer. “We’ll see how they feel about me over time and I feel about them over time. Hopefully, whatever it is, it makes sense. But I will stay where I’m wanted. I will stay where I’m needed and treated correct.”

When asked how long he wants to play with Tatum, Brown keeps his focus on the immediate future.

“I just enjoy the time that you have now,” he says. “If it’s your whole career, it’s your whole career. If it’s not, it’s not. Some of the greatest players of all time haven’t finished with their organization. Michael Jordan retired a Wizard. As much as we like it here and enjoy being here, you see where life takes you. You see how the process goes. All you do is really focus on what’s in front of you right now, to be honest. But I don’t really know or want to answer that question because that type of stuff makes Celtics fans speculate and go crazy. Especially right now, I’ll just say we’ll get there when we get there.”



It’s happening!!! 😈😈😈

🤣😂🤣
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:55 am    Post subject:

vasashi17+ wrote:
^To add some context to JB’s comments…

Quote:
What has your experience been like as a Black professional athlete in Boston?

There’s multiple experiences: as an athlete, as a basketball player, as a regular civilian, as somebody who’s trying to start a business, as someone who’s trying to do things in the community.

There’s not a lot of room for people of color, Black entrepreneurs, to come in and start a business.

I think that my experience there has been not as fluid as I thought it would be.


What do you mean by that?

Even being an athlete, you would think that you’ve got a certain amount of influence to be able to have experiences, to be able to have some things that doors open a little bit easier. But even with me being who I am, trying to start a business, trying to buy a house, trying to do certain things, you run into some adversity.

Other athletes have spoken about the negative way that fans have treated Black athletes while playing in Boston. Have you experienced any of that?

I have, but I pretty much block it all out. It’s not the whole Celtic fan base, but it is a part of the fan base that exists within the Celtic nation that is problematic. If you have a bad game, they tie it to your personal character.

I definitely think there’s a group or an amount within the Celtic nation that is extremely toxic and does not want to see athletes use their platform, or they just want you to play basketball and entertain and go home. And that’s a problem to me.



Methinks it’s gonna be more than just a supermax issue when it comes to departing that town…

JBezzy, you know what to do!


Yaaaasssss!!!! 😈😈😈

😂🤣😂
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:03 am    Post subject:

Jaylen is not a free agent until 2025.
The celtics will be desperate in getting him to sign that extension next season or trading him by the deadline.

Makes me more thankful Joe Tsai and Sean Marks didn’t push harder on the celtics FO to take KD for JB and RW3.
Or maybe they did and just kept getting rejected?

Who knows. Either way my petty levels are just at an all time happy knowing Jaylen doesn't have them in his 5 year plan 😈🤣😂😈🤣😂😈
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:14 am    Post subject:

Nope Jaylen Brown is a free agent next summer (2024).

We have LBJ/AD on the books then and it's unlikely we would have the kind of cap space to make it work.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:42 am    Post subject:

wolfpaclaker wrote:
I don’t agree dog fight. The play ins to me seem like a lock. No way I see all these teams keeping up these last few games. Lakers have to win 6/10 and they are in. Should be rather straight forward. The issue is that they may have to win 2 play in games. That’s what they should try to avoid.

I have a hard time seeing this team win 2 play ins. But if we can get 8th I feel we’re going to make the playoffs.


In 2-3 months they have gone from the 13 seed to the 11 seed. I said months ago that the games behind the playoffs is secondary to the number of teams that they have to pass. If they finish 5-5 they still need 4-5 teams to finish worse, not just one team. I have been predicting the 9 seed and remain hopeful that they make that.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:46 am    Post subject:

In light of all this I'm going to revive my 2024 pipe:

1. Trade for Anunoby this summer and leverage his low cap-hold in 2024 before resigning him. Send them some combo of Vando/Beas/Mo and our remaining picks.

2. Lebron leaves to be with Bronny and we sign Jaylen. Dejounte would be plan B.

AD
Rui
OG
Jaylen
Reaves

This would assume both Austin and Rui sign deals starting in the lower teens. If we are somehow able to avoid including Vando in the OG deal then you plug him in instead of Rui maybe. It would also require clearing out DLO's salary which is why it's ideal to retain him at a more team-friendly deal. This may be something you look to do around the deadline if the team is clearly under-performing. It would also require a cap-smoothing scenario that sees the cap jump past $150 million. And finally, AD would have to opt-in instead of exercising his ETO. There would be some financial incentive as the cap would probably make another significant jump in 2025.

Anyway...like I said...pipe. And depth will be an initial concern obviously.
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Last edited by gng930 on Tue Mar 21, 2023 9:03 am; edited 3 times in total
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:53 am    Post subject:

Do we keep or trade the lottery pick?
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gng930
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:55 am    Post subject:

wolfpaclaker wrote:
yinoma2001 wrote:
wolfpaclaker wrote:
I don’t agree dog fight. The play ins to me seem like a lock. No way I see all these teams keeping up these last few games. Lakers have to win 6/10 and they are in. Should be rather straight forward. The issue is that they may have to win 2 play in games. That’s what they should try to avoid.

I have a hard time seeing this team win 2 play ins. But if we can get 8th I feel we’re going to make the playoffs.


I think it's def a dog fight.

I don't see Dallas/Minny/OKC/Utah/Pels/Lakers giving up. Out of those 6 teams, only 4 make it into the play-ins. Blazers I think will cut the cord on the season. That group of 6 is separated by 1.5 games total.

Pels have been horrible without Zion. They should beat themselves. I mean I can't see them get more than 38 wins. Utah is tricky, they go on streaks. They can play well then they can be awful. Again, based on their past, I would say more than 39 wins is being way too optimistic for them.

So for me, the number is 40. If we get 6 wins, we are in easily. Unelss we completely make a (bleep) out of it, we have been able to win 5-6 out of our 10 games for a while now, since the 2-10 start. That's pretty much what we've been. A team that wins 2-3 then loses a few. Etc.

I see us making this, but the main question is what seed. I think at one poingt we had a real shot at having to play no play in games, or at most 1 (and 2 cracks at it). Now we may have to win 2 to get in. Which will be tough.


The problem is that Utah and OKC are winning games they shouldn't and that NO also has a soft schedule. Losses against OKC or Utah will probably break us. Minny will be a problem with KAT and ANT expected to back by then. LAC being on a back-2-back is a scheduled loss IMO. The other problem is that we are losing games that we should. The uninspiring victory against Orlando is hopefully not harbinger. I don't see 6 wins as a given. Other than Houston (I think), there's no doormats on the schedule. Chicago has been doing better and you know PatBev will get up for those games. Unfortunately, a lot will be riding on Lebron's evaluation on Thursday IMO.
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