2023/2024 Season Starters/Minutes Prediction

[Hanging from Rafters]

I’m excited for this off-season, training camp, pre-season, and the start of the regular season. It should be interesting to see who evolves as the major contributors for each position. I predict LBJ starts…or ends up…at PF and Rui the same at SF. I’ve listed the basic minutes prediction without garbage/injury/fouls consideration. I can see it fluctuating wildly as the season progresses but expect it to shake out eventually to somewhat following loosely the distribution below:

AD 24/ Wood 24
LBJ 32/ (AD 8)/ (Rui 8)
Rui 24/ Vand 24
AR 32/ (Dlo 16)
Dlo 16/ Vinc 32

32 minutes - AD/LBJ/Rui/AR/Dlo/Vinc
24 minutes - Wood/Vand

Obviously it won’t be that basic, others will get minutes. I see MaxC as the most likely poacher of the basic minutes listed above. Cam/Prin/Hayes I predict will be struggling…unless for garbage/injury/fouls…to get on the floor by Dec. Hope I’m wrong 😂
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“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.”

[JUST-MING]

Games played would be a more relevant thread.

[Hanging from Rafters]

[defense]

Davis - 32
Legramps - 30
Vando - 18
Rui - 28
Reaves - 34
Russell 32
Vincent - 16
Wood - 20


Those are my wish list minutes

[nomoreshaq]

240 total minutes

AD: 30
LBJ: 30

Reaves: 28

Dlo: 26
Rui: 26

Wood: 22
Gabe: 22

Prince: 20
Vando: 20
Christie: 16

Reddish: injury replacement, garbage time
Hayes: injury replacement, garbage time

JHS: G-league or garbage or injury replacement
Lewis: G-league or garbage or injury replacement

[KBandKB]

Assuming fully healthy (which likely won’t be the case for a good chunk of the season):

AD (33) - Wood (15)
Vando (18) - Rui (24)- Wood (6)
Bron (32) - Rui (4) - Prince (12)
Austin (24) - Christie (16) - DLo (8)
DLo (20) - Vincent (22) - Austin (6)

[Hanging from Rafters]

[DA1]

It's going to fluctuate. AD will be miss games, Bron will be in and out the line up.

There will be plenty of opportunities for guys who may not seem like they are main stays in the rotation to get good minutes and show out.
There will be games and stretches in the season where AR, DLo, or Rui will be the main go to guys having to carry the load. Games where Gabe or Wood catch fire. Etc, etc.

The depth and talent on this team is exactly what AD and Bron needed to avoid burn out during the 82 game regular season.

[gng930]

I initially had Hayes not getting squeezed out but considering the league is getting smaller I just don't see many teams with two big bodies that we have to match up against. So it feels like Hayes will namely be a situational player against bigger lineups and of course in case of injuries/foul trouble.

Otherwise, I think Vando and Prince's minutes will flux the most depending on the need for POA versus wing defense and spacing.

AD (34), Wood (14)
Bron (32), Wood (8), Rui (8)
Rui (18), Prince (10-20), Vando (10-20)
Austin (30), Gabe (5-10), MaxC (10-15)
DLO (28), Gabe (20)
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[gng930]

[PICKnPOP]

AD (34)/wood 14
Wood (12)/Bron(22)/Rui(14)
Bron (12)/vando (24)/rui(12)
Reaves (32)/Dlo(8)Max (10)
Dlo(24)/Vincent(24)

Or wood can play all of his minutes at the 5 as long as he’s ok defending 5’s while AD is on the court. I doubt AD plays a ton of minutes at the 4 no matter what because we have a lot of 3/4’s on the roster now. Lebron and rui will eat up a ton of minutes there.
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#1

[matigol]

Hayes 18
AD 32
LBJ 31
Wood 11
Rui 24
Vando 17
Prince 19
Cam 9
Reaves 31
DLO 24
Vincent 24


I think Prince will get a good amount of PT
If Cam playing like Playoff-Cam from the Hawks, he'll get more PT
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[dcarter4kobe]

I wonder how does Cam and Hayes respond to being out projected rotation? 2 young guys basically playing for their career. Hope no chemistry issues.
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"He's a Zen master, so he can speak to you, and he doesn't need a microphone; you can hear him in your head, 'Ron, don't shoot, don't shoot.' Whatever, pow, three. I love the Zen, though."

[Hanging from Rafters]

[gng930]

Both have very murky pathways but Cam definitely has a higher chance of cracking the rotation than Hayes. I know many of us don't see him as a guard but I could still see him taking MaxC's minutes with him being assigned the wing role on offense when we have at least two ball-handlers (between Bron, Reaves, DLO, and Gabe) on the floor. A fully realized version of Cam easily beats out MaxC in my opinion.

Through activity alone, it shouldn't be hard for Hayes to have at least the same impact as someone like Wenyen did. He just has a lot more competition than Wenyen did last year and Hayes is easily the least established of all the frontcourt players that are expecting minutes this year. His best hope in my opinion is that he impresses so much during training camp that Ham is forced to carve maybe even just 10 minutes for him a night. He needs to maintain a good attitude, produce efficiently, and scale it up when he gets a minutes boost due to injuries. When you show you can do that for a contender, that's how you potentially get your next big bag. That's less likely if you're a DNP most nights and just subbing in for injuries.

But where do you get those 10 minutes between the 144 minutes at the front-court? At the minimum. you have:
Bron 32
AD 32
Rui 25
Wood 20
Prince 15
Vando 15

That's 139 total, leaving a whopping 5 minutes for Hayes.
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[dcarter4kobe]

If all is healthy I see something around this

AD 32
LeBron 32
Reaves 32
DLO 30
Vando 20
Rui 24
Wood 24
Vincent 22
Prince 14
Christie 10
240

We also are sleeping on Prince I believe. His floor spacing with LeBron/AD will be a major plus.
_________________
"He's a Zen master, so he can speak to you, and he doesn't need a microphone; you can hear him in your head, 'Ron, don't shoot, don't shoot.' Whatever, pow, three. I love the Zen, though."

[Hanging from Rafters]

Good to see Hayes/Vand/Cam/Moi/Fino putting in work in the pick-up game. Of those 5, Vand will likely be the only one to get significant minutes so he seemed perhaps out of place. I would have thought Fudge would have had his spot. It would be great if Hayes/Cam proved me wrong and contributed productively to earn unexpected minutes. The SG Moi could be a wild card, appears capable on both sides of the ball.
_________________
“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.”

[ArminNBA]

What is your ideal 2023-2024 rotation and minutes distribution?

You can follow the build below by using 3-minute increments, just for ease. Also, of course, this rotation and minutes distribution presumes health, no foul trouble, and a competitive regular season game (no blowout either direction). As we all know, we rarely get to see the team in those conditions, but I thought it'd be fun to see how LGers would run the rotation with the Lakers at full health.

Minutes Distribution
D'Angelo Russell - 27
Austin Reaves - 33
Jarred Vanderbilt - 18
LeBron James - 33
Anthony Davis - 33

Gabe Vincent - 21
Max Christie - 15
Taurean Prince - 18
Rui Hachimura - 21
Christian Wood - 21

Rotation

Q1 12-6
DLo
Reaves
Vando
LeBron
AD

Q1 6-3
Gabe
Reaves
Prince
Rui
AD

Q1 3-0
Gabe
Christie
Prince
Rui
Wood

Q2 12-9
Gabe
Christie
Prince
LeBron
Wood

Q2 9-6
Gabe
Christie
Vando
LeBron
Wood

Q2 6-3
DLo
Reaves
Vando
Wood
AD

Q2 3-0
DLo
Reaves
Rui
LeBron
AD

Q3 12-6
DLo
Reaves
Vando
LeBron
AD

Q3 6-3
DLo
Reaves
Prince
Rui
AD

Q3 3-0
Gabe
Christie
Rui
LeBron
Wood

Q4 12-9
Gabe
Christie
Prince
LeBron
Wood

Q4 9-6
Gabe
Reaves
Prince
Wood
AD

Q4 6-0
DLo
Reaves
Rui
LeBron
AD

Key Notes

— It was important for me to keep LeBron and AD at 33 minutes max, but I am more than open to keeping both at 30 minutes or slightly under. I think this team has the talent and depth, but maybe I'm being too optimistic? We'll see how the season plays out, but I would actually be ecstatic if they were closer to 30mpg.

— While Vando is in my starting lineup (mostly as an assumption that the Lakers will use Vando to start against players like Luka), I do believe Rui will be in the closing unit because of his offensive repertoire and ability to compete on the defensive end. Unfortunately, unless Vando develops a reliable corner 3pt shot, it'll be tough for him to close games because the coaches will try their best to avoid having to play 4 vs. 5 on offense in a tight game.

— Except for a 3-minute window at the end of the 1st quarter, I found a way to stagger Austin and LeBron's minutes so at least one of them is in the game at all times to operate as the team's lead playmaker. Frankly, it wouldn't have been hard to just add Austin in for Q1 3-0 and have the young budding star play 36mpg, but I wanted to avoid any Laker going above 33 minutes.

— I tried my best to surround Wood with as much defense as possible, so his weakness as a rim protector is mitigated. He's pretty much always playing alongside some of the Lakers' better perimeter defenders (Gabe, Christie, Prince, etc.) and I even found two 3-minute stretches (one in each half) for Wood to play next to AD.

[slavavov]

While DLo should be in the starting lineup, they should also have him out there when LeBron is resting to make sure we have a legit ball-handler/facilitator on the court. I don't think Reaves is a natural one, although he might surprise us in that area.
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[miggz23]

I have Vando playing more minutes, and Christie playing less. Ham expect to play Prince at SG position. Christie might not get consistent minutes from the start. I think Hayes will get those minutes.

But the rest of the minutes looks about right.

[2019]

AD (32), Wood (16)
LeBron (28), Prince (12), Wood (8)
Rui (30), Vando (12), Prince (6)
Austin (32), D'lo (6), Vando (10)
D'lo (22), Vincent (26)

Those are the most win now players and the most proven, IMO. That's how I see the ideal mins distribution come playoffs.

Christie might be ready but we have too much depth for him to gets consistent mins. Reddish and Hayes, Max will get mins but only when Bron or AD are out. JHS and Lewis will get virtually zero mins all season.

[gng930]

@Armin - that's as solid of a breakdown as I've seen. Just nitpicking (not that I could do any better) but I agree we should always have one of Bron/Reaves/DLO on the floor and even at least two of them most of the time. So I don't like going 9 straight minutes between the end of the first and beginning of the second with DLO and Reaves off the floor. And like you, I especially don't like that lineup at the end of the first. You generally want to avoid any runs from the other team at the end of quarters and I don't think a Gabe/Wood combo with some 3-and-Ders will generate a lot of offense. Wood has also not done well historically as the sole rim protector. Rui is a solid post defender and has tried to study AD but I'm not sure enough of AD has rubbed off on him that we can depend on him as an additional rim protector. So it's a bad recipe potentially on both sides.
_________________
Luxury Tax/FA Spreadsheet (Save to your Google Drive to edit)

[Hanging from Rafters]

Mods- Please merge my thread with this one or vice versa so responses can be captured in a be same discussion.

Prediction
I’m excited for this off-season, training camp, pre-season, and the start of the regular season. It should be interesting to see who evolves as the major contributors for each position. I predict LBJ starts…or ends up…at PF and Rui the same at SF. I’ve listed the basic minutes prediction without garbage/injury/fouls consideration. I can see it fluctuating wildly as the season progresses but expect it to shake out eventually to somewhat following loosely the distribution below:

AD 24/ Wood 24
LBJ 32/ (AD 8)/ (Rui 8)
Rui 24/ Vand 24
AR 32/ (Dlo 16)
Dlo 16/ Vinc 32

32 minutes - AD/LBJ/Rui/AR/Dlo/Vinc
24 minutes - Wood/Vand

Obviously it won’t be that basic, others will get minutes. I see MaxC as the most likely poacher of the basic minutes listed above. Cam/Prin/Hayes I predict will be struggling…unless for garbage/injury/fouls…to get on the floor by Dec. Hope I’m wrong 😂
_________________
“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.”

[Hanging from Rafters]

Mods - Please merge with similar thread, Thanks
_________________
“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.”

[Dr. Laker]

DLO - 28
AR - 30
RUI - 28
LBJ - 30
AD - 31
Gabe - 20
Christie - 18
Vando - 20
Wood - 20
Hayes - 15
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