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ChefLinda
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 2:29 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Matthew Dowd @matthewjdowd (former GOP strategist)

folks, yes this is close race, and Harris has advantage. in 2012, at this same time, NBC had race tied, CBS had it +2 Obama, ABC had it +3 Obama. Obama won by 3.9%. This time NBC has race tied, CBS has Harris +3, ABC has Harris +2. Almost exactly the same as 2012. Run through the finish line.
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 2:31 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Cornell Belcher @cornellbelcher (Democratic pollster)

CBS poll has Harris very much in line with Biden 2020 performance with Black voters. But don’t ride the #Pollercoaster people, stop focusing on the polls, they are all over the place, just have a voting plan and get your family & friends to the voting booth.
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trmiv
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 2:50 pm    Post subject:

Simon Rosenberg has a similar take to Bouzy. Simon is also one who said the red wave wasn’t going to happen in 2022 and that red wave pollsters were pushing a narrative. If Dems get out and vote, we will win.

I had a Dem GOTV person come to my house today checking on if we are early voting. I told him we’re taking my wife’s mom and voting on the 22nd, the day after early voting opens. He marked it on the app they use so they don’t have to waste anymore GOTV efforts on us. Iwas happy to see that!
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 2:59 pm    Post subject:

Trump needs even more attention

A MAGA brought his gun to the rally.. Was detained and questioned and released on $5000 bail

Media runs with it as potential third attempt on that piece of (bleep) life

I wish there was a way for his followers to recognize this is real life.. not a video game.. not his tv show etc.. real people get hurt by his ugly speeches

FEMA Responders are having to rearrange their whole lives because MAGA is givng death threats to FEMA Responders.....

I remember Biden communicated with Putin that any cyberattack on our power or utilities will be an act of war. I think Trump is the act of war.. I think the Kremlin has been directing him to ruin this country and I hope his life ends the same way as Julius Rosenbergs did.
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 3:06 pm    Post subject:

3 weeks from finding out whether the country will implement Project 2025/ Agenda 47....
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 3:34 pm    Post subject:

DaMuleRules wrote:
lakersken80 wrote:
Apparently Dennis Quaid is a Trumper.


Huge Trumper and has been very vocal about it for a while. He says, “Yeah Trump’s an ahole, but he’s my ahole”.


And he’s only 1/10th as virulent as his brother
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ChefLinda
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 3:42 pm    Post subject:

Stephen Miller and Project 2025 looking stuff up for Trump to use as a fascist dictator:

Quote:
Republican Voters Against Trump @AccountableGOP

Trump: "I will invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. Can you imagine? Those were the old days when they had tough politicians, have to go back that long. Think of that, 1798. Oh, it's a powerful act. You couldn't pass something like that today."


Quote:
Andrea R MD @AndreaR9Md

Used to incarcerate Japanese Americans during WW11 in case you were wondering where this is heading.
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 3:44 pm    Post subject:

trmiv wrote:
Simon Rosenberg has a similar take to Bouzy. Simon is also one who said the red wave wasn’t going to happen in 2022 and that red wave pollsters were pushing a narrative. If Dems get out and vote, we will win.

I had a Dem GOTV person come to my house today checking on if we are early voting. I told him we’re taking my wife’s mom and voting on the 22nd, the day after early voting opens. He marked it on the app they use so they don’t have to waste anymore GOTV efforts on us. Iwas happy to see that!


They are both excellent follows. Bouzy is a lot more partisan and hyperbolic at times, but both understand the inside game and numbers very well. Reading them is an excellent basic primer on electoral analysis. Fwiw, i agree with both that this election is being sold as far more favorable to Trump than anything I can parse out would support.
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ChefLinda
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 4:06 pm    Post subject:

Just for comparison purposes with recent national and state polls, here are some recent Senate/Governor race numbers in swing states. All favor the Democrat. GOP machinery may be flooding the presidential race with junk polls, but if the these Democrats win their respective races, then it follows Harris would win on the same ticket.

Quote:
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers
·
Oct 10

#New Senate/Governor polls

Arizona - 🔵 Gallego +7
Michigan - 🔵 Slotkin +5
Nevada - 🔵 Rosen +8
N. Carolina - 🔵 Stein +16
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Casey +2
Wisconsin - 🔵 Baldwin +4

Emerson #B - LV - 10/8


Ignore the individual polls but notice the trends and use your common sense. Would like to see other polling on Senate races to compare.
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Omar Little
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 5:27 pm    Post subject:

ChefLinda wrote:
Just for comparison purposes with recent national and state polls, here are some recent Senate/Governor race numbers in swing states. All favor the Democrat. GOP machinery may be flooding the presidential race with junk polls, but if the these Democrats win their respective races, then it follows Harris would win on the same ticket.

Quote:
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers
·
Oct 10

#New Senate/Governor polls

Arizona - 🔵 Gallego +7
Michigan - 🔵 Slotkin +5
Nevada - 🔵 Rosen +8
N. Carolina - 🔵 Stein +16
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Casey +2
Wisconsin - 🔵 Baldwin +4

Emerson #B - LV - 10/8


Ignore the individual polls but notice the trends and use your common sense. Would like to see other polling on Senate races to compare.


To put that a different way, the likelihood that they would vote against Trump up top and return home down ballot is higher than the opposite (see 2020). If they are voting Trump up top, very little chance they are going Dem at the senate level. Lot of noise there. Multiple possibilities.
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 5:34 pm    Post subject:

There will definitely be crossover voters, but some of these races for senate/governor are so far in the Dem favor that it’s hard to see crossover being that big. I have a hard time seeing a situation where Gallego wins by 6-7 and Harris loses Arizona. Or Rosen wins by 6+ and Harris loses Nevada. The closer races are where it’s less certain. Like 2016/2020 where NC went for Trump but Cooper won NC. But NC was close both times.
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 5:38 pm    Post subject:

My votes for the 2024 election have been counted. Kamala and all Democrats down the ballot. In California, the deadline to register to vote for any election is 15 days before Election Day,

REGISTER & GET OUT AND VOTE!!
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 6:13 pm    Post subject:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-coachella-rally-attendees-were-010925587.html

What a shame. Its almost like its a metaphor for how he treats the people who support him.
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2024 9:32 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-coachella-rally-attendees-were-010925587.html

What a shame. Its almost like its a metaphor for how he treats the people who support him.


He could literally piss on every single one of them & it won't matter one bit as long as he hates the same people they hate.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 4:37 am    Post subject:

https://www.wbtv.com/2024/10/14/fema-contractors-ordered-stand-down-hotels-after-security-threats-messages-show/

Quote:
FEMA contractors ordered to “stand down” after security threats, messages show


Quote:
An inspection agency that works as a contractor for the Federal Emergency Management Agency has ordered its employees in western North Carolina to cease inspections over the weekend and return to hotels, WBTV has confirmed.

Sunday evening, the Washington Post first reported messages about reports of threats to FEMA-affiliated workers in Rutherford County. WBTV has independently confirmed that reporting with sources with direct knowledge of the threats.

The news comes after FEMA workers across Hurricane Helene’s disaster zone in western North Carolina have been targeted with misinformation and rumors about the federal government’s recovery operations in the area.


Quote:
“Effective immediately, disaster wide -- cease inspections today and return to your hotels,” an alert from Vanguard Inspection Services read on Saturday. “FEMA received news that the Title 10 (active military unit deployed to NC) came across some trucks of militia units who said they were out hunting FEMA personnel.”


Militia hunting FEMA personnel. Trump did this. Trump’s lies did this. Just people working to help people after a disaster and they are being hunted by Trump militias. This is the kind of thing you Trump supporters have done to this country by enabling him and his lies.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 5:43 am    Post subject:

trmiv wrote:
https://www.wbtv.com/2024/10/14/fema-contractors-ordered-stand-down-hotels-after-security-threats-messages-show/

Quote:
FEMA contractors ordered to “stand down” after security threats, messages show


Quote:
An inspection agency that works as a contractor for the Federal Emergency Management Agency has ordered its employees in western North Carolina to cease inspections over the weekend and return to hotels, WBTV has confirmed.

Sunday evening, the Washington Post first reported messages about reports of threats to FEMA-affiliated workers in Rutherford County. WBTV has independently confirmed that reporting with sources with direct knowledge of the threats.

The news comes after FEMA workers across Hurricane Helene’s disaster zone in western North Carolina have been targeted with misinformation and rumors about the federal government’s recovery operations in the area.


Quote:
“Effective immediately, disaster wide -- cease inspections today and return to your hotels,” an alert from Vanguard Inspection Services read on Saturday. “FEMA received news that the Title 10 (active military unit deployed to NC) came across some trucks of militia units who said they were out hunting FEMA personnel.”


Militia hunting FEMA personnel. Trump did this. Trump’s lies did this. Just people working to help people after a disaster and they are being hunted by Trump militias. This is the kind of thing you Trump supporters have done to this country by enabling him and his lies.


I think it’s more intentional than supporters just randomly acting on Trump’s lies. Now the Republicans can say, “See! FEMA is not doing its job. They are just kicking back in their hotel rooms; not helping people.” A FOX et al will run with that narrative.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 8:22 am    Post subject:

In any other reality they would be labeled terrorists and immediately arrested.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 8:24 am    Post subject:

Harris doing an interview with Bret Baier on Fox. Airs Wednesday.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:06 am    Post subject:

bertrome wrote:
lakersken80 wrote:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-coachella-rally-attendees-were-010925587.html

What a shame. Its almost like its a metaphor for how he treats the people who support him.


He could literally piss on every single one of them & it won't matter one bit as long as he hates the same people they hate.


The only brilliance of Trump is he figured out how to cut the ingredients list of bread and circus in half.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:11 am    Post subject:

Trump uses the Nazi Joseph Goebbels dogma “Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”. It's dangerous.

An aside: I'm going to step off the curb and offer an opinion. I opine Kamala may lose the election because of 2 reasons

1) She's a woman
2) She's Black

Is America going to vote for a woman, especially a Black woman?
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:21 am    Post subject:

DaMuleRules wrote:
trmiv wrote:
https://www.wbtv.com/2024/10/14/fema-contractors-ordered-stand-down-hotels-after-security-threats-messages-show/

Quote:
FEMA contractors ordered to “stand down” after security threats, messages show


Quote:
An inspection agency that works as a contractor for the Federal Emergency Management Agency has ordered its employees in western North Carolina to cease inspections over the weekend and return to hotels, WBTV has confirmed.

Sunday evening, the Washington Post first reported messages about reports of threats to FEMA-affiliated workers in Rutherford County. WBTV has independently confirmed that reporting with sources with direct knowledge of the threats.

The news comes after FEMA workers across Hurricane Helene’s disaster zone in western North Carolina have been targeted with misinformation and rumors about the federal government’s recovery operations in the area.


Quote:
“Effective immediately, disaster wide -- cease inspections today and return to your hotels,” an alert from Vanguard Inspection Services read on Saturday. “FEMA received news that the Title 10 (active military unit deployed to NC) came across some trucks of militia units who said they were out hunting FEMA personnel.”


Militia hunting FEMA personnel. Trump did this. Trump’s lies did this. Just people working to help people after a disaster and they are being hunted by Trump militias. This is the kind of thing you Trump supporters have done to this country by enabling him and his lies.


I think it’s more intentional than supporters just randomly acting on Trump’s lies. Now the Republicans can say, “See! FEMA is not doing its job. They are just kicking back in their hotel rooms; not helping people.” A FOX et al will run with that narrative.


Yep.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:24 am    Post subject:

jodeke wrote:
Trump uses the Nazi Joseph Goebbels dogma “Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”. It's dangerous.

An aside: I'm going to step off the curb and offer an opinion. I opine Kamala may lose the election because of 2 reasons

1) She's a woman
2) She's Black

Is America going to vote for a woman, especially a Black woman?


I don't think either of those factors are the reason she loses. I think the biggest factor is that the populace's senses have been so dulled by the lies and mis/disinformation that they don't know what to think, so they're reverting to the devil they know. That's the best reasonable explanation for why so many people would vote against their own observations, senses, instincts, values and interests.

Trump has exhausted 47% of the country into submission. The other 1% knows exactly what's going on but they cynically think they benefit from the looming disintegration of the country.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:42 am    Post subject:

Heartburn wrote:
jodeke wrote:
Trump uses the Nazi Joseph Goebbels dogma “Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”. It's dangerous.

An aside: I'm going to step off the curb and offer an opinion. I opine Kamala may lose the election because of 2 reasons

1) She's a woman
2) She's Black

Is America going to vote for a woman, especially a Black woman?


I don't think either of those factors are the reason she loses. I think the biggest factor is that the populace's senses have been so dulled by the lies and mis/disinformation that they don't know what to think, so they're reverting to the devil they know. That's the best reasonable explanation for why so many people would vote against their own observations, senses, instincts, values and interests.

Trump has exhausted 47% of the country into submission. The other 1% knows exactly what's going on but they cynically think they benefit from the looming disintegration of the country.


I agree.
I should have listed it. I spoke about it in my post mentioning Joseph Goebbels but I don't discount my reasons.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:54 am    Post subject:

ChefLinda wrote:
In any other reality they would be labeled terrorists and immediately arrested.


Biden should schedule an immediate Presidential Address and
Explain anyone caught speaking or typing threats against FEMA WILL BE PROSECUTED to the highest letter of the law

Anyone who physically verbally or otherwise confronts a FEMA employee will be immediately incarcerated and terrorism charges will be filed

This topic is one that makes me the angriest out of everything Trump has done. God needs to remove Trump

All these fake attempts on his life are being paid for by someone to get him some martyr points
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2024 10:03 am    Post subject:

ocho wrote:
Harris doing an interview with Bret Baier on Fox. Airs Wednesday.


I just saw this too! I don't watch (much of) this Bret Baire guy, so I don't know how pro-Trump his questions are going to be, but he is much less pro-right than other Fox-News people like Hannity, Ingrahm or Watters are.

ALSO: I'm sure the right, will frame this as Kamala "knowing she is losing and desperate", but she has been doing a lot of interviews lately and should be well prepared. But whatever the case, I'm happy to see her do a non-friendly network interview!

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-agrees-her-first-fox-news-interview-what-we-know-1968786

I'll be watching...!
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