Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:39 am Post subject: 2021 NBA Draft Board
Rough list of guys I've been watching. Guys I like a ton are in bold.
1. Cade Cunningham - Think he should have been an NBA player before the season started, and that was before his jumpshot really kicked in. Gets criticized for turnovers, and yet he's +/- 1% in TO rate with the other remaining "elite" PG prospects of this class.
2. Evan Mobley - Legit like watching KG in an LMA body. Really fluid, active athlete, unselfish almost to a fault, but really love his 2-way play and as close to an elite big with reflecting guard skills as it gets.
3. Jalen Suggs - I question his PG-like size but him playing like a 3/2, but he's the best remaning.
5. Moses Moody - Wing shot maker with a knee problem. Full upside is some level of Khris Middleton.
8. Jaden Springer - Basically a wing player on high end PG or SG size. +3 wingspan, but outlier chance to still grow. Great ability to make last second advanced reads in small distances.
4. Keon Johnson - The closest I can imagine that Donovan Mitchell actually looks, just in a different spot in TN instead of Louisville. But that perimeter touch... whew. Just younger than Jalen Green.
6. Jalen Green - NBA high-level athlete, body control, cannot defend, long windup into pull up 3, athletic finisher, average handle, unselfish
7. Jonathan Kuminga - Power wing that's physical but doesn't really have the jumper or the ball handling to be dynamic yet.
9. Josh Giddey - Can absolutely read the floor and get a foot in the paint. Jumper got a lot better over the past 2 months. Also figured where I can put him defensively without being an absolute traffic cone.
10. Scottie Barnes - Boris Diaw in a different frame. Dude is basically a point 4/5.
11. Jalen Johnson[/b] - Doesn't look like the athlete and I question his jumpshot form, but he can really read the floor and that's hard to project sometimes. Questionable scorer in the halfcourt. Derrick McKey type.
12. Franz Wagner - Honestly I should have him 7 or so and makes sense right around Jalen Johnson/Kuminga. Intl experience, was a guard that turned into wing size. Can't shake the Harpring/Hayward vibes.
13. Alperen Sengun - Post player with great patience and IQ.
14. Roko Prkacin- The guy we wished Medvedenko was. Wide body, arms up around the glass, ability to read the floor in the halfcourt, ball handling to push in transition, stretch 4
15. Sharife Cooper - Same as above. He's small, doesn't finish well, but has an incredible knack for lob threats with absurd ability to get FTr, converts well, and takes nearly half his FGA at the rim.
16. Kai Jones - Best WCS athletic ability, without the IQ, scoring aggression, but unusually refined advanced perimeter offensive skill. If I believed in his motor/aggression (and maybe that'll show in workouts), I'd have him Top 3 over Suggs.
17. James Bouknight - Hersey Hawkins vibes
18. Usman Garuba - Small ball 5, but unusually great defensively.
19. Ziaire Williams - Defensive instincts, thin, avoids contact, but willing pull up shooter. Not a great finisher.
20. Corey Kispert - Shooters with size have value. Considerably stronger than guys like Nik Stauskas.
21. Vrenz Bleijenbergh - Probably my favorite for LAL but underweight. Doesn't stop him from being physical. Shoots like LaMelo.
22. Miles McBride - Should have him over Mitchell. Better pull up jumper, different kind of defender.
23. Bones Hyland - Same as above.
24. Jared Butler - 2 playing 2 but a solid guard, Jeff Teague/Kenny Smith vibes.
25. Davion Mitchell - 2 in a 1 body; same kind of shot types as Mitchell when attacking the paint; 3 and D next to creator.
[b]26. Aaron Henry - Modern Stacey Augmon, slim chance he improves 3pt% but I have slim hopes because he's right handed, but shoots lefty, like a righty. Doesn't have strong shoulder lean. Stud defender.
27. Chris Duarte - Someone I think LAL would have an absolute eye on. Excellent late bloomer projection but arguably the best percentage shooter across the entire board.
[/b]
28. Kessler Edwards - Kerry Kittles vibes. Just taller.
29. Tre Mann - Taller Garland without the dynamic handles/quicks.
30. Day'Ron Sharpe - I think he should be a mid to late 1st and is arguably the center the Warriors thought they were getting in Wiseman.
31. Gabriele Procida
32. Terrance Shannon Jr.
33. Josh Christopher - Athletic 2 that reminds me of Nick Young's shot selection.
34. Joel Ayayi
35. Ariel Hukporti
36. Jason Preston - Really understands the game, big for a PG and plays to his strengths; poise and position makes up for quicks, athleticism.
37. Scottie Lewis - Thybulle like, lacks offensive aggression but is still an aggressive defender.
38. Trey Murphy III - Shooter at 4
39. Ron Harper Jr. - Role player shooter, decision maker with low TO rate
40. Sandro Mamukelashvili - Guard like 4 with average defense.
41. Isaiah Todd - Poor man's bosh
42. Daishon Nix - Needs to get into shape and just maybe he'd be along the lines of Andre Miller, but needs a ton of growth
43. Charles Bassey - Solid back up 5.
44. Isaiah Livers - rotation shooter.
45. Neemias Queta - Gorgui Dieng, slightly more fluid athletically, better jumper, rebounding, passing by age.
46. Terry Taylor - NBA talent at 4 but stuck being 6'5"; Jemarrio Jones type. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
Jason Preston - the Creighton game exposed his weaknesses
Slow, lack of dynamic ball handling? That's always been there.
It was his inability to get by his defender and his post ups looked awkward as he contorted his body to get his shot off. Maybe just a bad game but it resulted in him launching 3's from real deep which he did not hit. Part of the problem was his teammates shooting was bad in the 1st half and starting the 2nd They could not generate any points on their own. He did set them up for some open looks but they just put bricks up.
I still believe he has a place in the NBA but just not sure he is more of a backup than starter.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:18 pm Post subject:
PlantedTanks wrote:
Mike@LG wrote:
Quote:
Jason Preston - the Creighton game exposed his weaknesses
Slow, lack of dynamic ball handling? That's always been there.
It was his inability to get by his defender and his post ups looked awkward as he contorted his body to get his shot off. Maybe just a bad game but it resulted in him launching 3's from real deep which he did not hit. Part of the problem was his teammates shooting was bad in the 1st half and starting the 2nd They could not generate any points on their own. He did set them up for some open looks but they just put bricks up.
I still believe he has a place in the NBA but just not sure he is more of a backup than starter.
Yeah, like I said, that's always been there, all season. I just think he's a good prospect because he actually reads the game well and executes well within his skill set.
Maybe he makes it to the NBA and does more advanced level NBA stuff. That's easier to teach than trying to teach Kai Jones how to read the game.
Lucky for Kai he's not a PG. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
is jabari walker expected to be 2022? samaki walker's son, his tape and advanced stats pop
Haven't looked that far ahead. I think you'd like JT Thor.
jabari walker is a freshman at colorado. i don't see if he's expected to come out, and haven't seen his name on any mocks, but he looks like an NBA player to me
just watched some tape on Thor. not a huge fan of his lower body type - looks like he's got skinny hips and long legs, though his hips are pretty quick defensively. otherwise looks interesting, nice stroke and good defensive instincts. maybe a role player, though i'm not sure. offense looks like a big time work in progress w/ only catch and shoot projection, then defensively looks like he'd be quite easy to dislodge physically given his lanky base, so is a matchup dependent defender. hard to stick w/ those limitations. _________________ substance over style
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:00 pm Post subject:
^You're right about Jabari Walker. All of those advanced numbers pop, and not even just a little.
Got caught in a twitter discussion between Terrence Shannon Jr, Aaron Henry, and Chris Duarte, who all seem to be ranked relatively the same, but it just depends what you value most. I'm sure you're busy, but maybe you can find more distinction outside of Henry being more of an NBA defender, Shannon having more burst, and Duarte's elite shooting shooting numbers across the board. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
^You're right about Jabari Walker. All of those advanced numbers pop, and not even just a little.
Got caught in a twitter discussion between Terrence Shannon Jr, Aaron Henry, and Chris Duarte, who all seem to be ranked relatively the same, but it just depends what you value most. I'm sure you're busy, but maybe you can find more distinction outside of Henry being more of an NBA defender, Shannon having more burst, and Duarte's elite shooting shooting numbers across the board.
Very very limited due diligence but here are my first impressions:
Shannon Jr - really similar build to DLo. physical straight line driver, decent shooting stroke, good size. limited laterally. not sure about a role translation to the next level.
Henry - offensive package looks like it has the easiest translation to NBA. one/two dribble pull ups, catch and shoot, attacking hard close outs, midrange/post. nice flow off the dribble, stepbacks, euros, floaters. pro.
Duarte - thybulle vibes. deflections, blocks, and steals out of a zone, long arms, defensive instincts. super limited offense, purely c&s. limited 3+D.
just off first impressions i'd say Henry is heads and shoulders above the other two for upside and versatility, Duarte as a bench rotation role player, and Shannon Jr. might not be an NBA player at all. _________________ substance over style
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:07 am Post subject:
^Yep, I'm right along with Henry/Duarte then Shannon Jr. Everything you said was accurate.
Henry is likely the better or best defender of the 3 on and off the ball. Just Duarte has the JuCo to Div I upbringing and improved a lot with ridiculous shooting % across the board. Even on twitter, it's Henry 1st, then Duarte/Shannon Jr. Just Shannon Jr. is the guy with the FTr because of that bursty straight line drive. Henry has the 58% to 62% finishing at the rim that I'm concerned about.
Duarte for me is the "standard late 1st round pick" for LAL, and it's been about guys more talented or less talented, but he's the bar. A ton of self creation, which I think goes away next level tbh. He's a rotation player at worst, and I don't see the outlier shooting holding at next level to make him a starter or better. He ain't Klay.
Vrenz is the guy I want.
Good to see you around. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
1 Cunningham, Cade--Handles, vision, really good jumper. Not going to rise up on offense, but reasonably positive defensive markers. I wonder if he's more predisposed to the mid-range
2 Mobley, Evan--A real unicorn, if he shows a greater willingness to take threes. Only real concern is the rebounding, on both ends
3 Jalen Suggs--Well predisposed to at-rim seeking rather than lofting up a three, but excellent at drive-and-kicks and general passing. Predisposed to fouling, but top notch defensive rebounding and steal rates. I do wonder how much gravity he'll have in the league. Those Jrue Holiday comps are quite apt, better slasher too.
4 Wagner, Franz--Good ball skills--handles and vision, especially the handles. That's where the RoCo comparisons break down--he's better than RoCo in those respects. But has RoCo's rebounding, steal, block combination. Does lack RoCo's inclination to jack up threes, however, so I wonder if he's more good than a great shooter. But very underrated two-way skills here.
5 Alperen Sengun--Detractors easily point to Sengun's old-school style of game, but I'll point to the guy's strong assist and steal rates especially by size--those are modern stats that bigs of the '90s/00s don't necessarily have. Joker shined well in those stats. Top that with Sengun's age, extreme toughness (especially by Euro standards) and better shotblocking than Joker, he does have elements of Kanter, Nurkic, Jokic, Divac, Sabonis and whatever succeeding Euro big in the league all wrapped into one. Question the d-boards, and he has considerably less gravity than Jokic, but there's waayy too much to like here, and I think he'll find his way.
6 Barnes, Scottie—The canvas that Barnes proffers up is very intriguing—modern day big type stuff. He’s willing to stretch the floor, has handles and court vision that’s probably top 1% stuff even at the NBA level, and has insane horizontal flexibility on defense with a very high steal rate and his ability to move/shift gears. Those three traits alone, at elite levels, and for his size are frankly enough to take a gamble here—he has one of the higher upsides in the draft. But the jumper isn’t there (yet?), and perhaps more importantly, the guy is an absolutely pitiful rebounder on both ends, and offers zero shotblocking—also question the toughness as well. He’s got the Julius Randle handles and passing but none of the grit (rim attacking, rebounding, or foul drawing). For all that horizontal defense and reflexes, will his D just be a-ok due to that lack of toughness? He’ll need a rim protector next to him. Still probably too interesting. Might be a guy who “gets” it on his second team, but we’ll see.
7 Jonathan Kuminga--Part of me wonders if his shot is absolutely, absolutely broken and he'll be relegated to doing at rim stuff on offense only, but he did rate well on offense (and defense) and he can really jump for a big wing guy, and has some nascent passing ability. Power wing--dunker, strong rebounder, some shotblocking. I know it's anti-analytics, but think Harrison Barnes here, might just have a steady career.
8 Jalen Green—Green is an athletic wing—dunk contest type dunker and very good at getting steals—but he’s generally clay elsewhere. Offensively, he has no other real weaknesses but nothing that really jumps out either at this moment. At his age, doing it against G-Leaguers, and the potential for growth with the athletic foundation, that’s worth a lottery pick.
9 Josh Giddey—Giddey is another tall wing passer playing in Australian leagues, lending to LaMelo comparisons (they are also the same age when entering the draft). If we’re being honest, Giddey might be an even better passer (and defensive rebounder) than LaMelo, although he took slightly fewer threes. He’s a triple double machine down under, and also really controls his fouls against vets. He has less tracking instincts than LaMelo, however, and less upside.
10 Jalen Johnson—Johnson’s the first player in my list drafted that will be defense-first (I’m assuming Kuminga grows into his offensive role). His shot likely will be absolutely broken in the league, and because of that he’ll likely be a net negative offensively—even in spite of plus passing ability especially for his size. People might think he’s Ben Simmons, but he has nowhere near the handles or athleticism there. That being said, he’s an absolute plus defender—rebounds, steals, blocks galore—provided he can cut down his abysmal foul rate. Attitude also a concern. But there’s interesting things to grow into here, and he’s young.
11 Springer, Jaden—Springer is another that pops more defensively than offensively—super tough, steals+blocks, there might be some Marcus Smart to him here. On offense he doesn’t really pop—he won’t really space the floor(unlike Smart), and his ball skills are lacking, but he draws a lot of fouls despite a mid-rangey sort of game. But he’s also very young (18.5 at the time of the draft), and other than the gravity issue, with that defensive foundation he might be interesting.
12 Corey Kispert—Excellent long range bomber who can literally elevate the offense by his mere presence, even at the NBA level—that alone elevates him above the many excellent shooters who do little else archetype that populate college. Obviously will giveth away on the other end at the NBA level, but the hope is he can be molded into a solid team defender. You know what you’re getting. Might be the same guy in Year 1 as he is in Year 6, but he fits a need on so many teams it doesn’t matter. I see him as a bit of a 3-4 type at the NBA level who doesn’t necessarily fit one position.
13 Johnson, Keon—He’s kind of Jalen Green-ish; not as athletic, but has a foundation of good vertical athleticism and horizontal reflexes out of the wing position, but more developed handles and vision. Biggest concern is the gravity, and really the jumper efficacy in combination with it (that’s where Jalen Green has the edge). He has the drive and pass thing down, not sure about the triple part in triple threat. He’s also very foul prone as well.
14 Roko Prkacin—Prkacin is a modern big—willing to space the floor, reasonable passer, good horizontal reflexes, quite active on the D-boards. For a guy turning 18.3 at the draft he also doesn’t foul much as well. He’s not a shooter (yet) or a shotblocker, but really a lot of the foundation is there. Surprised he isn’t higher on many boards.
15 Thor, JT—Thor is incredibly intriguing—a big man dunker who is very willing to space the floor, with some nascent handles as well. Vertical and horizontal reflexes, and fundamentals are down (steals+blocks without fouling). He brings zero on the boards and needs to add on weight, but there could be some Kelly Oubre here. If he doesn’t stay in the draft, I’m looking for a big second year at Auburn.
16 Mann, Tre—This dude has handles for days, although he doesn’t use them to pass. He uses them to launch off the dribble jumpers, even from three (although he should stand to take more), and he has a 99% jumper especially considering how many of them are off the dribble. A taller Ben Gordon—he’s got defensive rebounding chops out of the guard position, but doesn’t really pass, and his athleticism is worse than Gordon’s. Still that jumper with those handles is an intriguing cross-section you just don’t see too much.
17 Usman Garuba—Many see OG Anunoby in Garuba, and indeed they are very similar, especially by way of the defensive metrics. Garuba is a beast-ball wing who gets boards on both ends, reflexive for steals and will get a few blocks out of the wing position. And he’s doing this in one of the toughest leagues outside the NBA and won’t turn 19 until the draft. Since 2017, I haven’t seen an international put up this combination of defensive stocks in a while. Needless to say, he’s projected to be a defensive beast—but what makes him slightly more interesting is he’s more willing to take threes than this archetype. If he weren’t willing to do that, maybe we’re talking late 1st rounder. But I’m stopping at the mid-1st because Anunoby was a rare bird—didn’t expect him to shoot like that given his Indiana numbers—and to expect Garuba to make that kind of jump—that’s the real upside, but it could very well not happen either. Even if he’s just a strong defensive wing, this seems like an interesting place to put him.
18 Butler, Jared—Butler has really strong metrics—top notch gravity guy in the league with excellent vision. He’s as secondary playmaker though—he doesn’t get to the rim and doesn’t have good handles—but a really good secondary, not much else you can ask for to play off-ball to an alpha. Sharp defensive instincts too—lots and lots of steals, even a solid shotblocker much like his more renowned defensive teammate Davion Mitchell. He’s likely a very good second/third option in a 5-man unit that greases the wheels on both options, and will have a career for a while.
19 Mitchell, Davion—This guy reeks of the second coming of Mario Chalmers. Hey, he started for a championship team, and like Chalmers, spent a while in college. Mitchell can shoot—not to the degree of teammate Jared Butler—but very good in his own right, and he handles and gets to the rim better. Like Chalmers, absolute ball-thief. He’s older, but very good role player on both ends.
20 Hyland, Nah'Shon—Bones is an absolute gravity guy on offense, but he drew so many Steph Curry comparisons I had to move him here (Curry also didn’t really have the playmaking down—especially in his second year of college). Bones has the desire to launch threes like Steph, but not necessarily the jumper efficacy—which is more reasonable than anything. He also lacks really ball skills (handles/passing), and you wonder if he has Steph’s work ethic to improve them (whether in the league or in college)—this is year 2 of Hyland and Steph made huge gains in Davidson in his junior year. This is a different era, however, but if Hyland can be even a third as good as Curry, this might be worth it. Sharp defensive rebounder and stealer, however, gives some instincts that might translate to override lack of strength. Also, look at this range of players—he brings some dynamism to the mix that the other players don’t necessarily have.
Right now I'm thinking the Lakers end up focusing on someone like Duarte barring someone really interesting being available. NBA teams also seem afraid of drafting older guys and there will be prospects up to 5 years younger than him available, so I could be completely wrong.
Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
Posted: Tue May 04, 2021 4:47 pm Post subject:
Practice wrote:
Right now I'm thinking the Lakers end up focusing on someone like Duarte barring someone really interesting being available. NBA teams also seem afraid of drafting older guys and there will be prospects up to 5 years younger than him available, so I could be completely wrong.
I've had him as "the baseline" for the Lakers pick, and deciding who is better or worse. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
^Yep, I'm right along with Henry/Duarte then Shannon Jr. Everything you said was accurate.
Henry is likely the better or best defender of the 3 on and off the ball. Just Duarte has the JuCo to Div I upbringing and improved a lot with ridiculous shooting % across the board. Even on twitter, it's Henry 1st, then Duarte/Shannon Jr. Just Shannon Jr. is the guy with the FTr because of that bursty straight line drive. Henry has the 58% to 62% finishing at the rim that I'm concerned about.
Duarte for me is the "standard late 1st round pick" for LAL, and it's been about guys more talented or less talented, but he's the bar. A ton of self creation, which I think goes away next level tbh. He's a rotation player at worst, and I don't see the outlier shooting holding at next level to make him a starter or better. He ain't Klay.
Vrenz is the guy I want.
Good to see you around.
I’ve held Vrenz in my top ten since the first time I saw him and have frequently been questioned on The Nbadraft subreddit for this.
Duarte is a guy who I would gladly take lotto if he weren’t 24 and still pretty underdeveloped physically. He’s got the motor and elite catch and shoot percentages that at the very least I think he’s an even defender and a positive on the offensive end for his ability to space the floor. The defense may not translate due to being So weak, but I still think that motor will make him at least average.
Shannon JR is someone I never got the hype on. He plays like a 3 imo, but is built like a small sg and has always been hyped as an elite athlete but I just don’t see it. Vertical and straight line speed yes,.... strength, lateral quickness, second and third jump, reaction time? I just don’t see it.
100% agree on Henry. I liked hun last year when he was testing the waters. I did have hopes that the three point shot would develop but he may just be a guy who can score in the offense but may never be a real threat from deep. Two steps inside the arc tho? It worked for Fisher in those early years.
1. Mobley
2. Cade
3. Suggs
4. Green
5. Kai (hugeeeee bust potential, but I just trust the motor revs up with veterans around to help keep him in line)
6. Wagner
7. Barnes
8. Vrenz
9. Kuminga
10. Roko
11. Keon
12. Moody
13. Springer
14. Bouknight
15. Duarte
16. Butler
17. Kispert
18. Isaiah Jackson
19. Josh Giddey
20. Miles McBride
21. Taevion Kinsey (I just read he’s going back to Marshall)
22. Herb Jones
23. Ibou Dianko Badji (he could be higher if the motor improves
24. RaiQuan Gray
25. Jalen Johnson
26. Davion Mitchell
27. Usman Garuba
28. Isaiah Todd
29. Aaron Henry
30. Josh Christopher
31. Charles Bassey
32. Shariffe Cooper
33. Quinten Grimes
34. Mojave King
35. Kofi Cockburn
36. Tre Mann
37. Joel Ayayi
38. Ayo Dosunmu
39. Filip Petrusev
40. Ziare Williams
41. BJ Boston
42. Alperun Sengun
43. Cam Thomas
44. Daishen Nix
45. Sam Hauser
46. Ariel Hukporti
47. Sandro Mamukelashvili
48. Trey Murphy III
49. Yves Pons
50. Greg Brown
51. JT Thor
52. Amar Sylla
53. Jason Preston
54. Chris Smith (depending how he recovers from ACL injury I could be swayed to move him higher)
55. Marcus Bagley (honestly he’s so low because I’m not expecting him to sign agent)
56. Isaiah Livers
57. Juhann Begarin
58. Ron Harper JR
59. Scottie Lewis
60. Jay Huff
1. Mobley
2. Cade
3. Suggs
4. Green
5. Kai (hugeeeee bust potential, but I just trust the motor revs up with veterans around to help keep him in line)
6. Wagner
7. Barnes
8. Vrenz
9. Kuminga
10. Roko
11. Keon
12. Moody
13. Springer
14. Bouknight
15. Duarte
16. Butler
17. Kispert
18. Isaiah Jackson
19. Josh Giddey
20. Miles McBride
21. Taevion Kinsey (I just read he’s going back to Marshall)
22. Herb Jones
23. Ibou Dianko Badji (he could be higher if the motor improves
24. RaiQuan Gray
25. Jalen Johnson
26. Davion Mitchell
27. Usman Garuba
28. Isaiah Todd
29. Aaron Henry
30. Josh Christopher
31. Charles Bassey
32. Shariffe Cooper
33. Quinten Grimes
34. Mojave King
35. Kofi Cockburn
36. Tre Mann
37. Joel Ayayi
38. Ayo Dosunmu
39. Filip Petrusev
40. Ziare Williams
41. BJ Boston
42. Alperun Sengun
43. Cam Thomas
44. Daishen Nix
45. Sam Hauser
46. Ariel Hukporti
47. Sandro Mamukelashvili
48. Trey Murphy III
49. Yves Pons
50. Greg Brown
51. JT Thor
52. Amar Sylla
53. Jason Preston
54. Chris Smith (depending how he recovers from ACL injury I could be swayed to move him higher)
55. Marcus Bagley (honestly he’s so low because I’m not expecting him to sign agent)
56. Isaiah Livers
57. Juhann Begarin
58. Ron Harper JR
59. Scottie Lewis
60. Jay Huff
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