(In the trenches: See Ukrainians holding the line against Russia)
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Russian forces have been slowed by heavily dug-in Ukrainian troops who are holding the most brutal front line in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region. CNN's Nic Robertson speaks to soldiers holding Ukraine's defense.
(Russia’s war effort hampered by tighter export controls, report says - BBC News)
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Russia's military could be unable to operate the high-tech weapons and communications systems it has been using in Ukraine if the West were to tighten export controls, says a report.
Almost all Moscow's modern military systems depend on western-made microelectronics, according to UK think tank The Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).
Researchers for Rusi spent months in Ukraine, examining 27 of Russia's most modern military systems, either captured, brought down or abandoned by Russian troops.
Journalist and author of "Killer in the Kremlin" John Sweeney argues that while Russian president Vladimir Putin is "pathologically enthralled to violence," his strategy in Ukraine is failing.
(CNN goes to town surrounded on two sides by Russian forces)
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CNN's Nic Robertson goes to a town in eastern Ukraine that stands in the path of Russia's slow but relentless advance westwards and speaks to the residents who are facing constant shelling.
('Big Move' For Ukraine Taking Out 9 Russian Aircraft In Crimea, A 'Bastion Of Pro-Russian Sentiment')
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Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis and former Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes join Andrea Mitchell to analyze recent escalations in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia after Ukraine’s Air Force said nine Russian jets were destroyed in explosions at an airbase in Crimea, which Russia denies. “This is a big move. Taking out nine aircraft is important, but it's also psychologically important. Crimea is a bastion of pro-Russian sentiment,” says Stavridis. “Very good day for the Ukrainians.”
As the Ukraine war approaches the six-month mark, the country targets a Russian air base in Crimea. Ukraine’s military says nine Russian planes were destroyed in the attack but Russia denies the damage. Gen. Barry McCaffery joins.
(Soldiers fighting Russians have a new weapon. See what it can do)
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Ukrainian troops are loving their new Polish "Krabs" artillery system - a high-tech GPS-directed artillery system that is more accurate and safer than the old Soviet era kit. CNN's Nic Robertson joins an artillery battery commander as he calls in fire on Russian positions.
(Analyst assesses risk at Ukrainian nuclear power plant)
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Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, gives his assessment of the risk posed to the nuclear power plant that is located in Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.
(Ukrainian President Zelensky accuses Russia of ‘nuclear blackmail’ – BBC News)
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of “nuclear blackmail” over its use of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant - the biggest in Europe – as a military base.
Invading forces have occupied the site since early March, however, it's still operated by Ukrainian technicians.
More shelling of the plant has been reported, with Ukraine and Russia blaming each other for the attack.
The UN has warned the strikes could "lead to disaster".
With 500 Russian troops killed or wounded every day, according to the latest estimate by U.S. intelligence, Russia’s war in Ukraine has decelerated to a grinding slog, the officials said.
(U.S. Should Take The 'Courageous Decisions Now' In Ukraine, Says Vindman)
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Retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman is faulting the Biden White House for its handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying it is time for the U.S. to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
(Ukraine war: Russia blames 'sabotage' for new Crimea explosions - BBC News)
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A week after an apparent Ukrainian attack on a Russian military base in occupied Crimea, an arms store on another depot has been hit by a series of explosions.
Russian officials said a fire triggered the blasts in the Dzhankoi area - before later blaming "sabotage".
A separate fire broke out at power substation and a railway was damaged.
A string of blasts last week destroyed Russian warplanes at a Black Sea base on the Crimean coast.
(Russia blames sabotage for new Crimea blasts - BBC News)
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A week after an apparent Ukrainian attack on a Russian military base in occupied Crimea, an arms store at another military facility has been hit by a series of explosions.
Blaming "sabotage", Russian officials said a fire triggered the blasts in the Dzhankoi area, another fire hit a power station and a railway was damaged.
A string of blasts last week destroyed Russian warplanes at a Black Sea base on the Crimean coast.
(Calls for urgent access to Ukraine nuclear plant held by Russian forces - BBC News)
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The head of NATO has called for UN inspectors to be given urgent access to a Ukrainian nuclear power plant held by Russian forces.
The seizure of the site at Zaporizhzhia, Europe’s largest nuclear power facility, is said to pose a serious threat to Ukraine and neighbouring countries.
Moscow and Kiev blame each other for shelling in the area.
Clive Myrie presents BBC News at Ten reporting by James Waterhouse in Ukraine.
The growing risk of escalation
The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate.
Here’s why it’s unlikely to last.
August 17, 2022
In the 40 days since the Russian army captured the city of Lysychansk, it hasn’t gained more than about six miles of ground anywhere along the 620-mile front between Kharkiv and Kherson. Neither has Ukraine’s army — despite reports from Kyiv that it would launch a major counteroffensive over the summer. With both sides ostensibly unable to mount an offensive large enough to alter the course of the war, it’s safe to say the fighting has reached a stalemate. But it’s also clear that neither side is happy with the front line where it sits right now, taking even a tentative peace agreement off the table. That leaves two possibilities: a frozen conflict (effectively a loss for both sides) or an escalation.
[snip]
So the war has reached a deadlock?
Not necessarily; both sides are far from exhausting their mobilization capacities.
All signs indicate that both Russia and Ukraine have been unable to build up the reserves necessary to turn the tide one way or the other. But the reasons are different for each country.
Russia lacks men
Russia's military continues to suffer from a manpower shortage; the army itself is more of a hodgepodge of men from various outfits than a set of complete units. It includes soldiers from peacetime formations that weren’t fully staffed, mercenaries, soldiers recruited from the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics,” and hastily-trained “volunteers” from throughout Russia.
The total number of volunteers who have been sent to the front already or will be sent in the coming weeks is no more than a few thousand. Their ranks are supplemented by an unknown number of mercenary fighters from the Wagner PMC and other “private” formations.
Judging by the low combat value of the “volunteer battalions,” they’re likely used less as separate elements and more as stockpiles from which to replace lost troops.
Ukraine lacks weapons
Despite difficulties with the mobilization process, the Ukrainian army has no shortage of manpower.
However, its newly mobilized soldiers have to be trained, which takes time, and armed, which requires help from allies; Ukraine’s own weapon reserves have run out almost completely.
But the weapons it receives from the West, however effective they might be in comparison to Russia’s, are clearly not sufficient to arm dozens of new brigades, which is exactly what Ukraine will need to do if it wants to launch a large-scale offensive.
[snip]
Does that mean escalation is inevitable?
It’s not inevitable, but it is extremely likely — because a frozen conflict with both sides in their current positions would be seen as a failure by both the Kremlin and Ukraine.
Why doesn't Russia want the war to freeze where it is now?
According to an analysis by military historian Igor Kurtukov:
Western sanctions against Russia will make it nearly impossible to rearm its troops.
This war has put the weakness of the Russian army on full display, which means Russia has lost a significant source of negotiating power on the international stage. A frozen conflict would make this obvious to a domestic audience as well.
The war has resurrected NATO’s sense of purpose and prompted Finland and Sweden to join the alliance — which now considers Russia its main adversary.
Ukraine is not “demilitarized,” as Putin promised it would be; on the contrary, its army is now armed with modern Western weaponry.
The line of contact between Russian and Ukraine has grown, and because Russia has recognized and effectively annexed the Donbas “republics,” they no longer serve as a buffer zone. A“frozen” conflict now would thus be even more expensive for the Kremlin than it was before the full-scale war.
In short, a frozen conflict right now would make it patently obvious that the war has been a net loss for Russia.
Why doesn't Ukraine want the war to freeze where it is now?
Kyiv’s officially stated goal right now is the “complete liberation of Ukraine,” including Crimea.
t’s not clear whether Ukraine would accept a return to the pre-war contact like with subsequent “diplomatic efforts to return all territories,” though it could frame that outcome as a victory.
What is clear is that neither of those outcomes would be acceptable to the Kremlin (at least while Putin is in power).
[snip]
In May, the American Center for Strategic and International Studies conducted a series of war games to determine the likeliest outcomes of the war in Ukraine. The researchers found that while all participants frequently said that they wanted to minimize the odds of the conflict intensifying and spreading beyond Ukraine, they also made decisions that increased the risk of escalation. According to the experts, this suggests that the war in Ukraine is “likely the start, not the end, of a new acute phase of great power competition in Eurasia.”
(Nato forces deployed to Latvia amid fears of Russian aggression – BBC News)
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Nato has deployed unprecedented numbers of forces to Latvia, a reaction to fears of future Russian aggression against the Baltic states.
Once part of the USSR, Latvia is now an independent country in the European Union, whose government has expressed staunch support for Ukraine.
But its close cultural ties to Russia is causing concern for the Latvian government - more than a quarter of Latvia’s population identifies as Russian.
(New satellite images debunk Putin's claim about nuclear plant)
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New satellite images from Maxar Technologies of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant show no signs of "systemic shelling", despite claims by Russian president Vladimir Putin that the Ukrainian military was conducting repeated military strikes at the plant.
(Russia Strikes Down Drone Aimed For Black Sea Fleet Headquarters)
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A Ukrainian drone aimed for Russia's Black Sea fleet headquarters was shot down as Ukraine unleashes a series of fresh attacks on the Russia-occupied Crimean peninsula. NBC News' Meagan Fitzgerald reports on how the attack was carried out and its affect on the war between the two countries.
(Ukraine's Crimean fightback having 'psychological impact' on Russia - BBC News)
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Ukrainian strikes on Crimea are having major psychological and operational effects on Moscow's forces, Western officials have told journalists.
Explosions at the Saki airbase on 9 August and other assaults have put more than half of the Black Sea fleet's naval jets out of action, they said.
The fleet has a revered history, but it has suffered a series of humiliations since the invasion began in February.
"This has been 11 days which has seen Crimea destabilised in a way few predicted," says BBC's Ukraine Correspondent James Waterhouse.
Following the most recent attacks this month, scores of Russian holidaymakers were seen fleeing the peninsula, which was previously untouched by fighting.
Videos show attacks at Russian military facilities in Crimea in recent weeks. Retired Lt. General Mark Hertling discusses if Ukraine is on the offensive and what impact it could have.
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