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dcarter4kobe
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Joined: 30 Jul 2005
Posts: 17674
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 Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 4:43 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | gng930 wrote: | | tox wrote: | From the Buha article:
| Quote: | | What’s more, I think the Lakers try to avoid the tax entirely, considering they’d be repeaters after going over the tax this season |
That means not going above $162M? |
Wouldn't be surprised if DLO ends up as casualty if that is in fact a hard target. |
If I’m AD/LBJ and they just got us to the WCF and the team is penny pinching, please ask for trades out. |
 I have been saying for a while the lakers will most likely attempt to avoid the repeater tax.
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dcarter4kobe
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 4:52 pm Post subject: |
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DLO 4y92M
Rui 4y54M
Reaves 2y/24M
LeBron 46.7
AD 40.6
Dlo 20.5
Reaves 11.3
Vanderbilt 4.7
RUI 12
MLE 11.3 (Caris LeVert is a dream)
Christie 1.7
1st 3
2nd 1.1
VM 1.98
VM 1.98
VM 1.98
VM 1.98
Total 160.8
Would put the Lakers below the tax with the full MLE to spend or break in between players. Would love for Bamba,Beasley to return on vet min deals but I'm sure they would receive better offers. Same with Gabriel and Troy Brown. I wouldnt go above 7M or so for Schroder.
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gng930
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Joined: 13 Apr 2001
Posts: 11475
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | vasashi17+ wrote: | ^Thx @AH for posting.
| tox wrote: | From the Buha article:
| Quote: | | What’s more, I think the Lakers try to avoid the tax entirely, considering they’d be repeaters after going over the tax this season |
That means not going above $162M? |
I totally see us doing this cause it gives Jeanie an out in capping team spending. So look for the use of "wanting" to bring in a S&t'd player, and/or using the ntpMLE / BAE to cap our tax bill at roughly 18m by being over the tax line by as much as 7m (ie there is only a 7m difference between tax line and 1st Apron hard cap).
As of right now the tax line is 162m & a 169m 1st Apron on a 134m salary cap. I don't expect that to stick...I believe it will hit the max it can at 165m, 172m and 136m respectively. |
So getting the hard cap means we are a luxury tax team that will pay the repeater tax. But it shouldn't be too much, right if we are artificially capped at 170m-ish?
That's why I brought up my post above. If we do a S&T for someone like Naz, could limit our bill by hard capping ourselves, and then still having most of our guys return and adding the 17/47th picks, Naz (or a comparable type of player), and partial use of the full MLE? |
It's not just about mitigating the tax hit but trying to reset the repeater tax counter. That actually means avoiding the tax 2 years straight. She might not even have to try to avoid the tax for that second year though. Lebron might put her in the position all by himself by opting out next summer or even just sitting out this upcoming season.
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Last edited by gng930 on Wed May 31, 2023 5:14 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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gng930
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 5:04 pm Post subject: |
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| BILBJH wrote: | | Inspector Gadget wrote: | | 10% is a pretty high percentage in trade possibility especially for LeBron, or am I being crazy? |
LeBron will probably play like a good 30 million player.
But he probably won't play like a 50 million player.
If he doesn't get his way and leaves, it doesn't really scare me. |
Certainly doesn't help to basically handicap yourself $20 million. If you had a more liberal owner and/or CBA you could get away with it.
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gng930
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 5:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | vasashi17+ wrote: | | As of right now the tax line is 162m & a 169m 1st Apron on a 134m salary cap. I don't expect that to stick...I believe it will hit the max it can at 165m, 172m and 136m respectively. |
Have you run a no-luxury-tax $165M scenario somewhere? If not, I'm not asking you to do that much work just for grins. I can do the rough numbers. We have about $88M going to Lebron and Davis, so that would leave $77M for the other 12 roster spots. Take out $12M for Reaves, and we're at $65M. Take out $15M for Hachimura (possibly optimistic), and we're down to $50M for 10 roster spots. Take out another $6.5M for Vanderbilt and Christie, and we're down to $43.5M for 8 roster spots. Let's give $20M to Russell, and we're down to $23.5M for 7 roster spots. Let's assume $5.8M for the draft picks (this is the number you use), and we're down to $17.7M for five roster spots.
Those five roster spots have a minimum charge of about $2M, so we're down to about $7.7M in excess money to spend. Let's say that we spend it on Schroder, so he gets $9.7M. If Hachimura or Russell get more, Schroder gets less.
So that's what the no-luxury-tax roster would look like. Of course, we can play around some of these assumptions, but this is a possible pathway. We'd have a starting lineup of Davis, Lebron, Vanderbilt, Reaves, and Russell, with Hachimura, Schroder, Christie, #17, #47, and four vet mins on the bench. We could use #17 and #47 to get a wing and a center, ideally guys who won't need a year or two to develop. A lot of the other considerations (like the hard cap) don't matter, because this is a no-luxury-tax roster. We wouldn't have any flexibility down the line if we wanted to add someone.
I'm certainly not advocating this. But is this more or less what it would look like? |
Not V+ but dcarter posted some numbers which checks out with my calculations too. Something like LBJ, AD, Vando, pick, Max with Reaves, Rui, DLO at your numbers (roughly $45 million combined starting salary) allows you to spend at least $10 million of your MLE. So core 6 + Schro/most of MLE + Max + #1 + merry minimums is plausible in your scenario.
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hydrohead
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Location: Space City
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 5:19 pm Post subject: |
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S&T Dlo+Vando+Bamba+23FRP for
DRoz+Caurso+ Drummond (picks up PO)
DRoz
James
AD
Reaves
Beasley
Caruso
Christie
Rui
Drummond
Bulls get a FRP, lead guard and younger around Lavine.
Russel
LaVine
Vando
Williams
Vuc
Ayo
Bamba
….
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gng930
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Megaton wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | I've been thinking, why not shoot for this?
AR-12.5m (whatever the deal is, first 2 years limited)
Rui-13-14m
DLO-18-22m
-Trade Mo/2nd(s) for S/T Naz Reid (assuming he tells Wolves he is out). I think Brook is out of our price range and will stay with Bucks.
-keep #17 pick
-IIRC, we will have just enough to use the full MLE. Target someone like Bruce Brown with it. I don't think we'll have enough room under the hard cap to use the BAE though, but if we can, target Javon Carter (or Dennis).
I haven't run the exact math but if we could end up with:
DLO/Carter
AR/Max
Vando/Bruce Brown
LBJ/Rui
AD/Naz
Use 17th pick on a 3/D wing. I think we have a deep team, and can still possibly make a trade to upgrade in the future. |
Starting AD at Center again would be a disaster. Part of him not being able to stay healthy this year was getting bodied by bigger players. And clearly since he wasn't the answer to Jokic, we need bigger players to get at Jokic, and Naz is not it. |
Yet there are no easy answers available. Poetl? Nope, likely staying with Raps.
Myles? You know I've been wanting him for years, doubt that happens.
Lopez? Think Bucks will use Bird rights to keep him.
What is the answer? |
We managed to be competitive with Rui guarding Jokic. I think Naz will only help. It also behooves us to get someone a bit more mobile for the more perimeter-oriented playoff matchups. That was the beauty of the 2020 team. We need to find a way to get another dependable perimeter presence though and the BAE probably won't get us that guy. If we don't trust DLO, especially if he's asking for the moon, then we may just have to move on as unfathomable as it may sound to some.
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vasashi17+
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Joined: 13 Dec 2019
Posts: 5611
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 5:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | vasashi17+ wrote: | | As of right now the tax line is 162m & a 169m 1st Apron on a 134m salary cap. I don't expect that to stick...I believe it will hit the max it can at 165m, 172m and 136m respectively. |
Have you run a no-luxury-tax $165M scenario somewhere? |
1. Bron 47.6m
2. AD 40.6m
3. DLo 20m (via full bird for up to a 5yr deal)
4. Rui 15m (via full bird for up to a 5yr deal)
5. Reaves 12.4m (via early bird max for up to a 4yr deal)
6. Schro 9.2m (via partial ntpMLE on up to a 4yr deal)
7. Vando 4.7m
8. MaxC 1.7m
9. 2023 17th overall pick 3.7m
10. 2023 47th overall pick 2.1m (via new 2nd round rookie exception)
11. Vet min (TBJr?) 2m
12. Vet min (Gabriel?) 2m
13. Vet min (Mo?) 2m
14. Vet min 2m (or ShaqH on a nonguaranteed 2.4m)
= 165m in team salary; no tax bill; soft reset towards repeater tax, with full reset if we sick the tax again for the 2024/25 season.
| Quote: | If not, I'm not asking you to do that much work just for grins. I can do the rough numbers. We have about $88M going to Lebron and Davis, so that would leave $77M for the other 12 roster spots. Take out $12M for Reaves, and we're at $65M. Take out $15M for Hachimura (possibly optimistic), and we're down to $50M for 10 roster spots. Take out another $6.5M for Vanderbilt and Christie, and we're down to $43.5M for 8 roster spots. Let's give $20M to Russell, and we're down to $23.5M for 7 roster spots. Let's assume $5.8M for the draft picks (this is the number you use), and we're down to $17.7M for five roster spots.
Those five roster spots have a minimum charge of about $2M, so we're down to about $7.7M in excess money to spend. Let's say that we spend it on Schroder, so he gets $9.7M. If Hachimura or Russell get more, Schroder gets less.
So that's what the no-luxury-tax roster would look like. Of course, we can play around some of these assumptions, but this is a possible pathway. We'd have a starting lineup of Davis, Lebron, Vanderbilt, Reaves, and Russell, with Hachimura, Schroder, Christie, #17, #47, and four vet mins on the bench. We could use #17 and #47 to get a wing and a center, ideally guys who won't need a year or two to develop. A lot of the other considerations (like the hard cap) don't matter, because this is a no-luxury-tax roster. We wouldn't have any flexibility down the line if we wanted to add someone.
I'm certainly not advocating this. But is this more or less what it would look like? |
Well damn, I should have kept reading the rest of your post. 😉
I do believe your figures aren’t overly optimistic and actually seem likely. But yeah, this is probably something we should expect since they duck the tax completely and they “run it back” aligning with the narrative that they learned their lesson from busting up the bubble team & shouldn’t break apart a team that earned their way to a WCF berth…cause continuity! Haha
Like you, I don’t anticipate a favorable outlook with that run it back squad, but I do agree that it’s probably the most likeliest of scenarios to happen.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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| vasashi17+ wrote: | Well damn, I should have kept reading the rest of your post. 😉
I do believe your figures aren’t overly optimistic and actually seem likely. But yeah, this is probably something we should expect since they duck the tax completely and they “run it back” aligning with the narrative that they learned their lesson from busting up the bubble team & shouldn’t break apart a team that earned their way to a WCF berth…cause continuity! Haha
Like you, I don’t anticipate a favorable outlook with that run it back squad, but I do agree that it’s probably the most likeliest of scenarios to happen. |
I don't necessarily think that it's the most likely, but I do think that it's the default scenario. In other words, if there aren't any great options in the free agent/trade market, we can default to this and stay out of the tax. But if there is an opportunity to do something special, Jeanie might be willing to eat a tax bill.
Anyway, thanks for confirming the math. Hopefully, Jeanie will be willing to spend some money, because this roster would be a bit of a downer.
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Laker's Fan
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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| dcarter4kobe wrote: | | I have been saying for a while the lakers will most likely attempt to avoid the repeater tax. |
Yeah, they have been telegraphing for three years that they'd like to avoid the tax this season. Add the expected bump in '24 from the new TV money and they get a full reset on repeater. They basically just need to either let Russell go, or trade him for parts where you can take back some salary b/c it's also filling out your roster. I notice Brooklyn could use a ball handling guard. Their current head coach, Jacque Vaughn, worked closely with Russell in his time in Brooklyn as his player development coach. Now that they're somewhat hitting reset, maybe Russell could make a return the same way Dinwiddie did. A number of his former teammates are still there.
I wonder if you could get Finney-Smith and a couple other pieces (maybe like a Cam Thomas and/or Patty Mills).
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vasashi17+
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 5:52 pm Post subject: |
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^Got ya, @AH…but I think the optics are in her favor if she plans on spending up till the 1st Apron hard cap. Then she can just lean into any narrative as the reason they couldn’t keep spending on the team more…
-“But our key star players wanted a S&t’d Ky (or enter other S&t’d target here)”
-“In order to bring back most of the squad, the only resources we could use to add to that core were the ntpMLE & BAE”
In a way, she has that out with that the triggered hardcap and even if it leaks into tax territory, the most they could look to Kay as a repeat offender that’s hardcapped at the 1st Apron is 18m. (fyi, our projected tax bill this season is for double that amount..as a non repeater).
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ocho
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 5:57 pm Post subject: |
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Agent: They're about to announce the news. Anything else?
Monty: Yeah. Make sure you include how much I got.
| Quote: | | Breaking: Monty Williams and the Detroit Pistons have agreed in principle on a six-year, $72 million deal for Williams to become the franchise’s new head coach, sources tell me and @JLEdwardsIII. The deal is expected to be finalized in the coming days. |
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dont_be_a_wuss
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Posts: 21458
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 6:03 pm Post subject: |
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| ocho wrote: | Agent: They're about to announce the news. Anything else?
Monty: Yeah. Make sure you include how much I got.
| Quote: | | Breaking: Monty Williams and the Detroit Pistons have agreed in principle on a six-year, $72 million deal for Williams to become the franchise’s new head coach, sources tell me and @JLEdwardsIII. The deal is expected to be finalized in the coming days. |
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Detroit is projected to have a good amount of cap space as well. Maybe they plan to go after some high value targets. |
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venturalakersfan
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Posts: 144461
Location: The Gold Coast
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 6:09 pm Post subject: |
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| logical24 wrote: | | nomoreshaq wrote: | | logical24 wrote: | https://fadeawayworld.net/bobby-portis-reportedly-wants-to-join-the-lakers-to-reunite-with-darvin-ham?fbclid=IwAR2Rzr_ZRlSQkd6HZDXMeU8NvbNvD0pQb7ssNDKkZQNM-921a0P5MtydASY
Does this have any truth to it? I would love Bobby Portis! |
And how do we get him? |
He has a player option and his contract is only 10m |
His player option is in 2025
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carjoch831
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Is Naz Reid better than 2020 Javale? |
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ocho
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 6:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Monty Williams’ Pistons deal could reach eight years and $100M based on team options and incentives, sources tell me and @JLEdwardsIII. |
This is wild.
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Bron2AD
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 6:20 pm Post subject: |
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| ocho wrote: | | Quote: | | Monty Williams’ Pistons deal could reach eight years and $100M based on team options and incentives, sources tell me and @JLEdwardsIII. |
This is wild. |
U would think they hiring prime Phil or pop
Seriously wtf |
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Inspector Gadget
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Bron2AD wrote: | | ocho wrote: | | Quote: | | Monty Williams’ Pistons deal could reach eight years and $100M based on team options and incentives, sources tell me and @JLEdwardsIII. |
This is wild. |
U would think they hiring prime Phil or pop
Seriously wtf |
Maybe the Pistons got word from Monty that Ayton situation was really toxic, CP3 declining this season also helps his argument |
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anth2000
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Joined: 16 Apr 2001
Posts: 12165
Location: Pasadena, CA
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Bron2AD wrote: | | ocho wrote: | | Quote: | | Monty Williams’ Pistons deal could reach eight years and $100M based on team options and incentives, sources tell me and @JLEdwardsIII. |
This is wild. |
U would think they hiring prime Phil or pop
Seriously wtf |
Not really…prices have gone up since the Phil days.
10+ million per year for a coach will be the norm… |
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Hanging from Rafters
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Joined: 31 Jul 2018
Posts: 4405
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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| dcarter4kobe wrote: | DLO 4y92M
Rui 4y54M
Reaves 2y/24M
LeBron 46.7
AD 40.6
Dlo 20.5
Reaves 11.3
Vanderbilt 4.7
RUI 12
MLE 11.3 (Caris LeVert is a dream)LW4 7mil (partial MLE)
Christie 1.7
1st 3
2nd 1.1
VM 1.98 Schro 4.3 (partial MLE)
VM 1.98 Mo 4 (BAE)
VM 1.98 TBjr 2.4 (20% raise)
VM 1.98 Gabe 2.4 (20% raise)
Total 160.8
Amended total 161.7
Would put the Lakers below the tax with the full MLE to spend or break in between players. Would love for Bamba,Beasley to return on vet min deals but I'm sure they would receive better offers. Same with Gabriel and Troy Brown. I wouldnt go above 7M or so for Schroder. |
If we’re gonna run it back to avoid the tax penalty without an upgrade we have to bring everyone back for continuity except Beasley…not just random vet mins.
I’m hoping Schro realizes he had a better season in 2020 and couldn’t get more than $5mil so he re-signs for us next year for a $4.3 mil portion of the ntpMLE. We then use the rest of the $7mil ntpMLE for LW4. Staying under the apron I think we could then use the $4mil BAE on Mo. Since we’re running it back without an upgrade, team chemistry and familiarity is more important so Gabe and TBjr are necessary to retain, which should be done by paying slightly more than the vet min.
AD/Mo
Rui/Gabe
LBJ/Vandi/TBjr
AR/LW4/MaxC
Dlo/Schro
+ FRP & 2ndRP.
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DrDent
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Joined: 30 Jun 2016
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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| BILBJH wrote: | If the bridge isn't burned, then there is hope.
Why else would he say that? |
I assume you mean the comment re Brook Lopez.
My take is he is simply pointing out that if Brook *really* wants to be in LA, and *really* wants to be a Laker, it can happen (as long as he takes a relatively humble salary, which he likely can outmatch playing elsewhere). It's not like, say, the Russell Westbrook situation, which I think at least a large majority of posters would say "yea, there's a better chance of one of us winning the state lotto than Russ returning as a Laker."
Nothing more than that. I'd like to see it happen but I think "hope" is probably too hopeful for me, it's more like "pipe dream." 
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DrDent
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Posts: 12975
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 8:33 pm Post subject: |
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| MJST wrote: | | nomoreshaq wrote: | | honest question - does BroLo or Myles Turner make us into favorites (assuming we basically bring everyone outside of beasley/bamba) back? |
Adding Myles turner or Brook Lopez to the team and bringing everyone back except Beasley(whom would be used in a sign and trade scenario for a Lopez or a Turner) would make us the favorites yes. At the very least the expectation is that we make the Finals if we're healthy. |
I think such a roster is better than the current in alot of ways and likely poses issue for Jokic and company. With that said, I'd really like to see (if that happened) a bonus add of another reliable, longer, wing defender who can be some sort of scoring threat (or just hope Vando turns into that).
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DrDent
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 8:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Inspector Gadget wrote: | | anth2000 wrote: | | Inspector Gadget wrote: | | I heard Embiid is 1 of the few bigs in the NBA that has played well against Jokic, that’s the big we need to get if we trade AD |
LOL.... IG, you are a dreamer... |
AD has a lot of value maybe not like Embiid but you can probably make the Sixers GM pick up the phone IMO |
Sure, to mock our GM before hanging up
It's interesting, a number of folks I know who watch alot of eastern conference basketball think Embid is overrated, etc. I don't know about that. All I know is, no way in hell are the sixers trading him for AD.
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MJST
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 9:02 pm Post subject: |
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| logical24 wrote: | https://fadeawayworld.net/bobby-portis-reportedly-wants-to-join-the-lakers-to-reunite-with-darvin-ham?fbclid=IwAR2Rzr_ZRlSQkd6HZDXMeU8NvbNvD0pQb7ssNDKkZQNM-921a0P5MtydASY
Does this have any truth to it? I would love Bobby Portis! |
I don't know but the Lakers really wouldn't have much chance till next off-season when he has a Player Option. He can tell the Bucks he's opting out unless they agree to sign and trade him.
The only way he could force Milwaukee to trade him is if he demanded a trade or something, and thus far he doesn't seem to have done that.
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activeverb
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 9:21 pm Post subject: |
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| DrDent wrote: | | BILBJH wrote: | If the bridge isn't burned, then there is hope.
Why else would he say that? |
I assume you mean the comment re Brook Lopez.
My take is he is simply pointing out that if Brook *really* wants to be in LA, and *really* wants to be a Laker, it can happen (as long as he takes a relatively humble salary, which he likely can outmatch playing elsewhere). It's not like, say, the Russell Westbrook situation, which I think at least a large majority of posters would say "yea, there's a better chance of one of us winning the state lotto than Russ returning as a Laker."
Nothing more than that. I'd like to see it happen but I think "hope" is probably too hopeful for me, it's more like "pipe dream." |
Lopez already has a ring. He's coming off a great season where he finished second in DPoY voting. At age 35, I suspect he's going to sign with whatever team will write the biggest check. Hard to imagine that would be us. |
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