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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:29 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
^
If that's right, incredible. The Spectrum graphic definitely has "3-2" up when he strikes out that guy, so maybe they were just off and it was 0-2.

Yeah, there's no way the graphic is off on this many hitters. Found this link, and it shows all 8 K's he had today. They aren't all 0-2 counts, pretty clearly.

https://www.mlb.com/video/gavin-stone-s-eight-strikeouts


Yeah, even the announcers said 3-2 on one pitch. Yeah, I trust the announcers.

Looks like some weird Spring Training stat keeping on the box scores. Oh well. Not as great as we thought then.
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:55 pm    Post subject:

Good article on Graterol and why he isn't our closer, even-though he has great stuff:

Quote:
Brusdar Graterol has the ‘best stuff on the planet.’ So why isn’t he a closer yet?

The combination of nitro-fueled fastball and nickname doesn’t merely suggest that Dodgers reliever Brusdar Graterol has the makings of a big league closer. It screams it.
The burly right-hander has a nasty two-seam sinking fastball that averaged 99.8 mph with 20 inches of drop and 15 inches of left-to-right break last season and a four-seamer that averaged 99.4 mph and touched 102.5 mph.

“He’s got the best stuff on the planet,” Dodgers reliever Alex Vesia said.

And a moniker to match. Graterol’s Minnesota Twins teammates dubbed him “Bazooka” when he broke into the majors in 2019 because the ball seems to explode out of his hand as if shot from a rocket launcher.

“I think it’s the perfect nickname for me,” Graterol said.


Can't get lefthanders out:

Quote:
But until Graterol can get left-handed hitters out with more consistency, develop a more effective slider to keep hitters off his fastball and avoid the nagging injuries that derailed him the last two seasons, he will not be called “closer.”

Graterol has held right-handed hitters to a .202 batting average, .512 on-base-plus-slugging percentage and two homers in 292 plate appearances over four big league seasons, but left-handers have hit .294 with an .847 OPS and five homers in 183 plate appearances against him.

The 24-year-old Venezuelan threw a cut-fastball — mostly to left-handers — that averaged 95.6 mph with a 22-inch drop but virtually no horizontal break last season, which is why batters hit .302 (13 for 43) on the cutters they put in play.



the slider is the key for him, he needs a better slider:

Quote:
The 6-foot-1, 262-pound Graterol has looked sharp this spring, giving up five hits, striking out four and walking none in five innings of five games, including Saturday’s scoreless inning against the Chicago White Sox in which his slider had better depth.

The slider averaged 90.6 mph with a 30-inch drop and seven-inch, right-to-left break last season, and Graterol held opponents to a .158 batting average (six for 38) in at-bats ending with the pitch. But Roberts believes a better slider will improve Graterol’s modest strikeout rate of 7.2 whiffs per nine innings.

“He’s been searching to find the right shape of that breaking ball,” Roberts said. “Hopefully he can find something he likes and can be consistent with because the fastball command is elite. Hopefully he can find something he can trust to go to in a big spot, that gives him the velocity differential we’re looking for.



on his mechanics:

Quote:
There has been some speculation that because Graterol has a shorter stride and generates much of his torque with his upper body, he is putting more stress on his shoulder and elbow. But the Dodgers have no plans to change his mechanics.

“It’s hard to say that a mechanical change is going to prevent injuries any time a guy is throwing 100 mph,” McGuiness said. “I think you run down a slippery slope trying to change someone’s stride length or anything like that, especially given his throw.”


on losing weight (23 lbs):

Quote:
Graterol didn’t believe his weight was an issue, but modifications to his winter training regimen — he worked out three times a day most days, with more stretching and cardio — and his diet helped him trim down from 285 pounds to 262.

“My weight was up, but my velo was there — I was throwing 102-103 mph,” Graterol said. “But I do feel much better. I feel like I can do everything easier.”

Teammates noticed the weight loss immediately. “I saw him the first day of spring training,” Vesia said, “and I said, ‘You came ready to go this year.’ ” Roberts said the weight loss didn’t necessarily show an increased commitment. “I would say it shows his maturity,” Roberts said.

McGuiness isn’t sure whether or how Graterol will benefit from being lighter.

“It can help him potentially build up a proper foundation to withstand the full season and help him kind of recover a little better,” McGuiness said. “But there is an argument that being a little heavier coming into the year can be beneficial as well. So there are two sides of that coin.”

https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2023-03-19/dodgers-brusdar-graterol-reliever-dave-roberts
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 10:29 pm    Post subject:

1) Dodger article mentions Ryan Noda. I compared him to Max Muncy, but they compared him to Joey Gallo:

Quote:
A minor matter

Noda, who was drafted by the A’s in the Rule 5 Draft in December, continues his Gallo-ean path this spring. Noda reached on an infield single and struck out against May on Sunday. He was also hit by a Nelson pitch, and struck out twice against Stone. Of Noda’s 48 spring plate appearances, 62.5 percent have ended in either a home run (one), walk (eight), or strikeout (21), hitting .184/.333/.342.

As a Rule 5 pick, Noda has to stay on the A’s active roster all year or be offered back to the Dodgers for $50,000. But considering that Oakland won’t be contending any time soon, the A’s have time to wait for Noda to pan out. In his opening day roster projection on Thursday, Martin Gallegos at MLB.com had Noda making the team, and splitting time at first base with Jesús Aguilar.



2) Miguel Vargas is killing it since he's been allowed to swing:

Quote:
Since that restriction was lifted on March 9, also against the A’s, Vargas has seven hits in 17 at-bats with three doubles, a home run, four walks, and a hit by pitch, hitting .412/.545/.765 in 22 plate appearances.



3) Jimmy Nelson threw ONE strike today. Wow:

Quote:
He threw only one strike Sunday — the 13th of his 14 pitches — and after he did got a sarcastic cheer from the crowd at Camelback Ranch.


4) Bullpen prediction:

Quote:
Locks (6):
1) Yency Almonte,
2) Caleb Ferguson,
3) Brusdar Graterol,
4) Shelby Miller,
5) Evan Phillips,
6) Alex Vesia

Most likely (1):
7) Phil Bickford

Options for the last spot (4):
- Jimmy Nelson,
- Justin Bruihl,
- Andre Jackson,
- Jake Reed

Quote:
This is where it starts getting interesting for the Dodgers.

- Jackson is probably the best arm of the bunch, but he would only make sense if the Dodgers want a multi-inning arm out of the bullpen to start the season.

If they don’t, Nelson, Bruihl and Reed could be some of the team’s realistic options.

- Reed is a non-roster invitee so he would need to be added to the 40-man roster, but that shouldn’t be difficult given the amount of injuries on the team.

- Bruihl would give the Dodgers another left-hander.

- As for Nelson, it’s hard to find a pitcher that has had a more ineffective spring. The right-hander is at 90 mph and has a 15.43 ERA. In his outing in the Dodgers' 6-3 loss to Oakland on Sunday, Nelson threw 14 pitches; 13 of them went for balls. At this point, it seems unlikely to see Nelson on the roster despite him being healthy for the first time in years.



https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-2023-bullpen-options




5) Today is Kershaw's birthday. He turns 35

Quote:
Clayton Kershaw turned 35 years old today and that’s something to celebrate.


Last edited by LongBeachPoly on Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:36 am; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:23 am    Post subject:

More on Gavin Stone:


1) Gavin Stone's rise is just phenomenal. This dude was a closer in college with no changeup. Now, he's a starter with one of the best changeups in all of baseball (maybe?), a pitch he learned after being drafted:

Quote:
Stone told DodgersNation.com earlier this spring that even he’s a little shocked by his rapid success as a professional considering he was closing games as a collegiate athlete just three years ago. Since then the organization has worked to build the right-hander up as a starter and helped him add and refine what is now his most dangerous weapon, this devastating changeup.



2) And he even improved his slider. Looks like this guy just has a great feel for pitching. Remember, he was our minor league pitcher of the year last year. In one year last year, he went from A to AA to AAA. Amazing:

Quote:
Dodgers: Prospects Expert Breaks Down Gavin Stone’s Dominant Retooled Slider

When a pitcher makes a big jump in his development — a sight Dodgers fans have become familiar with over the years — it’s almost always because of a new pitch, a retooled pitch, or a change in pitch usage (or some combination of the three). When Los Angeles drafted Gavin Stone in the fifth round of the 2020 draft, they obviously believed in him, but the jump he made in 2022 was enormous.

After posting a respectable 3.76 ERA across Low-A and High-A in his pro debut in 2021, Stone took things to a new level in 2022, posting a 1.48 ERA between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A last year.

Carlos Collazo and Geoff Pontes of Baseball America talked about Stone’s remarkable ascension, and Pontes points to one surprising reason. We’ve heard a lot about Stone’s changeup (which Baseball Prospectus said might be the best changeup in the minors) and his fastball (which touched 99 this season), but Pontes points to the third pitch in his arsenal as a key to his future big-league success.


Quote:
Pontes: “He’s a really athletic right-hander and a guy who throughout the season saw his velocity tick up. He was more mid-90s, like 93 or 92 to 95 when I saw him back in May, by the time I was re-watching him later in the season in Tulsa he was sitting more 94, 95 to 96, 97 touching 99 miles per hour peak. He’s got an excellent changeup and throws a curveball and a slider, but what’s interesting is during his time in Tulsa he actually reworked his slider from a little bit more of a cutter shape to a sweeper.

Collazo: “Yeah, you mentioned previously to me that July 26 was a very key date for him. You talk about the changes to the breaking ball, obviously pitch usage and pitch development has improved at the pro level. What exactly did he change and how did that change his profile or maybe his overall upside moving forward?”

Pontes: “Yeah, I think, you know, when you look at cutters, it’s a little bit more similar to like a fastball movement, where there’s some some ride on it and then a little bit of cut, a little bit of glove-side movement.

What he did is he actually changed the tilt on the pitch by nearly two hours — he went from a 10:30, so closer to more of a fastball type of tilt, to an 8:30, which is a little bit more horizontal, which is why it was able to get that sweep.

The shape of the pitch went to nearly flat in terms of vertical and about 9 to 10 to 12 inches of sweep. So he really changed the way the pitch was thrown, the way the pitch moved, it was a completely different pitch from his previous slider.

And he did it on the fly and then had a lot of success with that pitch throughout the rest of the season. It was one of the best pitches he had and really, throughout the season, leading into August and September, he really tightened it up and it became a primary part of his mix.

He almost really scrapped the curveball and it went to more of a fastball/slider in right-on-right matchups and then throwing that changeup, which, really, he can throw right-on-right if he needs to, but it just brutalizes lefties off the plate.

So it’s a great three-pitch mix, and when he showed the ability to even make variations, make tweaks in-season, that’s the kind of thing that a starter or pitcher needs to be able to be successful in the majors.”

https://dodgersnation.com/dodgers-prospects-expert-breaks-down-gavin-stones-dominant-retooled-slider/2023/01/27/


Does that sweeper sound familiar? That's exactly what Heaney developed last year.

So, his arsenal includes: high 90s fastball, best changeup in the minors, and a very effective slider/sweeper?

The comment "and he did it on the fly" is what has me so excited about Stone. How reminiscent is he to Kershaw? Kershaw picked up the slider in one bullpen session and totally became a dominant pitcher. Stone's picked up 2 pitches since he got drafted and sounds like he's mastered both. This guy just has a Kershaw-like feel for pitching.

And this quote right here:

Quote:
He almost really scrapped the curveball and it went to more of a fastball/slider in right-on-right matchups and then throwing that changeup, which, really, he can throw right-on-right if he needs to, but it just brutalizes lefties off the plate.


Sounds like he really knows how to attack hitters. Kershaw has that. I don't know if Miller or May have that.

Yeah, I really can't see Stone failing at the major league level. His feel for pitching is elite.


3) The hype machine is starting to take off now:

Quote:
Blake Harris
@BlakeHHarris

14 strikeouts in 6.2 scoreless innings for Gavin Stone this spring

Dodgers probably want to get him a few more starts in OKC under his belt, but there’s a strong possibility he could be LA’s 3rd or 4th best starter in 2023




4) Dave Roberts confirmed that Gavin Stone will be on the mlb roster at some point this year:

Quote:
Dodgers Prospect Gavin Stone Expected To Make MLB Debut During 2023 Season

Following an impressive relief appearance, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts acknowledged Stone is likely to make his MLB debut during the 2023 season, via SportsNet LA:

“I think it’s a certainty we’re going to see him at some point this year.”


Yeah, I don't know which starter is on shaky ground right now. I'm guessing Syndergaard might lose his spot to Stone if he can't regain his velocity. Or, we might trade him at the deadline like the Angels did last year.

Or, do we use Stone in relief this year? That's a possibility too. That changeup is going to play really well in the bullpen. We could have our own Devin Williams in the bullpen.

Imagine a 1-2 of Phillips-Stone. Yeah, that definitely works too. That keeps his innings down. He threw 122 innings last year in the minors, so I'm thinking he'll have the same limits in the majors. If we start him out in AAA as a starter, he's probably going to accumulate around 30-40ip? (And we get 6.8 years of control on him).

That would leave around 80ip for the major league level, plus playoffs. So, probably a relief role is best for him this year as he builds up his arm. After all, he used to be a closer in college.


5) Well, this kind of answers my earlier question of which of the top 100 prospects will we be keeping? I think we're definitely keeping Vargas and Stone. I'm pretty sure Cartaya is also untouchable. Busch looks to be the odd man out.

Quote:
Dodgers' Top 100 Prospects:

Vargas
Stone

Cartaya

Miller
Pepiot
Pages
Busch
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:44 am    Post subject:

As much as I hate to say this, I really think Japan is winning this WBC. This iteration of Japan WBC is far superior to the champions of 2006 and 2009 versions that were losing games to Korea. The US, a team that could lose to Mexico, is not beating this Japanese juggernaut. This Japanese team IS the greatest WBC ever assembled. Their lineup and the way they are hitting reminds me of the 1993 Blue Jays that wasn't just supremely talented but their stars were aligned to where they were absolutely raking in the playoffs.

Korean pride alone against Japan almost always makes Korea-Japan very competitive but in this iteration and how they played other teams, Japan is just straight destroying everyone.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:21 am    Post subject:

I never before put this level of expectations on a rookie but I am putting almost
but not quite rookie Mike Piazza level of expectations (hitting wise) on Miguel Vargas. Kemp, Bellinger, Seager, Ethier - none of them had/have the complete hitting package like this kid. Do I really expect him to hit 0.318 with 35 HRs and 112 RBIs? Not the power figures....yet but the BA I can easily see being around that number
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 9:51 am    Post subject:

1995Lakers wrote:
I never before put this level of expectations on a rookie but I am putting almost
but not quite rookie Mike Piazza level of expectations (hitting wise) on Miguel Vargas. Kemp, Bellinger, Seager, Ethier - none of them had/have the complete hitting package like this kid. Do I really expect him to hit 0.318 with 35 HRs and 112 RBIs? Not the power figures....yet but the BA I can easily see being around that number


If Vargas can actually put up those numbers, and if Muncy is back like I think he is, then our offense this year might be able to match our offense from last year:

Quote:
2022.................................. vs. ............2023:

(2022) Mookie Betts (RF) ...... = ............ (2023) Mookie Betts (RF)

(2022) Freddie Freeman (1B)..= ............ (2023) Freddie Freeman (1B)

(2022) Will Smith (C) ........... = ........... (2023) Will Smith (C)

(2022) Justin Turner (DH) ..... = ........... (2023) JD Martinez (DH)

(2022) Gavin Lux (2B) .......... = ........... (2023) Miguel Vargas (2B)

(2022) Trea Turner (SS) ........ = ............ (2023) Max Muncy (3B)

(2022) Gallo/Thompson (LF) . = ............ (2023) Peralta/Taylor (LF)

(2022) Bellinger (CF) ........... = ..............(2023) Thompson/Outman/Heyward (CF)

(2022) Muncy (3B) .............. > ..............(2023) Miguel Rojas (SS)


And defensively, we might even be better because of Rojas:


Quote:
2022.................................. vs. ............2023:

(2022) Mookie Betts (RF) ...... = ............ (2023) Mookie Betts (RF)

(2022) Freddie Freeman (1B)..= ............ (2023) Freddie Freeman (1B)

(2022) Will Smith (C) ........... = ........... (2023) Will Smith (C)

(2022) Muncy (3B) .............. = ..............(2023) Max Muncy (3B)

(2022) Gavin Lux (2B) .......... > ........... (2023) Miguel Vargas (2B)

(2022) Gallo/Thompson (LF) . > ............ (2023) Peralta/Taylor (LF)

(2022) Bellinger (CF) ........... > ..............(2023) Thompson/Outman/Heyward (CF)


(2022) Trea Turner (SS) .... < ............ (2023) Miguel Rojas (SS)
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 10:10 am    Post subject:

1995Lakers wrote:
As much as I hate to say this, I really think Japan is winning this WBC. This iteration of Japan WBC is far superior to the champions of 2006 and 2009 versions that were losing games to Korea. The US, a team that could lose to Mexico, is not beating this Japanese juggernaut. This Japanese team IS the greatest WBC ever assembled. Their lineup and the way they are hitting reminds me of the 1993 Blue Jays that wasn't just supremely talented but their stars were aligned to where they were absolutely raking in the playoffs.

Korean pride alone against Japan almost always makes Korea-Japan very competitive but in this iteration and how they played other teams, Japan is just straight destroying everyone.


One thing to keep in mind, baseball is not a sport that's meant to be played in a single elimination tournament style.

Tennis works
The NFL works
The NCAA mens basketball tournament kinda works but we see upsets every year


However, it doesn't work for baseball. Baseball is a numbers game. It's meant to be played over large sample sizes (like 162 games).

Once you start shrinking the sample size, you start to get weird results (7 game series vs. 5 game series vs. 3 game series vs single elimination style).

Think of Eddie Rosario going crazy against us.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:47 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
1995Lakers wrote:
As much as I hate to say this, I really think Japan is winning this WBC. This iteration of Japan WBC is far superior to the champions of 2006 and 2009 versions that were losing games to Korea. The US, a team that could lose to Mexico, is not beating this Japanese juggernaut. This Japanese team IS the greatest WBC ever assembled. Their lineup and the way they are hitting reminds me of the 1993 Blue Jays that wasn't just supremely talented but their stars were aligned to where they were absolutely raking in the playoffs.

Korean pride alone against Japan almost always makes Korea-Japan very competitive but in this iteration and how they played other teams, Japan is just straight destroying everyone.


One thing to keep in mind, baseball is not a sport that's meant to be played in a single elimination tournament style.

Tennis works
The NFL works
The NCAA mens basketball tournament kinda works but we see upsets every year


However, it doesn't work for baseball. Baseball is a numbers game. It's meant to be played over large sample sizes (like 162 games).

Once you start shrinking the sample size, you start to get weird results (7 game series vs. 5 game series vs. 3 game series vs single elimination style).

Think of Eddie Rosario going crazy against us.


0-0 top of the 4th

You never know
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:02 pm    Post subject:

Both Sandoval and Sasaki throwing a gem today.

Both pitchers USA wouldn't see tomorrow. LOL
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:03 pm    Post subject:

wow, Sasaki has thrown 21 fastballs in the game so far.

20 of them over 100mph
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:05 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
wow, Sasaki has thrown 21 fastballs in the game so far.

20 of them over 100mph


Damn. The kid is insane. I don't know if it's the camera angle but it looks like his fastballs have a lot of movement. LOL
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:09 pm    Post subject:

Mexico up 3-0 with a 3 run shot.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:10 pm    Post subject:

aprevo15 wrote:
Mexico up 3-0 with a 3 run shot.


Yup, like I was saying above. Baseball wasn't meant to be played in a single elimination style tournament.

The more talented team doesn't always win every game.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:15 pm    Post subject:

Quote:
Cuban catcher Ivan Prieto reportedly did not join the rest of the team on the flight back to the island, apparently becoming the first Cuban player ever to defect during the World Baseball Classic
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:16 pm    Post subject:

Come on Ohtani.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:33 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
aprevo15 wrote:
Mexico up 3-0 with a 3 run shot.


Yup, like I was saying above. Baseball wasn't meant to be played in a single elimination style tournament.

The more talented team doesn't always win every game.



Baseball has a lot of randomness & luck with some skill mixed in.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:39 pm    Post subject:

cold blooded catch by Arozarena
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:09 pm    Post subject:

JerryWest_44 wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
aprevo15 wrote:
Mexico up 3-0 with a 3 run shot.


Yup, like I was saying above. Baseball wasn't meant to be played in a single elimination style tournament.

The more talented team doesn't always win every game.



Baseball has a lot of randomness & luck with some skill mixed in.


Yup, it's in the rules too.

For instance, a pitcher who gives up 2 singles and a HR. It's just a matter of what order he gives them up in determines if he had a great outing, good outing, or bad outing:

Quote:
single
single
HR

or

HR
single
single

or

single
HR
single
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:47 pm    Post subject:

Wow Japan ties it with a 3 run shot of their own. For couple of innings they left runners on base and finally they broke through and got a hold of one.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:48 pm    Post subject:

wowow, fly ball 3 run HR. That did not look like a HR at all

Taking out Urquidy hurt Mexico

Saving relievers to bring them in cold in high leverage situations...

The analytics say it should work, but we see enough times that it doesn't work.

Gotta let relievers warm up too.


Last edited by LongBeachPoly on Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:52 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:50 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
wowow, fly ball 3 run HR. That did not look like a HR at all

Taking out Urquidy hurt Mexico


Dave Roberts? LOL
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:53 pm    Post subject:

aprevo15 wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
wowow, fly ball 3 run HR. That did not look like a HR at all

Taking out Urquidy hurt Mexico


Dave Roberts? LOL


Not as bad, but when he took him out, that's what I was thinking. JC Romero came in nibbling vs. Ohtani. He was scared to challenge Ohtani.

At least Urquidy was warmed up and would have had a better chance vs. Ohtani.

Somehow, analytics doesn't take into account that the dude on the mound is already warmed up vs. the dude coming in is cold as hell.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:54 pm    Post subject:

Arozarena doing it all today.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:55 pm    Post subject:

Mexico 4 Japan 3 with back to back doubles
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