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Dr. Laker
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 Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 1:27 am Post subject: Analyzing the AD deal 4 years later |
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FROM BASKETBALL-REFERENCE:
July 6, 2019: As part of a 3-team trade, traded by the New Orleans Pelicans to the Los Angeles Lakers; the Los Angeles Lakers traded Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, De'Andre Hunter, Brandon Ingram, cash, a 2022 1st round draft pick (Dyson Daniels was later selected), a 2023 1st round draft pick and a 2024 1st round draft pick to the New Orleans Pelicans; the Los Angeles Lakers traded Isaac Bonga, Jemerrio Jones, Moritz Wagner and a 2022 2nd round draft pick (Kennedy Chandler was later selected) to the Washington Wizards; and the Washington Wizards traded cash to the New Orleans Pelicans. (9-30 protected, unprotected in 2022) (2023 first-round pick is right to swap with LAL) (NOP have the option to defer 2024 first-round pick to 2025.) $1MM $1.1MM 2022 2nd-rd pick is LAL own
Lakers gave up:
Brandon Ingram - NBA All Star, injury plagued
Lonzo Ball - injuries made him a bust
Josh Hart - solid NBA reserve
De'Andre Hunter (draft rights) - injury plagued, nondescript NBA starter, traded to ATL for a sack of beans
Isaac Bonga - LG legend but couldn't stay in the NBA
Mo Wagner - 8th man on a lottery team
Jemerrio Jones - NBA career lasted 8 games
2022 #1 Dyson Daniels - young, rookie season was unimpressive
2022 #2 Kennedy Chandler - waived on April 8
2024 #1 - TBD, may defer to 2025
1 playoff trip
1 play in pending
Lakers received:
Anthony Davis - All-NBA/All-D, injury plagued
2 playoff trips
1 play in pending
NBA championship
Looking at it piece by piece, unless the 24/25 pick turns into a gem, the deal boils down to:
Brandon Ingram for Anthony Davis.
The other players we gave up are not impact NBA players and were easily replaced. None of them are still with NOLA. Even counting Hunter - he's already 25 and has less Win Shares than draftmate Rui Hachimura, who we picked up for a song.
By the numbers, the deal was solid for the Lakers and - if AD gets another ring here - it's a big win for us.
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twisted
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Joined: 09 Jun 2012
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 2:10 am Post subject: |
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Thanks for this. I've always wondered how we would look if we didnt do the trade. Couple of things that I have a different perspective on though:
1. I was under the impression that we would have picked Garland, had we not traded the pick. So our opportunity cost would have been Ingram and Garland at the very least.
2. Josh Hart was a key piece in the CJ McCollum trade (basically him + 1st round pick) so he's no chump change.
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gng930
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Joined: 13 Apr 2001
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 7:40 am Post subject: |
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NB4 a certain someone sucks the oxygen out of the thread.
It's always tricky trying to do these type of analyses when it comes to picks used. Do you consider players that could have been drafted instead? Darius Garland is obviously the one that stands out. Jalen Williams was a top 2 rookie. And it's simply too soon to make a call on Dyson Daniels.
The one thing you can't dispute is that we don't win the championship without AD in 2020.
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SGSD32
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 7:43 am Post subject: |
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| gng930 wrote: | NB4 a certain someone sucks the oxygen out of the thread.
It's always tricky trying to do these type of analyses when it comes to picks used. Do you consider players that could have been drafted instead? Darius Garland is obviously the one that stands out. Jalen Williams was a top 2 rookie. And it's simply too soon to make a call on Dyson Daniels.
The one thing you can't dispute is that we don't win the championship without AD in 2020. |
The biggest thing, imo.. is that the Lakers have been able to add younger talent without that draft capital. |
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governator
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 7:43 am Post subject: |
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| The only fact is #17… discussion are fine but let’s not start with diminishing the championship |
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Halflife
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vasashi17+
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 7:56 am Post subject: |
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Trading/dumping nearly all our young assets (every kid except Kuz) and nearly all our draft capital (3 out of 4 possible FRPs that are allowed to be traded during a 7yr window and 1 out of 3 possible 1st round swaps). You primarily trade one or the other in the AD trade. We did both…and all in the name of capspace, that mostly went unrealized.
If you had to do both and you wanted to occupy a 3rd max player with that space, our title win-dow wound have been so much truer with Jrue coming along with AD.
Again, big picture planning should be to not only attain the target, but fully exploit it once you come good on it.
We gave up most of our trade assets in the AD trade to tinker the roster around him and Bron with in sustaining title runS.
Multiple big men later, we still haven’t given dude a fulltime center to run with and we have 1 bubble ring as our only deep playoff run and 2 play-in appearances to applaud over with Bron/AD here for a 5yr #win-dow.
Imho, it’s been a fail!
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Last edited by vasashi17+ on Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:03 am; edited 1 time in total |
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CamReddish
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:02 am Post subject: |
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I think we would have drafted Garland though
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defense
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:02 am Post subject: |
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| We already won. Now we are looking for the icing on the cake! |
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LakerFan1987
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Joined: 30 Oct 2022
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:04 am Post subject: |
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| vasashi17+ wrote: | Trading/dumping nearly all our young assets (every kid except Kuz) and nearly all our draft capital (3 out of 4 possible FRPs that are allowed to be traded during a 7yr window and 1 out of 3 possible 1st round swaps). You primarily trade one or the other in the AD trade. We did both…and all in the name of capspace, that mostly went unrealized.
If you had to do both and you wanted to occupy a 3rd max player with that space, our title win-dow wound have been so much truer with Jrue coming along with AD.
Again, big picture planning should be to not only attain the target, but fully exploit it once you come good on it.
We gave up most of our trade assets in the AD trade to tinker the roster around him and Bron with in sustaining title runS.
Multiple big men later, we still haven’t given dude a fulltime center to run with and we have 1 bubble ring as our only deep playoff run and 2 play-in appearances to applaud over with Bron/AD here for a 5yr #win-dow.
Imho, it’s been a fail! |
If the Lakers failed, what does that make the Pelicans? 
Perspective man |
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tox
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Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17880
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:05 am Post subject: |
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| LakerFan1987 wrote: | | vasashi17+ wrote: | Trading/dumping nearly all our young assets (every kid except Kuz) and nearly all our draft capital (3 out of 4 possible FRPs that are allowed to be traded during a 7yr window and 1 out of 3 possible 1st round swaps). You primarily trade one or the other in the AD trade. We did both…and all in the name of capspace, that mostly went unrealized.
If you had to do both and you wanted to occupy a 3rd max player with that space, our title win-dow wound have been so much truer with Jrue coming along with AD.
Again, big picture planning should be to not only attain the target, but fully exploit it once you come good on it.
We gave up most of our trade assets in the AD trade to tinker the roster around him and Bron with in sustaining title runS.
Multiple big men later, we still haven’t given dude a fulltime center to run with and we have 1 bubble ring as our only deep playoff run and 2 play-in appearances to applaud over with Bron/AD here for a 5yr #win-dow.
Imho, it’s been a fail! |
If the Lakers failed, what does that make the Pelicans?
Perspective man |
I don't agree with his take, but you could see it as a lose/lose |
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KindCrippler2000
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Joined: 02 May 2003
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:06 am Post subject: |
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A ring is a ring, but if Rob hadn't acquired Rui, DLo, Beasley, Bamba, Vanderbilt, Lakers would be looking at a nuclear winter in terms of young talent. Austin Reeves is great but he would have been the only young piece.
TL;DR - Rob pulled a grand heist and vindicated himself after giving up too many assets and FRPs. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:10 am Post subject: |
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Doesn't seem fair to analyze the trade this way.
| Quote: | 1) Lakers were always going to have more success than NO (in the next 4 years). NO was in a total rebuild, Lakers had LeBron.
2) What NO does with the assets they acquired doesn't mean that's what the Lakers would have done.
3) AD demanded a trade to the Lakers. Pretty much, nothing they can do but trade him to the Lakers. They had no other options. |
Basically, all this shows is that NO really mismanaged their assets. But, make no mistake, they acquired a ton of assets from the Lakers. |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:14 am Post subject: |
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It comes down to would you rather have the young/players or cap space? Having cap space has been mediocre, there was one title when AD and Lebron were healthy. But little depth when they weren’t that ended up with 2 play ins and a trip to the lottery with no pick. Considering the experience of the FO, they probably made the right choice. I’ve seen enough of trading guys like Zubac for nothing, letting Lopez walk and trading first round picks wastefully to have much faith in the FO making moves.
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vasashi17+
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:17 am Post subject: |
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LakerFan1987: I only care about what my team does.
And my definition of success isn’t a won&done aka 1 stop shop & then pop.
We’ve been window shopping since…instead of consistently entering the premises and being a legitimate threat popping bottleS aka #win-dow
That bubble run looks more fluky than legitimate right now…and that’s a FO/roster management problem aka a Pelinka pRoblem. So while I care more for ours, y’all can go ahead and care about the Pels problems.
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petergr
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Posts: 1525
Location: kiki
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:22 am Post subject: |
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| Pelinka salvaged the 2023, potentially 2024/25 picks with the DLO+Vando+Beasely for 2027 pick trade. Otherwise Pelicans were going to get a great pick this year and next year as well. Before the trade Lakers were 13th in the west. Now the 2023 pick swap is effectively canceled |
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Dr. Laker
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Joined: 12 Apr 2002
Posts: 17108
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:55 am Post subject: |
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| vasashi17+ wrote: | LakerFan1987: I only care about what my team does.
And my definition of success isn’t a won&done aka 1 stop shop & then pop.
We’ve been window shopping since…instead of consistently entering the premises and being a legitimate threat popping bottleS aka #win-dow
That bubble run looks more fluky than legitimate right now…and that’s a FO/roster management problem aka a Pelinka pRoblem. So while I care more for ours, y’all can go ahead and care about the Pels problems. |
Pure sophistry.
Since Pelinka became GM:
Lakers
Warriors
Raptors
Bucks
That's the list of NBA Champs. The Bucks have had a sustained run . . . with a homegrown MVP . . . but failed to repeat.
The Dubs (whose FO LG worships) went to the lottery twice.
The Raps (whose FO LG worships) went to the lottery two years after winning it all.
The Lakers went to the lottery two years after winning it all.
Looking at all the teams - who are the great amassers of assets?
Utah (lottery)?
Houston (lottery)?
OKC (3 years of fire sales)?
WINNING A CHIP IS NOT THAT EASY!
LGers love to post about how great Miami's brain trust is with Riles and Spoelstra . . . last I looked, they're a 7th seed (like the Lakers) and haven't won a chip IN TEN YEARS.
Ainge - a legendary asset gangsta on LG - stockpiled assets but only won a ring because of a buddy deal with McHale 15 years ago.
Ujiri - the LG paradigm of a modern professional GM - won a chip when he was gifted KL - and hasn't done diddly since.
If your idea of success doesn't prioritize championships, well, we won't ever agree.
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activeverb
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:58 am Post subject: |
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| gng930 wrote: | NB4 a certain someone sucks the oxygen out of the thread.
It's always tricky trying to do these type of analyses when it comes to picks used. Do you consider players that could have been drafted instead? Darius Garland is obviously the one that stands out. Jalen Williams was a top 2 rookie. And it's simply too soon to make a call on Dyson Daniels.
The one thing you can't dispute is that we don't win the championship without AD in 2020. |
True. It's pretty easy to woulda-coulda-shoulda any scenario if you try hard enough. Ultimately, these exercises are just for fun (including the fun some people get from becoming irritated over the idea that another choice would have been better).
It's all a big unknown. A lot of these scenarios are based on the assumption that if we hadn't made the AD trade, we would have stood pat with the players we had five years ago, or guesses that we would have drafted Player X or Player Y.
Personally, I can imagine countless alternative realities, some of which would have been better, some worse.
Last edited by activeverb on Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:59 am; edited 1 time in total |
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anth2000
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:59 am Post subject: |
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Would do the deal 10 out of 10 times.
No brainer, not really up for debate.
Lakers got a championship.
Other than Ingram, none of the other players have been all-star level so it's all good. |
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Dr. Laker
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:12 am Post subject: |
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| venturalakersfan wrote: | | It comes down to would you rather have the young/players or cap space? Having cap space has been mediocre, there was one title when AD and Lebron were healthy. But little depth when they weren’t that ended up with 2 play ins and a trip to the lottery with no pick. Considering the experience of the FO, they probably made the right choice. I’ve seen enough of trading guys like Zubac for nothing, letting Lopez walk and trading first round picks wastefully to have much faith in the FO making moves. |
I'd rather have a championship ring.
I have some acquaintances who are absolutely giddy that the Clippers have won 11 straight over the Lakers. My response is always "how many championships have the Clippers won in the last 50 years?" That ALWAYS shuts them up.
I get that some people want the thrill of seeing a homegrown team of youngsters gel and develop into a powerhouse . . . but that is extremely rare in the modern NBA. The Dubs caught lightning in a bottle, grabbing Steph, Klay & Dray in a three year span . . . but that was in the middle of of a 5 year lottery run and all of those guys fell to the Warriors, so luck played a huge part in that equation.
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mad55557777
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Joined: 29 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:12 am Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | | LakerFan1987 wrote: | | vasashi17+ wrote: | Trading/dumping nearly all our young assets (every kid except Kuz) and nearly all our draft capital (3 out of 4 possible FRPs that are allowed to be traded during a 7yr window and 1 out of 3 possible 1st round swaps). You primarily trade one or the other in the AD trade. We did both…and all in the name of capspace, that mostly went unrealized.
If you had to do both and you wanted to occupy a 3rd max player with that space, our title win-dow wound have been so much truer with Jrue coming along with AD.
Again, big picture planning should be to not only attain the target, but fully exploit it once you come good on it.
We gave up most of our trade assets in the AD trade to tinker the roster around him and Bron with in sustaining title runS.
Multiple big men later, we still haven’t given dude a fulltime center to run with and we have 1 bubble ring as our only deep playoff run and 2 play-in appearances to applaud over with Bron/AD here for a 5yr #win-dow.
Imho, it’s been a fail! |
If the Lakers failed, what does that make the Pelicans?
Perspective man |
I don't agree with his take, but you could see it as a lose/lose |
if a lose/lose trade involves us getting a championship, when can we do a losing trade again? |
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eddiejonze
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:20 am Post subject: |
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Both can be true, both opinions of it being a success Vs. a failure, can be true.
We won the title, and in this sport history judges titles mostly...Lakers win titles.
But could it have been more successful? yes.
Is AD injury prone? Yes.
Are we possibly too beholden to Bron (westbrick deal)? Yes.
Are some of the other guys (BI) balling? Yes.
Just like you can't judge a team until the whole 82 game season is over to truly analyze, trades can only be analyzed over the traded players WHOLE career with their new teams...
This truly can't be analyzed until AD is done here.
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ocho
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:25 am Post subject: |
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| anth2000 wrote: | Would do the deal 10 out of 10 times.
No brainer, not really up for debate.
Lakers got a championship.
Other than Ingram, none of the other players have been all-star level so it's all good. |
You’ve really got to be a 99th percentile miserable fan to still be complaining about a deal that got us by far the best player and a championship.
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Megaton
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defense
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| Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:28 am Post subject: |
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| mad55557777 wrote: | | tox wrote: | | LakerFan1987 wrote: | | vasashi17+ wrote: | Trading/dumping nearly all our young assets (every kid except Kuz) and nearly all our draft capital (3 out of 4 possible FRPs that are allowed to be traded during a 7yr window and 1 out of 3 possible 1st round swaps). You primarily trade one or the other in the AD trade. We did both…and all in the name of capspace, that mostly went unrealized.
If you had to do both and you wanted to occupy a 3rd max player with that space, our title win-dow wound have been so much truer with Jrue coming along with AD.
Again, big picture planning should be to not only attain the target, but fully exploit it once you come good on it.
We gave up most of our trade assets in the AD trade to tinker the roster around him and Bron with in sustaining title runS.
Multiple big men later, we still haven’t given dude a fulltime center to run with and we have 1 bubble ring as our only deep playoff run and 2 play-in appearances to applaud over with Bron/AD here for a 5yr #win-dow.
Imho, it’s been a fail! |
If the Lakers failed, what does that make the Pelicans?
Perspective man |
I don't agree with his take, but you could see it as a lose/lose |
if a lose/lose trade involves us getting a championship, when can we do a losing trade again? |
One lose lose for next season please |
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