Jaxson's market around the league isn't going to be close to $10m. Other teams know it's the Luka effect.
Nobody is going to sign him expecting 15-18 points a night. Luka isn’t helping him out on the defensive end, that’s where he’s making his money. 25 yo athletic rim protectors don’t grow on trees, plus he’s still has potential to get better because of his age/body/athleticism. Like I said, Hartenstein got 30 million a year and he wasn’t giving the Knicks much more than what Jaxson is giving us right now.
Hayes numbers this season:
Pre All Star - 31 games, 17.6mpg, 5.8pt, 4.2r, 1.0b
Post All Star - 10 games, 25mpg, 9.6pt,5.9r,1.2b
Neither of these statistical profiles is getting a NTMLE offer. He opted into a minimum contract this past summer, and before Luka wasn't thought to be in the team's plans. He has made some money for sure. But the idea that someone out there is going to compete for Hayes at $10m+ ignores too much of the context.
Funny how you completely ignored my Hartenstein example. I’m basing my opinion on the most recent market for this type of player. You seem to be basing your opinion on just wishful thinking.
Hartenstein last season:
25 mpg, 8 ppg, 8 rbg, 1 blk
This got him 30 million a year for three years, and you think that if Hayes keeps this up he’s not even gonna get 10? How Sway? Make it make sense.
You have to consider the landscape. Only two teams are projected to have cap space - Brooklyn and Detroit. Both are already set with their starting center, Claxton and Duren. Detroit has also invested in Stewart. Brooklyn will probably be using their space to acquire assets attached to unwanted contracts. I doubt either are dropping anything close to $30 million for a backup center.
That said, I wouldn't be shocked if Hayes got NTMLE money, especially if Luka and co. continue to make him look on the national stage during the playoffs. Even with Lebron taking a substantial paycut, it might not be easy keeping Hayes AND using our own NTMLE. You pay Hayes that much then you're making him your starting center. If so, they may instead sign a backup (Sims?) using the BAE or TPMLE depending on how badly they want to stay under the first apron. _________________ Luxury Tax/FA Spreadsheet (Save to your Google Drive to edit)
Hayes by a mile, dudes eye level with the rim on some of these lobs. Pre-injury Bynum was a really good athlete, but was never anywhere close to the leaper that hayes is
Last edited by AY2043 on Mon Mar 17, 2025 10:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
The thing with hayes is that he’s actually a really good decision maker with the ball in addition to being an elite lob threat. He can catch it in the short roll and make the right decision pretty consistently. He’s playing legitimately really really good basketball right now
Last edited by AY2043 on Mon Mar 17, 2025 10:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
ntMLE feels like an overpay for Hayes
But I wonder if Hayes is working his way into that awkward "not a championship caliber starter but better than a back up" role which is how a lot of guys end up getting paid on mediocre-to-bad teams
ntMLE feels like an overpay for Hayes
But I wonder if Hayes is working his way into that awkward "not a championship caliber starter but better than a back up" role which is how a lot of guys end up getting paid on mediocre-to-bad teams
A championship caliber starting center is such a wide spectrum these days. Some may start most of the regular season for their team but might be played off the floor in certain series. Regardless, I think Hayes can contribute 20ish minutes a night for a championship squad. Probably not quite worth the ntMLE as you put it. But as you seem to imply, it's not an unrealistic offer from at least one team. We'd be hard pressed either way. _________________ Luxury Tax/FA Spreadsheet (Save to your Google Drive to edit)
Joined: 13 Sep 2008 Posts: 6218 Location: Ljubljana, Slovenia
Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2025 12:25 am Post subject:
Man the fake-the-pass-rim-run-dunk was something else. I didn't know he had that in him. He's really playing well, I never imagined he was capable of being this good. Keep it up, Jaxson!
Jaxson's market around the league isn't going to be close to $10m. Other teams know it's the Luka effect.
Nobody is going to sign him expecting 15-18 points a night. Luka isn’t helping him out on the defensive end, that’s where he’s making his money. 25 yo athletic rim protectors don’t grow on trees, plus he’s still has potential to get better because of his age/body/athleticism. Like I said, Hartenstein got 30 million a year and he wasn’t giving the Knicks much more than what Jaxson is giving us right now.
Hayes numbers this season:
Pre All Star - 31 games, 17.6mpg, 5.8pt, 4.2r, 1.0b
Post All Star - 10 games, 25mpg, 9.6pt,5.9r,1.2b
Neither of these statistical profiles is getting a NTMLE offer. He opted into a minimum contract this past summer, and before Luka wasn't thought to be in the team's plans. He has made some money for sure. But the idea that someone out there is going to compete for Hayes at $10m+ ignores too much of the context.
Funny how you completely ignored my Hartenstein example. I’m basing my opinion on the most recent market for this type of player. You seem to be basing your opinion on just wishful thinking.
Hartenstein last season:
25 mpg, 8 ppg, 8 rbg, 1 blk
This got him 30 million a year for three years, and you think that if Hayes keeps this up he’s not even gonna get 10? How Sway? Make it make sense.
very simple. Hartenstein was an extreme overpay.
1. Overpays happen in every offseason of every sport, you have to account for them.
2. A team doesn’t need to overpay in order to make it really difficult for the Lakers to bring him back, which is my whole point.
FYI - Hayes had been playing well before Luka trade.
The games when he started right before Luka's debut: He had been giving the team 25-27 mpg as a starter and being able to help the Lakers put forth a 4 game winning streak. It began in that Washington road game, something clicked for Hayes as starter.
Of course playing with Luka puts him at a bigger advantage, but DeAndre Jordan was also heavily reliant on CP3 type of guys to create for him. Teams won't be expecting young Dwight Howard, but a young athletic 2-way starting caliber legit 5 is easily a MLE guy in the league.
Take into account what our defense (even with Luka) has looked like without Hayes.
If guys like Vanderbilt have gotten MLE level money over 4 years by RP, hard for me to see Hayes stick around without a significant offer. Who is agent btw? Do people really think he'll re-sign to for 2 years TPMLE (something like 15/2?) A starter on a contender does not get that kind of low ball offer. If he does, likely he walks.
The real concern should be some team overpaying him and we having to consider letting him go like we saw with OKC and IH via Knicks. Without a quality big, we're in no position to let him walk. The Williams trade would have put us in a much better negotiating position. If the price tag is MLE, I do it easily. I worry about some crazy team offering him even more than that and us having to let him go.
Hayes' agent is Bill Duffy. Same agent as Luka Doncic
Oh (bleep), now I know why Vasashi was making such a big deal in the other thread about Hayes FA. Got it. Anyway in this case then I think it will be quite easy. Duffy is likely the new Klutch/Rich Paul.
As Klutch got KCP and other non-star players deals, I think we see that with Hayes. If anything, I'm less concerned now about him leaving as a FA.
If there's one area Rob excels at is stuff like this. I would trust him to establish a great working relationship with Duffy. My guess on Hayes next deal? Look at Vando's. Something like that. If I know my cap right, we have his early bird rights and can offer him 4 years at the MLE range.
So, I expect this will be a controversial comment, but from a certain perspective and definitely for certain teams, missing Hayes might be more to the detriment of the team, than missing any other player, aka MVP. _________________ Hey Doge, ever hear of “measure twice, cut once?” It is not cut first and measure later.
I have had him penciled in for around 6Mill in my projections for next year.
Right now he’s on a high so that seems too low. But let’s see how he finishes the season/playoffs out as that will decide it. _________________ "He's a Zen master, so he can speak to you, and he doesn't need a microphone; you can hear him in your head, 'Ron, don't shoot, don't shoot.' Whatever, pow, three. I love the Zen, though."
Hayes' agent is Bill Duffy. Same agent as Luka Doncic
Oh (bleep), now I know why Vasashi was making such a big deal in the other thread about Hayes FA. Got it. Anyway in this case then I think it will be quite easy. Duffy is likely the new Klutch/Rich Paul.
As Klutch got KCP and other non-star players deals, I think we see that with Hayes. If anything, I'm less concerned now about him leaving as a FA.
If there's one area Rob excels at is stuff like this. I would trust him to establish a great working relationship with Duffy. My guess on Hayes next deal? Look at Vando's. Something like that. If I know my cap right, we have his early bird rights and can offer him 4 years at the MLE range.
I truly believe Duffy and the Lakers will have a great working relationship. Duffy also has many contacts in Europe.
Many years ago, my cousin was stationed at Norton AFB in San Bernardino. He stated he use to play pickup basketball games on base with Bill Duffy and Ronnie Lott. He claims Duff was a Laker fan.
The thing with hayes is that he’s actually a really good decision maker with the ball in addition to being an elite lob threat. He can catch it in the short roll and make the right decision pretty consistently. He’s playing legitimately really really good basketball right now
Yes, few are seeing this, I'm glad you are, huge growth in his game here.
Joined: 24 Dec 2007 Posts: 37592 Location: Santa Clarita, CA (Hell) ->>>>>Ithaca, NY -≥≥≥≥≥Berkeley, CA
Posted: Tue Mar 18, 2025 12:00 pm Post subject:
ThePageDude wrote:
AY2043 wrote:
The thing with hayes is that he’s actually a really good decision maker with the ball in addition to being an elite lob threat. He can catch it in the short roll and make the right decision pretty consistently. He’s playing legitimately really really good basketball right now
Yes, few are seeing this, I'm glad you are, huge growth in his game here.
Yeah he seems to have had a reputation as an athletic but low basketball IQ guy like McGee, but actually it’s not the case. I was impressed with his fake handoff and then dunk yesterday. _________________ Damian Lillard shatters Dwight Coward's championship dreams:
The thing with hayes is that he’s actually a really good decision maker with the ball in addition to being an elite lob threat. He can catch it in the short roll and make the right decision pretty consistently. He’s playing legitimately really really good basketball right now
Yes, few are seeing this, I'm glad you are, huge growth in his game here.
Yeah he seems to have had a reputation as an athletic but low basketball IQ guy like McGee, but actually it’s not the case. I was impressed with his fake handoff and then dunk yesterday.
Most of the time what those players are missing is guidance, development and experience. Put them in a position where they are worked with and developed and those kind of plays usually happen less frequently.
Whereas on a team not actually invested in developing or winning for that matter, they appear often.
Hayes in 2 years with the Lakers has made more progress as a player than any time he spent on the Pelicans.
And he is younger than Luka, so he's technically not even in his prime yet. _________________ How NBA 2K18 failed the All-Time Lakers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxMBYm3wwxk
The thing with hayes is that he’s actually a really good decision maker with the ball in addition to being an elite lob threat. He can catch it in the short roll and make the right decision pretty consistently. He’s playing legitimately really really good basketball right now
Yes, few are seeing this, I'm glad you are, huge growth in his game here.
If you listened to the LFR podcast during the preseason of last year, they were already noting that in his game then. Not sure what led him to regress. As great as AD was for us, he definitely contributed to a less dynamic offense. Ham also wasn't as creative as JJ on the offensive end. But it's comforting to know that it isn't a flash in the pan. _________________ Luxury Tax/FA Spreadsheet (Save to your Google Drive to edit)
<snip>
If you listened to the LFR podcast during the preseason of last year, they were already noting that in his game then. Not sure what led him to regress. As great as AD was for us, he definitely contributed to a less dynamic offense. Ham also wasn't as creative as JJ on the offensive end. But it's comforting to know that it isn't a flash in the pan.
Cool! Those guys have keen basketball eyes.
Credit to a poster here who was predicting Hayes' potential, he has been proven right.
<snip>
If you listened to the LFR podcast during the preseason of last year, they were already noting that in his game then. Not sure what led him to regress. As great as AD was for us, he definitely contributed to a less dynamic offense. Ham also wasn't as creative as JJ on the offensive end. But it's comforting to know that it isn't a flash in the pan.
Cool! Those guys have keen basketball eyes.
Credit to a poster here who was predicting Hayes' potential, he has been proven right.
That was ME.....I called Hayes potential ALL THE WAY and predicted the moment he would turn out to be a smarter McGee!!!!! J/K.....I believe that was MJST
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