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ArminNBA
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 Posted: Fri Sep 29, 2023 12:20 pm Post subject: |
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| gng930 wrote: | | @Armin - that's as solid of a breakdown as I've seen |
Thank you 🙌
| gng930 wrote: | | Just nitpicking (not that I could do any better) but I agree we should always have one of Bron/Reaves/DLO on the floor and even at least two of them most of the time. So I don't like going 9 straight minutes between the end of the first and beginning of the second with DLO and Reaves off the floor. |
To be honest, I think having 2 of the 3 on the floor at all times is the perfect recipe for the playoffs, but I genuinely think it's unnecessary for the regular season given the Lakers' strength of depth. I also sincerely want to avoid overtaxing the core.
To have 2 of 3 on the court at all times, all three would need to play 30+ minutes and someone would need to hit 35+ minutes, and I'd rather save their energy for the playoffs.
Also, would love for Gabe and Christie to get plenty of reps during the regular season because you never know if they'll need to be called upon to play a big role in a playoff game due to injury, foul trouble, or suspension. As Pelinka said, "everyone is going to have a chance to eat."
| gng930 wrote: | | And like you, I especially don't like that lineup at the end of the first. You generally want to avoid any runs from the other team at the end of quarters and I don't think a Gabe/Wood combo with some 3-and-Ders will generate a lot of offense. Wood has also not done well historically as the sole rim protector. Rui is a solid post defender and has tried to study AD but I'm not sure enough of AD has rubbed off on him that we can depend on him as an additional rim protector. So it's a bad recipe potentially on both sides. |
Yeah, I really didn't like that one, and it's frankly the only lineup/3-minute stretch I don't like. My decision came down to either playing AD 36 minutes to avoid the Wood problem, playing Austin 36 minutes to avoid the lack-of-a-playmaker problem, or conceding the 3 minutes to keep everyone under 33 minutes (one of my personal goals going into the exercise). All that being said, I do not mind at all Austin being in the final 3-minute stretch lineup and playing the entire 1st quarter (and thus, ultimately, playing 36 minutes). He's young and fresh enough to handle the minutes load. |
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tox
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| Posted: Fri Sep 29, 2023 1:16 pm Post subject: |
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I like your breakdown but the two big lineups (AD/Wood in particular) might be getting more run due to AD's preference to not play as much center, at least in the regular season. This might open up more minutes for Wood than just the backup 5, or maybe Wood/AD play together and Hayes gets some run as AD's real backup.
That would have the effect of leaving fewer minutes elsewhere in your rotation -- my guess might be Max's minutes get crunched (at least, at first) as Prince plays more backup 2 minutes than we're expecting. |
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Fri Sep 29, 2023 1:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Dr. Laker wrote: | DLO - 28
AR - 30
RUI - 28
LBJ - 30
AD - 31
Gabe - 20
Christie - 18
Vando - 20
Wood - 20
Hayes - 15 |
It would be good to have LBJ and AD around 30 min per game for the regular season!!!
No Taurean Prince minutes? Or Cam?
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lakerican
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| Posted: Fri Sep 29, 2023 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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AD 33 33-240
AR 32 65-240
LBJ 30 95-240
DLO 28 123-240
RUI 24 147-240
GABE 20 167-240
VANDO 20 187-240
HAYES 15 202-240
WOOD 15 217-240
Prince 13 230-240
Christie/Reddish 10 240-240
11 man rotation at least first 30 games. |
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Lakeshow23_
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Joined: 02 May 2021
Posts: 567
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| Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2023 6:24 am Post subject: |
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| Is an 11 man rotation viable? Initially thought Hayes would be the odd man out but he's earned a spot in the rotation, at least for the start of the season. |
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dcarter4kobe
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Joined: 30 Jul 2005
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| Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2023 6:32 am Post subject: |
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| Lakeshow23_ wrote: | | Is an 11 man rotation viable? Initially thought Hayes would be the odd man out but he's earned a spot in the rotation, at least for the start of the season. |
Agreed. Hayes has earned a spot in the rotation. Maybe slide Prince down to the 2? Not sure but 11man rotation isnt ideal either.
AD-32/Hayes-12/Wood-4
LeBron-32/Wood-16
Vando-22/Rui-22/Prince-4
Reaves-32/Prince-12/Vincent-4
DLO-30/Vincnent-18
1. AD-32
2. LeBron-32
3. Reaves-32
4. DLO-30
5. Vando-22
6. Rui-22
7. Vincent-22
8. Wood-20
9. Prince-16
10. Hayes-12
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2023 7:39 am Post subject: |
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| textbook wrote: | Now that we’ve basically gone through the preseason, the team will have to come up with a solid rotation. I think some of the guys we think will be playing won’t and vice versa. Predictions are welcomed for analysis and debate.
DLo
Reaves
Prince
Bron
AD
I believe around the 8 min mark, we see:
DLo
Gabe
Vando
Rui
AD
Second q:
Gabe
Max
Vando
Rui
Wood
Transition to:
Gabe
Reaves
Prince
Bron
Wood
Then back to starters. Odd men out will be cam and Hayes. Hayes is a wildcard for spot up minutes. |
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alleyoop
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2023 8:09 am Post subject: |
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Christie odd man out IMO. Harsh, but Hayes has shown he fits this squad like a glove
DLo (12) - Vincent (24) - Bron (12)
Reaves (30) - DLo (18)
Prince (22) - Vando (20) - Bron (6)
Bron (14) - Rui (24) - Wood (10)
AD (32) - Hayes (10) - Wood (8)
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#18 next... |
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ArminNBA
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Posts: 2094
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2023 4:01 pm Post subject: Re: What is your ideal 2023-2024 rotation and minutes distribution? |
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| ArminNBA wrote: |
You can follow the build below by using 3-minute increments, just for ease. Also, of course, this rotation and minutes distribution presumes health, no foul trouble, and a competitive regular season game (no blowout either direction). As we all know, we rarely get to see the team in those conditions, but I thought it'd be fun to see how LGers would run the rotation with the Lakers at full health.
Minutes Distribution
D'Angelo Russell - 27
Austin Reaves - 33
Jarred Vanderbilt - 18
LeBron James - 33
Anthony Davis - 33
Gabe Vincent - 21
Max Christie - 15
Taurean Prince - 18
Rui Hachimura - 21
Christian Wood - 21
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Hayes has been so impressive in the preseason that I had to go and tinker with my pre-preseason rotation build and find a way to include him. Again, this rotation is restricted to using 3-minute increments and presumes health, no foul trouble, and a competitive game. The actual minute logs won't be this clean.
A couple notes:
— With DLo's impressive preseason play, I upped his minutes load to 33, which also enabled me to ensure that at least one of the Lakers' lead playmakers/creators (LeBron/Austin/DLo) is on the floor at all times.
— Unfortunately, with Vando out in the preseason, I ended up cutting his minutes in half and amping up Prince's minutes. I've been impressed with Prince's shooting and feel his 3&D capability fits the starting unit well. However, in my view, the Prince/Rui/Vando minutes are a bit interchangeable, depending on matchups and other issues that arise, like foul trouble.
Minutes Distribution
D'Angelo Russell - 33
Austin Reaves - 33
Taurean Prince - 24
LeBron James - 30
Anthony Davis - 33
Gabe Vincent - 21
Max Christie - 9
Jarred Vanderbilt - 9
Rui Hachimura - 24
Jaxson Hayes - 12
Christian Wood - 12
Rotation
Q1 12-6
DLo
Reaves
Prince
LeBron
AD
Q1 6-3
Gabe
Reaves
Rui
AD
Hayes
Q1 3-0
DLo
Gabe
Rui
Wood
Hayes
Q2 12-9
Gabe
Christie
LeBron
Vando
Wood
Q2 9-6
DLo
Gabe
Prince
Vando
Wood
Q2 6-3
DLo
Reaves
Prince
Rui
AD
Q2 3-0
DLo
Reaves
Rui
LeBron
AD
Q3 12-6
DLo
Reaves
Prince
LeBron
AD
Q3 6-3
DLo
Reaves
Rui
AD
Hayes
Q3 3-0
Gabe
Christie
Rui
LeBron
Hayes
Q4 12-9
Gabe
Christie
Prince
LeBron
Wood
Q4 9-6
Gabe
Reaves
Prince
Vando
AD
Q4 6-0
DLo
Reaves
Rui
LeBron
AD |
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Hanging from Rafters
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Joined: 31 Jul 2018
Posts: 4001
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2023 8:33 pm Post subject: Re: What is your ideal 2023-2024 rotation and minutes distribution? |
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| ArminNBA wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: |
You can follow the build below by using 3-minute increments, just for ease. Also, of course, this rotation and minutes distribution presumes health, no foul trouble, and a competitive regular season game (no blowout either direction). As we all know, we rarely get to see the team in those conditions, but I thought it'd be fun to see how LGers would run the rotation with the Lakers at full health.
Minutes Distribution
D'Angelo Russell - 27
Austin Reaves - 33
Jarred Vanderbilt - 18
LeBron James - 33
Anthony Davis - 33
Gabe Vincent - 21
Max Christie - 15
Taurean Prince - 18
Rui Hachimura - 21
Christian Wood - 21
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Hayes has been so impressive in the preseason that I had to go and tinker with my pre-preseason rotation build and find a way to include him. Again, this rotation is restricted to using 3-minute increments and presumes health, no foul trouble, and a competitive game. The actual minute logs won't be this clean.
A couple notes:
— With DLo's impressive preseason play, I upped his minutes load to 33, which also enabled me to ensure that at least one of the Lakers' lead playmakers/creators (LeBron/Austin/DLo) is on the floor at all times.
— Unfortunately, with Vando out in the preseason, I ended up cutting his minutes in half and amping up Prince's minutes. I've been impressed with Prince's shooting and feel his 3&D capability fits the starting unit well. However, in my view, the Prince/Rui/Vando minutes are a bit interchangeable, depending on matchups and other issues that arise, like foul trouble.
Minutes Distribution
D'Angelo Russell - 33
Austin Reaves - 33
Taurean Prince - 24
LeBron James - 30
Anthony Davis - 33
Gabe Vincent - 21
Max Christie - 9
Jarred Vanderbilt - 9
Rui Hachimura - 24
Jaxson Hayes - 12
Christian Wood - 12
Rotation
Q1 12-6
DLo
Reaves
Prince
LeBron
AD
Q1 6-3
Gabe
Reaves
Rui
AD
Hayes
Q1 3-0
DLo
Gabe
Rui
Wood
Hayes
Q2 12-9
Gabe
Christie
LeBron
Vando
Wood
Q2 9-6
DLo
Gabe
Prince
Vando
Wood
Q2 6-3
DLo
Reaves
Prince
Rui
AD
Q2 3-0
DLo
Reaves
Rui
LeBron
AD
Q3 12-6
DLo
Reaves
Prince
LeBron
AD
Q3 6-3
DLo
Reaves
Rui
AD
Hayes
Q3 3-0
Gabe
Christie
Rui
LeBron
Hayes
Q4 12-9
Gabe
Christie
Prince
LeBron
Wood
Q4 9-6
Gabe
Reaves
Prince
Vando
AD
Q4 6-0
DLo
Reaves
Rui
LeBron
AD |
Looks good…would like to see some Wood/AD tho…Hayes/AD not bad.
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miggz23
Star Player
Joined: 29 Nov 2018
Posts: 5909
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:13 pm Post subject: Re: What is your ideal 2023-2024 rotation and minutes distribution? |
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[quote="Hanging from Rafters"] | ArminNBA wrote: | | ArminNBA wrote: |
Hayes has been so impressive in the preseason that I had to go and tinker with my pre-preseason rotation build and find a way to include him. Again, this rotation is restricted to using 3-minute increments and presumes health, no foul trouble, and a competitive game. The actual minute logs won't be this clean.
A couple notes:
— With DLo's impressive preseason play, I upped his minutes load to 33, which also enabled me to ensure that at least one of the Lakers' lead playmakers/creators (LeBron/Austin/DLo) is on the floor at all times.
— Unfortunately, with Vando out in the preseason, I ended up cutting his minutes in half and amping up Prince's minutes. I've been impressed with Prince's shooting and feel his 3&D capability fits the starting unit well. However, in my view, the Prince/Rui/Vando minutes are a bit interchangeable, depending on matchups and other issues that arise, like foul trouble.
Minutes Distribution
D'Angelo Russell - 33
Austin Reaves - 33
Taurean Prince - 24
LeBron James - 30
Anthony Davis - 33
Gabe Vincent - 21
Max Christie - 9
Jarred Vanderbilt - 9
Rui Hachimura - 24
Jaxson Hayes - 12
Christian Wood - 12 |
Looks good…would like to see some Wood/AD tho…Hayes/AD not bad. |
No way Vando only get 9 minutes per game... That would be horrible asset management right there. Christie will be out of rotation. Hayes will be match-up dependent.
Last edited by miggz23 on Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:31 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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tox
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Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17398
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| Posted: Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:30 pm Post subject: |
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^ People need to realize the mpg of the team will be higher than 240 (48 * 5) since there are injuries.
For example, LeBron played 35.5 mpg last year... or did he? He played 1954 minutes last year, which is 23.8 mpg.
Someone will get squeezed when the team is fully healthy. It's most likely Christie, but it could be Wood, Hayes, or Vando. Eventually we'll figure out what lineups work (e.g. do the two big lineups work? if not, Wood might see his minutes diminish). What if the stats show the lineups with Vando are the worst due to his offensive impact? Christie is the youngest and least established so I expect him to get squeezed when we're healthy (note Vando is already hurt) to start the season, but by the end of the season we'll have a better sense of who's been effective.
I can totally imagine finding out that Wood is part of the Lakers' worst lineups and gets squeezed unless we're resting AD (or he's hurt).
But it's also very good to be able to deal with injuries. Vando is hurt and the rotation is still 10 deep. 11 deep even, if you're on Reddish island. |
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pjiddy
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Posts: 28694
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| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:41 am Post subject: |
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Guess i'm in the minority of people who think Wood will be getting 20+ mpg
There will be Wood/AD lineups and then Wood at the 5 lineups. Guard rotation will be much tighter than last year and i think we run more big lineups.
I think you'll always see 2 of DLO/Reaves/Vincent
and 3 of AD/Lebron/Rui/Wood/Prince/Vando
Ham will do 10-man rotations early on so i can see Hayes/Christie trading DNPs or spot minutes on that 10th spot. |
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defense
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| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:59 am Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | Guess i'm in the minority of people who think Wood will be getting 20+ mpg
There will be Wood/AD lineups and then Wood at the 5 lineups. Guard rotation will be much tighter than last year and i think we run more big lineups.
I think you'll always see 2 of DLO/Reaves/Vincent
and 3 of AD/Lebron/Rui/Wood/Prince/Vando
Ham will do 10-man rotations early on so i can see Hayes/Christie trading DNPs or spot minutes on that 10th spot. |
I would be shocked if Wood gets that much time. The only way I would imagine that happening is if Bigs get hurt. |
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2023 5:56 am Post subject: |
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| defense wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | Guess i'm in the minority of people who think Wood will be getting 20+ mpg
There will be Wood/AD lineups and then Wood at the 5 lineups. Guard rotation will be much tighter than last year and i think we run more big lineups.
I think you'll always see 2 of DLO/Reaves/Vincent
and 3 of AD/Lebron/Rui/Wood/Prince/Vando
Ham will do 10-man rotations early on so i can see Hayes/Christie trading DNPs or spot minutes on that 10th spot. |
I would be shocked if Wood gets that much time. The only way I would imagine that happening is if Bigs get hurt. |
AD wants another big on the floor with him and Wood is the only one that doens't clog the paint. The Lakers ran a ton of 5-out during postseason--you can see Ham wants to replicate what worked so well Milwaukee on their title run.
Wood is someone that fits with everybody--he mitigates Vando's space destruction. He's actually the only big that fits with him, so I expect Vando and Wood will be together a lot and Vando's minutes will pretty much equal Wood's minutes. Vando/AD/Lebron lineups were an offensive slog and you can't play him with Hayes at all.
I think once Wood catches up on concepts and his shot starts falling more (he was below his average in preseason), he's gonna be a much more obvious impact player. |
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defense
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| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2023 6:56 am Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | defense wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | Guess i'm in the minority of people who think Wood will be getting 20+ mpg
There will be Wood/AD lineups and then Wood at the 5 lineups. Guard rotation will be much tighter than last year and i think we run more big lineups.
I think you'll always see 2 of DLO/Reaves/Vincent
and 3 of AD/Lebron/Rui/Wood/Prince/Vando
Ham will do 10-man rotations early on so i can see Hayes/Christie trading DNPs or spot minutes on that 10th spot. |
I would be shocked if Wood gets that much time. The only way I would imagine that happening is if Bigs get hurt. |
AD wants another big on the floor with him and Wood is the only one that doens't clog the paint. The Lakers ran a ton of 5-out during postseason--you can see Ham wants to replicate what worked so well Milwaukee on their title run.
Wood is someone that fits with everybody--he mitigates Vando's space destruction. He's actually the only big that fits with him, so I expect Vando and Wood will be together a lot and Vando's minutes will pretty much equal Wood's minutes. Vando/AD/Lebron lineups were an offensive slog and you can't play him with Hayes at all.
I think once Wood catches up on concepts and his shot starts falling more (he was below his average in preseason), he's gonna be a much more obvious impact player. |
You might be right. I have only seen a small sample size of him in the preseason and I don't think he has looked good at all. I do hope you turn out to be right because I think we could use the spacing, rebounding and size. The big question I have is can Wood make the winning plays needed for a team like this. He has not been willing to do it in the past. His BBQIQ is very questionable. There is always a chance that the light bulb goes off though. |
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tox
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Posts: 17398
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| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2023 7:09 am Post subject: |
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| You sure? Based on what shape he came into camp, I might argue his BBQIQ is actually really high. Man was probably cooking some killer ribs all summer. |
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tox
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| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2023 7:11 am Post subject: |
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Anyway I've only caught half of a single preseason game so I have the least informed opinion. My sense was that Hayes will probably get the backup C minutes and that Wood will play more as a 4 next to AD, especially in every minute that LeBron isn't playing.
Wood might play more 5 when Vando is back since they (somewhat) cover each other's flaws though. |
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defense
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| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2023 7:40 am Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | | You sure? Based on what shape he came into camp, I might argue his BBQIQ is actually really high. Man was probably cooking some killer ribs all summer. |
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Hanging from Rafters
Star Player
Joined: 31 Jul 2018
Posts: 4001
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| Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:55 am Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | Anyway I've only caught half of a single preseason game so I have the least informed opinion. My sense was that Hayes will probably get the backup C minutes and that Wood will play more as a 4 next to AD, especially in every minute that LeBron isn't playing.
Wood might play more 5 when Vando is back since they (somewhat) cover each other's flaws though. |
This is an exciting time for the season, the anticipation and uncertainty is at an all time high for me. There will be a team that expects a top 4 seed who ends up in the play in, and a team that expects a playoff seed in the top 6 that will likely miss the post season altogether including the play in as 11h or lower. LAL/Pho/Den/GSW/LAC/Mem/Sac are 7 that all expect a top 4 seed so at least one will have to settle for a playin spot. Dal/Min/NOP/OKC probably expect to rise to top 6 yet one likely won’t even make the play in.
The rotation by Ham is going to be critical for the Lakers. Hope he gets it right and soon.
There will be 8 or 9 in the rotation that are counted on to win games AD/LBJ/Wood/Rui/Vand/Prince/AR/Dlo/Vinc
The rest MaxC/Cam/Hayes plus rookies and two-way may not see the court unless garbage or major injury.
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“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.” |
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Hanging from Rafters
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Joined: 31 Jul 2018
Posts: 4001
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| Posted: Sun Oct 22, 2023 7:58 am Post subject: |
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After pre-season, Van out, and Prince anounced as the 5th starter, I see the 8 man rotation used to try to win the first game as being:
AD/Hayes
LBJ/Rui
Prince/LBJ
AR/Dlo
Dlo/Vinc
I’ve replaced Wood’s expectation with expectations for Hayes.
We’ll see if/how either of Wood/Cam/MaxC get minutes. They almost surely will…Ham will go with 10 or 11…but I see those 3 limited to brief stints and/or garbage time.
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“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.” |
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gng930
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| Posted: Sun Oct 22, 2023 8:30 am Post subject: |
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They postulated on the LFR podcast that Ham might be tempted to play Wood so that his floor spacing can draw Jokic out. Otherwise, I agree that Wood/Cam/Max are at least a tier below the other regulars.
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2023 8:55 am Post subject: |
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Predicted minutes for the season opener against the Nuggets:
AD-24/Hayes-12/Wood-12
LBJ-32/Rui-8/(AD-8)
Prince-24/(Rui16)/(MaxC-8)
AR-32/MaxC-8/(Dlo-8)
Dlo-24/Vince-24
32-AD/LBJ/AR/Dlo
24-Rui/Prince/Vince
16-MaxC
12-Hayes/Wood-12
_________________
“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.” |
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defense
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| Posted: Tue Oct 24, 2023 11:00 am Post subject: |
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| gng930 wrote: | | They postulated on the LFR podcast that Ham might be tempted to play Wood so that his floor spacing can draw Jokic out. Otherwise, I agree that Wood/Cam/Max are at least a tier below the other regulars. |
Jokic is not some beast defender. Is drawing him out some big advantage for us? |
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Wed Oct 25, 2023 6:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Hanging from Rafters wrote: |
…There will be 8 or 9 in the rotation that are counted on to win games AD/LBJ/Wood/Rui/Vand/Prince/AR/Dlo/Vinc.
The rest MaxC/Cam/Hayes plus rookies and two-way may not see the court unless garbage or major injury. |
Seems about right predicting for the 1st game. Cam likely only got minutes since Van wasn’t available but if he is consistent then his play may create a 10-man rotation for the reg season. Also, is Van gonna lose his starting spot to TaP? Was thinking after the game that MaxC/Hayes getting <5min was surprising but after revisiting this post I guess not.
Of course it’s way way too early to say for sure but it should be interesting to see how it shapes up as the season progresses. Wish we could find a way to get AD some significant minutes at PF.
AD32/Wood16
LBJ28/Rui20
TaP28/Van20
AR32/Cam16
Dlo32/Vin16
(Minus garbage and/or trivial minutes from Hayes/MaC)
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“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.” |
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