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Hanging from Rafters
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 Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2023 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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There are 6 players…Wood/Hayes, TaP/Rui, Cam/MaC…to ponder their surprising minutes after two games into the reg season. How do we predict it shakes out going forward?
Although there were plenty who predicted MaC would be the odd man out, and that Wood/TaP would play a decent role, consensus seemed to show that those three, along with 3 others in Hayes(less than expected)/Rui(less than expected)/Cam(more than expected), are surprising most with their rotational minutes.
Can we make sense of it all?
Hayes and Wood exchanged effectiveness from preseason to the first two games of the reg season resulting in Wood getting the minutes most predicted for Hayes. Hayes has been given…tho limited…opportunities by subbing in early but maybe Wood just needed to get in better game shape and used the preseason to do it. TaP minutes could obviously be related to Van being out but now comes the anomalies:
Why has Rui been limited? Shouldn’t he get more minutes at PF/SF with load managed minutes by LBJ and Van out?
Why has MaC’s usage been DNP-like for BOTH games? Shouldn’t he at least get 5 minutes or so to take a look at him like the opportunity given to Hayes?
Why has Cam received more time than predicted? He’s looked decent so far but seemingly not enough to DNP MaC and play more than Rui?
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tox
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| Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2023 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Cam's minutes probably go bye bye when Vando is back |
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2023 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | | Cam's minutes probably go bye bye when Vando is back |
Agree, Van’s return likely limits the minutes of TaP/Cam…and Wood likely continues to get minutes away from Hayes…but what about Rui? It it too early to even consider? With Van out I still would not have predicted Cam playing more than Rui, also is MaC not ready?
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“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.” |
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Dominator
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| Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2023 2:15 pm Post subject: |
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| We desperately need Vando to come back to get Prince out of the starting lineup and Hayes out of the rotation. I'd also like to see Max Christie getting Reddish's minutes. |
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Fri Oct 27, 2023 5:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Dominator wrote: | | We desperately need Vando to come back to get Prince out of the starting lineup and Hayes out of the rotation. I'd also like to see Max Christie getting Reddish's minutes. |
Wood has been a much much more impactful player than Hayes in the past. The preseason created some unrealistic wishful thinking but it shouldn’t be a major surprise that Wood is getting the time over Hayes. Of course TaP playing more is directly related to Van being out and indirectly related to some of Cam’s minutes.
What is confusing is that Rui has played less than Cam and that MaC has played 1 minute in two games. Van being out doesn’t explain that, nor doesn’t his return look to fix the fact that Rui/MaC have gotten lower playing time than expected. If anything, the time would look to be reduced even more for both of them…Rui/MaC…when Van returns.
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tox
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| Posted: Sat Oct 28, 2023 10:05 am Post subject: |
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I think Darvin is still figuring out rotations. He has a ton of wiggle room, since next to LeBron/ AD you can play any of Prince, Rui, and Wood for very different looks but still good floor spacing for the 5 out. With Vando back that's a fourth option although I'm not sure that works for the 5 out.
I think Rui is on a learning curve right now. He is developing his game while also learning a new offense, which probably explains his lack of effectiveness. He's not just doing the simple reads as the fifth option like during the playoffs. Give him some time to figure it out; I'm sure he'll carve out a niche of 20-30 mpg by the end of the season. Though I do think Wood is the guy eating into Rui's minutes the most. |
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venturalakersfan
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| Posted: Sat Oct 28, 2023 10:08 am Post subject: |
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Ham is a Woods guy, there is no question about that. And Rui so far this season hasn’t looked much different than Rui in previous seasons.
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Tue Oct 31, 2023 12:22 am Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | Guess i'm in the minority of people who think Wood will be getting 20+ mpg
There will be Wood/AD lineups and then Wood at the 5 lineups. Guard rotation will be much tighter than last year and i think we run more big lineups.
I think you'll always see 2 of DLO/Reaves/Vincent
and 3 of AD/Lebron/Rui/Wood/Prince/Vando
Ham will do 10-man rotations early on so i can see Hayes/Christie trading DNPs or spot minutes on that 10th spot. |
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Tue Oct 31, 2023 12:24 am Post subject: |
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| Dominator wrote: | | We desperately need Vando to come back to get Prince out of the starting lineup and Hayes out of the rotation. I'd also like to see Max Christie getting Reddish's minutes. |
Yeah, get Prince and his 45% from 3 out of the starting lineup and get Vando and his gravity-defying offense and Avery Bradley-Appearing-to-Play-All-Pro defense in there pronto. |
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Tue Oct 31, 2023 8:46 am Post subject: |
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The Lakers have used 7 players to win games at ~20min/game or more. Not sure what’s going on with Rui/Cam (-12/-15 respectively) at about 14-12 min/game but here is the +/- for the 7 at 20ish minutes per game:
Best
Wood +49
LBJ +29
Vin +10
Dlo +9
Worse
AR -51
TaP -44
AD -22 (skewed by -17 at Denver)
All of the 10 players used in non-garbage time…including Rui/Cam/Hayes…have a + in at least one game except for AR/TaP who have been consistently double digit negative in every game (AR double digit negative in every game, TaP every game except -5 at Den). Both have been the only Laker to be negative in EVERY game tho.
Wood is the only Laker to be + in every game and LBJ/Dlo/Vin/Hayes have been positive in 3 out of 4, (Hayes +2 overall).
+/- isn’t reliable in a vacuum, AD is 3rd worse at -22, but when the analysis is pared with lack of production it can be an indicator of in-effectiveness. TaP has been good in two games and invisibly bad in two games AR subpar in all four. AD has had 3 and a half good games with a bad half against Denver but overall he of course has been one if not the best Laker.
What to make of it? It is 4 games in with an absurdly small sample size but…before the wheels fall off…I think it shows that if Wood/Vin replace TaP/AR in the starting line up the Lakers could possibly avoid catastrophe. It’s a prediction not a conclusion and not without risk, but perhaps, for now, the team would do better with the move.
Until Van returns:
Wood32
AD32
LBJ32
Dlo32
Vin32
Rui27/TaP26/AR27 competing more productively mostly against opponent’s reserves.
Cam/MaC/Hayes garbage time
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tox
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| Posted: Wed Nov 01, 2023 7:31 am Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | Dominator wrote: | | We desperately need Vando to come back to get Prince out of the starting lineup and Hayes out of the rotation. I'd also like to see Max Christie getting Reddish's minutes. |
Yeah, get Prince and his 45% from 3 out of the starting lineup and get Vando and his gravity-defying offense and Avery Bradley-Appearing-to-Play-All-Pro defense in there pronto. |
Bad take honestly, the starters have a DRTG of 120 in 55 min apparently. Not a giant sample size but still. Prince's ability to shoot is obviously valuable, but Vando being a versatile on ball defender is important for Ham to hide AR/DLO as a PoA defender. And he'll help a lot on the rebounding front as well. Not to mention his general activity levels. |
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defense
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| Posted: Wed Nov 01, 2023 8:00 am Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | Dominator wrote: | | We desperately need Vando to come back to get Prince out of the starting lineup and Hayes out of the rotation. I'd also like to see Max Christie getting Reddish's minutes. |
Yeah, get Prince and his 45% from 3 out of the starting lineup and get Vando and his gravity-defying offense and Avery Bradley-Appearing-to-Play-All-Pro defense in there pronto. |
Bad take honestly, the starters have a DRTG of 120 in 55 min apparently. Not a giant sample size but still. Prince's ability to shoot is obviously valuable, but Vando being a versatile on ball defender is important for Ham to hide AR/DLO as a PoA defender. And he'll help a lot on the rebounding front as well. Not to mention his general activity levels. |
Prince isn't really the problem defensively. It's Lebron, Russell and Reaves right now. I do agree we need Vando to balance out the line up though. |
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LakersRGolden
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Joined: 13 Jan 2002
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Location: Lake Forest
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| Posted: Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:28 am Post subject: |
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| defense wrote: | | tox wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | Dominator wrote: | | We desperately need Vando to come back to get Prince out of the starting lineup and Hayes out of the rotation. I'd also like to see Max Christie getting Reddish's minutes. |
Yeah, get Prince and his 45% from 3 out of the starting lineup and get Vando and his gravity-defying offense and Avery Bradley-Appearing-to-Play-All-Pro defense in there pronto. |
Bad take honestly, the starters have a DRTG of 120 in 55 min apparently. Not a giant sample size but still. Prince's ability to shoot is obviously valuable, but Vando being a versatile on ball defender is important for Ham to hide AR/DLO as a PoA defender. And he'll help a lot on the rebounding front as well. Not to mention his general activity levels. |
Prince isn't really the problem defensively. It's Lebron, Russell and Reaves right now. I do agree we need Vando to balance out the line up though. |
TP's rebounding is subpar, so we need to be careful who the bigs are in his lineups, especially if he's the 3.
The lineups where he's a 2 are pretty effective as long as it doesn't create a monster mismatch for the other team. |
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tox
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| Posted: Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:33 am Post subject: |
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| defense wrote: | | tox wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | Dominator wrote: | | We desperately need Vando to come back to get Prince out of the starting lineup and Hayes out of the rotation. I'd also like to see Max Christie getting Reddish's minutes. |
Yeah, get Prince and his 45% from 3 out of the starting lineup and get Vando and his gravity-defying offense and Avery Bradley-Appearing-to-Play-All-Pro defense in there pronto. |
Bad take honestly, the starters have a DRTG of 120 in 55 min apparently. Not a giant sample size but still. Prince's ability to shoot is obviously valuable, but Vando being a versatile on ball defender is important for Ham to hide AR/DLO as a PoA defender. And he'll help a lot on the rebounding front as well. Not to mention his general activity levels. |
Prince isn't really the problem defensively. It's Lebron, Russell and Reaves right now. I do agree we need Vando to balance out the line up though. |
It's not the Prince is "the problem" but if you're committed to starting Russell, Reaves, and LeBron, then you want someone who can make up for their shortcomings on defense. Vando's PoA defense + activity levels really can offset other weaknesses and complement AD.
Also, +1 to rebounding issues if Prince is the 3. |
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defense
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| Posted: Wed Nov 01, 2023 10:39 am Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | | defense wrote: | | tox wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | Dominator wrote: | | We desperately need Vando to come back to get Prince out of the starting lineup and Hayes out of the rotation. I'd also like to see Max Christie getting Reddish's minutes. |
Yeah, get Prince and his 45% from 3 out of the starting lineup and get Vando and his gravity-defying offense and Avery Bradley-Appearing-to-Play-All-Pro defense in there pronto. |
Bad take honestly, the starters have a DRTG of 120 in 55 min apparently. Not a giant sample size but still. Prince's ability to shoot is obviously valuable, but Vando being a versatile on ball defender is important for Ham to hide AR/DLO as a PoA defender. And he'll help a lot on the rebounding front as well. Not to mention his general activity levels. |
Prince isn't really the problem defensively. It's Lebron, Russell and Reaves right now. I do agree we need Vando to balance out the line up though. |
It's not the Prince is "the problem" but if you're committed to starting Russell, Reaves, and LeBron, then you want someone who can make up for their shortcomings on defense. Vando's PoA defense + activity levels really can offset other weaknesses and complement AD.
Also, +1 to rebounding issues if Prince is the 3. |
Agree with all of thee above |
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Thu Nov 02, 2023 1:42 pm Post subject: |
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| tox wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | Dominator wrote: | | We desperately need Vando to come back to get Prince out of the starting lineup and Hayes out of the rotation. I'd also like to see Max Christie getting Reddish's minutes. |
Yeah, get Prince and his 45% from 3 out of the starting lineup and get Vando and his gravity-defying offense and Avery Bradley-Appearing-to-Play-All-Pro defense in there pronto. |
Bad take honestly, the starters have a DRTG of 120 in 55 min apparently. Not a giant sample size but still. Prince's ability to shoot is obviously valuable, but Vando being a versatile on ball defender is important for Ham to hide AR/DLO as a PoA defender. And he'll help a lot on the rebounding front as well. Not to mention his general activity levels. |
I'd play Cam over Vando at this point. Vando is a big fat offensive negative and his defense is increasingly overrated on this board. He's definitely in the Avery Bradley school of "he seems to be playing elite defense" because of his "activity levels." And for whatever he offsets defensively, he kills the offense. Defenses can safely crowd the basket and everyone else on the perimeter, meaning every offensive attempt is either "Vando clanks a wide open 3" or "Vando passes to someone to take a tough a shot."
To me, he's a 10mpg a guy. Someone you can only put out there with Wood, who can be out on the perimeter and thus leave the dunker spot for Vando, an area he doesn't even really exploit that well due to his Kwame-level hands/finishing ability around the basket. To me, he's the worst big wing option we have. |
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Thu Nov 02, 2023 2:56 pm Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | tox wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | Dominator wrote: | | We desperately need Vando to come back to get Prince out of the starting lineup and Hayes out of the rotation. I'd also like to see Max Christie getting Reddish's minutes. |
Yeah, get Prince and his 45% from 3 out of the starting lineup and get Vando and his gravity-defying offense and Avery Bradley-Appearing-to-Play-All-Pro defense in there pronto. |
Bad take honestly, the starters have a DRTG of 120 in 55 min apparently. Not a giant sample size but still. Prince's ability to shoot is obviously valuable, but Vando being a versatile on ball defender is important for Ham to hide AR/DLO as a PoA defender. And he'll help a lot on the rebounding front as well. Not to mention his general activity levels. |
I'd play Cam over Vando at this point. Vando is a big fat offensive negative and his defense is increasingly overrated on this board. He's definitely in the Avery Bradley school of "he seems to be playing elite defense" because of his "activity levels." And for whatever he offsets defensively, he kills the offense. Defenses can safely crowd the basket and everyone else on the perimeter, meaning every offensive attempt is either "Vando clanks a wide open 3" or "Vando passes to someone to take a tough a shot."
To me, he's a 10mpg a guy. Someone you can only put out there with Wood, who can be out on the perimeter and thus leave the dunker spot for Vando, an area he doesn't even really exploit that well due to his Kwame-level hands/finishing ability around the basket. To me, he's the worst big wing option we have. |
Seems like Van hit a few 3pt pre-season shots and we haven’t seen him this season in regulation. We’ll have to see how it plays out. He certainly looked as you describe last year but we don’t know what this year’s version looks like. If it turns out to be as you say then yea, me too!
I remember the game against the Pels last year (was it Van’s 1st w/Lakers?) when Van dominated Ingram on defense and basically won the game on the defensive end for us. I looked for that the rest of the season last year and that production never seemed to happen again. Supposedly Van worked with Handy and grew an inch this summer! Lol! We’ll have to see what he looos like on the floor before a decision is made on his minutes.
Cam may take TaP’s playing time before and after Van comes back and perhaps takes some of Van’s too after his return.
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“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.” |
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tox
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Joined: 16 Nov 2015
Posts: 17398
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| Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2023 10:37 pm Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | tox wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | Dominator wrote: | | We desperately need Vando to come back to get Prince out of the starting lineup and Hayes out of the rotation. I'd also like to see Max Christie getting Reddish's minutes. |
Yeah, get Prince and his 45% from 3 out of the starting lineup and get Vando and his gravity-defying offense and Avery Bradley-Appearing-to-Play-All-Pro defense in there pronto. |
Bad take honestly, the starters have a DRTG of 120 in 55 min apparently. Not a giant sample size but still. Prince's ability to shoot is obviously valuable, but Vando being a versatile on ball defender is important for Ham to hide AR/DLO as a PoA defender. And he'll help a lot on the rebounding front as well. Not to mention his general activity levels. |
I'd play Cam over Vando at this point. Vando is a big fat offensive negative and his defense is increasingly overrated on this board. He's definitely in the Avery Bradley school of "he seems to be playing elite defense" because of his "activity levels." And for whatever he offsets defensively, he kills the offense. Defenses can safely crowd the basket and everyone else on the perimeter, meaning every offensive attempt is either "Vando clanks a wide open 3" or "Vando passes to someone to take a tough a shot."
To me, he's a 10mpg a guy. Someone you can only put out there with Wood, who can be out on the perimeter and thus leave the dunker spot for Vando, an area he doesn't even really exploit that well due to his Kwame-level hands/finishing ability around the basket. To me, he's the worst big wing option we have. |
I think you're both underrating Vando's defense (even if you're right his defense is largely overrated on LG -- I'd counter that his defense is important in Ham's schemes which may be an indictment on Ham) and his non-defense value. His offense isn't any worse than Reddish, he's actually a good defender, he can play the short roll decently well, he's not THAT bad at finishing (agreed he's bad) etc.
I think the Lakers will look way better when he's back. It sucks having AD and Vando both on offense clogging up the spacing though, for sure. |
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2023 7:13 am Post subject: |
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Really need Shro right now, hindsight is 20/20 and there’s still a lot of season to go but the durability of Shro was missed as an attribute. Without Vinc it’s gonna be tough to get decent backcourt play. Perhaps starting Wood could help out rim protection to help cover for the back court sieves on D.
If Hayes isn’t gonna be available against the Heat 11/6:
Wood32/(AD16)
AD20/(LBJ28)
LBJ8/TaP24/Cam16
AR24/(Cam8)/MaC16
Dlo36/(AR12)
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“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.” |
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ocho
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| Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2023 8:18 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Really need Shro right now, hindsight is 20/20 and there’s still a lot of season to go but the durability of Shro was missed as an attribute. |
Gabe played more games last year than Dennis. We may come to regret Gabe over Dennis but I think we need more than 4 games to make that determination.
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2023 8:53 am Post subject: |
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| ocho wrote: | | Quote: | | Really need Shro right now, hindsight is 20/20 and there’s still a lot of season to go but the durability of Shro was missed as an attribute. |
Gabe played more games last year than Dennis. We may come to regret Gabe over Dennis but I think we need more than 4 games to make that determination. |
Oh no doubt…I agree…no conclusions can be made with such a small sample size of 6 games in. It’s just speculation and predictions at this point. Things could change around completely in just a few weeks. As stated, “There’s still a lot of season to go.”
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“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.” |
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Treble Clef
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| Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2023 11:13 am Post subject: |
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| Last night was a great example of why limiting LeBron's minutes is going to be impossible. The +/- with LeBron in the game is insane and as long as the game is within 20 in the 4th quarter, they have a very good chance of winning with him in there. |
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defense
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| Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2023 12:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Not impossible, just not doing it. I'm sure we could still be 3-4 while keep Lebron and Davis' minutes down. |
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Sat Nov 11, 2023 5:19 pm Post subject: |
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Ham probably needs to continue tweaking the rotations. Start Wood, and play Rui more than TaP, both will help with the rebounding problem. Continue to play AR with the 2nd unit and as the closer with Dlo as the starter paired with Cam. Maybe that scheme…Wood starting, Rui more than TaP, Cam starting, AR bench…addresses the poor 1st quarter issues too.
Wood32/(AD16)
AD16/Rui32
LBJ32/TaP16
Cam32/(AR16)
Dlo32/AR16
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“When it looks as if it is a realistic possibility, I want to focus on winning a ship like it’s a goal that can’t be denied. I didn’t see that this off season.” |
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miggz23
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Posts: 5909
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| Posted: Sat Nov 11, 2023 5:45 pm Post subject: |
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I would go
AD
Lebron
Rui
Cam
DLO
Hayes
Wood
Lebron
TP
Reaves
AD sub in for Hayes and Rui for Bron. |
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