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ChickenStu
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 Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2023 11:43 am Post subject: |
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| Bob Nightengale reported earlier this morning that the Dodgers have engaged the White Sox in trade talks for Dylan Cease. |
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MookieBetts50
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| Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2023 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | Bob Nightengale reported earlier this morning that the Dodgers have engaged the White Sox in trade talks for Dylan Cease. |
Excellent if we get Cease, Yamamoto and Ohtani. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 9:31 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Phillies, Bryce Harper Expected To Discuss Extension
The Philadelphia Phillies want to do all they can to make sure Bryce Harper never plays for another team.
Harper's 13-year, $330 million contract doesn't expire until after the 2031 season, but the two sides are expected to discuss a possible extension that would pay him more than his current $26 million annual salary. |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 11:17 am Post subject: |
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| A Phillies insider reported in a Philly newspaper that not only did the Braves offer Aaron Nola $162MM (and this wasn't even their final offer), but that the Dodgers offered him $165MM. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:14 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | A Phillies insider reported in a Philly newspaper that not only did the Braves offer Aaron Nola $162MM (and this wasn't even their final offer), but that the Dodgers offered him $165MM. |
Not that I wanted him at that price, but our philosophy of coming up just short of the highest offers doesn’t seem to be attractive to free agents. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Rival executives believe the Atlanta Braves could be planning a big move this offseason after they cleared more than $12 million in projected arbitration salary through trades and non-tenders.
It's widely expected that the Braves will at least inquire about signing Shohei Ohtani.
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Bruce Kuntz
@Bnicklaus7
Baseball America’s new Top 10 #Dodgers prospects list:
1. IF Michael Busch
2. C Dalton Rushing
3. RHP Gavin Stone
4. OF Andy Pages
5. RHP Nick Frasso
6. OF Josue De Paula
7. RHP Kyle Hurt
8. RHP River Ryan
9. C Diego Cartaya
10. LHP Maddux Bruns |
Wow, Diego Cartaya's in a free fall. I've never seen us have a prospect fall so far, so fast in one year. Dude was pretty much a top 10-15 prospect in all of baseball last yr.
Now, he's barely top 10 in our system. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Holly Baylor
@HollyBaylorMLB
SOURCE: #Braves, Sonny Gray are "gaining traction" on a multi-year deal. Dodgers were previously in mix |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Quote: | Holly Baylor
@HollyBaylorMLB
SOURCE: #Braves, Sonny Gray are "gaining traction" on a multi-year deal. Dodgers were previously in mix |
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Has had an excellent career, save for his stint with the Yankees. Has certainly had some injury issues, but he's a very good pitcher. |
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SGV-Laker fan
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 2:23 pm Post subject: |
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| again, Dodgers are always mentioned in rumors, and other teams get mentioned in actual signing news. |
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32
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MookieBetts50
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 4:33 pm Post subject: |
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Lance "Long Ball" Lynn signs deal with St. Louis
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 5:04 pm Post subject: |
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We are the betting favorites for Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, as well as Burnes if he's traded. Basically, Vegas is aware that the public perception is that the Dodgers are going to make big moves this offseason. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 10:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Sounds like Ohtani has narrowed it down to the Cubs or Dodgers |
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Lamar's Bud
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Sounds like Ohtani has narrowed it down to the Cubs or Dodgers |
Source?
I read an article yesterday or so that the Mariners were "out", kind of intimating they were taking themselves out of the running. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 10:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Lamar's Bud wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Sounds like Ohtani has narrowed it down to the Cubs or Dodgers |
Source?
I read an article yesterday or so that the Mariners were "out", kind of intimating they were taking themselves out of the running. |
It's coming from some Cubs insider named Bruce Levine:
| Quote: | One such person is Bruce Levine, who shared a little information Saturday morning on 670 The Score’s Inside the Clubhouse.
| Quote: | | ”The huge news on the North Side as well…Shohei Ohtani,” Levine said. “And the Chicago Cubs have pretty much made it clear that it’s them and the Dodgers being involved. The Cubs haven’t made it known, but social media and all sources that I have and other people have insist that it could be Dodgers/Cubs all the way when it comes to getting a deal done for Ohtani, which will be a record-setting deal.” |
https://www.cubsinsider.com/2023/11/18/cubs-may-be-dodgers-only-real-competition-for-shohei-ohtani-who-should-generate-100m-annual-revenue/ |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2023 11:27 pm Post subject: |
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^
If this is actually true, remember how Ohtani's camp wanted strict radio silence from the teams, and would be upset if there were any leaks? Well, perhaps this would be considered as a leak from the Cubs' side of things, even if this guy isn't actually a Cubs employee. He obviously had to hear something from someone associated with the team, if this is, indeed, accurate.
They do have Seiya Suzuki, though he was never a teammate of Ohtani in the NPB. If they are willing to throw even more money at him than we are, you have to wonder if their cozy ballpark for hitters might appeal to him. That said, they can't offer him perennial shots at the postseason like we can.
If this report is actually true, I like our chances as long as we offer him just as much money as the Cubs do. But what if the Cubs throw something like 10/$600MM at him, as Jon Heyman thinks he can get? Will we really be willing to go that far? |
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lakersken80
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| Posted: Tue Nov 21, 2023 12:36 am Post subject: |
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| If Dodgers were to give Ohtani close to a 600 million contract, they would have almost close to a billion tied up to 2 players...wow! |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:40 am Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | If this report is actually true, I like our chances as long as we offer him just as much money as the Cubs do. But what if the Cubs throw something like 10/$600MM at him, as Jon Heyman thinks he can get? Will we really be willing to go that far? |
In one of those articles, Levine talks about Ohtani generating $100M in revenue for the Angels, per year:
| Quote: | ”I talked to a source this week with the Los Angeles Angels and he told me that Ohtani is worth $100 million in (annual) revenue for a team that has him,” Levine continued. “He was that for the Los Angeles Angels this past year. Hundred million dollars in revenue.
”So if this guy is gonna get a contract that’s $50 million a year for the next 10 years, it’s gonna cost the team a lot. I mean, it’s a big part of the payroll. But the amount of revenue — merchandising, marketing, ticket sales, international marketing — all of those things going into this make it a win-win for the player and whatever team signs [him].”
https://www.cubsinsider.com/2023/11/18/cubs-may-be-dodgers-only-real-competition-for-shohei-ohtani-who-should-generate-100m-annual-revenue/# |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:47 am Post subject: |
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Odds on where Ohtani signs:
| Quote: | Los Angeles Dodgers +110
Chicago Cubs +350
San Francisco Giants +650
New York Mets +800
New York Yankees +800
Texas Rangers +900
Boston Red Sox +1000
Seattle Mariners +1200
Los Angeles Angels +1600
Philadelphia Phillies +1800
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Looks like the odds back up the rumors |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Tue Nov 21, 2023 8:45 am Post subject: |
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Will Ohtani pitch again?
| Quote: | Interviews with seven executives from teams interested in Ohtani, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity because the collective-bargaining agreement prohibits club officials from commenting on free agents, revealed a variety of opinions on the type of contract he will command, his potential impact on a team’s business and yes, his pitching future.
| Quote: | “I think he will come back. I think he will pitch very, very successfully for a period of time,” an AL executive said. “What I need to understand is, what is his desire to pitch? How long does he want to pitch? Nez is going to say one thing. But at the root of it, I think this guy’s a hitter. I think that’s what he loves. I don’t know how long he wants to pitch and how long he can successfully continue to do that.”
Said an NL executive, “I’ll bet on him returning. I just don’t know how long to make the bet. That’s the hard part. What’s the staying power?” |
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| Quote: | Ohtani’s surgeon, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, said in his initial statement after the procedure that Ohtani will be ready to hit without restriction by Opening Day 2024, and both hit and pitch in 2025. Balelo has declined to publicly specify the type of surgery Ohtani underwent. The Los Angeles Times reported that it was his second Tommy John.
At some point Balelo will share that information with clubs, if he hasn’t already. No team will sign Ohtani for an expected guarantee of at least 10 years and $500 million without full access to his medical records. Any agreement also will be contingent on a physical examination.
Opening Day 2025 seems a reasonable target for Ohtani’s return as a pitcher. At that point, he will be 18 months removed from surgery. But a pitcher coming off a second ligament repair does not always progress as predictably as one coming off his first. Ohtani will be hitting while rehabilitating. It seems doubtful he would carry a full workload as a pitcher in ‘25.
| Quote: | | “Even if he wants to pitch, who knows how much he’ll be able to,” an NL executive said. “There’s some chance he won’t get over the hump and is done pitching, whether he wants to (continue) or not. The other thing is, 30-year-old pitchers get four-, five-, six- and maybe if they’re really lucky seven-year deals. There is zero chance he’s going to be pitching as long as the likely duration of this deal.” |
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What's Ohtani's market value as a hitter?
| Quote: | If Ohtani was merely a hitter, he still might surpass Mike Trout’s record $426.5 million guarantee for a position player, a deal Trout signed as an extension without the benefit of open bidding. He also might surpass Aaron Judge’s record $40 million average annual value, even though Judge is a superior offensive force.
Such is the nature of Ohtani’s international stardom. And his talent.
| Quote: | | “The offensive projection is so good — the bat tool, and also the running tool. I don’t want to say (pitching) doesn’t matter. But it almost doesn’t matter,” an AL executive said. “It is of some value, but it’s mitigated somewhat. He already has put himself in another category on his offense alone.” |
Even if Ohtani never pitches again, he could be more than simply a DH. He played 64 games in the outfield in 2013 and ‘14, his first two seasons in Japan. He also has made seven major-league appearances in the outfield, all as a late-inning reserve in 2021 so the Angels could keep his bat in the lineup after he left the game as a pitcher. His cameos ended when Major League Baseball adopted the “Shohei Ohtani rule” in ‘22, enabling any pitcher who serves as a DH to remain in the lineup once his outing is over.
| Quote: | “I would argue if he’s not pitching, he’s at least going to play the outfield, maybe center field,” one executive said. “At least at this stage of his career, he can really run. And you would think he could throw well enough.
“It’s still paying a lot for a corner outfielder, especially when you’re paying some for at least for the prospect of him pitching. But that’s a little bit of a soft landing if the pitching thing doesn’t work out. He’s one of the best athletes in the game. He should at least be able to play right field.” |
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Ohtani in the outfield:
| Quote: | Ohtani’s sprint speed, as measured by Statcast, has dropped over the past three seasons from the 91st percentile to the 75th to the 63rd.
He still stole 20 bases in 26 attempts last season and ranked 30th overall, just behind Mookie Betts, in Fangraphs’ baserunning metric.
If Ohtani wasn’t pitching, presumably he could expend more energy running. Some with the Angels think he could be a Gold Glove right fielder. And that might be the worst-case scenario, if he could not pitch.
Paying $500 million for a right fielder perhaps would be ill-advised.
Judge, who hit the market last offseason when he was 15 months older than Ohtani, hardly is certain to age well. |
Ohtani's value to a franchise off the field (comparison to Lionel Messi):
| Quote: | But Ohtani’s ability to pitch is not the only fascinating variable in his free agency. His transcendent star power is another.
| Quote: | | “Look at the example of Messi in Miami,” an AL executive said, referring to soccer legend Lionel Messi. “I think Ohtani is the same model.” |
Messi, coming off his World Cup triumph with Argentina, single-handedly transformed Major League Soccer’s Inter Miami franchise last July, signing with the team for 2 1/2 seasons and between $50 million and $60 million annually.
Inter Miami plays in a temporary stadium. It had the lowest attendance in MLS last year. Messi flipped both the narrative around the club and its financial outlook as it plans to open a new $1 billion stadium in 2025.
Soccer’s reach is greater than baseball’s, so it’s doubtful kids around the world will buy Ohtani merchandise the way they are buying Messi’s Inter Miami jerseys. But baseball operations officials from teams interested in Ohtani are not the only ones crunching numbers when trying to project his potential impact. The marketing and finance departments are at it, too.
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Ohtani's value to big market teams and TV:
| Quote: | Ohtani would mean different things to different franchises. He would not help teams such as the Dodgers and Yankees sell many more tickets. Both those teams annually are among the sport’s attendance leaders.
| Quote: | But even for those clubs, one executive said, “there would be a halo effect on the brand.” The signing of Ohtani would energize fans.
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Yet, at a time when the league is dealing with a bankrupt Diamond Sports, which broadcasts 11 of its 30 clubs, and considering direct-to-consumer streaming models, Ohtani perhaps would make his greatest impact as a television star.
Of the teams in jeopardy of losing their deals with Diamond, the Rangers and Angels are the ones known to be most interested in Ohtani. Signing him would give either of those clubs an instant path to a major rights package, perhaps creating incentive for them to bid higher.
The league also could benefit if Ohtani’s next team agreed to allow its broadcast rights to be bundled with those other clubs. If the league someday could include that team as part of a larger package featuring, say, 15 clubs, it could then market the package to the likes of Apple with Ohtani as the centerpiece.
| Quote: | | “It’s all about eyeballs,” an AL executive said. “And he brings eyeballs to the table.” |
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The additional revenue that Ohtani generates for a team:
| Quote: | The additional revenue Ohtani could generate for himself through endorsements and the amount his team could generate through sponsorships likely would vary from market to market.
Forbes estimated Ohtani made at least $35 million in endorsements last season. The Angels do not disclose the additional money they made off Ohtani. ESPN reported the number was in “the low tens of millions of dollars.”
One thing seems certain: The amount of additional revenue a team projects from Ohtani will help define its threshold in the bidding. And likely push it higher. |
Ohtani contract predictions:
| Quote: | | Quote: | The predictions for Ohtani’s contract:
- $477 million from The Athletic’s Jim Bowden,
- $528 million from MLB Trade Rumors,
- $600 million from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman
— already sound massive. |
Now imagine if Ohtani were healthy.
Pitching and hitting, he produced a combined 9.4 fWAR in 2022 and 9.0 in ‘23. Fangraphs estimates 1 WAR to be worth about $8 million in free agency, but some analysts believe the number is closer to $9 million to $10 million. By the latter measure, Ohtani was worth between $81 and $94 million annually in those two seasons.
He would not have gotten that much if he was healthy. He almost certainly will not get it now that he is recovering from surgery. But the length of the deal and the dollar amount will be only two elements of his contract structure. Opt-outs almost certainly will come into play, too.
An ideal structure, from a club’s perspective, might be to give Ohtani a $25 million salary next season, a record for a DH, along with a conditional opt-out based on how many days he is active on the roster. If Ohtani opted out, the team then could void it by exercising a mammoth guarantee — say, $396 million over nine years, a record $44 million AAV. The team still would not be sure of his pitching future. But in a year, it likely would have a better idea.
The same structure then could carry over to 2025, when Ohtani presumably would be ready to pitch again. His salary that season could be say, $38 million. The trigger to void the opt-out would be larger, say, $416 million over eight years, a $52 million AAV. By adding incentives, the potential 10-year value could increase to more than $500 million.
Nice idea for a club. Balelo and Ohtani would never go for it.
They almost certainly will want far more of an upfront guarantee, as well as opt-outs starting once Ohtani has re-established himself as a pitcher, perhaps after his second or third year. The demand in the market should enable them to largely dictate the terms, and avoid settling for a structure that leaves Ohtani exposed to risk.
Here’s another, simpler way to look at what Ohtani might get. Start with a $450 million guarantee that would beat Trout’s record. Add $150 million in incentives to push the potential value to $600 million. First team to guarantee the incentives signs Ohtani.
How many teams would effectively be willing to gamble $150 million on Ohtani as a pitcher? Perhaps not many, if their heads of baseball operations alone were making the decision.
But ownerships also will be involved, and some almost certainly will see beyond Ohtani’s pure baseball value.
Just last winter, the Rangers signed an injury-prone Jacob deGrom for $185 million entering his age-35 season. All it takes is one. |
When will Ohtani sign?
| Quote: | An agreement at the winter meetings in Nashville the first week of December would be the ideal outcome for MLB, but not necessarily for Ohtani. He perhaps will be better off waiting for the signing of Japanese righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is expected to be posted for free agency as soon as Monday, triggering a 45-day window for teams to negotiate with him.
Losing out on the 25-year-old Yamamoto, who could command more than $200 million, might put certain teams on tilt, improving the landscape for Ohtani.
The meetings are two weeks away. The Thanksgiving holiday will interrupt baseball business. Teams will want to meet with him, gain an understanding of his priorities, gauge just how badly he wants to continue pitching, and for how long.
Ohtani has not spoken to the media in more than three months.
| Quote: | | “I think it’s going to move slower than people think,” an AL executive said. “There’s a lot to be answered.” |
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ChickenStu
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LakerLanny
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| Posted: Tue Nov 21, 2023 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Sounds like Ohtani has narrowed it down to the Cubs or Dodgers |
I like our chances then, Cubs are a midwestern version of the Angels.
If he really is about winning, you don't go there but I admit I am very slightly biased 
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Tue Nov 21, 2023 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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| lakersken80 wrote: | | If Dodgers were to give Ohtani close to a 600 million contract, they would have almost close to a billion tied up to 2 players...wow! |
I wonder if a shorter term contract with an outrageous AAV would get it done . Gives Shohei a chance to regain the two way form and then go for the long contract.
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Snipes
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| Posted: Tue Nov 21, 2023 8:12 pm Post subject: |
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| jonnybravo wrote: | | lakersken80 wrote: | | If Dodgers were to give Ohtani close to a 600 million contract, they would have almost close to a billion tied up to 2 players...wow! |
I wonder if a shorter term contract with an outrageous AAV would get it done . Gives Shohei a chance to regain the two way form and then go for the long contract. |
As suspected and it is yet to be a sure thing but it seems like the short-term deal will be unlikely.
I say this because it’s rare to see people guys leave guaranteed $ on the table but also because as of now the rumours are it’s between us and the Cubs. The only reason why I think the Cubs are even mentioned is because they’re offering the largest deal possible. We are going to have to get close to or equal in terms of $ and that means 8/500 at the very least in terms of years IMO.
If the rumours of cubs/dodgers as the top 2 are true (which I doubt I’m sure other teams will up their offers as the days go on) I’m more than happy with that because Cubs can’t compete with us in any other aspect except for $. And maybe perhaps a chance to hit in Wrigley..something I don’t think Ohtani cares too much about.
It’s all speculation at the end of the day. Who knows what’s actually going on, I think this is the rare scenario where you got a bunch of teams that have a chance to change their entire trajectory. You gotta think it’s chaos behind closed doors and Ohtani is entertaining it all. Or maybe he’s made up his mind and he’s not.
Another possibility is that he loves Trout so much (I don’t think this is necessarily the case) and wants to win with him so bad that he’s basically asking whichever team to sign him + trade for Trout. Maybe the Cubs can pull this off and are on board and this is what is setting them apart.
Maybe he hates LA. Maybe he wants his “own” team. We’ll never know until the end. |
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