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angrypuppy
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 12:15 pm    Post subject:

I don't see NE sold on Maye. The Pats are arguably the most QB-hungry team in the NFL, and yet they're fielding calls on what is the most impactful position in the league. If they think Maye is interchangeable with a later pick like Nix or Penix, it is obvious they're lukewarm on Maye's prospects.

That isn't to say that they will trade out of pick #3, but it does send a signal.

In terms of reducing risk, yes taking two or three players instead of a single player significantly reduces risk. It's diversification in the purest form, which is the bedrock of the insurance industry and investment portfolio management.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 12:37 pm    Post subject:

angrypuppy wrote:
I don't see NE sold on Maye. The Pats are arguably the most QB-hungry team in the NFL, and yet they're fielding calls on what is the most impactful position in the league. If they think Maye is interchangeable with a later pick like Nix or Penix, it is obvious they're lukewarm on Maye's prospects.

That isn't to say that they will trade out of pick #3, but it does send a signal.

In terms of reducing risk, yes taking two or three players instead of a single player significantly reduces risk. It's diversification in the purest form, which is the bedrock of the insurance industry and investment portfolio management.


They are trying to get MIN to cough up something huge, because Maye is their preferred option. They will field calls for the entirety of the time that they are on the clock, hoping for an offer they simply can't refuse. But otherwise, if you don't have a QB in the NFL, you basically are SOL. Sure, you might make a #6 or #7 seed wild card appearance, but so what? If your team has no ceiling, it's pointless. Maye would be the #1 pick in most years where teams need QB's. Does he have flaws? Of course. Could he bust? Totally. But that's the game. You have to have a franchise QB, especially in the AFC. It's a gauntlet. You need someone with upside. You may not have access to a #1 pick-type of QB for 10 years, 20 years, who knows. So I don't think they trade out of the spot unless they get blown away with an offer. And hey, maybe Minnesota loves Maye so much (there are connections on their coaching staff with McCown) that they offer something like #11, #23, a '25 1st, and a '26 2nd or something. OK, maybe the Pats can't say no to that.

We'll see!
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 4:15 pm    Post subject:

This was the final mock that I submitted in the contests I'm in, without commentary or trade details, just picks. This is one of my favorite days of the year!

1. CHI Caleb Williams
2. WAS Jayden Daniels
3. NE Drake Maye
4. ARI Marvin Harrison Jr.
5. MIN JJ McCarthy
6. NYG Rome Odunze
7. TEN Joe Alt
8. LAR Malik Nabers
9. CHI Byron Murphy
10. NYJ Brock Bowers
11. LAC JC Latham
12. PHI Taliese Fuaga
13. LV Michael Penix Jr.
14. NO Olu Fashanu
15. IND Quinyon Mitchell
16. SEA Dallas Turner
17. JAX Terrion Arnold
18. CIN Amarius Mims
19. ATL Laiatu Latu
20. PIT Graham Barton
21. MIA Xavier Worthy
22. DEN Jared Verse
23. LAC Kool-Aid McKinstry
24. DAL Troy Fautanu
25. GB Cooper DeJean
26. TB Chop Robinson
27. ARI Jordan Morgan
28. BUF Brian Thomas Jr.
29. DET Johnny Newton
30. BAL Tyler Guyton
31. SF Darius Robinson
32. KC Kingsley Suamataia
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 4:28 pm    Post subject:

Jj McCarthy hate is funny. That means he slides and lands on raiders and at that point I have no idea what to think.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 5:11 pm    Post subject:

Falcons grab Michael Penix Jr with the #8 pick.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 5:22 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
Falcons grab Michael Penix Jr with the #8 pick.


I’d understand this if they didn’t just pay Kirk for the next 4 years.

5 x QBs in the top 10 and all offensive players so far, crazy.

Was hoping Chargers would get to trade down and pick up both Vikings firsts, but oh well, think Alt is a good player.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 5:22 pm    Post subject:

JJ McCarthy to the Vikings.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 5:32 pm    Post subject:

Penix at 8 to the Falcons is maybe the single strangest pick I've ever seen, and I like Penix more than most. It just makes no sense at all from a process standpoint. Unless there's something really wrong with Cousins, like he re-tore his Achilles or something, you've given him enough money to where Penix shouldn't play for at least 2 years. At that point, he will be 26 or 27.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 5:48 pm    Post subject:

Daniel Jeremiah saying on NFL broadcast that apparently Cousins had no idea the Falcons were gonna draft Penix. WTF
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 6:13 pm    Post subject:

Moses wrote:
Daniel Jeremiah saying on NFL broadcast that apparently Cousins had no idea the Falcons were gonna draft Penix. WTF


Yep, I just saw a tweet that reported that he's shocked and disappointed. I just truly don't understand what they are thinking here. Clearly, that means he's not hurt or didn't re-injure the Achilles or something. In football you can immediately trade a player after they sign a contract, but not only does he have a no-trade clause, but they would still be on the hook for huge dead cap hits the next 2 years even if they trade him. I don't get what the plan is here.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 6:17 pm    Post subject:

I've been having a hard time with my mock; finally got a team-player match at 18 with Mims to the Bengals.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 6:26 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Moses wrote:
Daniel Jeremiah saying on NFL broadcast that apparently Cousins had no idea the Falcons were gonna draft Penix. WTF


Yep, I just saw a tweet that reported that he's shocked and disappointed. I just truly don't understand what they are thinking here. Clearly, that means he's not hurt or didn't re-injure the Achilles or something. In football you can immediately trade a player after they sign a contract, but not only does he have a no-trade clause, but they would still be on the hook for huge dead cap hits the next 2 years even if they trade him. I don't get what the plan is here.


Weird situation for ATL. By the time that Kirk deal is up, Penix will be 28 years old, it kinda seems like the Falcons signed Kirk to a 4 year deal because that’s what it took to get him, but they maybe don’t believe he will play / be at a decent level for those 4 years.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 6:36 pm    Post subject:

Moses wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Moses wrote:
Daniel Jeremiah saying on NFL broadcast that apparently Cousins had no idea the Falcons were gonna draft Penix. WTF


Yep, I just saw a tweet that reported that he's shocked and disappointed. I just truly don't understand what they are thinking here. Clearly, that means he's not hurt or didn't re-injure the Achilles or something. In football you can immediately trade a player after they sign a contract, but not only does he have a no-trade clause, but they would still be on the hook for huge dead cap hits the next 2 years even if they trade him. I don't get what the plan is here.


Weird situation for ATL. By the time that Kirk deal is up, Penix will be 28 years old, it kinda seems like the Falcons signed Kirk to a 4 year deal because that’s what it took to get him, but they maybe don’t believe he will play / be at a decent level for those 4 years.


You have to wonder if he regrets signing there already. Yeah, he's getting $100MM guaranteed, but he probably could have at least approached that amount elsewhere, and he probably wanted a team to go all-in with immediate help. I wonder if he wishes he had just stayed in Minnesota on their reported 1-year offer. Again, he's well-compensated and the team has the right to do what it wants, but he has every right to be pissed.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 6:43 pm    Post subject:

This draft was boring and too predictable until the Falcons pick. That definitely got my attention.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 1:17 am    Post subject:

A number of good players still available tonight, If Chargers ended up with one of these I’d be cool with it:

WR Ladd McConkey, Georgia
CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
DT Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois
WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 1:53 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Penix at 8 to the Falcons is maybe the single strangest pick I've ever seen, and I like Penix more than most. It just makes no sense at all from a process standpoint. Unless there's something really wrong with Cousins, like he re-tore his Achilles or something, you've given him enough money to where Penix shouldn't play for at least 2 years. At that point, he will be 26 or 27.


It makes no sense at all for Atlanta and is a bad break for Penix. Just a truly bizarre choice. Also, Denver reached hard taking Bo Nix at 12, he is a game manager at best in my opinion.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:03 am    Post subject:

Also, I love what Chicago did in the first round. Been s long time since the Bears had any excitement around the team but they definitely do now.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:07 am    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
JJ McCarthy to the Vikings.


What a great situation for him, all kinds of weapons on offense with a coach who puts QBs in positions to succeed.

Compared to say what Drake Maye has Ari and him in New England where he will be pulling the sled uphill
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 6:01 am    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Penix at 8 to the Falcons is maybe the single strangest pick I've ever seen, and I like Penix more than most. It just makes no sense at all from a process standpoint. Unless there's something really wrong with Cousins, like he re-tore his Achilles or something, you've given him enough money to where Penix shouldn't play for at least 2 years. At that point, he will be 26 or 27.


It makes no sense at all for Atlanta and is a bad break for Penix. Just a truly bizarre choice. Also, Denver reached hard taking Bo Nix at 12, he is a game manager at best in my opinion.



Exactly right on Nix, he's a game manager who doesn't have the arm to threaten at the third level. Of all the QB prospects, he's the one who threw most often to receivers behind the LOS which places a firm asterisk on his college stats. I thought he'd still make it to the first round, albeit more towards the end. Sean Payton did a good job in the last two years of Drew Brees' career, when Brees had even less arm than Nix, but then NO had much better talent surrounding the QB than Denver.

I really liked Penix and couldn't understand why the mocks had him taken after Nix. Penix has incredible arm talent, the ball just explodes after that quick release. But he has the worst pocket presence of all the QBs in the draft class, by far, and he needs to calm his mind down when he sees pressure. The more I think about it, that might be one of the reasons he doesn't fare as well throwing between the numbers, he might be unraveling under pressure when his outside receivers are well-covered. It's just a theory, but if anyone had time to look at his games I'd like to see if that's a tight correlation.

BUT AS THE ATL PICK?!? WHAT WERE THEY THINKING???

OK, I'll attempt to explain by looking past the obvious:

Penix has both incredible talent and terrible flaws, he won't be ready to start his first two seasons. Yes, I think the flaws are that deep. Kirk Cousins has a four-year contract that should be interpreted as a three-year contract with an option. That means Penix can be refined during those two years and brought up to NFL speed during garbage time during the second season, and ready to challenge Cousins during Year 3. Bear in mind that next season's QB draft class looks very weak, and with Cousins at the helm the Dirty Birds are more likely than not to beat Tampa Bay for the divisional crown, or at worst not be in position the next two years to draft a quality QB draft prospect.

The upshot is that Atlanta would not have a QB prospect ready to start until a year or two after Cousins transforms into a Manning-like rotting corpse.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 9:42 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Moses wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Moses wrote:
Daniel Jeremiah saying on NFL broadcast that apparently Cousins had no idea the Falcons were gonna draft Penix. WTF


Yep, I just saw a tweet that reported that he's shocked and disappointed. I just truly don't understand what they are thinking here. Clearly, that means he's not hurt or didn't re-injure the Achilles or something. In football you can immediately trade a player after they sign a contract, but not only does he have a no-trade clause, but they would still be on the hook for huge dead cap hits the next 2 years even if they trade him. I don't get what the plan is here.


Weird situation for ATL. By the time that Kirk deal is up, Penix will be 28 years old, it kinda seems like the Falcons signed Kirk to a 4 year deal because that’s what it took to get him, but they maybe don’t believe he will play / be at a decent level for those 4 years.


You have to wonder if he regrets signing there already. Yeah, he's getting $100MM guaranteed, but he probably could have at least approached that amount elsewhere, and he probably wanted a team to go all-in with immediate help. I wonder if he wishes he had just stayed in Minnesota on their reported 1-year offer. Again, he's well-compensated and the team has the right to do what it wants, but he has every right to be pissed.


And if I am Penix, I'm pissed too. Imagine hearing the GM for your new NFL state that their ideal plan is for you to sit out for the first "four or five years" of you career.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 10:51 am    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:
Also, I love what Chicago did in the first round. Been s long time since the Bears had any excitement around the team but they definitely do now.


Meanwhile, Justin Fields is asking where this was when he was there.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 11:55 am    Post subject:

DaMuleRules wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Moses wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Moses wrote:
Daniel Jeremiah saying on NFL broadcast that apparently Cousins had no idea the Falcons were gonna draft Penix. WTF


Yep, I just saw a tweet that reported that he's shocked and disappointed. I just truly don't understand what they are thinking here. Clearly, that means he's not hurt or didn't re-injure the Achilles or something. In football you can immediately trade a player after they sign a contract, but not only does he have a no-trade clause, but they would still be on the hook for huge dead cap hits the next 2 years even if they trade him. I don't get what the plan is here.


Weird situation for ATL. By the time that Kirk deal is up, Penix will be 28 years old, it kinda seems like the Falcons signed Kirk to a 4 year deal because that’s what it took to get him, but they maybe don’t believe he will play / be at a decent level for those 4 years.


You have to wonder if he regrets signing there already. Yeah, he's getting $100MM guaranteed, but he probably could have at least approached that amount elsewhere, and he probably wanted a team to go all-in with immediate help. I wonder if he wishes he had just stayed in Minnesota on their reported 1-year offer. Again, he's well-compensated and the team has the right to do what it wants, but he has every right to be pissed.


And if I am Penix, I'm pissed too. Imagine hearing the GM for your new NFL state that their ideal plan is for you to sit out for the first "four or five years" of you career.


This is a good point and I agree with this too. It would have made more sense for them to take a younger QB (McCarthy) who would be the age that Penix is now when they needed him to replace Cousins. Instead, their "plan" is to sit a QB who is about to be 24 for 2-3 years? Really? This is so much worse than when Green Bay drafted Love, who was 22 at the time and, of course, that wasn't a top 10 pick. You sign a win-now older QB in Cousins and you use a top 10 pick in a loaded class on a developmental QB? Even if they want to move on from Cousins after 2 years and let Penix start in year 3, it's still a $25MM dead cap hit on Cousins. It's just horrifically bad process from GM Terry Fontenot. I don't care how good you think Penix is, when you commit to Cousins like that, it shouldn't have even entered their minds to go this route. You get a QB you think you can win with, now use the #8 pick to your immediate advantage. And with the way the high-impact defenders lasted into the teens, they could have still traded down at #8 and still come away with one of Latu/Turner/Murphy/Verse. And we know that the Raiders tried to trade into the top 10 for Penix so I'm guessing that they probably called the Falcons for him. The Raiders had to be shocked beyond belief that the Falcons took him!
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 12:06 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
This is a good point and I agree with this too. It would have made more sense for them to take a younger QB (McCarthy) who would be the age that Penix is now when they needed him to replace Cousins. Instead, their "plan" is to sit a QB who is about to be 24 for 2-3 years? Really? This is so much worse than when Green Bay drafted Love, who was 22 at the time and, of course, that wasn't a top 10 pick. You sign a win-now older QB in Cousins and you use a top 10 pick in a loaded class on a developmental QB? Even if they want to move on from Cousins after 2 years and let Penix start in year 3, it's still a $25MM dead cap hit on Cousins. It's just horrifically bad process from GM Terry Fontenot. I don't care how good you think Penix is, when you commit to Cousins like that, it shouldn't have even entered their minds to go this route. You get a QB you think you can win with, now use the #8 pick to your immediate advantage. And with the way the high-impact defenders lasted into the teens, they could have still traded down at #8 and still come away with one of Latu/Turner/Murphy/Verse. And we know that the Raiders tried to trade into the top 10 for Penix so I'm guessing that they probably called the Falcons for him. The Raiders had to be shocked beyond belief that the Falcons took him!


Reports now are 3 teams tried to trade into the top 10 to get him. I'm guessing all 3 called Atlanta so that probably got them to thinking about drafting Penix.

Quote:
The Falcons weren't the only team highly interested in Penix.

According to a report, the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders all attempted to trade into the top 10 for the former Washington quarterback.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 1:23 pm    Post subject:

I can see why teams would want to trade up for Penix, for sure. I always thought he might go higher than projected, because if it all goes right for him he could be a really good player.

If a number of the teams from 6-12 went for him, I'd be saying well done. If Atlanta had somehow not got Kirk or got him on a 1/2 year deal, then cool.

But 100m guaranteed over 4 years to Kirk, then this. It defies logic.

They could've even took Odunze if they weren't gonna go defense, that young core around Kirk would've been fun.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:57 pm    Post subject:

Moses wrote:
I can see why teams would want to trade up for Penix, for sure. I always thought he might go higher than projected, because if it all goes right for him he could be a really good player.

If a number of the teams from 6-12 went for him, I'd be saying well done. If Atlanta had somehow not got Kirk or got him on a 1/2 year deal, then cool.

But 100m guaranteed over 4 years to Kirk, then this. It defies logic.

They could've even took Odunze if they weren't gonna go defense, that young core around Kirk would've been fun.


Yep, you just can't do it. Just horrible process. You just can't take a QB there. I would have understood Odunze. Just load up the field with offensive skill talent. That's why I love it for the Bears, plus Allen's on an expiring deal so it doesn't force them into doing something like overpaying for him.
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