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ChickenStu
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Joined: 25 Apr 2015
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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 Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 3:43 pm Post subject: |
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The Cardinals are changing course and will be sellers for any of their useful vets, it appears. Their outstanding closer, Ryan Helsley, is almost certainly going to be moved. You'd have to assume that Nolan Arenado will waive his no-trade clause because he won't want to be part of another rebuild, which is what was happening in Colorado before he got dealt, but as expensive as he is, the Cards may have to eat some money there to trade him. Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde could go, with Fedde more likely because he's not expensive. (Gray's deal was backloaded so he's quite expensive, so maybe the Cards would have to eat some money to facilitate a deal there.) Catcher Willson Contreras is another one who could go, with outfielder Lars Nootbaar a lesser possibility, since he's still just 27 and still has 3 years of team control left.
I'm not sure any of these names are matches for us, though. Doesn't seem like Friedman's style to trade top prospects for any reliever, so I think that rules out Helsley or someone like Devin Williams. (Though it's worth noting that maybe Williams could be had for a non-huge return, as he only has 1 year of team control left.) I think the Arenado ship has sailed, given his declining performance and exorbitant price tag, and at least Muncy is pretty cheap. Gray is too expensive, and Fedde is unlikely to be that much better than someone like Gonsolin in the regular season. Obviously, we're committed to Smith at catcher, as well. |
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jonnybravo
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Joined: 21 Sep 2007
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| Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:23 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks to the mod that updated the title! "World Champion" looks much, much better.
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Snipes
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Joined: 28 Feb 2005
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| Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:27 pm Post subject: |
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| 2025? You mean the year we went b2b??? |
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LakerLanny
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Joined: 24 Oct 2001
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| Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 5:18 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: |
He'll still steal some bases, but never again will he even approach 40, and maybe not even 30. |
The slides at high speed are risky for injury, I am surprised guys don't get hurt more when sliding.
He is too valuable to need to send him all the time, but it would be nice to keep his wheels oiled for when you really need the base.
And how worried do I need to be about his shoulder this entire off-season? 
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ExPatLkrFan
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Joined: 29 Jul 2004
Posts: 4100
Location: Mukdahan, Thailand
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| Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 5:53 pm Post subject: |
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| 1995Lakers wrote: | | JerryWest_44 wrote: | | Any updates on Ohtani’s labrum surgery ? |
The typical surgery is successful and that he will be ready by spring training mumbo jumbo |
Has there ever been a sports surgery that was immediately reported as unsuccessful? I can't think of one. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 18781
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| Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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| ExPatLkrFan wrote: | | 1995Lakers wrote: | | JerryWest_44 wrote: | | Any updates on Ohtani’s labrum surgery ? |
The typical surgery is successful and that he will be ready by spring training mumbo jumbo |
Has there ever been a sports surgery that was immediately reported as unsuccessful? I can't think of one. |
Yeah, I've always thought the same when they report that the surgery was a successful one. |
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angrypuppy
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Joined: 13 Apr 2001
Posts: 33214
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| Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | ExPatLkrFan wrote: | | 1995Lakers wrote: | | JerryWest_44 wrote: | | Any updates on Ohtani’s labrum surgery ? |
The typical surgery is successful and that he will be ready by spring training mumbo jumbo |
Has there ever been a sports surgery that was immediately reported as unsuccessful? I can't think of one. |
Yeah, I've always thought the same when they report that the surgery was a successful one. |
Yep, even when the surgery results in the player retiring from a sport, it is termed as being successful. I guess unsuccessful is when the surgeon is forced to amputate a limb, or the patient ends up buried at Forest Lawn. |
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Moses
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Joined: 23 Aug 2008
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Location: London
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:00 am Post subject: |
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Will be very interesting to see whether the Dodgers are big spenders again this off season. Roki could be had for a bargain price, but do they go out and get one of the big name starters on the market?
Could Flaherty coming back be an option, or do they look elsewhere to someone they think might be better?
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 8:02 am Post subject: |
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| Moses wrote: | | Will be very interesting to see whether the Dodgers are big spenders again this off season. |
I'd say no. Here's our recent history:
Man, just looking up what our 2024 tax bill is going to be (estimated), wow.
Here's a look at our history under this ownership group:
| Quote: | Year ...... CBT .... CBT (payroll) ..... Tax (payments)
2013 ..... $178M ..... $243M ..... ..... $11.4M
2014 ..... $189M ..... $278M ..... ..... $26.6M
2015 ..... $189M ..... $298M ..... ..... $44M
2016 ..... $189M ..... $253M ..... ..... $31.8M
2017 ..... $195M ..... $254M ..... ..... $36.2M
2018 ..... $197M ..... $195M ..... ..... $0
2019 ..... $206M ..... $205M ..... ..... $0
2020 ..... $208M ..... $205M ..... ..... $0
2021 ..... $210M ..... $286M ..... ..... $32.6M
2022 ..... $230M ..... $293M ..... ..... $32.4M
2023 ..... $233M ..... $268M ..... ..... $19.4M
2024 ..... $237M ..... $340M ..... ..... $88.5M (estimate)
2024 ..... $241M ..... $240M ..... .....
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Notes:
- 2020 was the covid year and so no one was forced to pay any taxes.
- We might be hit with an $88M tax bill this year, wow!
- Right now, Spotrac calculates our current 2025 CBT payroll at $240M. Maybe that's accurate as we've lost 9 free agents from last year's payroll:
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/_/year/2025/sort/tax_total
| Quote: | 1) Buehler
2) Kershaw
3) Teo
4) Hudson
5) Kike
6) Treinen
7) Kiermaier
8) Flaherty
9) Joe Kelly |
- I don't know if we'll add another $100M to the payroll this year. That's a HUGE tax bill.
- Kershaw's coming back, at around $15-20M is my guess (salary + incentives).
- Kike probably back
- Hopefully Treinen, Buehler and Teo comes back.
- Add these 5 up and it'll probably take us over $310M CBT? Yeah, I'm going to guess that's close to our limit for this year.
- Yeah, I'm going to say there's no chance we're in on Soto. Can't have 2 guys (Soto and Ohtani) taking up $100M in CBT payroll per year. That's just luxury tax hell for the next 9 years. |
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aprevo15
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Joined: 08 Jun 2010
Posts: 7786
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 8:49 am Post subject: |
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If we're not intending on signing Soto, I wish the front office just comes out and says we were never interested just to say FU. 
On a serious note, I'll be happy if we bring Teo back and sign Sasaki. |
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LarryCoon
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Joined: 11 Aug 2002
Posts: 11513
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 8:50 am Post subject: |
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| Moses wrote: | Will be very interesting to see whether the Dodgers are big spenders again this off season. Roki could be had for a bargain price, but do they go out and get one of the big name starters on the market?
Could Flaherty coming back be an option, or do they look elsewhere to someone they think might be better? |
I think 10 starters is the right number. A six-man rotation, plus four more for spare parts. |
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DrWolf
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Joined: 27 Jun 2012
Posts: 618
Location: At the basketball court next to yours, CA
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:43 am Post subject: |
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| JerryWest_44 wrote: | | Any updates on Ohtani’s labrum surgery ? |
Per Fabian Ardays, it was done yesterday and he is expected to be ready by spring training.
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 18781
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
The Dodgers plan to have Mookie Betts return to the infield in 2025
Nov 6, 2024 |
| Quote: | Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
Brandon Gomes said the assumption right now is Mookie Betts will move back to the infield in 2025, where needed at second or shortstop. #Dodgers
Nov 6, 2024 |
Lux is Keenan Thompson right now:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqfVE-fykk&pp=ygUWd2FzaGluZ3RvbidzIGRyZWFtIHNubA%3D%3D
“Sir, in this new infield, what plans are there for men such as I?”
………./………
Like ChickenStu predicted, this means:
- Pages will be given an outfield spot to start the season
- Edman is probably our CF
- Good chance Lux gets traded
I’d also like to add:
- Betts might go back to SS n give it another go
- They might give Lux another crack at SS
Last edited by LongBeachPoly on Wed Nov 06, 2024 2:00 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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ChickenStu
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Joined: 25 Apr 2015
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Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:56 pm Post subject: |
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^
This was my expectation with Betts for sure. |
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jonnybravo
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Joined: 21 Sep 2007
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 2:16 pm Post subject: |
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| aprevo15 wrote: | If we're not intending on signing Soto, I wish the front office just comes out and says we were never interested just to say FU.
On a serious note, I'll be happy if we bring Teo back and sign Sasaki. |
My gut tells me Soto is someone that isn't even mentioned in the front office. I highly doubt they're going to grab another $500M+/10+year a year guy.
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aprevo15
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 3:33 pm Post subject: |
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| jonnybravo wrote: | | aprevo15 wrote: | If we're not intending on signing Soto, I wish the front office just comes out and says we were never interested just to say FU.
On a serious note, I'll be happy if we bring Teo back and sign Sasaki. |
My gut tells me Soto is someone that isn't even mentioned in the front office. I highly doubt they're going to grab another $500M+/10+year a year guy. |
Yeah my thoughts exactly. Can't stand it when players or their agents use the Dodgers name (same with Lakers) to get themselves in the front page of sports talk. |
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Steve007
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Joined: 21 Jul 2006
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 3:41 pm Post subject: |
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| ^I don’t mind if they use the Dodgers name to increase his value. It will be a team like the Mets or Yankees that will end up paying the price. |
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aprevo15
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Steve007 wrote: | | ^I don’t mind if they use the Dodgers name to increase his value. It will be a team like the Mets or Yankees that will end up paying the price. |
Since you put it that way, I guess it's okay. Didn't think about that. Dodgers should bluff. Like in an auction irem you don't intend to purchase but bid just to drive up the price. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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^
It’d be funny if Soto is like, “deal, I accept!”
And Dodgers r like, “whoa, it’s a prank bro, it’s a prank. See, camera’s right there…” |
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aprevo15
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:17 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | ^
It’d be funny if Soto is like, “deal, I accept!”
And Dodgers r like, “whoa, it’s a prank bro, it’s a prank. See, camera’s right there…” |
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aprevo15
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:20 pm Post subject: |
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| All the podcasters are doubling down on Sasaki coming to MLB. According to them it's between Dodgers and Padres. So we have more money give in the international pool. Who decides which team gets him? Sasaki or his current team in Japan? |
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LakerLanny
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:49 pm Post subject: |
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| jonnybravo wrote: | | aprevo15 wrote: | If we're not intending on signing Soto, I wish the front office just comes out and says we were never interested just to say FU.
On a serious note, I'll be happy if we bring Teo back and sign Sasaki. |
My gut tells me Soto is someone that isn't even mentioned in the front office. I highly doubt they're going to grab another $500M+/10+year a year guy. |
He is a great player, has a very good eye at the plate but I don't like his antics as far as staring down the pitchers and such on every at bat. To me it is what used to be called "bush league" where you are trying to show someone up which baseball players in the past used to hate.
I say not only don't sign him, but drill him in the ribs with a fastball in his first at bat against next season. Cheers!
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Cutheon
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Joined: 10 Jul 2009
Posts: 13007
Location: Bay Area
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:50 pm Post subject: |
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| aprevo15 wrote: | | All the podcasters are doubling down on Sasaki coming to MLB. According to them it's between Dodgers and Padres. So we have more money give in the international pool. Who decides which team gets him? Sasaki or his current team in Japan? |
Sasaki. And every team has to give him the same contract. So the question is: does he want to play and win with with Darvish, Manny, and Tatis? Or does he want to play and win with Sho, Yoshi, Mook, and Freddie?
Last edited by Cutheon on Wed Nov 06, 2024 8:12 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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waterman40
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Posts: 6371
Location: Central Coast
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Cutheon wrote: | | aprevo15 wrote: | | All the podcasters are doubling down on Sasaki coming to MLB. According to them it's between Dodgers and Padres. So we have more money give in the international pool. Who decides which team gets him? Sasaki or his current team in Japan? |
Sasaki. And every team has to give him the same contract. So the question is: does he want to play and with with Darvish, Manny, and Tatis? Or does he want to play and win with Sho, Yoshi, Mook, and Freddie? |
And our half Japanese manager Roberts ...
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Cutheon
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Joined: 10 Jul 2009
Posts: 13007
Location: Bay Area
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| Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| waterman40 wrote: | | Cutheon wrote: | | aprevo15 wrote: | | All the podcasters are doubling down on Sasaki coming to MLB. According to them it's between Dodgers and Padres. So we have more money give in the international pool. Who decides which team gets him? Sasaki or his current team in Japan? |
Sasaki. And every team has to give him the same contract. So the question is: does he want to play and with with Darvish, Manny, and Tatis? Or does he want to play and win with Sho, Yoshi, Mook, and Freddie? |
And our half Japanese manager Roberts ... |
One more thing to note: Sasaki's velo has dropped and there's concern he is a ticking time bomb injury wise. Dodgers are absolutely the organization you want to be in as an injured pitcher. Clearly not something that scares us off, clearly we are capable of having guys find it post-surgery, and because we are focused on keeping Japan as the Dodgers market, we are far more likely than other teams to risk his elbow blowing out as his signing helps the Dodgers penetrate the market even deeper |
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