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Mike@LG Moderator
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Joined: 10 Apr 2001 Posts: 65135 Location: Orange County, CA
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Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 8:12 pm Post subject: SPL 2006 Scouting Reports |
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Player Evaluation Sheet
Jordan Farmar
NBA Comparison
Upside: Steve Nash (Think how long it took Nash to develop.)
Average: Luke Ridnour/Delonte West (Less quicks and jumper, more vert.)
Downside: 6'2" Marko Jaric
Size:
1. Height – 6'-3/4" w/o shoes, 6'2" w/shoes
2. Wingspan – 6'3"
3. Weight - 171
4. Body Fat – 4.4%
Athleticism:
1. Lateral movement – Good. Tested at 11.07 seconds, a smidge slow for a good defensive PG. Doesn't really show on man-defense situations, but stands out when he positions himself to deny passing lanes and block angles. When he wants, can shutdown penetration against seemingly quicker PGs.
2. Initial quickness - Good. Uses a combination of the crossover along with quickness to create separation. Hasn't really been tested against a quality athletic defender. Doesn't completely go all the way to the basket from penetration, but can create high percentage shots from within 5'.
3. Top speed – Very good. Tested at 3.17 seconds for the 3/4 sprint.
4. Vertical leap – Excellent. Tested at 42". Shows when he's contesting shots and going for rebounds. Doesn't show when he's trying to finish a play. His leaping ability drops dramatically when he's got the basketball with him.
5. Reflexes – Quick. Gets into passing lanes well. Denies lanes well. Deflects well.
6. Strength – Tested with 11 bench presses, but doesn't have much of a base. A better base would allow him to be more effective protecting the dribble against bigger guards.
7. Conditioning – Never looked winded
8. Footwork – Very good. Able to change directions well. Utilizes the jumpstop well. Never fades away on jumpshots. His feet are under him all the time.
9. Balance – Very good. Didn’t get pushed on penetration.
Skill Level:
1. Offense
• Perimeter Play
• Dribble penetration – Quick. Utilizes ball-handling and a quick first step to create separation. Effective in creating shots or plays for tohers.
• Post play – N/A
• Off-the-ball – Good footwork off the ball. Doesn't dominate the basketball at all. Maintains spacing very well while creating a passing angle to bail out his teammate along the perimeter.
• Short game (0’-7’) – Finishes well. Doesn't dunk. Layups. Has an effective 5' tear drop with high arc.
• Midrange game (8’-18’) - Has shown the ability to hit from midrange off the dribble.
• Long range (19’-23'9" or longer) – Very slight mechanics issues when shooting from range which leads to some inconsistency. Does a great job of setting a base, but doesn't always create great lift into the shot.
2. Defense
• Man to man defense
Position – Average. Can get blown past by smaller PGs. Doesn't dictate where the PG should go effectively. Can fight screans off of pick and roll situations, when he wants to. Does a solid job cutting off angles.
Anticipation – Excellent. Quick hands allow him to steal the ball off the dribble or when exposed. Great job of ball-denial.
• Off-the-ball defense
Position – Solid. Didn’t get beat by backdoor cuts. Aware of his man and the location of the basketball relative to his position. Sometimes lapses. Reads lanes well.
Anticipation – Excellent. His timing is great.
• Team defense
Position - Excellent. Helps out effectively and always has a hand on the ball.
Anticipation – Excellent. Contests shooters very well, recovers very well, and knows when to apply added pressure to the opponent.
Rebounding
1. Offensive
• Box-out – N/A
• Hustle – N/A
• Energy level – N/A
• Position – N/A
2. Defensive
• Box-out – Doesn’t box out.
• Hustle – Hustles well after loose balls. Utlizes vertical leaping to compensate for the lack of box-out.
• Energy level – Good energy shown going after the basketball.
• Position – Slight nose for the ball. Weaves around opponents to get rebounds. Finds himself in traffic at times and contests well to acquire defensive rebounds.
Intangibles
• Leadership - Exerts a high amount of poise and controls tempo well. Does a great job of distribution among teammates and running the offense.
• Attitude - Good. Doesn't get too down on himself. Expects more of himself.
• Work Ethic - N/A, though 4.4% body fat and high basketball IQ came from somewhere.
• Competitiveness - Very competitive. Tends to be more assertive when running the offense doesn't work.
• Unselfishness - Very unselfish. Makes the right decision between taking high percentage shots and creating them.
• Toughness - Tends to mix it in with bigmen for rebounds. Doesn't seem to mind a little contact. Can be bothered by bigger SGs defensively, and facing bigger opponents off the dribble.
• Mental - N/A
• Physical - A tad slight of frame, even at 6'2". Doesn't really out mind-blowing quickness that allows him to compensate for strength (like Iverson, TJ Ford, Felton, etc.) Can be bothered by some contact along the perimeter.
Summary:
Farmar demonstrates great PG skills and intangibles at a high level considering his young age. He does a great job of controlling tempo, knowing when to run the offense, when to push in transition at high speed, and semi-transition. He does an excellent job of finding the open man in static situations as well as through dribble-penetration. A consumate triple threat guard who's weakness is perimeter shooting, which is average at best. With some better mechanics and added strength, could really excel under the triangle offense while implimenting the transition phase within the triangle.
Defensively, I expect him to just be average. His IQ and lateral quickness are very good, but the lack of wingspan and initial footspeed on man-D won't allow him to be a stopper or container at the NBA level. He continually goes behind screens and doesn't fight them, nor does he have the wingspan to makeup for any deficiencies on man-defense. When he wants to commit, the ability is there. Over 30-40 minutes a game to stop penetration and fight screens is a bit much to ask. More strength would really help in this department. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
https://lakersdraft.substack.com/
I am not an economic advisor nor do I advise economic strategies or plans.
Last edited by Mike@LG on Tue Jul 11, 2006 11:26 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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DzLaker Star Player
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Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:11 pm Post subject: |
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how is his athleticism compared to Nash?
who could he be compared to on D?
it sounds like if he gets stronger and improves his long-range jumper he could be a star. |
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Mike@LG Moderator
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Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 9:17 pm Post subject: |
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He's actually a tad quicker and far more explosve leaper than Nash, but doesn't have that clean ball-handling, the IQ to keep a guy at his hip, the pure, refined PG skills.
Defensive comparison? Hm. The less quick, nowhere near as strong, average wingspan of Jason Kidd. Don't expect Farmar on the All Defensive Teams like Kidd did. Kidd was very fortunate to have elite size and quickness at the PG position to maximize his hoop IQ. Farmar doesn't have that elite size and quickness. Team defense was better than man defense. Similar reactions to double teams. Similar reactions to deflections and denial of passing lanes. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
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MntnLaker Sixth Man
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Posted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 9:11 am Post subject: |
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Its amazing to see what a great coach like Howland adds to a player:
The team defensive awareness is in large part due to Howlands training, JF is much better at it than he was his frosh year coming in.
Ditto the jump stop, Howland works with all the guards on that move.
Though JF may not have been able to show all his skills in the UCLA offense, working with Howland for two years really helped him.
Another year in the weight room where he can go harder now that he is healthy should improve the strength issues. You may not be able to get quicker at 19 but you can get a lot stronger with some dedication. And he already added a lot of strength from his F year. If you compare his tournament game against Texas tech last year vs. this year's games you'll see the difference in strength. I don't think work ethic will be a problem.
Given Mike's usual critical reviews , this review is high praise. |
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wormz1012 Star Player
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Posted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 11:21 am Post subject: |
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Mike.....
I thought your assessments are a bit on the good end.
On a good day, Farmar can look like a poor man's Jason Kidd.
On a bad day, he might look worse than Rick Brunson.
Hope as he gains more experience, he can learn how to FULLY utilize his skills. But looking on the bright side, this kid does play smart and composed for his age.
If he could ever develop a great spot up jumper, his size and athlectism are comparable to Kevin Johnson. _________________ This game is in the refrigrator! Door's closed, light's out, egg's cooling, butter's getting hard and the jellllloooo is jiggling. - You'll be greatly missed, Chick. |
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Kareem of the Crop Starting Rotation
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Posted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 12:41 pm Post subject: |
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the think i like the most is his court savy. He really gives off a sense of control. _________________ Romans 1:16 |
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Mike@LG Moderator
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Posted: Tue Jul 11, 2006 2:54 pm Post subject: |
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Quote: |
On a good day, Farmar can look like a poor man's Jason Kidd.
On a bad day, he might look worse than Rick Brunson.
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I think those expectations are both too high and too low. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
https://lakersdraft.substack.com/
I am not an economic advisor nor do I advise economic strategies or plans. |
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pokoy Moderator
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:24 am Post subject: |
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Excellent, I was waiting for these.
So give it a few years before he can actually play meaningful minutes in the NBA, after he gains strength?
Think he'd ever be able to be a quality starter? Sounds like his speed and strength are the main things holding him back, and strength can be improved. |
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Mike@LG Moderator
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:36 am Post subject: |
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I was telling emplay the other day... within 1-2 years.
Speed isn't holding back. Strength and perimeter shooting. Average at best. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
https://lakersdraft.substack.com/
I am not an economic advisor nor do I advise economic strategies or plans. |
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Mike@LG Moderator
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:50 am Post subject: |
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Name: Andrew Bynum
Player comparison: Kelvin Cato athleticism/Brendan Haywood skill
Upside: More athletic Jamaal Magloire. Pre-injury Erick Dampier.
Size:
1. Height – 7'1/4" (Did look at least 2" shorter than listed 7'2" Andreas Glyniadakis)
2. Wingspan – 7'6"
3. Weight - 270
4. Body Fat – N/A
Athleticism:
1. Lateral movement – Good lateral movement for his size. Players like Kelvin Cato are quicker, but, he's just lazy. Prone to being a tad late on weakside help rotation.
2. Initial quickness - Average quickness. Not one to blow by players one on one.
3. Top speed – Good. Willing to run the floor. Increased his transition speed compared to last year. Sometimes, he's the first man down the floor.
4. Vertical leap – Above average. Doesn't show full vert. when he wants. Full vert. was shown on a few rebounds and blocked shots. Has shown some explosion, but really needs to gather his base in order to do it. Has shown a drop-step dunk, power-up dunk on defenders. Still prone to getting dunks blocked by sub-par NBA talent.
5. Reflexes – Good. Not stellar. Not the first to the ball. Getting by on physical characteristics. Namely wingspan.
6. Strength – Below average in the sense that his legs and explosiveness aren't prevalent for such an athlete. Not Amare Stoudemire/Shaquille O'Neal explosive. A bit mechanical. Can vary by the amount of energy he has. Ankles could really use some work in terms of strength and quick-twitch muscles.
7. Conditioning – Improved. Puts in a strong 30 minutes of play. After a series of back to back games, got seriously winded and regressed to playing like Bynum of last season.
8. Footwork – Average. Utilizes the dropstep, but showed better pivot work with the spin move. Go-to shot is the spin pivot for a 2' jumpshot.
9. Balance – Average. Can get knocked off the block. Doesn't use leverage well. Doesn't fall a lot either, despite all the contact he faces.
Skill Level:
1. Offense
• Perimeter Play
• Dribble penetration – N/A
• Post play – Methodical post player. Willing passer who's good at decision-making. Could be more precise. Smart triangle execution as a post-playmaker. Needs more go to moves. Utlizes the pivot foot well to create shot opportunities. Aggressive backing down and going towards the basket. Good extension and elevation on a jumphook. Doesn't have any countermoves. Doesn't re-post well. Hasn't shown the ability to steal position in the paint going from strongside to weakside.
• Off-the-ball – A bit lost at times. A bit indecisive. Doesn't box-out well.
• Short game (0’-7’) – Soft touch in the paint. Should be a high percentage FG shooter. Good shots within 6' usually drop.
• Midrange game (8’-18’) - Needs work. Shot form better, but reluctant to use it as a reliable shot.
2. Defense
• Man to man defense
Position – Average. Prone to quick moves by sub-par NBA talent. Post defense slightly improved, but hasn't really been challenged.
• Off-the-ball defense
Position – Very good. Shows well in pick and roll situations and is improving his timing. A bit late on rotation but contests jumpshots, even behind screens. Gets lucky to even block some of those jumpshots.
Anticipation – Solid.
• Team defense
Position - Solid. Not often late on rotation, but doesn't establish defensive position well.
Anticipation – Inconsistent. A bit slow at times. Rarely caught on no-man's land which allowed Warrick to dunk on him.
Rebounding
1. Offensive
• Box-out – Average. Doesn't actively box-out his man or any man consistently. Doesn't utilize footwork properly for position. Still relying too much on length for rebounding.
• Hustle – Good. Wins on the boards due to wingspan.
• Energy level – Decent.
• Position – Often finds himself boxed out or surrounded by 2 men. Steals boards on wingspan.
2. Defensive
• Box-out – Average Showing improvement game by game.
• Hustle – Average. Shows more energy for offensive boards.
• Energy level –Average.
• Position – Wins the boards on wingspan and rooting guys out of the paint. Better defensive rebounder than offensive rebounder. Slight nose for the ball.
Intangibles
• Leadership – N/A
• Attitude – Good attitude. High effort all over the floor. Learning on the fly with improvement every game.
• Work Ethic – Gained roughly 10lbs on muscle ... upper and lower body. Reflects on his ability to root out players a bit in the post, conditioning, shotblocking, rebounding, and powering up on offense.
• Competitiveness – Quiet demeanor, but never stops trying.
• Unselfishness – Good. Sometimes takes bad shots. Gets caught up in the crowd wanting him to do well in the post. Becoming more unselfish every game.
• Toughness – Good competitor. Just gets a bit winded and outmuscled in the paint at times.
• Mental – N/A
• Physical – Good frame. Could lock him up in a gym and make a granite rock out of him. If he was more chiseled, the man-defense, offensive positioning, and boxing out would all improve.
Summary: I'm not expecting a 25ppg 12rpg player unless he shows the work ethic to get himself a chiseled physique. I'm thinking more along the lines of a 14ppg 11rpg 2bpg player. Solid on both ends of the floor. Shows improvement every game. Shotblocking. Passing in the post. Decision-making within the triangle. Has a lot to learn: Dropstep, jumphook, face up game, arc in his midrange shot, FT consistency, box-out, solid man-defense, maintaining deep position when going from strongside to weakside or how to open up the passing angle, needs leg strength to steal position away from players, etc. An obvious project who is 3-4 years down the road, but definitely one worth waiting for. If he turns out to be a more athletic, better sized Magloire with the 14ppg 11rpg 2bpg relative upside, the Lakers have an absolute steal.
Edit for 7/13: Improved strength, conditioning, pivot work, power up game, rebounding, and triangle execution all up 1 level. If he wants to be a dominant player, there are 4 more levels to go in those same departments. Should definitely warrant 15 minutes of backup center time at least. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
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RCS926 Franchise Player
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:08 am Post subject: |
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Mike@LG wrote: | Name: Andrew Bynum
Player comparison: Kelvin Cato athleticism/Brendan Haywood skill
Upside: More athletic Jamaal Magloire. Pre-injury Erick Dampier.
Size:
1. Height – 7'1/4" (Did look at least 2" shorter than listed 7'2" Andreas Glyniadakis)
2. Wingspan – 7'6"
3. Weight - 270
4. Body Fat – N/A
Athleticism:
1. Lateral movement – Good lateral movement for his size. Players like Kelvin Cato are quicker, but, he's just lazy. Prone to being a tad late on weakside help rotation.
2. Initial quickness - Average quickness. Not one to blow by players one on one.
3. Top speed – Good. Willing to run the floor. Increased his transition speed compared to last year. Sometimes, he's the first man down the floor.
4. Vertical leap – Above average. Doesn't show full vert. when he wants. Full vert. was shown on a few rebounds and blocked shots. Has shown some explosion, but really needs to gather his base in order to do it. Has shown a drop-step dunk, power-up dunk on defenders. Still prone to getting dunks blocked by sub-par NBA talent.
5. Reflexes – Good. Not stellar. Not the first to the ball. Getting by on physical characteristics. Namely wingspan.
6. Strength – Below average in the sense that his legs and explosiveness aren't prevalent for such an athlete. Not Amare Stoudemire/Shaquille O'Neal explosive. A bit mechanical. Can vary by the amount of energy he has. Ankles could really use some work in terms of strength and quick-twitch muscles.
7. Conditioning – Improved. Puts in a strong 30 minutes of play. After a series of back to back games, got seriously winded and regressed to playing like Bynum of last season.
8. Footwork – Average. Utilizes the dropstep, but showed better pivot work with the spin move. Go-to shot is the spin pivot for a 2' jumpshot.
9. Balance – Average. Can get knocked off the block. Doesn't use leverage well. Doesn't fall a lot either, despite all the contact he faces.
Skill Level:
1. Offense
• Perimeter Play
• Dribble penetration – N/A
• Post play – Methodical post player. Willing passer who's good at decision-making. Could be more precise. Smart triangle execution as a post-playmaker. Needs more go to moves. Utlizes the pivot foot well to create shot opportunities. Aggressive backing down and going towards the basket. Good extension and elevation on a jumphook. Doesn't have any countermoves. Doesn't re-post well. Hasn't shown the ability to steal position in the paint going from strongside to weakside.
• Off-the-ball – A bit lost at times. A bit indecisive. Doesn't box-out well.
• Short game (0’-7’) – Soft touch in the paint. Should be a high percentage FG shooter. Good shots within 6' usually drop.
• Midrange game (8’-18’) - Needs work. Shot form better, but reluctant to use it as a reliable shot.
2. Defense
• Man to man defense
Position – Average. Prone to quick moves by sub-par NBA talent. Post defense slightly improved, but hasn't really been challenged.
• Off-the-ball defense
Position – Very good. Shows well in pick and roll situations and is improving his timing. A bit late on rotation but contests jumpshots, even behind screens. Gets lucky to even block some of those jumpshots.
Anticipation – Solid.
• Team defense
Position - Solid. Not often late on rotation, but doesn't establish defensive position well.
Anticipation – Inconsistent. A bit slow at times. Rarely caught on no-man's land which allowed Warrick to dunk on him.
Rebounding
1. Offensive
• Box-out – Average. Doesn't actively box-out his man or any man consistently. Doesn't utilize footwork properly for position. Still relying too much on length for rebounding.
• Hustle – Good. Wins on the boards due to wingspan.
• Energy level – Decent.
• Position – Often finds himself boxed out or surrounded by 2 men. Steals boards on wingspan.
2. Defensive
• Box-out – Average Showing improvement game by game.
• Hustle – Average. Shows more energy for offensive boards.
• Energy level –Average.
• Position – Wins the boards on wingspan and rooting guys out of the paint. Better defensive rebounder than offensive rebounder. Slight nose for the ball.
Intangibles
• Leadership – N/A
• Attitude – Good attitude. High effort all over the floor. Learning on the fly with improvement every game.
• Work Ethic – Gained roughly 10lbs on muscle ... upper and lower body. Reflects on his ability to root out players a bit in the post, conditioning, shotblocking, rebounding, and powering up on offense.
• Competitiveness – Quiet demeanor, but never stops trying.
• Unselfishness – Good. Sometimes takes bad shots. Gets caught up in the crowd wanting him to do well in the post. Becoming more unselfish every game.
• Toughness – Good competitor. Just gets a bit winded and outmuscled in the paint at times.
• Mental – N/A
• Physical – Good frame. Could lock him up in a gym and make a granite rock out of him. If he was more chiseled, the man-defense, offensive positioning, and boxing out would all improve.
Summary: I'm not expecting a 25ppg 12rpg player unless he shows the work ethic to get himself a chiseled physique. I'm thinking more along the lines of a 14ppg 11rpg 2bpg player. Solid on both ends of the floor. Shows improvement every game. Shotblocking. Passing in the post. Decision-making within the triangle. Has a lot to learn: Dropstep, jumphook, face up game, arc in his midrange shot, FT consistency, box-out, solid man-defense, maintaining deep position when going from strongside to weakside or how to open up the passing angle, needs leg strength to steal position away from players, etc. An obvious project who is 3-4 years down the road, but definitely one worth waiting for. If he turns out to be a more athletic, better sized Magloire with the 14ppg 11rpg 2bpg relative upside, the Lakers have an absolute steal.
Edit for 7/13: Improved strength, conditioning, pivot work, power up game, rebounding, and triangle execution all up 1 level. If he wants to be a dominant player, there are 4 more levels to go in those same departments. Should definitely warrant 15 minutes of backup center time at least. |
Excellent analysis as usual, Mike. What's your timetable as far as Bynum's PT goes? If I'm the Laker coaching staff I'm thinking:
06/07: limited (but consistent) back-up minutes
07/08: consistent back-up minutes (around 20 mpg)
08/09: starter minutes (around 30 mpg)
That's on the short end of your 3-4 year window, but I think that's the ideal scenario for the Lakers. |
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Mike@LG Moderator
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:19 am Post subject: |
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Depends on his work ethic into next season. Can't really project ahead too far. 10-15 next season? Warranted. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
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mm708 Starting Rotation
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 1:15 pm Post subject: |
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How about Marcus Slaughter? |
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lakers399 Starting Rotation
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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His downside is Kelvin Cato and Brendan Haywood, upside is Jamal Magloire and pre-injury Dampier? You're being way too conservative Mike. I'm not sure if any of those guys have ever drawn consistent double-teams, even in the summer league.
Also, didn't you say that Patrick O'Bryant is a more polished Bynum? Well that guy is averaging something like 2 points, 2 boards and 7 fouls in 20 min a game right now. Now I'm not saying that you don't know your stuff, but you're being way too hard on this kid. |
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LakerJam Franchise Player
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:09 pm Post subject: |
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lakers399 wrote: | His downside is Kelvin Cato and Brendan Haywood, upside is Jamal Magloire and pre-injury Dampier? You're being way too conservative Mike. I'm not sure if any of those guys have ever drawn consistent double-teams, even in the summer league.
Also, didn't you say that Patrick O'Bryant is a more polished Bynum? Well that guy is averaging something like 2 points, 2 boards and 7 fouls in 20 min a game right now. Now I'm not saying that you don't know your stuff, but you're being way too hard on this kid. |
Mike's always extra hard on our own guys. It's just his way of not building up expectations.
The choice of upside on Bynum is horrific, though. Wow. Jamal Magloire? A guy whose BEST season was 13.6pts, 7.1rbds with 1.23 blks. per game? Or Dampier and his 12/12/1.8? He has no potential to be better than that?
Things like that make you look bad, Mike, because while Bynum may well end up only reaching either of those levels, that level is absolutely NOT his "best case scenario" and to suggest that it is, is ludicrous. |
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Mike@LG Moderator
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:03 pm Post subject: |
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Player comparison has little reflection on actual statistics.
I do my best to imply athletic levels and size on one hand, skill level the next.
Sorry, even average centers don't get swatted by weaker, smaller guys that aren't even NBA level.
He's improved? Yes.
But, I still recognize how much road is left for him. Of 100 miles, he's done 10.
What's worse, is, I already included projected statistics.
Really, I don't know how much more specific or clear I have to be.
Quote: | Things like that make you look bad, Mike, because while Bynum may well end up only reaching either of those levels, that level is absolutely NOT his "best case scenario" and to suggest that it is, is ludicrous. |
Well hey, I don't criticize the readers who aren't reading the details and seeing the specifics about what I say. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
https://lakersdraft.substack.com/
I am not an economic advisor nor do I advise economic strategies or plans.
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loseyourname Star Player
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:27 pm Post subject: |
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Well, if you include the fact that he's also much bigger than Jamaal Magloire, I don't think that's such a bad upside. Put Magloire's offensive ability in a body like Bynum's after a few more years of weight training, and add in Dampier's defensive and rebounding prowess during his career year, and that's a pretty damn good player. Outside of Shaq and Yao, what center in the NBA is better than that right now? Plus, Bynum would likely reach that level around 22 or so, way earlier than either Magloire or Dampier. |
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Mike@LG Moderator
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:34 pm Post subject: |
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^Agreed. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
https://lakersdraft.substack.com/
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LakerJam Franchise Player
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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Mike@LG wrote: | Player comparison has little reflection on actual statistics.
I do my best to imply athletic levels and size on one hand, skill level the next.
Sorry, even average centers don't get swatted by weaker, smaller guys that aren't even NBA level.
He's improved? Yes.
But, I still recognize how much road is left for him. Of 100 miles, he's done 10.
What's worse, is, I already included projected statistics.
Really, I don't know how much more specific or clear I have to be.
Quote: | Things like that make you look bad, Mike, because while Bynum may well end up only reaching either of those levels, that level is absolutely NOT his "best case scenario" and to suggest that it is, is ludicrous. |
Well hey, I don't criticize the readers who aren't reading the details and seeing the specifics about what I say. |
First of all, I'm not criticizing you at all, nor would I. We can disagree on topics, but I respect your basketball passion, insight and knowledge very much. That's not even in question and if I offended you, I do apologize.
As for my post, the only thing I was pointing out is that you're upside scenario for Andrew Bynum is way off, not your assessment of his present day strengths and weaknesses.
"Best case scenario" specifically means that IF a player reaches his absolute maximum potential, then Player X is the best he could ever be. Saying Bynum at his absolute very best, were he to fully maximize his talents and physical gifts, could only be Magloire or Dampier is too conservative. His ceiling is higher than that, regardless of whether or not he reaches that ceiling. Heck, even Draft Express, a site you readily admit to being one of most respected by you, gave him a legitimate upside of Shaquille O'Neal and went on about how that upside is not a fantasy. Now, I don't agree that Bynum at his best is ever going to be Shaq, but the point remains that this kid's upside is far better than a mediocre rebounding big man whose best scoring output in his career is 13 pts. - and that was only in 1 season.
Now, I understand I lean towards the optimistic and have been trying to tone that down. Likewise, you happen to be more conservative with certain players. Let's hope you're wrong and the Lakers are right, because then we all win.
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LakerJam Franchise Player
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:05 pm Post subject: |
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loseyourname wrote: | Well, if you include the fact that he's also much bigger than Jamaal Magloire, I don't think that's such a bad upside. Put Magloire's offensive ability in a body like Bynum's after a few more years of weight training, and add in Dampier's defensive and rebounding prowess during his career year, and that's a pretty damn good player. Outside of Shaq and Yao, what center in the NBA is better than that right now? Plus, Bynum would likely reach that level around 22 or so, way earlier than either Magloire or Dampier. |
Jamal Magloire's offensive ability? The guy had one (1) season where he scored 13.6 points per game. That's it. Other than that, his offensive output has been less than that. Do you think that scoring 13 pts. a game when you're a big man next to the basket is a display of offensive prowess?
13/7. Those are the #s he averaged in his best season when he was an all-star because the east was so weak up front. Those #s aren't even as good as the #s Kwame put up as our starting C (13 & Eight)- and would you ever consider Kwame to be an example of fine offensive abilities?
I think you may be remembering Magloire through rose colored glasses. He's a nice role player, but that's it. Bynum may well end up a nice role player, too, but to say that's his absolute ceiling when he's 18yrs. old, already a better passer than those guys, and getting better every game is just a bit of a stretch to me. I certainly hope Mike is wrong with his low expectations. |
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Mike@LG Moderator
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:14 pm Post subject: |
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Wow.
Jamaal Magloire is an underacheiver? I Highly disagree with that. He was just supposed to be some backup PF for the rest of his career because he's barely 6'10" with long arms and barely above average athleticism.
He's overacheiving.
Then about Dampier. Well, think is Dampier is unmotivated and was injury prone most of his career. That tends to hinder player development.
Yet, I have NEVER said that Bynum lacked in work ethic OR was motivated.
Absolute maximum potential. You realize how tiny that percentage is? Why would I make an expectation on Absolute maximum potential when I just say his general upside is... whatever I project?
You think his ceiling is higher than that? Fine. So do I, but SO MANY things have to work perfectly in order for that to happen.
In 1 summer, all the stars didn't align.
As for DraftExpress, I don't always agree with their player comparisons. They say his upside is Shaquille O'Neal. Well, hey do you remember what happened about Bynum's draft? He showed up VERY VERY late to the radar, didn't have a player workout against a player of similar competition, and barely showed basic set of skills. GMs that saw him knew they had a long road project if they drafted him, which is precisely why he slipped to #10 in the first place.
Even until now, little about him says franchise player.
Then, I've already put the statistical comparison up there. What is so hard for you to accept that it's a good set goal that he may become a more athletic Magloire? What, you want his upside to be Alonzo Mourning when there's nothing about his game that says so? What about Yao Ming when he barely has 1 set post move? Andrew Bogut even though they're near the same age and he's got twice the skill level?
I list a player upside that I think he can absolutely reach, and absolutely maintain for his career, not a borderline impossibility on a player reaching their max potential. Barely 5% of the NBA can vouch for that and I definitely don't think it's fair to put the expectation that he can even be in that 5% that does.
As if I haven't seen more improvement from other NBA players in 1 season compared to Bynum... _________________ Resident Car Nut.
https://lakersdraft.substack.com/
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Mike@LG Moderator
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:19 pm Post subject: |
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Quote: | I certainly hope Mike is wrong with his low expectations. |
LJ, you do realize you're looking at Magloire's statistics when I clearly stated:
I'm thinking more along the lines of a 14ppg 11rpg 2bpg player. Solid on both ends of the floor.
Maybe you should see the statline, watch every SPL game where you see the best and worst of Bynum, and find where you think he should fit among those league leaders.
LINK
While you're at it, maybe stop underrating Magloire:
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/jamaal_magloire/index.html?nav=page
Magloire's All-Star year with more blocks? Better size and same relative athleticism? Very fair. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
https://lakersdraft.substack.com/
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LakerJam Franchise Player
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:27 pm Post subject: |
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You're missing my point, Mike. The only thing I was addressing was the maximum potential, the player's "ceiling" that you gave. That's all. Nothing more. I actually LOVE your in depth assessments, even when I don't necessarily agree. Gives me food for thought and things to look for I may have missed. Believe it or not, I appreciate your conservative side for its balance.
Perhaps a more universal definition of "best and worse Case Scenario" is why we're bumping heads. My understanding is that if you're going to give a worse case and a best case scenario of any player, the specific idea is to list the absolute worst the player will be if he doesn't improve, and the absolute best he could be if he fully maximized his talents and physical gifts. Otherwise, they'd just call it the most likely scenario. I'm not at all critiquing your present day assessment, though you're responding as though you think I am. It's the players you list as his best case, that I'm having trouble digesting, as I don't think highly of either Magloire or Dampier - 2 passionless players who don't have a natural feel for the game of basketball.
As for Magloire, when a 6'10" athletic player with long arms only grabs 6-7 rebounds per game as a starting center, that IS underachieving. |
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Mike@LG Moderator
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:33 pm Post subject: |
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But, it's not a "ceiling" I'm projecting.
It's an upside, a bar, a standard that I think he can reach and will maintain.
Quote: | s for Magloire, when a 6'10" athletic player with long arms only grabs 6-7 rebounds per game as a starting center, that IS underachieving. |
Explain why he's been averaging 8.8 to just over 10rebs per game when he got the PT then. Certainly a player like that shouldn't be top 15 in rebounding, ahead of Shaq, Chandler, Nowitzki, Bosh, Gasol, Boozer, and Jermaine O'Neal.
Most certainly overacheiving. 0.5rebs short of Elton Brand.
Quote: | I don't think highly of either Magloire or Dampier - 2 passionless players who don't have a natural feel for the game of basketball. |
1. Magloire works hard. Dont' underestimate that.
2. I don't put "passion" of other players into the scouting report unless stated. I put level of athleticism and skill level. Players close to the comparison in size. That's it.
But I'm certainly not going to say "Passion of Alonzo Mourning, Size of Shaquille O'Neal, athleticism of whomever... skill level of whomever... etc."
Don't got that kind of time. _________________ Resident Car Nut.
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LakerJam Franchise Player
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Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:38 pm Post subject: |
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Mike@LG wrote: | Quote: | I certainly hope Mike is wrong with his low expectations. |
LJ, you do realize you're looking at Magloire's statistics when I clearly stated:
I'm thinking more along the lines of a 14ppg 11rpg 2bpg player. Solid on both ends of the floor.
Maybe you should see the statline, watch every SPL game where you see the best and worst of Bynum, and find where you think he should fit among those league leaders.
LINK
While you're at it, maybe stop underrating Magloire:
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/jamaal_magloire/index.html?nav=page
Magloire's All-Star year with more blocks? Better size and same relative athleticism? Very fair. |
7 rebounds per game - that was his all-star year.
Ugh, I guess I just really don't like Magloire as a player - I think he's so over-rated.
That said, those numbers you give are nothing to sneeze at and I certainly would be happy with that. I'll tell you what. I'll concede the #s as solid potential for Bynum, but I'm not conceding the players you list as his maximum upside because I think those 2 are chumps who don't have the same feel for the game Bynum does. I also think Bynum can and will score more than just 14 pts. per game, especially when Kwame "Mr. Cement hands" Brown averaged 13 as a starter on put backs; and we can already see that Bynum is going to be a better low post scorer than Kwame. |
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