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focus
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 Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:54 am Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | Monmouth Poll: Bernie, Warren surge to tie Biden atop Democratic field
| Quote: | Dave Weigel @daveweigel
New national Monmouth poll:
Sanders: 20% (+6)
Warren: 20% (+5)
Biden: 19% (-13)!
Harris: 8% (-)
Booker: 4% (+2)
Buttigieg: 4% (-1)
Yang: 3% (+1)
Castro: 2% (+2)
O’Rourke: 2% (-1)
Williamson: 2% (+1) |
| Quote: | Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have surged to tie with Joe Biden atop the Democratic presidential field, according to a poll that suggests the three are solidifying their status as the top tier in the massive field.
The Monmouth University poll, released Monday, shows Sanders and Warren deadlocked among Democratic voters at 20 percent, with Biden a point behind, at 19 percent. No other candidate cracks double digits: Kamala Harris is in fourth place, at 8 percent.
Compared with the Monmouth poll in June, Sanders has ticked up 6 points, and Warren 5 points. Biden dropped 13 points, from 32 percent in June.
The poll shows Biden’s slippage coming across the Democratic electorate, rather than from a specific demographic or ideological group. He is down 14 points among white and nonwhite voters. He’s down 14 points among men, and 13 points among women. He’s down 15 points among voters younger than 50 years old, and 9 percent among voters 50 and older.
Biden also slipped 18 points among Democratic voters who described themselves as moderate or conservative, and 9 points among self-identified liberals. |
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Adding from CNN https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/26/politics/monmouth-august-democrats-biden-warren-sanders/index.html
| Quote: | | On the subject of health care, more than half (58%) of Democratic voters say it's very important that they nominate someone who supports "Medicare for All," |
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Just for the record, I don't expect the other polls to necessarily replicate this one. We'll see if there's a trend among all the polls in aggregate when the others come out. |
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Surfitall
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| Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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| From the Sanders campaign: "The poll shows Bernie is now the candidate with the largest amount of support from people of color," said Sirota. "Compared to Monmouth's June poll, Biden has dropped 14 points among people of color, while Bernie has gained seven points among people of color—the biggest gain of any candidate." |
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:50 pm Post subject: |
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Also from August Monmouth Poll - Net favorability (January numbers)
| Quote: |
Warren +52 (+40) up 12 pts since Jan
Biden +41 (+71) down 30 pts since Jan
Sanders +40 (+49) down 9 pts since Jan
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Wilt
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| Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | | Just for the record, I don't expect the other polls to necessarily replicate this one. We'll see if there's a trend among all the polls in aggregate when the others come out. |
Yeah, unless other polls show similar results, we can call this an outlier. And it's also less than 300 people with a high margin of error.
Just this morning, politico released a poll and Biden is up 13.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:59 pm Post subject: |
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Tough to see Biden losing the nomination with Warren and Sanders splitting the progressive vote.
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jodeke
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| Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:16 pm Post subject: |
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Watched The Manchurian Candidate again tonight. For some reason this time Trump came to mind. Maybe he should have a MRI.
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Wilt
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| Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Surfitall wrote: | | From the Sanders campaign: "The poll shows Bernie is now the candidate with the largest amount of support from people of color," said Sirota. "Compared to Monmouth's June poll, Biden has dropped 14 points among people of color, while Bernie has gained seven points among people of color—the biggest gain of any candidate." |
There is a margin of error of almost 10% in that poll among people of color, considering that they interviewed less than 300 people overall.
While Bernie has done relatively well among people of color, it's highly unlikely that he leads Biden there.
This poll seemed rushed in order to qualify it for the next Democratic debate.
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:00 am Post subject: |
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Looking at all the polls listed at 538 that include Aug 10 or later, which includes the Monmouth poll, the average (unweighted) for the three leaders:
Biden: 29%
Bernie: 17%
Warren: 14%
I'm guessing that if weighted the gaps would narrow.
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eddiejonze
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:41 am Post subject: |
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Wish we could just springboard off of one solitary poll- Politico posted a Quinnipiac poll a month ago that had Biden winning Texas!
My big fear is and will always be we out-progressive the Moderate candidate only to get trounced in the Electoral college in which Drumpf and his team of asshats still has a strong advantage.
Ohio has almost completely gone red and only a moderate can win.
All the talk of Texas turning blue would only be a slight, sky blue- not some deep blue at least in 2020.
Same with Florida.
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eddiejonze
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:31 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | The Democratic presidential candidate was warmly received by the audience and by native leaders onstage before they redirected the conversation to her policy positions.
But this wasn’t enough for some prominent Native Americans who have been pushing Warren to have a more fulsome public dialogue for years.
POLITICO reached out to a dozen of her critics, some of whom have been following the controversy since her first Senate run in 2012. A handful have said they can’t vote for the senator — in the primary or the general election. But others are hedging and waiting for a sign Warren has heard their concerns. The recent apology, they said, was not that sign.
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| Quote: | Some former critics have over recent months seen Warren as a stronger ally.
Julian Brave NoiseCat, member of the Canim Lake Band, has applauded Warren for rebuilding relationships in the native community. He found it encouraging the senator opened with an apology at the Native American presidential forum and used the term “harm.”
“Some of the things people want her to say — it’s hard for me to imagine any politician saying that verbatim,” he said. “We should stop providing fodder to that. You don’t have to vote for her.” |
| Quote: | Because Native Americans aren’t a monolith, Warren has seen statements of support, opposition and indifference from people outside her most vocal critics for how she handled the DNA test aftermath.
Heads of native voting rights group Four Directions and the National Congress of American Indians said Warren’s DNA test was not an issue compared with other day-to-day issues Native Americans face.
Haaland, who partnered with Warren on legislation to address the underfunding of federal programs to help Native Americans, said last Monday that journalists “feed the president’s racism” when they ask about Warren’s ancestry. |
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| eddiejonze wrote: | Wish we could just springboard off of one solitary poll- Politico posted a Quinnipiac poll a month ago that had Biden winning Texas!
My big fear is and will always be we out-progressive the Moderate candidate only to get trounced in the Electoral college in which Drumpf and his team of asshats still has a strong advantage.
Ohio has almost completely gone red and only a moderate can win.
All the talk of Texas turning blue would only be a slight, sky blue- not some deep blue at least in 2020.
Same with Florida. |
NY Magazine: Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him (picture of electoral map at link)
| Quote: | The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent. |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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| eddiejonze wrote: |
My big fear is and will always be we out-progressive the Moderate candidate only to get trounced in the Electoral college in which Drumpf and his team of asshats still has a strong advantage.
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That is my concern. Warren is, and always has been, one of my two favorites, with her brilliant and well developed policies, though she is also my most feared candidate as per your concern. My other choice is (and becoming, was) Amy Kobuchar, as I thought Amy could be a better choice for the general election. She is progressive enough (short version, equal opportunity) but not too liberal (short version, equal outcomes). I have been hoping to see Liz gain in the polls to the point she polled as well as any others, but that is not happening, at least yet.
A new Emerson Poll (rated B+ by 538) of 627 LV's, shows Biden beating Trump by 8, Bernie by 4, and Warren, tied (though upon closer examination it is Liz 50.4, Trump 49.6)
If this holds, my choice will be Biden.
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| History: The only time Democrats have won the White House since the 1950's is when they have a candidate that is inspirational and excites their base. Every time they put up a safe moderate boring candidate, they lose. |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:33 pm Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | | History: The only time Democrats have won the White House since the 1950's is when they have a candidate that is inspirational and excites their base. Every time they put up a safe moderate boring candidate, they lose. |
That is not quite true. Hillary and Gore both won the popular vote. Bill Clinton was a fine speaker but he was hardly one who excited his base. Edwards and Hart were both inspirational but they had their other problems. If Carter is considered one who excites his base, so therefore he won in 1976, he must have become moderate and boring in 1980, when he lost. LBJ was hardly inspirational when he ran and became even less so after his first term. McGovern very definitely excited the base and got trounced.
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:51 pm Post subject: |
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Vote for me because I was Barrack's bff, you know my name and I'm an old white guy that can probably beat the other old white guy because moderate white guys won't be afraid to vote for me.
Most loyal Democratic voters:
women
women of color |
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DaMuleRules
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:00 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | eddiejonze wrote: |
My big fear is and will always be we out-progressive the Moderate candidate only to get trounced in the Electoral college in which Drumpf and his team of asshats still has a strong advantage.
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That is my concern. Warren is, and always has been, one of my two favorites, with her brilliant and well developed policies, though she is also my most feared candidate as per your concern. My other choice is (and becoming, was) Amy Kobuchar, as I thought Amy could be a better choice for the general election. She is progressive enough (short version, equal opportunity) but not too liberal (short version, equal outcomes). I have been hoping to see Liz gain in the polls to the point she polled as well as any others, but that is not happening, at least yet.
A new Emerson Poll (rated B+ by 538) of 627 LV's, shows Biden beating Trump by 8, Bernie by 4, and Warren, tied (though upon closer examination it is Liz 50.4, Trump 49.6)
If this holds, my choice will be Biden. |
Understandable. I know we keep hearing that Biden is the Dem who is most likely to beat Trump and why. But I am beginning to wonder if that's going to actually be a problem for the Dems. I think that may keep people away from the polls on election day - an uninspiring, boringly conventional politician doesn't say "I need to run to the booth!" particularly when he is being billed as the guy who can beat Trump.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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| DaMuleRules wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | | eddiejonze wrote: |
My big fear is and will always be we out-progressive the Moderate candidate only to get trounced in the Electoral college in which Drumpf and his team of asshats still has a strong advantage.
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That is my concern. Warren is, and always has been, one of my two favorites, with her brilliant and well developed policies, though she is also my most feared candidate as per your concern. My other choice is (and becoming, was) Amy Kobuchar, as I thought Amy could be a better choice for the general election. She is progressive enough (short version, equal opportunity) but not too liberal (short version, equal outcomes). I have been hoping to see Liz gain in the polls to the point she polled as well as any others, but that is not happening, at least yet.
A new Emerson Poll (rated B+ by 538) of 627 LV's, shows Biden beating Trump by 8, Bernie by 4, and Warren, tied (though upon closer examination it is Liz 50.4, Trump 49.6)
If this holds, my choice will be Biden. |
Understandable. I know we keep hearing that Biden is the Dem who is most likely to beat Trump and why. But I am beginning to wonder if that's going to actually be a problem for the Dems. I think that may keep people away from the polls on election day - an uninspiring, boringly conventional politician doesn't say "I need to run to the booth!" particularly when he is being billed as the guy who can beat Trump. |
If he was just boring for some Dems, that would be one thing. But he has been condescending and borderline offensive to some left Dem voters with some of his statements. I just want him to stick to the middle. And that includes being welcoming to both sides.
With that said, the only way I see Biden losing the nomination is if Warren or Sanders drop out early enough into the primary.
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non-player zealot
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | ChefLinda wrote: | | History: The only time Democrats have won the White House since the 1950's is when they have a candidate that is inspirational and excites their base. Every time they put up a safe moderate boring candidate, they lose. |
That is not quite true. Hillary and Gore both won the popular vote. Bill Clinton was a fine speaker but he was hardly one who excited his base. Edwards and Hart were both inspirational but they had their other problems. If Carter is considered one who excites his base, so therefore he won in 1976, he must have become moderate and boring in 1980, when he lost. LBJ was hardly inspirational when he ran and became even less so after his first term. McGovern very definitely excited the base and got trounced. |
Mike Dukakis? The tank thing seemed like a good idea at the time.
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kikanga
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:43 pm Post subject: |
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| non-player zealot wrote: | | ribeye wrote: | | ChefLinda wrote: | | History: The only time Democrats have won the White House since the 1950's is when they have a candidate that is inspirational and excites their base. Every time they put up a safe moderate boring candidate, they lose. |
That is not quite true. Hillary and Gore both won the popular vote. Bill Clinton was a fine speaker but he was hardly one who excited his base. Edwards and Hart were both inspirational but they had their other problems. If Carter is considered one who excites his base, so therefore he won in 1976, he must have become moderate and boring in 1980, when he lost. LBJ was hardly inspirational when he ran and became even less so after his first term. McGovern very definitely excited the base and got trounced. |
Mike Dukakis? The tank thing seemed like a good idea at the time. |
If we're playing the "what similarities do you have to past general election losers" game.
Biden is the same "establishment" candidate running against Trump that Hillary C was in 2016. And Warren is an elderly, white woman like Hillary C was in 2016. Everyone can draw whatever lines they want.
At the end of the day Dems are putting their eggs in 1 basket or the other. Either Biden can win because "left" Dems still vote for him, or Warren can win because "moderate" Dems still vote for her. Sanders is another bag of worms because of how the 2016 election played out.
Sanders or Warren won't get the nomination unless one of them drops out early. Combined their votes are far past Biden. But they are in each others way.
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:35 pm Post subject: |
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Biden is less likely than Hillary to win large numbers of women in blue states, but more likely to win the swing states. Still figuring out where Warren measures out.
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ChefLinda
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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Trump is already underwater in most of the swing states. This map takes his current approval/disapproval numbers and transfers then to the electoral map. (I posted the NY Magazine story above and linked to this map).
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kikanga
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Omar Little wrote: | | Biden is less likely than Hillary to win large numbers of women in blue states, but more likely to win the swing states. Still figuring out where Warren measures out. |
That's a fair assessment of where the polling numbers shake out now. I just wish Biden could match the votes of Warren and Sanders combined. Then I wouldn't worry about the progressive vote showing up for Biden in the GE. Don't want a repeat of 2016. As much as Biden cuts into Trump's numbers in the suburbs and low population areas. We still need the cities and people living in the greater city area to show up in mass.
We've been spoiled in the past by having candidates who could do both.
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Omar Little
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| Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:51 pm Post subject: |
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| ChefLinda wrote: | Trump is already underwater in most of the swing states. This map takes his current approval/disapproval numbers and transfers then to the electoral map. (I posted the NY Magazine story above and linked to this map).
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Just be aware that approval numbers do not equal voting preference. There are a ton of independents and republicans who will answer that they disapprove but who will still vote for him.
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