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eddiejonze
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:39 pm    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
First poll since Democratic debate last week. NBC/WSJ poll: Biden leads Dem 2020 field, Warren's support grows

Quote:
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., continue to top the Democratic 2020 presidential field after last week’s debate — in a race for the nomination that breaks along ideological and racial lines, according to a national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday.

The survey also shows that Warren has the advantage in enthusiasm, and that she gets the most second-choice support.

Biden leads the overall horserace with backing from 31 percent of Democratic primary voters (up 5 points since July), while Warren gets 25 percent (up 6 points).


Quote:
Biden 31% (+5)
Warren 25% (+6)
Sanders 14% (+1)
Buttigieg 7% (same)
Harris 5% (-8%)


If Sanders eventually drops out, his endorsement could determine the whole thing. Ideologically, the choice for who to endorse is obvious.


Not too obvious, at least according to people who have had enough of "old white guys"...If that's true we will find out for sure because of course, they would leave Sanders for Biden lol.
In all seriousness, Biden would get Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, and I'm Guessing Buttigeieg's supporters if they drop out.
Heck, I bet Yang has a lot of Sillicon Valley support which would go to Biden for fear of being over taxed.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:37 pm    Post subject:

eddiejonze wrote:
kikanga wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
First poll since Democratic debate last week. NBC/WSJ poll: Biden leads Dem 2020 field, Warren's support grows

Quote:
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., continue to top the Democratic 2020 presidential field after last week’s debate — in a race for the nomination that breaks along ideological and racial lines, according to a national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday.

The survey also shows that Warren has the advantage in enthusiasm, and that she gets the most second-choice support.

Biden leads the overall horserace with backing from 31 percent of Democratic primary voters (up 5 points since July), while Warren gets 25 percent (up 6 points).


Quote:
Biden 31% (+5)
Warren 25% (+6)
Sanders 14% (+1)
Buttigieg 7% (same)
Harris 5% (-8%)


If Sanders eventually drops out, his endorsement could determine the whole thing. Ideologically, the choice for who to endorse is obvious.


Not too obvious, at least according to people who have had enough of "old white guys"...If that's true we will find out for sure because of course, they would leave Sanders for Biden lol.
In all seriousness, Biden would get Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, and I'm Guessing Buttigeieg's supporters if they drop out.
Heck, I bet Yang has a lot of Sillicon Valley support which would go to Biden for fear of being over taxed.

Yang is missing from the poll. Completely forgot about him. All I was saying is. Ideologically nobody is closer to Sanders than Warren. So if he endorses someone based on ideological reasons I expect it to be her.
Biden should get Harris and Pete voters though. They are more moderate candidates. Strictly speaking on policy.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:40 pm    Post subject:

eddiejonze wrote:
kikanga wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
First poll since Democratic debate last week. NBC/WSJ poll: Biden leads Dem 2020 field, Warren's support grows

Quote:
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., continue to top the Democratic 2020 presidential field after last week’s debate — in a race for the nomination that breaks along ideological and racial lines, according to a national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday.

The survey also shows that Warren has the advantage in enthusiasm, and that she gets the most second-choice support.

Biden leads the overall horserace with backing from 31 percent of Democratic primary voters (up 5 points since July), while Warren gets 25 percent (up 6 points).


Quote:
Biden 31% (+5)
Warren 25% (+6)
Sanders 14% (+1)
Buttigieg 7% (same)
Harris 5% (-8%)


If Sanders eventually drops out, his endorsement could determine the whole thing. Ideologically, the choice for who to endorse is obvious.


Not too obvious, at least according to people who have had enough of "old white guys"...If that's true we will find out for sure because of course, they would leave Sanders for Biden lol.
In all seriousness, Biden would get Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, and I'm Guessing Buttigeieg's supporters if they drop out.
Heck, I bet Yang has a lot of Sillicon Valley support which would go to Biden for fear of being over taxed.


According to that last Morning Consult poll Sanders voters second choice is surprisingly Biden by 1 percent over Warren.

I think Yang is mostly dipping in the Bernie pool, too.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:56 pm    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
eddiejonze wrote:
kikanga wrote:
ChefLinda wrote:
First poll since Democratic debate last week. NBC/WSJ poll: Biden leads Dem 2020 field, Warren's support grows

Quote:
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., continue to top the Democratic 2020 presidential field after last week’s debate — in a race for the nomination that breaks along ideological and racial lines, according to a national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday.

The survey also shows that Warren has the advantage in enthusiasm, and that she gets the most second-choice support.

Biden leads the overall horserace with backing from 31 percent of Democratic primary voters (up 5 points since July), while Warren gets 25 percent (up 6 points).


Quote:
Biden 31% (+5)
Warren 25% (+6)
Sanders 14% (+1)
Buttigieg 7% (same)
Harris 5% (-8%)


If Sanders eventually drops out, his endorsement could determine the whole thing. Ideologically, the choice for who to endorse is obvious.


Not too obvious, at least according to people who have had enough of "old white guys"...If that's true we will find out for sure because of course, they would leave Sanders for Biden lol.
In all seriousness, Biden would get Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, and I'm Guessing Buttigeieg's supporters if they drop out.
Heck, I bet Yang has a lot of Sillicon Valley support which would go to Biden for fear of being over taxed.


According to that last Morning Consult poll Sanders voters second choice is surprisingly Biden by 1 percent over Warren.

I think Yang is mostly dipping in the Bernie pool, too.


I'm wondering how many Bernie Bros go to Biden if Bernie endorses another candidate. It would be a good test for what Bernie bros really value most. If you were to put all the candidates on a policy spectrum. Bernie and Biden are on polar opposites. Despite both being "old white guys".
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:18 pm    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
I'm wondering how many Bernie Bros go to Biden if Bernie endorses another candidate. It would be a good test for what Bernie bros really value most. If you were to put all the candidates on a policy spectrum. Bernie and Biden are on polar opposites. Despite both being "old white guys".


My sense is there's a lot of bad blood brewing in the Sanders community towards Warren. The crying over the recent WFP endorsement, for instance.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:48 pm    Post subject:

Yang is really intriguing. Ideologically he may be even further to the left of Sanders with his UBI "freedom dividend," but he seems to frame his whole policy platform as looking to proactively solve the problems that technology has caused and will cause before it's too late. He's also an entrepreneur and seems to have some kind of tech industry sensibility, even though I'm not sure he has a tech background. That sensibility may allow him to appeal to some non-liberals, even those who are more fiscally conservative, since most entrepreneurs seem to be libertarian.

I think he's ahead of his time. If his freedom dividend would actually be a good idea and it won't raise inflation, he needs to hit the mainstream news circuit over the next several years and expose the public to his ideas.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:07 am    Post subject:

greenfrog wrote:
kikanga wrote:
I'm wondering how many Bernie Bros go to Biden if Bernie endorses another candidate. It would be a good test for what Bernie bros really value most. If you were to put all the candidates on a policy spectrum. Bernie and Biden are on polar opposites. Despite both being "old white guys".


My sense is there's a lot of bad blood brewing in the Sanders community towards Warren. The crying over the recent WFP endorsement, for instance.



I can understand people preferring Bernie over Warren. That turks video explains that thought process.
But I can't understand supporting Biden if Bernie is your first choice and he drops out. I'm not doubting its possible. They just have so little in common in terms of policy. Only way I see Bernie endorsing Biden is if Biden wins the nomination and it's general election time.
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Huey Lewis & The News
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:55 am    Post subject:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-09-17/la-county-supervisors-homeless-boise-case-amicus-brief-supreme-court-challenge
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:10 am    Post subject:

What happens when you hand the purse to Republicans
EVERYTIME They steal steal steal and bankrupt our country

Republicanism NEEDS to be considered a National Health Crisis
60+ million citizens are too (bleep) evil and dumb to be considered
Functional Citizens
Their leaders ALWAYS cause a Financial Crisis
Did I say always. I meant it. History shows Republicans are thieves and love them some
Government Welfare



‘This Is Crazy!’: Wall Street Scurries to Protect Itself in Repo Surge
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crazy-wall-street-scurries-protect-235148948.html?bcmt=1

Quote:
Inside the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the powerful markets group had already been canvassing dealers about lending rates. By 10:10 a.m., after an initial, embarrassing misstep, the Fed was pumping $53.2 billion into the market to calm nerves and regain control over interest rates -- its first intervention since the dark days of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and the rest.


-----

Quote:
Then, at 7:38 a.m., the bid-ask spread flashed on dealing screens: 8% - 6%.

It was even worse than the dealers had feared.

The repo rate kept rising, eventually reaching as high as 10%. By 9 a.m., a half hour before the stock market was to open, the fed funds rate was bumping up against the Fed’s upper limit.

The message was clear: the Fed would have to step in like it used in the days before the financial crisis. At 9:17, the Fed confirmed what everyone already suspected: it would conduct an overnight repurchase agreement operation from 9:30 to 9:45. The move would inject as much as $75 billion of liquidity into the market.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:54 am    Post subject:

slavavov wrote:
Yang is really intriguing. Ideologically he may be even further to the left of Sanders with his UBI "freedom dividend," but he seems to frame his whole policy platform as looking to proactively solve the problems that technology has caused and will cause before it's too late. He's also an entrepreneur and seems to have some kind of tech industry sensibility, even though I'm not sure he has a tech background. That sensibility may allow him to appeal to some non-liberals, even those who are more fiscally conservative, since most entrepreneurs seem to be libertarian.

I think he's ahead of his time. If his freedom dividend would actually be a good idea and it won't raise inflation, he needs to hit the mainstream news circuit over the next several years and expose the public to his ideas.


I think he went from intriguing to a gimmick.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:58 am    Post subject:

Huey Lewis & The News wrote:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-09-17/la-county-supervisors-homeless-boise-case-amicus-brief-supreme-court-challenge


Build more affordable housing. Not arrest them.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:15 am    Post subject:

kikanga wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
kikanga wrote:
I'm wondering how many Bernie Bros go to Biden if Bernie endorses another candidate. It would be a good test for what Bernie bros really value most. If you were to put all the candidates on a policy spectrum. Bernie and Biden are on polar opposites. Despite both being "old white guys".


My sense is there's a lot of bad blood brewing in the Sanders community towards Warren. The crying over the recent WFP endorsement, for instance.



I can understand people preferring Bernie over Warren. That turks video explains that thought process.
But I can't understand supporting Biden if Bernie is your first choice and he drops out. I'm not doubting its possible. They just have so little in common in terms of policy. Only way I see Bernie endorsing Biden is if Biden wins the nomination and it's general election time.


The secret here is that a large portion of Bernie supporters are not with him primarily on policy. It’s a cult of personality. Not dissimilar to Trump’s deepest base. It’s why they wouldn’t vote for Hillary. Because she stole the precious. This time, they blame Warren. There’s some sexism in there (despite having a lot of female voters there’s a strong patriarchal tone to Bernie’s movement) along with blaming the one who does him the most perceived “wrong”.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:23 am    Post subject:

Omar Little wrote:
kikanga wrote:
greenfrog wrote:
kikanga wrote:
I'm wondering how many Bernie Bros go to Biden if Bernie endorses another candidate. It would be a good test for what Bernie bros really value most. If you were to put all the candidates on a policy spectrum. Bernie and Biden are on polar opposites. Despite both being "old white guys".


My sense is there's a lot of bad blood brewing in the Sanders community towards Warren. The crying over the recent WFP endorsement, for instance.



I can understand people preferring Bernie over Warren. That turks video explains that thought process.
But I can't understand supporting Biden if Bernie is your first choice and he drops out. I'm not doubting its possible. They just have so little in common in terms of policy. Only way I see Bernie endorsing Biden is if Biden wins the nomination and it's general election time.


The secret here is that a large portion of Bernie supporters are not with him primarily on policy. It’s a cult of personality. Not dissimilar to Trump’s deepest base. It’s why they wouldn’t vote for Hillary. Because she stole the precious. This time, they blame Warren. There’s some sexism in there (despite having a lot of female voters there’s a strong patriarchal tone to Bernie’s movement) along with blaming the one who does him the most perceived “wrong”.


Exactly. It's just a game to them.

Hence the, "I'm taking my ball and going home" attitude when it comes time to vaote and actually make a difference.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:32 am    Post subject:

Fwiw, Yang’s “gimmick” is absolutely on the right track. Our overcrowded technological world doesn’t need humans to be productive so much as it needs them to move money around (a huge part of income inequality’s I’ll effects are from the fact that the wealthiest few not only gather a large share of money, but that they don’t recirculate it largely or broadly or quickly enough). To put it simply, we don’t need people to get a job. We need them to spend money.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:37 am    Post subject:

Omar Little wrote:
Fwiw, Yang’s “gimmick” is absolutely on the right track. Our overcrowded technological world doesn’t need humans to be productive so much as it needs them to move money around (a huge part of income inequality’s I’ll effects are from the fact that the wealthiest few not only gather a large share of money, but that they don’t recirculate it largely or broadly or quickly enough). To put it simply, we don’t need people to get a job. We need them to spend money.


The gimmick is to give people $1000 through an online raffle. A serious presidential candidate doesn't do that. And it doesn't help that he really doesn't have much to say about most other issues.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:26 am    Post subject:

Wilt wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
Fwiw, Yang’s “gimmick” is absolutely on the right track. Our overcrowded technological world doesn’t need humans to be productive so much as it needs them to move money around (a huge part of income inequality’s I’ll effects are from the fact that the wealthiest few not only gather a large share of money, but that they don’t recirculate it largely or broadly or quickly enough). To put it simply, we don’t need people to get a job. We need them to spend money.


The gimmick is to give people $1000 through an online raffle. A serious presidential candidate doesn't do that. And it doesn't help that he really doesn't have much to say about most other issues.


He has to make the most of what little time he gets, and that's usually bringing it back to the core thesis of his campaign. If you go to his website he actually has more detailed policy proposals than probably the entire field combined.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:26 am    Post subject:

Sure, I don’t think Yang is a serious candidate. He saw a sketchy billionaire win the presidency and thought, why not me. His gimmick is important in that it brings the idea to the public.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:00 am    Post subject:

Omar Little wrote:
Sure, I don’t think Yang is a serious candidate. He saw a sketchy billionaire win the presidency and thought, why not me. His gimmick is important in that it brings the idea to the public.


sounds like 'Sure, I don't think Trump is a serious candidate' 4 years ago
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:45 am    Post subject:

governator wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
Sure, I don’t think Yang is a serious candidate. He saw a sketchy billionaire win the presidency and thought, why not me. His gimmick is important in that it brings the idea to the public.


sounds like 'Sure, I don't think Trump is a serious candidate' 4 years ago


And he wasn't. He didn't run to win the election and he and his campaign didn't believe he would win until election night. The difference between the two parties is that the Republicans would nominate someone like Trump, while Democrats take those things seriously.

Yang won't win the nomination. He probably knows that. He brought a potentially good idea to the public, but he didn't have to do what he did at the debate.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:03 am    Post subject:

From what I read in the EPA, Waiver Process, the EPA shall issue the waiver provided that California does not violate certain basic concerns:

Quote:
Waiver Process

(b) Waiver

(1) The Administrator shall, after notice and opportunity for public hearing, waive application of this section to any State which has adopted standards (other than crankcase emission standards) for the control of emissions from new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines prior to March 30, 1966, if the State determines that the State standards will be, in the aggregate, at least as protective of public health and welfare as applicable Federal standards. No such waiver shall be granted if the Administrator finds that—

(A) the determination of the State is arbitrary and capricious,

(B) such State does not need such State standards to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions, or

(C) such State standards and accompanying enforcement procedures are not consistent with section 7521(a) of this title.


Waiver Process

7521(a)-for those who really want to get into the weeds.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:28 am    Post subject:

Politico: ‘The ground is shifting’: Arizona emerges as a 2020 trouble spot for Trump

Quote:
Demographic shifts, progressive organizing efforts and President Donald Trump’s potential weakness in the state appear to be providing Democrats in 2020 with their best shot at capturing the state since Bill Clinton won it more than two decades ago.

A new poll, commissioned by a state labor union and released today, shows Trump running neck-and-neck with Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden in theoretical match-ups.


Quote:
Trump is tied dead even with Warren at 42 percent in a general election match-up and is essentially tied with Biden 43-42 percent, a lead well within the poll’s margin of error of plus/minus 4.3 points.

McSally is tied at 42 percent with Kelly, a former astronaut and husband of former Arizona Congresswoman and mass-shooting survivor Gabby Giffords.

“Contrary to the conventional wisdom that the presidential race is down to only four swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida — this poll makes it clear that Arizona is wide open,” said pollster Fernand Amandi. “Arizona is emerging as the new battleground.”


Quote:
Both Amandi’s poll and OH Predictive’s found that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and other candidates fared more poorly against Trump.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:41 am    Post subject:

Wilt wrote:
governator wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
Sure, I don’t think Yang is a serious candidate. He saw a sketchy billionaire win the presidency and thought, why not me. His gimmick is important in that it brings the idea to the public.


sounds like 'Sure, I don't think Trump is a serious candidate' 4 years ago


And he wasn't. He didn't run to win the election and he and his campaign didn't believe he would win until election night. The difference between the two parties is that the Republicans would nominate someone like Trump, while Democrats take those things seriously.

Yang won't win the nomination. He probably knows that. He brought a potentially good idea to the public, but he didn't have to do what he did at the debate.


Didn't Trump take the lead in the polls among the GOP field relatively quickly after announcing his candidacy, though? Has Yang even hit 5% yet? Perhaps Trump didn't think he would win up until election night, but he polled well among the GOP field almost straight from the jump.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:50 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Wilt wrote:
governator wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
Sure, I don’t think Yang is a serious candidate. He saw a sketchy billionaire win the presidency and thought, why not me. His gimmick is important in that it brings the idea to the public.


sounds like 'Sure, I don't think Trump is a serious candidate' 4 years ago


And he wasn't. He didn't run to win the election and he and his campaign didn't believe he would win until election night. The difference between the two parties is that the Republicans would nominate someone like Trump, while Democrats take those things seriously.

Yang won't win the nomination. He probably knows that. He brought a potentially good idea to the public, but he didn't have to do what he did at the debate.


Didn't Trump take the lead in the polls among the GOP field relatively quickly after announcing his candidacy, though? Has Yang even hit 5% yet? Perhaps Trump didn't think he would win up until election night, but he polled well among the GOP field almost straight from the jump.


Yep, "Mexicans are rapists and murderers" turned out to be a huge boost to a joke campaign. Subsequent gaffes, like the one where he criticized McCain for being captured, didn't affect the polling numbers much. I'm convinced, and there's been reports in the last three years, that the whole thing was a publicity stunt, which got out of control. Kellyanne basically predicted he would lose early on election day, he didn't have a victory speech written, the whole team was stunned when he kept winning the states he had to win. Of course, the Russians, Comey, and other shenanigans had a role to play, too. In retrospect, all of those things were declared as a result of his incredible political instincts. Let's not forget John Kerry had a larger share of the popular vote than him, the same Kerry that everyone considers an awful candidate. In the end, it was 70,000 damn votes in three states.

Yang just doesn't have a constituency in the Democratic Party. There is no Yangism that has been building up for decades. Trumpism began with Goldwater and turned into this monster we have to deal with.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:30 am    Post subject:

Wilt wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
Wilt wrote:
governator wrote:
Omar Little wrote:
Sure, I don’t think Yang is a serious candidate. He saw a sketchy billionaire win the presidency and thought, why not me. His gimmick is important in that it brings the idea to the public.


sounds like 'Sure, I don't think Trump is a serious candidate' 4 years ago


And he wasn't. He didn't run to win the election and he and his campaign didn't believe he would win until election night. The difference between the two parties is that the Republicans would nominate someone like Trump, while Democrats take those things seriously.

Yang won't win the nomination. He probably knows that. He brought a potentially good idea to the public, but he didn't have to do what he did at the debate.


Didn't Trump take the lead in the polls among the GOP field relatively quickly after announcing his candidacy, though? Has Yang even hit 5% yet? Perhaps Trump didn't think he would win up until election night, but he polled well among the GOP field almost straight from the jump.


Yep, "Mexicans are rapists and murderers" turned out to be a huge boost to a joke campaign. Subsequent gaffes, like the one where he criticized McCain for being captured, didn't affect the polling numbers much. I'm convinced, and there's been reports in the last three years, that the whole thing was a publicity stunt, which got out of control. Kellyanne basically predicted he would lose early on election day, he didn't have a victory speech written, the whole team was stunned when he kept winning the states he had to win. Of course, the Russians, Comey, and other shenanigans had a role to play, too. In retrospect, all of those things were declared as a result of his incredible political instincts. Let's not forget John Kerry had a larger share of the popular vote than him, the same Kerry that everyone considers an awful candidate. In the end, it was 70,000 damn votes in three states.

Yang just doesn't have a constituency in the Democratic Party. There is no Yangism that has been building up for decades. Trumpism began with Goldwater and turned into this monster we have to deal with.


true, that'd be Bernieism
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BigGameHames
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:53 am    Post subject:

slavavov wrote:
Yang is really intriguing. Ideologically he may be even further to the left of Sanders with his UBI "freedom dividend," but he seems to frame his whole policy platform as looking to proactively solve the problems that technology has caused and will cause before it's too late. He's also an entrepreneur and seems to have some kind of tech industry sensibility, even though I'm not sure he has a tech background. That sensibility may allow him to appeal to some non-liberals, even those who are more fiscally conservative, since most entrepreneurs seem to be libertarian.

I think he's ahead of his time. If his freedom dividend would actually be a good idea and it won't raise inflation, he needs to hit the mainstream news circuit over the next several years and expose the public to his ideas.


I would argue Yang is furthest right out of all of the candidates despite his UBI idea. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if he ran as a Republican in the future. As you hinted at, he actually seems to be fairly fiscally conservative and can go into detail of how and why UBI will help the population and technological innovation without negatively impacting the free market.
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