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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:36 am    Post subject:

Djokovic said at his post-match presser that he knew he wasn't playing at his best pretty much all tournament. He mentioned that he felt good playing against Mannarino but other than that, he said he wasn't up to his usual standards.

Meanwhile, Zverev is up 2 sets to none against Medvedev, who is just playing defensive and allowing Zverev to take court positioning from him. Zverev has had some nervy moments -- he was up a double break in the 1st and he lost that lead before winning the set anyway -- but this match is entirely on his racket. If he doesn't physically fall apart, he should win this match.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:31 am    Post subject:

Going to a 5th set now. Both the 3rd and 4th sets went to tiebreaks, and in both of them, Zverev faltered late. Was just up 5-4 in the 4th set breaker with 2 serves coming, and he lost both points, then the next one. Medvedev has changed up his court positioning on the return of serve, not as far behind the baseline, and he's coming to net a bit more (17 out of 20 net points won in the 3rd and 4th sets), and it's given him a chance. Still, Zverev should have won at least one of those 2 tiebreaks.
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ChickenStu
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:59 am    Post subject:

Zverev is melting down. He's down 3-4 after he just held, but he's down a break and the two games he lost from 2-2 were total chokejobs. Missing countless sitters and easy balls. I've watched this whole match and this is like torture. And I don't even have a rooting interest. Zverev absolutely should have won this match and Medvedev is 2 holds away from a most improbable win.

Medvedev won. Really was a meltdown from Zverev. And we've certainly seen that before.
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focus
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 8:53 am    Post subject:

DuncanIdaho wrote:
That was maybe the worst grand slam match Novak played in 15 years, but Sinner earned it too

Sinner definitely earned it, he was at the level he needed to be, focused start to finish, and did not face one break point against the GOAT and the best returner of all time. That's being on it. He may easily have gone to another gear if Djokovic raised his level, but did not need to. Sinner now has a number of wins lately over him and may start getting into Djokovic's head even on a good day in the US hard courts if he hasn't already.
Djokovic said it was the worst slam match ever in postmatch, probably meaning since he became a top player.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 8:59 am    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
Zverev is melting down. He's down 3-4 after he just held, but he's down a break and the two games he lost from 2-2 were total chokejobs. Missing countless sitters and easy balls. I've watched this whole match and this is like torture. And I don't even have a rooting interest. Zverev absolutely should have won this match and Medvedev is 2 holds away from a most improbable win.

Medvedev won. Really was a meltdown from Zverev. And we've certainly seen that before.

Sounds like quite a choke. He does do that.

Medvedev Sinner has a lot of potential. Gonna hope first that Sinner is not beset by nerves that show up in his play all the time, and then may the best man win. Wouldn't mind Medvedev getting his second Slam, and easing the ghost of 2022 choke job to rest in his third Aussie final consecutive. Definitely wouldn't mind Sinner playing great and getting his first. Whoever does it has already had a great year, and gravy for the rest.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 9:00 am    Post subject:

Lastly, also interested in women's final. Hope both play well, but I expect a Sabalenka convincing win.
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:45 am    Post subject:

Looks like the next wave is going to be:

Quote:
Alcaraz (20 yrs old / 2 grand slams)
Medvedev (27 yrs old / 1 grand slam)
Sinner (22 yrs old / 0 grand slams)


Well, either Medvedev or Sinner is going to get another one.

The last 3 times Djokovic has lost in a grand slam tournament were to these 3:

Quote:
2021 US Open final - lost to Medvedev
2023 Wimbledon final - lost to Alcaraz
2024 Australian Open semifinal - lost to Winner


This brings me back to my point about Djokovic's head to head matchups with Federer. Djokovic being 6 years younger played a huge role.

I think Djokovic being 36 right now is giving these young players the edge over him. They're younger, fresher, and move better than he can now.

Sinner was getting to all the balls yesterday. Reminiscent of Djokovic being able to extend rallies vs. Federer with his younger, fresher legs.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 11:46 am    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
Looks like the next wave is going to be:

Quote:
Alcaraz (20 yrs old / 2 grand slams)
Medvedev (27 yrs old / 1 grand slam)
Sinner (22 yrs old / 0 grand slams)


Well, either Medvedev or Sinner is going to get another one.

The last 3 times Djokovic has lost in a grand slam tournament were to these 3:

Quote:
2021 US Open final - lost to Medvedev
2023 Wimbledon final - lost to Alcaraz
2024 Australian Open semifinal - lost to Winner


This brings me back to my point about Djokovic's head to head matchups with Federer. Djokovic being 6 years younger played a huge role.

I think Djokovic being 36 right now is giving these young players the edge over him. They're younger, fresher, and move better than he can now.

Sinner was getting to all the balls yesterday. Reminiscent of Djokovic being able to extend rallies vs. Federer with his younger, fresher legs.
It's not reminiscent of Djokovic last year being able to extend rallies with his older, not-so-fresh legs?
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 12:48 pm    Post subject:

focus wrote:
It's not reminiscent of Djokovic last year being able to extend rallies with his older, not-so-fresh legs?


Not sure what ur saying.

Unless u feel Djokovic was moving very well today?

Sinner looked very fast to me. Similar to when Alcaraz looked super fast at Wimbledon.

I mean, I don’t know what the answer is. But Djokovic did look a step behind unless ur disputing that?
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 1:59 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
focus wrote:
It's not reminiscent of Djokovic last year being able to extend rallies with his older, not-so-fresh legs?


Not sure what ur saying.

Unless u feel Djokovic was moving very well today?

Sinner looked very fast to me. Similar to when Alcaraz looked super fast at Wimbledon.

I mean, I don’t know what the answer is. But Djokovic did look a step behind unless ur disputing that?


I think the biggest reason that he lost was because he simply couldn't get balls back, whether on the service return or just during normal rallies. He was just off in terms of ball striking all day long.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:52 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
focus wrote:
It's not reminiscent of Djokovic last year being able to extend rallies with his older, not-so-fresh legs?


Not sure what ur saying.

Unless u feel Djokovic was moving very well today?

Sinner looked very fast to me. Similar to when Alcaraz looked super fast at Wimbledon.

I mean, I don’t know what the answer is. But Djokovic did look a step behind unless ur disputing that?

I'm saying Djokovic being 6 years younger didn't have much to do with why he beat Federer, since old Djoker was still pretty dominant last year. Old Rafa beat young Medvedev couple years ago too in five. I was addressing your Federer Djokovic comment. I do not know if today was about fresh legs or not so you are probably right about that, but the game certainly wasn't there and he said so.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:13 pm    Post subject:

focus wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
focus wrote:
It's not reminiscent of Djokovic last year being able to extend rallies with his older, not-so-fresh legs?


Not sure what ur saying.

Unless u feel Djokovic was moving very well today?

Sinner looked very fast to me. Similar to when Alcaraz looked super fast at Wimbledon.

I mean, I don’t know what the answer is. But Djokovic did look a step behind unless ur disputing that?


I'm saying Djokovic being 6 years younger didn't have much to do with why he beat Federer, since old Djoker was still pretty dominant last year. Old Rafa beat young Medvedev couple years ago too in five. I was addressing your Federer Djokovic comment. I do not know if today was about fresh legs or not so you are probably right about that, but the game certainly wasn't there and he said so.


I mean, that's definitely fair, since it's your opinion. That's fine.

But if we reversed it, it'd be a 12 yr swing. Instead of 30 yr old Djokovic vs a 36 yr old Federer, what if we reversed it to:

30 yr old Federer vs. a 36 yr old Djokovic?
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LongBeachPoly
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:16 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
focus wrote:
It's not reminiscent of Djokovic last year being able to extend rallies with his older, not-so-fresh legs?


Not sure what ur saying.

Unless u feel Djokovic was moving very well today?

Sinner looked very fast to me. Similar to when Alcaraz looked super fast at Wimbledon.

I mean, I don’t know what the answer is. But Djokovic did look a step behind unless ur disputing that?


I think the biggest reason that he lost was because he simply couldn't get balls back, whether on the service return or just during normal rallies. He was just off in terms of ball striking all day long.


For sure. When he's hitting his shots, he's going to win.

But prime Djokovic was an athletic freak to me. I mean, Nadal was probably the most physically gifted tennis player I can remember, and Djokovic was right there with him as far as moving around the court.

Right now, you can see the difference between how Djokovic moves vs. Sinner and Alcaraz. They just have an edge on him right now. This is an edge that he used to have on all his opponents and he just doesn't have it anymore.

He's not slow, but they just seem like a step ahead of him. And on the days his shot is off, it just really shows.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:37 pm    Post subject:

LongBeachPoly wrote:
ChickenStu wrote:
LongBeachPoly wrote:
focus wrote:
It's not reminiscent of Djokovic last year being able to extend rallies with his older, not-so-fresh legs?


Not sure what ur saying.

Unless u feel Djokovic was moving very well today?

Sinner looked very fast to me. Similar to when Alcaraz looked super fast at Wimbledon.

I mean, I don’t know what the answer is. But Djokovic did look a step behind unless ur disputing that?


I think the biggest reason that he lost was because he simply couldn't get balls back, whether on the service return or just during normal rallies. He was just off in terms of ball striking all day long.


For sure. When he's hitting his shots, he's going to win.

But prime Djokovic was an athletic freak to me. I mean, Nadal was probably the most physically gifted tennis player I can remember, and Djokovic was right there with him as far as moving around the court.

Right now, you can see the difference between how Djokovic moves vs. Sinner and Alcaraz. They just have an edge on him right now. This is an edge that he used to have on all his opponents and he just doesn't have it anymore.

He's not slow, but they just seem like a step ahead of him. And on the days his shot is off, it just really shows.


We could be starting to see what happened to Serena after she won her last major, in the year or two after the gave birth that she came back to the tour. Remember, she was still really good. It's not like she fell off the face of the Earth. She could still dial up the gigantic serves, the huge forehands and backhands. But yes, the movement was not quite what it once was, and even though the serve remained big, perhaps it didn't go in quite as much, or perhaps she didn't place it quite as well, and more errors started to creep in on normal rally balls, stuff like that. She could still beat anyone in any given match, and, in fact, still got to major finals, but she just wasn't quite the same. Maybe, just maybe this is finally starting for Djoker. I still think the movement is excellent, at least for now, so I'm more concerned with a slippage in his impeccable ballstriiking skills. More errors starting to creep in, basically. Because he does rely so much on his movement/returning/defense (though not to the degree that Medvedev does), if you see even a slight slippage in terms of balls in play, your odds of beating the very best players are going to go down quite a bit. Just taking the return of serve last night as an example, it's not like Djoker was aced off the court, but I've never seen him fail to get so many good serves back in play when he clearly got his racket to the ball. (I'm not talking about when you barely get your racket to it for a clear service winner, and I'm not talking about a lack of movement to get to the return.) There were just so many serves where, yes, perhaps he was stretched a little and had to move, but he's there, the racket is there, and he just failed quite often to get the ball back in play, and he's virtually automatic at that.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:42 pm    Post subject:

^

Yup. His edge is slipping that's for sure. Before, he could actually win a grand slam without his A game. Now, that doesn't seem to be the case.

Yesterday definitely wasn't his A game and the match was not close. He never broke Sinner.

Come to think of it, I don't think he ever had even a break point.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 6:59 am    Post subject:

Sabelinka smashed but Zheng is really pretty.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 1:31 pm    Post subject:

The matches are on too early for me. Coco may be overrated.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2024 5:17 pm    Post subject:

jodeke wrote:
The matches are on too early for me. Coco may be overrated.


Nah. She hasn't even turned 20 yet. She was the only who was even in the same stratosphere as Sabalenka this tournament. No, she didn't win a set, but no one else came close to doing so, and Gauff was competitive throughout. In fact, she came back from a double-break deficit in the 1st set to end up serving for the set. Yeah, her forehand isn't the best when compared to the top, top players, but her first serve is already reaching 125 MPH (at 19!), and her backhand and movement/defense are as good as you're going to possibly get. Even if she never improves from here, she'll win multiple majors just based on the strengths that she has. And if she can improve the forehand (who knows because the grip is so Western) and 2nd serve (more likely over time, imo), she'll be all the more formidable.

I'll set the Over/Under for Coco singles majors won for her career at 5.5. In other words, she's going to the Tennis Hall of Fame one day.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2024 1:41 am    Post subject:

Medvedev is ON FIRE. He's come out and stood near the baseline while returning, something he almost never does. He's taking much more initiative during rallies, yet he's not coming close to redlining. He's serving incredible. Sinner is having to do everything he can just to stay in his service games so far. He looks surprised by Medvedev's tactics and his play. Sinner just saved a few break points to get even at 1-1 in the second set, down a set. If Medvedev keeps this up, he'll win this match. But can he? Is there enough in the tank? This is as well as I've seen him play.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2024 2:17 am    Post subject:

Medvedev won the second set 6-3 and is up 2 sets to none. He did have a nervous final service game to hold for the set, and Sinner even had a break point to get it back on serve, but he held steady and then closed out the game. Medvedev is really taking it to him in this match. He's hitting much harder tonight and Sinner is hitting slower and serving slower, too. It's like Sinner has been unnerved by Medvedev's different tactics tonight. He has to start doing something different or this match will be over in the next 45-55 minutes or so.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2024 2:59 am    Post subject:

Well, well, well! Medvedev's level started to drop midway through the third set, his first serve percentage dropped, and Sinner started timing the ball better in rallies. He broke Medvedev at 5-4 to take the set 6-4. He did look like the better player in the latter part of that third set. We play on. Only took 2 hours and 10 minutes to play 3 sets though, so it's not like this has been a physical war out there. Still, you do have to wonder about the fuel in Medvedev's tank if this goes another hour or two.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2024 3:57 am    Post subject:

The fourth set was an exact replay of the third set. Medvedev got broken at 4-5 and we're in a fifth and final set! And Sinner is -275 to win on the live betting odds. Sinner is the fresher and better player right now. Doesn't mean he will win, but he is looking like the better horse right now.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2024 12:46 pm    Post subject:

ChickenStu, was Medvedev peak level in the first two sets? Have not seen it yet. From the score, it went slightly aligned with what I thought might happen but I have not seen it yet except for parts of last two and the speeches. I thought Sinner would win. I thought he would have some initial nerves but was not sure how thoroughly it might affect his play. I thought Medvedev would want to do everything possible to win early part because of tiredness from long hours in earlier matches. It's surprising that he did a full comeback down two sets to me though, rather than split first two and lose the third, then comeback.
Sinner is a brick by brick built young player. I wondered a couple of years ago why he was not quite breaking through in big matches even against the likes of Rublev until I saw that Alcaraz Sinner US Open classic, the match of that year. Then it was like we're waiting...Alcaraz is here, Djokovic still here, Medvedev craftily circling around (even got a clay 1000), cmon Jannik join the party. And now, here he is. Not just hard court, got to semi of Wimbledon, lost in tough sets to Djokovic (wouldn't know who to pick now with that serve of his, and experience now. And of course owning Djokovic the last few months). And Sinner got to qf of French four years ago when he was 18 or 19 and I always thought his game and body was wellsuited to that surface. Coaching team deserves a lot of praise too.

This could be a most interesting season for the men, perhaps a season of change. I saw Djokovic said some things about the great sacrifice of missing his kids growing up, his daughter losing his first tooth, and how he said something about how he hopes he gets a chance to come back to Australia. That sounds like retirement thoughts creeping in, and wondering if family time that doesn't come back is worth it after all the Slams and already becoming the GOAT. Lebron has playing with his son out there as a motivating goal. Not the case for Djoker.

Then I still believe Alcaraz is the one who will come out with the best career of the postDjokovic era. It might be like a Sampras to Agassi thing with Alcaraz being considered the best, but Sinner becoming legend too and taking things away from Alcaraz. I believe both of these two, at least, will with health become legends themselves. They have the mind, game, experience, talent of course, stamina, coaching, poise, fans, and the future ahead.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2024 1:27 pm    Post subject:

^
Medvedev was sensational for the first 2 sets. He would have won in straights if he had kept up that level, even though Sinner did work his way into the match. Medvedev's tank finally started to empty in the middle of the third set. He was still running well, but the explosive movement was compromised, and when that happens, it also affects your ability to hit winners and get control of points. To his credit, Medvedev was fighting hard for every point and it's not like he lost because he got down on himself. It just looked like the long hours he had spent on the court finally caught up to him. And Sinner really was solid over the final 3 sets.
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