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lar9149
Star Player
Joined: 10 Jul 2010
Posts: 2406
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 Posted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:38 am Post subject: |
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| cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | Inspector Gadget wrote: | | So I’m curious say they find the vaccine by the end of 2020 or early 2021 would sports allow fans to get back into the games or would there be a delay until the following year? |
The answer I would give to this inspector as I simply don’t know and not sure if anyone can give a definitive answer.
First a poster above said it maybe not be widely available to the public till summer next year. I suspect it would be sooner but even if that is the case, the expected effectiveness of the vaccine is around 50 percent but some are hoping around 75 percent (see below link). What this is suppose to mean is taking the vaccine reduces you chance of getting the virus by 50 percent. Note flu vaccines effectiveness tend to be around 50 percent also.
According to a survey I recently read 2/3 of Americans would get the vaccine if it was readily available at no costs. So put this together it is possible we would still have to have some sort of public health protection and certain gatherings wouldn’t be allowed like sporting events.
But I am optimistic. There will still be advancement in treatments that should be more effective than today’s treatments as cal1 has been posting several studies. As more vaccines come out more effective ones could become available. Hopefully testing will still have advancements. There are actually self administered home tests that haven’t been implemented.
So put together a vaccine that is 50 percent effective, hopefully it can reach 70 percent or more as more vaccines come out. And maybe over time more Americans will be willing to get it as they get sick of partial lockdowns and so on.
Better treatments, better testing
Than Maybe there is a chance of sporting events of large gatherings. It is just hard to say.
https://nypost.com/2020/08/07/fauci-says-covid-19-vaccine-may-only-be-50-percent-effective/amp/ |
lar,
if it is 50%, does it mean if you get sick with covid, it will likely be less severe?
i dont mind getting the flu, but not full blown covid... |
Cal1 & inspector, I must actually put a rebuttal to the effectiveness of the vaccine Dr Fauci mentioned of about 50%. I believe it can much higher than that.
Obviously because its Dr Fauci, you have to respect his opinion..but I think he was being conservative.
The 50% effectiveness of the flu vaccine is because the flu mutates, some estimate around 4 mutations exists any given year, and the amount of antibodies the vaccine gives you among other things. In general, less mutation and more antibodies should result in a better vaccine.
The 2 below articles explain that coronavirus doesn't mutate as fast due to a proofreading enzyme that doesn't allow it to mutate as quickly. So far there are 2 mutations identified and the mutation is on the spike protein, but not the same part of the spike protein antibodies attach too..therefore, it shouldn't effect vaccine effectivity.
Additionally, the plan is for people to receive 2 shots, the 2nd one is a booster which will create even more antibodies. There is no booster for the flu vaccine.
Lastly, moderna's vaccine uses a new technology that inserts something called messagener RNA into cells and causing cells to make the spike protein part of the virus, which in turn creates antibodies. Because it doesn't inject a weakened virus nor any part of the virus, in theory, you can inject higher amounts of the vaccine..thus resulting in more antibodies.
So given the above (lack of mutation and more antibodies), it seems reasonable to believe the vaccine can be much more effective than the flu vaccine..according to the 2nd article below (in reference to the oregon clinic), the expert in charge of the trial stated he believes it would be 90% effective.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/the-coronavirus-is-mutating-just-like-most-viruses-but-the-effect-isnt-as-pronounced-as-some-headlines-suggest/ar-BB17YIZg
https://khn.org/news/with-covid-vaccine-trial-rural-oregon-clinic-steps-onto-world-stage/ |
lar
i am going to be very conservative with these rushed vaccines.
personally i am scared of the mrna based vaccine. one of my best friends from college is basically the chief science person at a small company developing one of the mrna vaccines. she tells me it is safe as the mrna will disappear but it is modified to last longer. i asked her what if the mrna somehow complexes with a protein and does not really degrade. obviously that what if is impossible to answer...
i would much prefer to take the viral protein vaccine even if it comes 6 months later.
frankly, if it is a choice between the 'dead' virus vaccines from china or the mrna vaccines, i would take the dead virus one after they had a couple months of mass use... |
I think this is a good approach and I know quite a few people that will do the same. I think we all know by now vaccine trial take 12-18 months because you should follow-up subjects for quite some time to see long-term side effects. So if the vaccine is available late this year, we won't have that information because the majority of participants in the moderna phase 3 trial just got the vaccine recently.
Good news is I think there are 'dead' virus or viral proteins vaccines that would be available here (I am unsure if China will distribute their vaccine outside their country because they already have 1.4 billion people). And as another poster mentioned, the vaccine will likely be used on healthcare workers first due to limited supply..so people like me will be guinea pigs 
So by the time the vaccine is available to the general public it seems a lot of information will be known to help people feel more comfortable taking it. |
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cal1piggy
Star Player
Joined: 19 Jul 2017
Posts: 2584
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| Posted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:23 am Post subject: |
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| lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | Inspector Gadget wrote: | | So I’m curious say they find the vaccine by the end of 2020 or early 2021 would sports allow fans to get back into the games or would there be a delay until the following year? |
The answer I would give to this inspector as I simply don’t know and not sure if anyone can give a definitive answer.
First a poster above said it maybe not be widely available to the public till summer next year. I suspect it would be sooner but even if that is the case, the expected effectiveness of the vaccine is around 50 percent but some are hoping around 75 percent (see below link). What this is suppose to mean is taking the vaccine reduces you chance of getting the virus by 50 percent. Note flu vaccines effectiveness tend to be around 50 percent also.
According to a survey I recently read 2/3 of Americans would get the vaccine if it was readily available at no costs. So put this together it is possible we would still have to have some sort of public health protection and certain gatherings wouldn’t be allowed like sporting events.
But I am optimistic. There will still be advancement in treatments that should be more effective than today’s treatments as cal1 has been posting several studies. As more vaccines come out more effective ones could become available. Hopefully testing will still have advancements. There are actually self administered home tests that haven’t been implemented.
So put together a vaccine that is 50 percent effective, hopefully it can reach 70 percent or more as more vaccines come out. And maybe over time more Americans will be willing to get it as they get sick of partial lockdowns and so on.
Better treatments, better testing
Than Maybe there is a chance of sporting events of large gatherings. It is just hard to say.
https://nypost.com/2020/08/07/fauci-says-covid-19-vaccine-may-only-be-50-percent-effective/amp/ |
lar,
if it is 50%, does it mean if you get sick with covid, it will likely be less severe?
i dont mind getting the flu, but not full blown covid... |
Cal1 & inspector, I must actually put a rebuttal to the effectiveness of the vaccine Dr Fauci mentioned of about 50%. I believe it can much higher than that.
Obviously because its Dr Fauci, you have to respect his opinion..but I think he was being conservative.
The 50% effectiveness of the flu vaccine is because the flu mutates, some estimate around 4 mutations exists any given year, and the amount of antibodies the vaccine gives you among other things. In general, less mutation and more antibodies should result in a better vaccine.
The 2 below articles explain that coronavirus doesn't mutate as fast due to a proofreading enzyme that doesn't allow it to mutate as quickly. So far there are 2 mutations identified and the mutation is on the spike protein, but not the same part of the spike protein antibodies attach too..therefore, it shouldn't effect vaccine effectivity.
Additionally, the plan is for people to receive 2 shots, the 2nd one is a booster which will create even more antibodies. There is no booster for the flu vaccine.
Lastly, moderna's vaccine uses a new technology that inserts something called messagener RNA into cells and causing cells to make the spike protein part of the virus, which in turn creates antibodies. Because it doesn't inject a weakened virus nor any part of the virus, in theory, you can inject higher amounts of the vaccine..thus resulting in more antibodies.
So given the above (lack of mutation and more antibodies), it seems reasonable to believe the vaccine can be much more effective than the flu vaccine..according to the 2nd article below (in reference to the oregon clinic), the expert in charge of the trial stated he believes it would be 90% effective.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/the-coronavirus-is-mutating-just-like-most-viruses-but-the-effect-isnt-as-pronounced-as-some-headlines-suggest/ar-BB17YIZg
https://khn.org/news/with-covid-vaccine-trial-rural-oregon-clinic-steps-onto-world-stage/ |
lar
i am going to be very conservative with these rushed vaccines.
personally i am scared of the mrna based vaccine. one of my best friends from college is basically the chief science person at a small company developing one of the mrna vaccines. she tells me it is safe as the mrna will disappear but it is modified to last longer. i asked her what if the mrna somehow complexes with a protein and does not really degrade. obviously that what if is impossible to answer...
i would much prefer to take the viral protein vaccine even if it comes 6 months later.
frankly, if it is a choice between the 'dead' virus vaccines from china or the mrna vaccines, i would take the dead virus one after they had a couple months of mass use... |
I think this is a good approach and I know quite a few people that will do the same. I think we all know by now vaccine trial take 12-18 months because you should follow-up subjects for quite some time to see long-term side effects. So if the vaccine is available late this year, we won't have that information because the majority of participants in the moderna phase 3 trial just got the vaccine recently.
Good news is I think there are 'dead' virus or viral proteins vaccines that would be available here (I am unsure if China will distribute their vaccine outside their country because they already have 1.4 billion people). And as another poster mentioned, the vaccine will likely be used on healthcare workers first due to limited supply..so people like me will be guinea pigs
So by the time the vaccine is available to the general public it seems a lot of information will be known to help people feel more comfortable taking it. |
moderna's vaccine phase 3 is going on now. how many months do you think the phase 3 would take? how many months before it would be released to the public?
same with J&J as well as the other vaccines? will they wait 3 months only? 6 months? more?
it appears many of the mrna and virus vector vaccines need -80C storage / cold chain... |
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lar9149
Star Player
Joined: 10 Jul 2010
Posts: 2406
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| Posted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:34 am Post subject: |
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| cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | Inspector Gadget wrote: | | So I’m curious say they find the vaccine by the end of 2020 or early 2021 would sports allow fans to get back into the games or would there be a delay until the following year? |
The answer I would give to this inspector as I simply don’t know and not sure if anyone can give a definitive answer.
First a poster above said it maybe not be widely available to the public till summer next year. I suspect it would be sooner but even if that is the case, the expected effectiveness of the vaccine is around 50 percent but some are hoping around 75 percent (see below link). What this is suppose to mean is taking the vaccine reduces you chance of getting the virus by 50 percent. Note flu vaccines effectiveness tend to be around 50 percent also.
According to a survey I recently read 2/3 of Americans would get the vaccine if it was readily available at no costs. So put this together it is possible we would still have to have some sort of public health protection and certain gatherings wouldn’t be allowed like sporting events.
But I am optimistic. There will still be advancement in treatments that should be more effective than today’s treatments as cal1 has been posting several studies. As more vaccines come out more effective ones could become available. Hopefully testing will still have advancements. There are actually self administered home tests that haven’t been implemented.
So put together a vaccine that is 50 percent effective, hopefully it can reach 70 percent or more as more vaccines come out. And maybe over time more Americans will be willing to get it as they get sick of partial lockdowns and so on.
Better treatments, better testing
Than Maybe there is a chance of sporting events of large gatherings. It is just hard to say.
https://nypost.com/2020/08/07/fauci-says-covid-19-vaccine-may-only-be-50-percent-effective/amp/ |
lar,
if it is 50%, does it mean if you get sick with covid, it will likely be less severe?
i dont mind getting the flu, but not full blown covid... |
Cal1 & inspector, I must actually put a rebuttal to the effectiveness of the vaccine Dr Fauci mentioned of about 50%. I believe it can much higher than that.
Obviously because its Dr Fauci, you have to respect his opinion..but I think he was being conservative.
The 50% effectiveness of the flu vaccine is because the flu mutates, some estimate around 4 mutations exists any given year, and the amount of antibodies the vaccine gives you among other things. In general, less mutation and more antibodies should result in a better vaccine.
The 2 below articles explain that coronavirus doesn't mutate as fast due to a proofreading enzyme that doesn't allow it to mutate as quickly. So far there are 2 mutations identified and the mutation is on the spike protein, but not the same part of the spike protein antibodies attach too..therefore, it shouldn't effect vaccine effectivity.
Additionally, the plan is for people to receive 2 shots, the 2nd one is a booster which will create even more antibodies. There is no booster for the flu vaccine.
Lastly, moderna's vaccine uses a new technology that inserts something called messagener RNA into cells and causing cells to make the spike protein part of the virus, which in turn creates antibodies. Because it doesn't inject a weakened virus nor any part of the virus, in theory, you can inject higher amounts of the vaccine..thus resulting in more antibodies.
So given the above (lack of mutation and more antibodies), it seems reasonable to believe the vaccine can be much more effective than the flu vaccine..according to the 2nd article below (in reference to the oregon clinic), the expert in charge of the trial stated he believes it would be 90% effective.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/the-coronavirus-is-mutating-just-like-most-viruses-but-the-effect-isnt-as-pronounced-as-some-headlines-suggest/ar-BB17YIZg
https://khn.org/news/with-covid-vaccine-trial-rural-oregon-clinic-steps-onto-world-stage/ |
lar
i am going to be very conservative with these rushed vaccines.
personally i am scared of the mrna based vaccine. one of my best friends from college is basically the chief science person at a small company developing one of the mrna vaccines. she tells me it is safe as the mrna will disappear but it is modified to last longer. i asked her what if the mrna somehow complexes with a protein and does not really degrade. obviously that what if is impossible to answer...
i would much prefer to take the viral protein vaccine even if it comes 6 months later.
frankly, if it is a choice between the 'dead' virus vaccines from china or the mrna vaccines, i would take the dead virus one after they had a couple months of mass use... |
I think this is a good approach and I know quite a few people that will do the same. I think we all know by now vaccine trial take 12-18 months because you should follow-up subjects for quite some time to see long-term side effects. So if the vaccine is available late this year, we won't have that information because the majority of participants in the moderna phase 3 trial just got the vaccine recently.
Good news is I think there are 'dead' virus or viral proteins vaccines that would be available here (I am unsure if China will distribute their vaccine outside their country because they already have 1.4 billion people). And as another poster mentioned, the vaccine will likely be used on healthcare workers first due to limited supply..so people like me will be guinea pigs
So by the time the vaccine is available to the general public it seems a lot of information will be known to help people feel more comfortable taking it. |
moderna's vaccine phase 3 is going on now. how many months do you think the phase 3 would take? how many months before it would be released to the public?
same with J&J as well as the other vaccines? will they wait 3 months only? 6 months? more?
it appears many of the mrna and virus vector vaccines need -80C storage / cold chain... |
Moderna claims they will know if it is effective by the end of this year..meaning there will be 3-4 months of data from phase 3..so the long-term effects will not be known. And phase 3 is suppose to follow-up subjects for a total of 2 years. So at that time phase 3 will not be complete.
But it is ultimately up to the FDA to decide when to make available to the general public. We already know the FDA gave the vaccine Fast Track designation. Below link kind of explains this designation but basically it allows the company more access to the FDA for review to get the drug approved faster.
It also allows for accelerated approval of the vaccine..meaning if the FDA feels the benefit to the public is high enough (for example, say it is above 90% effective, side effects are rare)..the FDA can approve the vaccine before phase 3 is complete. Note in this situation the FDA wouldn't know about long-term side effects..but they may feel more confident that if short-term side effects are rare, long-term side effects, at least severe ones, are unlikely.
So there is some possibility for the vaccine to come to the general market earlier..it depends on risk versus benefit.
the -80C storage temperature I am thinking isn't a problem here. Flu vaccine get stored at a normal refrigerator temperature..but I think a lot of facilities, at least bigger ones, are setup to store at the lower temp of these vaccines also..but perhaps when reaching and shipping to different parts of the world, it could be difficult.
https://audetlaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/ucm128291.htm#:~:text=Eligibility%20for%20Accelerated%20Approval%20and%20Priority%20Review%2C%20if,completed%20before%20the%20entire%20application%20can%20be%20reviewed. |
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cal1piggy
Star Player
Joined: 19 Jul 2017
Posts: 2584
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| Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | Inspector Gadget wrote: | | So I’m curious say they find the vaccine by the end of 2020 or early 2021 would sports allow fans to get back into the games or would there be a delay until the following year? |
The answer I would give to this inspector as I simply don’t know and not sure if anyone can give a definitive answer.
First a poster above said it maybe not be widely available to the public till summer next year. I suspect it would be sooner but even if that is the case, the expected effectiveness of the vaccine is around 50 percent but some are hoping around 75 percent (see below link). What this is suppose to mean is taking the vaccine reduces you chance of getting the virus by 50 percent. Note flu vaccines effectiveness tend to be around 50 percent also.
According to a survey I recently read 2/3 of Americans would get the vaccine if it was readily available at no costs. So put this together it is possible we would still have to have some sort of public health protection and certain gatherings wouldn’t be allowed like sporting events.
But I am optimistic. There will still be advancement in treatments that should be more effective than today’s treatments as cal1 has been posting several studies. As more vaccines come out more effective ones could become available. Hopefully testing will still have advancements. There are actually self administered home tests that haven’t been implemented.
So put together a vaccine that is 50 percent effective, hopefully it can reach 70 percent or more as more vaccines come out. And maybe over time more Americans will be willing to get it as they get sick of partial lockdowns and so on.
Better treatments, better testing
Than Maybe there is a chance of sporting events of large gatherings. It is just hard to say.
https://nypost.com/2020/08/07/fauci-says-covid-19-vaccine-may-only-be-50-percent-effective/amp/ |
lar,
if it is 50%, does it mean if you get sick with covid, it will likely be less severe?
i dont mind getting the flu, but not full blown covid... |
Cal1 & inspector, I must actually put a rebuttal to the effectiveness of the vaccine Dr Fauci mentioned of about 50%. I believe it can much higher than that.
Obviously because its Dr Fauci, you have to respect his opinion..but I think he was being conservative.
The 50% effectiveness of the flu vaccine is because the flu mutates, some estimate around 4 mutations exists any given year, and the amount of antibodies the vaccine gives you among other things. In general, less mutation and more antibodies should result in a better vaccine.
The 2 below articles explain that coronavirus doesn't mutate as fast due to a proofreading enzyme that doesn't allow it to mutate as quickly. So far there are 2 mutations identified and the mutation is on the spike protein, but not the same part of the spike protein antibodies attach too..therefore, it shouldn't effect vaccine effectivity.
Additionally, the plan is for people to receive 2 shots, the 2nd one is a booster which will create even more antibodies. There is no booster for the flu vaccine.
Lastly, moderna's vaccine uses a new technology that inserts something called messagener RNA into cells and causing cells to make the spike protein part of the virus, which in turn creates antibodies. Because it doesn't inject a weakened virus nor any part of the virus, in theory, you can inject higher amounts of the vaccine..thus resulting in more antibodies.
So given the above (lack of mutation and more antibodies), it seems reasonable to believe the vaccine can be much more effective than the flu vaccine..according to the 2nd article below (in reference to the oregon clinic), the expert in charge of the trial stated he believes it would be 90% effective.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/the-coronavirus-is-mutating-just-like-most-viruses-but-the-effect-isnt-as-pronounced-as-some-headlines-suggest/ar-BB17YIZg
https://khn.org/news/with-covid-vaccine-trial-rural-oregon-clinic-steps-onto-world-stage/ |
lar
i am going to be very conservative with these rushed vaccines.
personally i am scared of the mrna based vaccine. one of my best friends from college is basically the chief science person at a small company developing one of the mrna vaccines. she tells me it is safe as the mrna will disappear but it is modified to last longer. i asked her what if the mrna somehow complexes with a protein and does not really degrade. obviously that what if is impossible to answer...
i would much prefer to take the viral protein vaccine even if it comes 6 months later.
frankly, if it is a choice between the 'dead' virus vaccines from china or the mrna vaccines, i would take the dead virus one after they had a couple months of mass use... |
I think this is a good approach and I know quite a few people that will do the same. I think we all know by now vaccine trial take 12-18 months because you should follow-up subjects for quite some time to see long-term side effects. So if the vaccine is available late this year, we won't have that information because the majority of participants in the moderna phase 3 trial just got the vaccine recently.
Good news is I think there are 'dead' virus or viral proteins vaccines that would be available here (I am unsure if China will distribute their vaccine outside their country because they already have 1.4 billion people). And as another poster mentioned, the vaccine will likely be used on healthcare workers first due to limited supply..so people like me will be guinea pigs
So by the time the vaccine is available to the general public it seems a lot of information will be known to help people feel more comfortable taking it. |
moderna's vaccine phase 3 is going on now. how many months do you think the phase 3 would take? how many months before it would be released to the public?
same with J&J as well as the other vaccines? will they wait 3 months only? 6 months? more?
it appears many of the mrna and virus vector vaccines need -80C storage / cold chain... |
Moderna claims they will know if it is effective by the end of this year..meaning there will be 3-4 months of data from phase 3..so the long-term effects will not be known. And phase 3 is suppose to follow-up subjects for a total of 2 years. So at that time phase 3 will not be complete.
But it is ultimately up to the FDA to decide when to make available to the general public. We already know the FDA gave the vaccine Fast Track designation. Below link kind of explains this designation but basically it allows the company more access to the FDA for review to get the drug approved faster.
It also allows for accelerated approval of the vaccine..meaning if the FDA feels the benefit to the public is high enough (for example, say it is above 90% effective, side effects are rare)..the FDA can approve the vaccine before phase 3 is complete. Note in this situation the FDA wouldn't know about long-term side effects..but they may feel more confident that if short-term side effects are rare, long-term side effects, at least severe ones, are unlikely.
So there is some possibility for the vaccine to come to the general market earlier..it depends on risk versus benefit.
the -80C storage temperature I am thinking isn't a problem here. Flu vaccine get stored at a normal refrigerator temperature..but I think a lot of facilities, at least bigger ones, are setup to store at the lower temp of these vaccines also..but perhaps when reaching and shipping to different parts of the world, it could be difficult.
https://audetlaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/ucm128291.htm#:~:text=Eligibility%20for%20Accelerated%20Approval%20and%20Priority%20Review%2C%20if,completed%20before%20the%20entire%20application%20can%20be%20reviewed. |
wow i did not realize the long term effects are studied for years...
do pharmacies have -80C storage? i figured pharmacies were going to be important. |
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lar9149
Star Player
Joined: 10 Jul 2010
Posts: 2406
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| Posted: Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:15 pm Post subject: |
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| cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | Inspector Gadget wrote: | | So I’m curious say they find the vaccine by the end of 2020 or early 2021 would sports allow fans to get back into the games or would there be a delay until the following year? |
The answer I would give to this inspector as I simply don’t know and not sure if anyone can give a definitive answer.
First a poster above said it maybe not be widely available to the public till summer next year. I suspect it would be sooner but even if that is the case, the expected effectiveness of the vaccine is around 50 percent but some are hoping around 75 percent (see below link). What this is suppose to mean is taking the vaccine reduces you chance of getting the virus by 50 percent. Note flu vaccines effectiveness tend to be around 50 percent also.
According to a survey I recently read 2/3 of Americans would get the vaccine if it was readily available at no costs. So put this together it is possible we would still have to have some sort of public health protection and certain gatherings wouldn’t be allowed like sporting events.
But I am optimistic. There will still be advancement in treatments that should be more effective than today’s treatments as cal1 has been posting several studies. As more vaccines come out more effective ones could become available. Hopefully testing will still have advancements. There are actually self administered home tests that haven’t been implemented.
So put together a vaccine that is 50 percent effective, hopefully it can reach 70 percent or more as more vaccines come out. And maybe over time more Americans will be willing to get it as they get sick of partial lockdowns and so on.
Better treatments, better testing
Than Maybe there is a chance of sporting events of large gatherings. It is just hard to say.
https://nypost.com/2020/08/07/fauci-says-covid-19-vaccine-may-only-be-50-percent-effective/amp/ |
lar,
if it is 50%, does it mean if you get sick with covid, it will likely be less severe?
i dont mind getting the flu, but not full blown covid... |
Cal1 & inspector, I must actually put a rebuttal to the effectiveness of the vaccine Dr Fauci mentioned of about 50%. I believe it can much higher than that.
Obviously because its Dr Fauci, you have to respect his opinion..but I think he was being conservative.
The 50% effectiveness of the flu vaccine is because the flu mutates, some estimate around 4 mutations exists any given year, and the amount of antibodies the vaccine gives you among other things. In general, less mutation and more antibodies should result in a better vaccine.
The 2 below articles explain that coronavirus doesn't mutate as fast due to a proofreading enzyme that doesn't allow it to mutate as quickly. So far there are 2 mutations identified and the mutation is on the spike protein, but not the same part of the spike protein antibodies attach too..therefore, it shouldn't effect vaccine effectivity.
Additionally, the plan is for people to receive 2 shots, the 2nd one is a booster which will create even more antibodies. There is no booster for the flu vaccine.
Lastly, moderna's vaccine uses a new technology that inserts something called messagener RNA into cells and causing cells to make the spike protein part of the virus, which in turn creates antibodies. Because it doesn't inject a weakened virus nor any part of the virus, in theory, you can inject higher amounts of the vaccine..thus resulting in more antibodies.
So given the above (lack of mutation and more antibodies), it seems reasonable to believe the vaccine can be much more effective than the flu vaccine..according to the 2nd article below (in reference to the oregon clinic), the expert in charge of the trial stated he believes it would be 90% effective.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/the-coronavirus-is-mutating-just-like-most-viruses-but-the-effect-isnt-as-pronounced-as-some-headlines-suggest/ar-BB17YIZg
https://khn.org/news/with-covid-vaccine-trial-rural-oregon-clinic-steps-onto-world-stage/ |
lar
i am going to be very conservative with these rushed vaccines.
personally i am scared of the mrna based vaccine. one of my best friends from college is basically the chief science person at a small company developing one of the mrna vaccines. she tells me it is safe as the mrna will disappear but it is modified to last longer. i asked her what if the mrna somehow complexes with a protein and does not really degrade. obviously that what if is impossible to answer...
i would much prefer to take the viral protein vaccine even if it comes 6 months later.
frankly, if it is a choice between the 'dead' virus vaccines from china or the mrna vaccines, i would take the dead virus one after they had a couple months of mass use... |
I think this is a good approach and I know quite a few people that will do the same. I think we all know by now vaccine trial take 12-18 months because you should follow-up subjects for quite some time to see long-term side effects. So if the vaccine is available late this year, we won't have that information because the majority of participants in the moderna phase 3 trial just got the vaccine recently.
Good news is I think there are 'dead' virus or viral proteins vaccines that would be available here (I am unsure if China will distribute their vaccine outside their country because they already have 1.4 billion people). And as another poster mentioned, the vaccine will likely be used on healthcare workers first due to limited supply..so people like me will be guinea pigs
So by the time the vaccine is available to the general public it seems a lot of information will be known to help people feel more comfortable taking it. |
moderna's vaccine phase 3 is going on now. how many months do you think the phase 3 would take? how many months before it would be released to the public?
same with J&J as well as the other vaccines? will they wait 3 months only? 6 months? more?
it appears many of the mrna and virus vector vaccines need -80C storage / cold chain... |
Moderna claims they will know if it is effective by the end of this year..meaning there will be 3-4 months of data from phase 3..so the long-term effects will not be known. And phase 3 is suppose to follow-up subjects for a total of 2 years. So at that time phase 3 will not be complete.
But it is ultimately up to the FDA to decide when to make available to the general public. We already know the FDA gave the vaccine Fast Track designation. Below link kind of explains this designation but basically it allows the company more access to the FDA for review to get the drug approved faster.
It also allows for accelerated approval of the vaccine..meaning if the FDA feels the benefit to the public is high enough (for example, say it is above 90% effective, side effects are rare)..the FDA can approve the vaccine before phase 3 is complete. Note in this situation the FDA wouldn't know about long-term side effects..but they may feel more confident that if short-term side effects are rare, long-term side effects, at least severe ones, are unlikely.
So there is some possibility for the vaccine to come to the general market earlier..it depends on risk versus benefit.
the -80C storage temperature I am thinking isn't a problem here. Flu vaccine get stored at a normal refrigerator temperature..but I think a lot of facilities, at least bigger ones, are setup to store at the lower temp of these vaccines also..but perhaps when reaching and shipping to different parts of the world, it could be difficult.
https://audetlaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/ucm128291.htm#:~:text=Eligibility%20for%20Accelerated%20Approval%20and%20Priority%20Review%2C%20if,completed%20before%20the%20entire%20application%20can%20be%20reviewed. |
wow i did not realize the long term effects are studied for years...
do pharmacies have -80C storage? i figured pharmacies were going to be important. |
Hmm. I don’t actually know. Good question I would normally think it’s a not a problem. Pharmacies do give the flu vaccine but again the flu vaccine is stored aT normal refrigerator temperature. Otherwise they aren’t involved in administering other vaccines
But I can see with the possible large demand for the Covid vaccine once it’s out to the general public, local pharmacies like CVS would be important to help meet demand. So it would be important if pharmacies can store vaccines at -80 |
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cal1piggy
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| Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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| lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | | lar9149 wrote: | | Inspector Gadget wrote: | | So I’m curious say they find the vaccine by the end of 2020 or early 2021 would sports allow fans to get back into the games or would there be a delay until the following year? |
The answer I would give to this inspector as I simply don’t know and not sure if anyone can give a definitive answer.
First a poster above said it maybe not be widely available to the public till summer next year. I suspect it would be sooner but even if that is the case, the expected effectiveness of the vaccine is around 50 percent but some are hoping around 75 percent (see below link). What this is suppose to mean is taking the vaccine reduces you chance of getting the virus by 50 percent. Note flu vaccines effectiveness tend to be around 50 percent also.
According to a survey I recently read 2/3 of Americans would get the vaccine if it was readily available at no costs. So put this together it is possible we would still have to have some sort of public health protection and certain gatherings wouldn’t be allowed like sporting events.
But I am optimistic. There will still be advancement in treatments that should be more effective than today’s treatments as cal1 has been posting several studies. As more vaccines come out more effective ones could become available. Hopefully testing will still have advancements. There are actually self administered home tests that haven’t been implemented.
So put together a vaccine that is 50 percent effective, hopefully it can reach 70 percent or more as more vaccines come out. And maybe over time more Americans will be willing to get it as they get sick of partial lockdowns and so on.
Better treatments, better testing
Than Maybe there is a chance of sporting events of large gatherings. It is just hard to say.
https://nypost.com/2020/08/07/fauci-says-covid-19-vaccine-may-only-be-50-percent-effective/amp/ |
lar,
if it is 50%, does it mean if you get sick with covid, it will likely be less severe?
i dont mind getting the flu, but not full blown covid... |
Cal1 & inspector, I must actually put a rebuttal to the effectiveness of the vaccine Dr Fauci mentioned of about 50%. I believe it can much higher than that.
Obviously because its Dr Fauci, you have to respect his opinion..but I think he was being conservative.
The 50% effectiveness of the flu vaccine is because the flu mutates, some estimate around 4 mutations exists any given year, and the amount of antibodies the vaccine gives you among other things. In general, less mutation and more antibodies should result in a better vaccine.
The 2 below articles explain that coronavirus doesn't mutate as fast due to a proofreading enzyme that doesn't allow it to mutate as quickly. So far there are 2 mutations identified and the mutation is on the spike protein, but not the same part of the spike protein antibodies attach too..therefore, it shouldn't effect vaccine effectivity.
Additionally, the plan is for people to receive 2 shots, the 2nd one is a booster which will create even more antibodies. There is no booster for the flu vaccine.
Lastly, moderna's vaccine uses a new technology that inserts something called messagener RNA into cells and causing cells to make the spike protein part of the virus, which in turn creates antibodies. Because it doesn't inject a weakened virus nor any part of the virus, in theory, you can inject higher amounts of the vaccine..thus resulting in more antibodies.
So given the above (lack of mutation and more antibodies), it seems reasonable to believe the vaccine can be much more effective than the flu vaccine..according to the 2nd article below (in reference to the oregon clinic), the expert in charge of the trial stated he believes it would be 90% effective.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/the-coronavirus-is-mutating-just-like-most-viruses-but-the-effect-isnt-as-pronounced-as-some-headlines-suggest/ar-BB17YIZg
https://khn.org/news/with-covid-vaccine-trial-rural-oregon-clinic-steps-onto-world-stage/ |
lar
i am going to be very conservative with these rushed vaccines.
personally i am scared of the mrna based vaccine. one of my best friends from college is basically the chief science person at a small company developing one of the mrna vaccines. she tells me it is safe as the mrna will disappear but it is modified to last longer. i asked her what if the mrna somehow complexes with a protein and does not really degrade. obviously that what if is impossible to answer...
i would much prefer to take the viral protein vaccine even if it comes 6 months later.
frankly, if it is a choice between the 'dead' virus vaccines from china or the mrna vaccines, i would take the dead virus one after they had a couple months of mass use... |
I think this is a good approach and I know quite a few people that will do the same. I think we all know by now vaccine trial take 12-18 months because you should follow-up subjects for quite some time to see long-term side effects. So if the vaccine is available late this year, we won't have that information because the majority of participants in the moderna phase 3 trial just got the vaccine recently.
Good news is I think there are 'dead' virus or viral proteins vaccines that would be available here (I am unsure if China will distribute their vaccine outside their country because they already have 1.4 billion people). And as another poster mentioned, the vaccine will likely be used on healthcare workers first due to limited supply..so people like me will be guinea pigs
So by the time the vaccine is available to the general public it seems a lot of information will be known to help people feel more comfortable taking it. |
moderna's vaccine phase 3 is going on now. how many months do you think the phase 3 would take? how many months before it would be released to the public?
same with J&J as well as the other vaccines? will they wait 3 months only? 6 months? more?
it appears many of the mrna and virus vector vaccines need -80C storage / cold chain... |
Moderna claims they will know if it is effective by the end of this year..meaning there will be 3-4 months of data from phase 3..so the long-term effects will not be known. And phase 3 is suppose to follow-up subjects for a total of 2 years. So at that time phase 3 will not be complete.
But it is ultimately up to the FDA to decide when to make available to the general public. We already know the FDA gave the vaccine Fast Track designation. Below link kind of explains this designation but basically it allows the company more access to the FDA for review to get the drug approved faster.
It also allows for accelerated approval of the vaccine..meaning if the FDA feels the benefit to the public is high enough (for example, say it is above 90% effective, side effects are rare)..the FDA can approve the vaccine before phase 3 is complete. Note in this situation the FDA wouldn't know about long-term side effects..but they may feel more confident that if short-term side effects are rare, long-term side effects, at least severe ones, are unlikely.
So there is some possibility for the vaccine to come to the general market earlier..it depends on risk versus benefit.
the -80C storage temperature I am thinking isn't a problem here. Flu vaccine get stored at a normal refrigerator temperature..but I think a lot of facilities, at least bigger ones, are setup to store at the lower temp of these vaccines also..but perhaps when reaching and shipping to different parts of the world, it could be difficult.
https://audetlaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/ucm128291.htm#:~:text=Eligibility%20for%20Accelerated%20Approval%20and%20Priority%20Review%2C%20if,completed%20before%20the%20entire%20application%20can%20be%20reviewed. |
wow i did not realize the long term effects are studied for years...
do pharmacies have -80C storage? i figured pharmacies were going to be important. |
Hmm. I don’t actually know. Good question I would normally think it’s a not a problem. Pharmacies do give the flu vaccine but again the flu vaccine is stored aT normal refrigerator temperature. Otherwise they aren’t involved in administering other vaccines
But I can see with the possible large demand for the Covid vaccine once it’s out to the general public, local pharmacies like CVS would be important to help meet demand. So it would be important if pharmacies can store vaccines at -80 |
lar
yes the storage temp for flu vaccine is 2C to 8C vs. -80C expected for the earlier covid vaccines
many vaccines are stored from 2C to 8C.
chicken pox, mmrv and herpes are stored at -50C to -15C.
not sure why covid vaccine mostly needs -80C
the only vaccine i have seen requiring -80C is the experimental ebola vaccine.
that caused a lot of problems for africa... |
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lar9149
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Posts: 2406
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| Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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Hi all, just wanted to share below article regarding Covid-19 Vaccine..indicates Vaccine maybe available to certain groups late October to Early November
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/health/covid-19-vaccine-cdc-plans.html
vaccine may be available for certain groups before clinical trials have been completed, if the data is overwhelmingly positive.
The C.D.C. plans lay out technical specifications for two candidates described as Vaccine A and Vaccine B, including requirements for shipping, mixing, storage and administration. The details seem to match the products developed by Pfizer and Moderna, which are the furthest along in late-stage clinical trials. On Aug. 20, Pfizer said it was “on track” for seeking government review “as early as October 2020.” |
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cal1piggy
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Joined: 19 Jul 2017
Posts: 2584
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| Posted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:19 pm Post subject: |
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| lar9149 wrote: | Hi all, just wanted to share below article regarding Covid-19 Vaccine..indicates Vaccine maybe available to certain groups late October to Early November
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/health/covid-19-vaccine-cdc-plans.html
vaccine may be available for certain groups before clinical trials have been completed, if the data is overwhelmingly positive.
The C.D.C. plans lay out technical specifications for two candidates described as Vaccine A and Vaccine B, including requirements for shipping, mixing, storage and administration. The details seem to match the products developed by Pfizer and Moderna, which are the furthest along in late-stage clinical trials. On Aug. 20, Pfizer said it was “on track” for seeking government review “as early as October 2020.” |
hi lar
good to see and another 30% of population or so getting antibodies would make a big difference in transmission.
but i personally will not take a mRNA vaccine or the vaccine made of live modified virus... |
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Laker4lifer4real
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Joined: 15 Jul 2017
Posts: 3486
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| Posted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Hopefully they set up protocols to have people take a rapid antibody test before getting the vaccine. If doses of the vaccine are limited in the beginning, why give it to those who have already beat the virus? |
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cal1piggy
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Joined: 19 Jul 2017
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cal1piggy
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Joined: 19 Jul 2017
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cal1piggy
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cal1piggy
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| Posted: Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:33 pm Post subject: |
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early data promising for regeneron antibody cocktail treatment
"The greatest improvements were seen in patients who hadn't already mounted a natural response to the infection, the company said.
The results only involve 275 patients of the 1,000 they have enrolled in this particular trial, but appear "very promising," Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, the director of the division of infectious diseases at University of Alabama at Birmingham, told CNN."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/29/health/regeneron-covid-19-early-antibody-treatment-results/index.html |
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cal1piggy
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| Posted: Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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as expected - trump getting regeneron antibody cocktail:
"He said Trump had been administered a Regeneron polyclonal antibody cocktail and has been taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin and a daily aspirin.
The decision to give Trump an experimental monoclonal antibody cocktail illustrates how concerned the White House may be about his Covid-19 diagnosis, Dr. Jonathan Reiner, CNN medical analyst and professor at George Washington University, told CNN on Friday."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/02/politics/president-donald-trump-walter-reed-coronavirus/index.html |
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lar9149
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| Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 7:17 am Post subject: |
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Hello all,
This trend hasn't been updated for a while, but felt it important to deliver the really good news below
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biontech-and-pfizer-say-their-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-is-90-effective-2020-11-09
BioNTech and Pfizer say their COVID-19 vaccine candidate is 90% effective
Note: White house experts like Dr Fauci were expecting a 50% effective vaccine (like the flu vaccine) and many experts were hoping for 70% effective vaccine.
Therefore, greater than 90% is way above expectations. Many experts also think a vaccine of that effectiveness should end the pandemic assuming the antibodies are long lasting (not known yet). If it was less effective like 70 percent, likely some restrictive measures would still be needed especially the gatherings of large crowds in stadiums.
Both companies use a new technology called messenger RNA vaccines. Moderna is also another company that produces the same type of vaccine. Although their phase 3 results haven’t been shared we could expect similar results and perhaps even better as the Chief Medical Officer has mentioned their vaccine is easier to distribute since it can be stored at room temperature for 2 weeks while the vaccines above need to be at much colder temperatures.
As far as distrubution:
The companies also said they expect to have enough safety data by the third week of November to submit an application to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for an emergency use authorization, which is a type of regulatory approval that is quicker and less rigorous than a full FDA approval. However, emergency authorization is considered an important tool to bring to market vaccines and COVID-19 treatments during the pandemic.
Therefore we could expect some distribution before the end of the year, but this likely will be limited since not enough quantity wound be available yet. It seems the likeihood of public distribution seems to be in Spring 2021.
Overall, this could mean seeing the NBA playoffs in a NBA stadium and hopefully for us Laker fans, Staples center
Last edited by lar9149 on Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:57 am; edited 1 time in total |
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cal1piggy
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| Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:15 pm Post subject: |
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this eli lilly drug is not the same monoclonal antibody that trump got (regeneron). looks good. they can have 1 million doses by the end of the year but unfortunately probably not nearly enough. in a separate study, it did not work well with more serious cases.
from: FDA gives emergency OK to Lilly's antibody treatment for Covid-19
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/health/lilly-coronavirus-monoclonal-fda-eua/index.html
"The US Food and Drug Administration said Monday it had issued an emergency use authorization for Eli Lilly and Co's monoclonal antibody therapy to treat mild to moderate coronavirus infections in adults and children.
The single antibody treatment, called bamlanivimab, must be infused in a hospital or other health care setting. It is the first monoclonal antibody to be authorized for use in treating coronavirus. The idea is to kick-start an immune response against infection.
The Phase 2 trial involved 452 patients, some who received the treatment and some who got a placebo, which does nothing. Only 1.6% of patients given the treatment had symptoms progress enough that they had to be hospitalized or seek care at the emergency room. For patients who got the placebo, the rate of hospitalization was 6.3%.
Lilly announced it had struck a $375 million deal with the government for 300,000 vials of the antibody treatment, pending EUA, to be delivered in the two months after. Lilly applied for EUA in October. The company said it planned to have 100,000 doses ready to ship within days and would manufacture a million doses by the end of 2020. The treatment would be provided to patients at no cost." |
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cal1piggy
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| Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:53 am Post subject: |
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vaccines close to becoming available
1. pfizer - mRNA technology
2. moderna - mRNA technology
3. astrozenca - live virus platform technology
4. merck - live virus platform technology
5. johnson & johnson - live virus platform technology
6. glaxosmithkline - viral protein technology
7. novovax - viral protein technology
mRNA - new technology injects genetic material into body. the mRNA takes over some cells to make them produce viral proteins. the body forms antibodies that attacks those proteins. this is really amazing technology but i do not believe it has been used in a high volume vaccine before.
live virus platform technology - genetically modified virus injects genetic material into some cells to take over their protein making. the cells that are taken over produce viral proteins. the body produces antibodies that attack these proteins. this is also amazing technology but i believe the ebola vaccine was the first time this type ofpro technology has been used in a high volume vaccine. different virus are chosen, and i believe virus that humans are generally not exposed to are chosen. that is because you dont want the body to have antibodies that would attack the virus so it can take over enough cells to produce enough viral proteins that illicit the immune response.
viral protein technology - injects proteins that cause immune reaction to generate antibodies. this is well proven technology used for flu vaccines.
mRNA vaccines will be available first. the immune response from pfizer and moderna vaccines have shown over 90% response in phase 3 trials.
live virus platform vaccines would be next. not sure exactly when yet. johnson & johnson vaccine recently entered stage 3 trials. astrozeneca vaccine showing 70-90% response.
viral protein vaccines would probably be last and be available around june. smithglaxokline vaccine just entering phase 2/3 trial.
a good article: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/24/health/covid-vaccines-design-explained/index.html
personally, if i am in a job where i am exposed to lots of people or elder/preexisting conditions, i would take the astrozeneca vaccine if i am able to get it. would prefer to avoid the mRNA vaccine because no long term data.
i actually would wait for the viral protein vaccines that will need a few more months. i dont go into crowded conditions, and if needed, have access to n95 type protection systems that can be used for hours reasonably comfortably when i have to get on a plane.
Last edited by cal1piggy on Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:35 am; edited 1 time in total |
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ThePageDude
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Posts: 2607
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| Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:10 am Post subject: |
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| cal1piggy wrote: | this eli lilly drug is not the same monoclonal antibody that trump got (regeneron). looks good. they can have 1 million doses by the end of the year but unfortunately probably not nearly enough. in a separate study, it did not work well with more serious cases.
from: FDA gives emergency OK to Lilly's antibody treatment for Covid-19
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/09/health/lilly-coronavirus-monoclonal-fda-eua/index.html
"The US Food and Drug Administration said Monday it had issued an emergency use authorization for Eli Lilly and Co's monoclonal antibody therapy to treat mild to moderate coronavirus infections in adults and children.
The single antibody treatment, called bamlanivimab, must be infused in a hospital or other health care setting. It is the first monoclonal antibody to be authorized for use in treating coronavirus. The idea is to kick-start an immune response against infection.
The Phase 2 trial involved 452 patients, some who received the treatment and some who got a placebo, which does nothing. Only 1.6% of patients given the treatment had symptoms progress enough that they had to be hospitalized or seek care at the emergency room. For patients who got the placebo, the rate of hospitalization was 6.3%.
Lilly announced it had struck a $375 million deal with the government for 300,000 vials of the antibody treatment, pending EUA, to be delivered in the two months after. Lilly applied for EUA in October. The company said it planned to have 100,000 doses ready to ship within days and would manufacture a million doses by the end of 2020. The treatment would be provided to patients at no cost." |
It is indeed very exciting, but it does pose some challenges
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/10/933444237/fda-oks-eli-lilly-covid-19-drug-but-supplies-will-be-limited
Nonetheless, every arrow in the quiver is needed at this time. |
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lar9149
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Joined: 10 Jul 2010
Posts: 2406
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| Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:38 am Post subject: |
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| cal1piggy wrote: | vaccines close to becoming available
1. pfizer - mRNA technology
2. moderna - mRNA technology
3. astrozenca - live virus platform technology
4. merck - live virus platform technology
5. johnson & johnson - live virus platform technology
6. glaxosmithkline - viral protein technology
7. novovax - viral protein technology
mRNA - new technology injects genetic material into body. the mRNA takes over some cells to make them produce viral proteins. the body forms antibodies that attacks those proteins. this is really amazing technology but i do not believe it has been used in a high volume vaccine before.
live virus platform technology - genetically modified virus injects genetic material into some cells to take over their protein making. the cells that are taken over produce viral proteins. the body produces antibodies that attack these proteins. this is also amazing technology but i believe the ebola vaccine was the first time this type ofpro technology has been used in a high volume vaccine. different virus are chosen, and i believe virus that humans are generally not exposed to are chosen. that is because you dont want the body to have antibodies that would attack the virus so it can take over enough cells to produce enough viral proteins that illicit the immune response.
viral protein technology - injects proteins that cause immune reaction to generate antibodies. this is well proven technology used for flu vaccines.
mRNA vaccines will be available first. the immune response from pfizer and moderna vaccines have shown over 90% response in phase 3 trials.
live virus platform vaccines would be next. not sure exactly when yet. johnson & johnson vaccine recently entered stage 3 trials. astrozeneca vaccine showing 70-90% response.
viral protein vaccines would probably be last and be available around june. smithglaxokline vaccine just entering phase 2/3 trial.
a good article: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/24/health/covid-vaccines-design-explained/index.html
personally, if i am in a job where i am exposed to lots of people or elder/preexisting conditions, i would take the astrozeneca vaccine if i am able to get it. would prefer to avoid the mRNA vaccine because no long term data.
i actually would wait for the viral protein vaccines that will need a few more months. i dont go into crowded conditions, and if needed, have access to n95 type protection systems that can be used for hours reasonably comfortably when i have to get on a plane. |
Interesting enough Cal1 as far as choosing vaccines, I spoken to the Chief Medical Officer where at work and they are anticipating a vaccine for health care workers around Mid December
But the vaccine is going to Pfizer's..remember Pfizer is the one that has to be stored at ultracool temperatures and it seems that Health Care facilities should have an easier time dealing with this.
so it looks like if you are in Health Care, the choice is chosen for you..although as you know, I have favored the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines so I have no issue with it. |
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cal1piggy
Star Player
Joined: 19 Jul 2017
Posts: 2584
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| Posted: Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:06 pm Post subject: |
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| lar9149 wrote: | | cal1piggy wrote: | vaccines close to becoming available
1. pfizer - mRNA technology
2. moderna - mRNA technology
3. astrozenca - live virus platform technology
4. merck - live virus platform technology
5. johnson & johnson - live virus platform technology
6. glaxosmithkline - viral protein technology
7. novovax - viral protein technology
mRNA - new technology injects genetic material into body. the mRNA takes over some cells to make them produce viral proteins. the body forms antibodies that attacks those proteins. this is really amazing technology but i do not believe it has been used in a high volume vaccine before.
live virus platform technology - genetically modified virus injects genetic material into some cells to take over their protein making. the cells that are taken over produce viral proteins. the body produces antibodies that attack these proteins. this is also amazing technology but i believe the ebola vaccine was the first time this type ofpro technology has been used in a high volume vaccine. different virus are chosen, and i believe virus that humans are generally not exposed to are chosen. that is because you dont want the body to have antibodies that would attack the virus so it can take over enough cells to produce enough viral proteins that illicit the immune response.
viral protein technology - injects proteins that cause immune reaction to generate antibodies. this is well proven technology used for flu vaccines.
mRNA vaccines will be available first. the immune response from pfizer and moderna vaccines have shown over 90% response in phase 3 trials.
live virus platform vaccines would be next. not sure exactly when yet. johnson & johnson vaccine recently entered stage 3 trials. astrozeneca vaccine showing 70-90% response.
viral protein vaccines would probably be last and be available around june. smithglaxokline vaccine just entering phase 2/3 trial.
a good article: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/24/health/covid-vaccines-design-explained/index.html
personally, if i am in a job where i am exposed to lots of people or elder/preexisting conditions, i would take the astrozeneca vaccine if i am able to get it. would prefer to avoid the mRNA vaccine because no long term data.
i actually would wait for the viral protein vaccines that will need a few more months. i dont go into crowded conditions, and if needed, have access to n95 type protection systems that can be used for hours reasonably comfortably when i have to get on a plane. |
Interesting enough Cal1 as far as choosing vaccines, I spoken to the Chief Medical Officer where at work and they are anticipating a vaccine for health care workers around Mid December
But the vaccine is going to Pfizer's..remember Pfizer is the one that has to be stored at ultracool temperatures and it seems that Health Care facilities should have an easier time dealing with this.
so it looks like if you are in Health Care, the choice is chosen for you..although as you know, I have favored the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines so I have no issue with it. |
yes it is chosen because mRNA will probably be the only thing available in dec
not sure when the astrozeneca live modified virus one one will be available. |
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ThePageDude
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markjay
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| Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:13 am Post subject: |
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| I’m in a high risk group (over 65) and will presumably have access to a vaccine early. I will be in line for an mRNA vaccine the day it becomes available. I have seen no evidence, or theoretical reason, why they should be dangerous, and Moderna's first clinical trial started 8 months ago. The only possible long term problem I could imagine is the vaccine losing its effectiveness over time. |
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cal1piggy
Star Player
Joined: 19 Jul 2017
Posts: 2584
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| Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:56 am Post subject: |
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@lar - actually not sure how anyone would be able to select a vaccine. i personally will wait for the traditional viral protein vaccines as i am a very late adopter.
@markjay - i believe medical people get the vaccine first, but then i think those at risk would be second.
i am just risk averse. as far as i am concerned, i prefer the old technology protein based vaccine. then it is the modified virus vaccine since they have been used for ebola. other than 2 exceptions including lar, the md's that i know are not taking the mrna vaccine.
i actually know a professor who is sort of a chief science officer for a mrna vaccine company. being old college classmates, i asked her about mrna vaccines - specifically whether something had to be done chemically to stabilize the mrna so it does not disappear too quickly inside the body. she said yes but she feels it is safe. once i heard about the 'stabilized mrna', i did not want to take it. i do believe that she believes it is perfectly safe, and she is very very smart. but it is just a personal preference thing. |
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TooMuchMajicBuss
Franchise Player
Joined: 17 Sep 2008
Posts: 21092
Location: In a white room, with black curtains near the station
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| Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:04 am Post subject: |
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Good to see these updates from you guys, Cal1 and LAR9149. Yeah, this is looking better and better. I remember your stats about hoped-for efficacy rates and about fell over seeing 90++% for Pfizer and Moderna. We still gotta stay safe and try to put a lid on this pandemic until we can get vaccine treatment, which fortunately is a matter of weeks for some, 3 months for many, and not much longer for most.
This is going to be an interesting season, particularly late season. I look forward to fans in NBA arenas again, a screaming crowd cheering Laker title #18, and a full fledged parade this summer. |
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cal1piggy
Star Player
Joined: 19 Jul 2017
Posts: 2584
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| Posted: Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:30 am Post subject: |
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| have a safe and happy thanksgiving everyone |
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