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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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 Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:50 am Post subject: |
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| DuncanIdaho wrote: | | MookieBetts50 wrote: | | Crissakes way too many years given the catching talent already in the pipeline. With DH already locked up, hopefully Big Will can eventually transition to 3rd once Muncy is off the books |
Yeah he's absolutely going to have to move to another infield position eventually. His bat should stay good for a long time, but his knees won't. |
Don’t forget, he has good trade value at $14M per as a DH.
Also, he was already signed this yr and we had team control over him next yr.
So it’s basically an 8 yr extension.
Or, if u want to get technical, 9 yr extension. |
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SGV-Laker fan
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Joined: 23 May 2013
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| Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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| don't forget Freddy Freeman aint no spring chicken, so i'm sure having Smith around to fill in at 1st base when Freeman starts to decline also played a role in giving him this long contract. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:01 pm Post subject: |
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| SGV-Laker fan wrote: | | don't forget Freddy Freeman aint no spring chicken, so i'm sure having Smith around to fill in at 1st base when Freeman starts to decline also played a role in giving him this long contract. |
Yeah, Freeman's 34, turning 35 in September. He has 4 yrs left on his deal.
So in 4 yrs, he'll probably be let go after turning 38.
| Quote: | 2024: 34-35
2025: 35-36
2026: 36-37
2027: 37-38 |
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DuncanIdaho
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Joined: 26 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | You can make the case that the Dodgers now have the 4th-best rotation in the NL West. |
In Eno Sarris' (The Athletic) article today he has the Dodgers rotation with the best Stuff+ in baseball and it isn't close:
Dodgers 121.3
Mariners 110.5
Orioles 108.8
Padres 108.5
Astros 108
Location+ is 3rd (mainly because Kirby is a location god)
Mariners 104.5
Orioles 102.5
Dodgers 102
Padres 101
Astros 99.8
Fangraphs also agrees with their projections:
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP
The big question is - can our guys stay healthy? Can Yamamoto adapt?
| Quote: | FanGraphs has taken projections and then assigned innings for starting pitchers, all the way down to the 12th starter (or beyond). It tries to account for injury risk in that process, as well as talent. There’s an element of the human touch here, but it’s based on projections, and FanGraphs has done the work systematically for all 30 teams. Here are the top 10 teams by its Wins Above Replacement projections, using FanGraphs’ depth charts for playing time distribution:
Seen this way, the Padres have entered the chat. They are in the top third of the league, in a group behind the trio of the Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves — teams that might have the consensus best rotations in ball this year even if you tried it by the first method. You might notice that the Padres have a lower projected ERA than some of the teams around them, but they also have a kinder park than the Cincinnati Reds and Toronto Blue Jays, as examples, and that’s accounted for in the fWAR projection.
Assumptions are still being made in this method. FanGraphs writers are making decisions about health, for one. They’ve given Tyler Glasnow 147 innings (which would be his career high in the majors), along with 71 innings for Clayton Kershaw (which might be a guess for anyone). Michael King gets 139 innings, and the fifth spot in San Diego is an innings amalgamation of Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron, Pedro Avila and Robby Snelling. They do this because teams use around 10 starting pitchers on average and give many innings to the sixth and seventh starters. It’s a fact of life in today’s injury-ridden game.
https://theathletic.com/5342662/2024/03/14/padres-mlb-best-rotations-dylan-cease/ |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16190
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| Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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| DuncanIdaho wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | You can make the case that the Dodgers now have the 4th-best rotation in the NL West. |
In Eno Sarris' (The Athletic) article today he has the Dodgers rotation with the best Stuff+ in baseball and it isn't close:
Dodgers 121.3
Mariners 110.5
Orioles 108.8
Padres 108.5
Astros 108
Location+ is 3rd (mainly because Kirby is a location god)
Mariners 104.5
Orioles 102.5
Dodgers 102
Padres 101
Astros 99.8
Fangraphs also agrees with their projections:
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP
The big question is - can our guys stay healthy? Can Yamamoto adapt?
| Quote: | FanGraphs has taken projections and then assigned innings for starting pitchers, all the way down to the 12th starter (or beyond). It tries to account for injury risk in that process, as well as talent. There’s an element of the human touch here, but it’s based on projections, and FanGraphs has done the work systematically for all 30 teams. Here are the top 10 teams by its Wins Above Replacement projections, using FanGraphs’ depth charts for playing time distribution:
Seen this way, the Padres have entered the chat. They are in the top third of the league, in a group behind the trio of the Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves — teams that might have the consensus best rotations in ball this year even if you tried it by the first method. You might notice that the Padres have a lower projected ERA than some of the teams around them, but they also have a kinder park than the Cincinnati Reds and Toronto Blue Jays, as examples, and that’s accounted for in the fWAR projection.
Assumptions are still being made in this method. FanGraphs writers are making decisions about health, for one. They’ve given Tyler Glasnow 147 innings (which would be his career high in the majors), along with 71 innings for Clayton Kershaw (which might be a guess for anyone). Michael King gets 139 innings, and the fifth spot in San Diego is an innings amalgamation of Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron, Pedro Avila and Robby Snelling. They do this because teams use around 10 starting pitchers on average and give many innings to the sixth and seventh starters. It’s a fact of life in today’s injury-ridden game.
https://theathletic.com/5342662/2024/03/14/padres-mlb-best-rotations-dylan-cease/ |
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Some questions about this:
| Quote: | - How are they rating Yamamoto? By his Japan numbers?
- Kershaw, Paxton, and Bobby Miller, and Gavin Stone are so hard to predict due to injuries and inexperience. |
Basically, the Dodgers have an entire rotation of unknowns and question marks, so it's hard to rate them properly.
They could be the best, or they could be 4th best. It's just a matter of how good or bad your projections are. |
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DuncanIdaho
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| Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:02 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | Some questions about this:
| Quote: | - How are they rating Yamamoto? By his Japan numbers?
- Kershaw, Paxton, and Bobby Miller, and Gavin Stone are so hard to predict due to injuries and inexperience. |
Basically, the Dodgers have an entire rotation of unknowns and question marks, so it's hard to rate them properly.
They could be the best, or they could be 4th best. It's just a matter of how good or bad your projections are. |
Yes, health is by far the biggest question with our rotation's rating. We could either be awesome, or just an absolute dumpster fire. Bobby Miller looks awesome (125 stuff+) and doesn't have injury concerns, so at least there's that  |
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jonnybravo
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| Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2024 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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I read somewhere that Smith's contract has $5M a year deferred. What's the payroll situation look like today?
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LongBeachPoly
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Posts: 16190
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| Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2024 7:16 pm Post subject: |
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| jonnybravo wrote: | | I read somewhere that Smith's contract has $5M a year deferred. What's the payroll situation look like today? |
We’re over $300M for sure. Probably between $310-315M.
At this point, we’ve surpassed the highest bracket. Every dollar spent gets taxed at 110%.
So before this new extension, Smith was set to earn $8.55M.
After this extension, his new tax number is somewher around $14M (depending on the deferrals).
Let’s say it’s $14M.
That’s $5.45M in new money, taxed at 110% = $5.45M + $6M in taxes
So it costs us $6M in luxury taxes to extend him now. |
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defense
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Joined: 12 Jan 2010
Posts: 39683
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:44 am Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | Dr. Laker wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | defense wrote: | | Isn't Dave Japanese? Learn Japanese you mofo, or bring in your own interpreter. |
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Roberts' mom is Japanese. Dave speaks the language, but not like a native. |
So what’s the criticism?
Become fluent in a few months?
And what does “or bring in your own interpreter” mean? |
If you couldn't tell, I was joking. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:07 am Post subject: |
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| Today somehow feels like the real season opener. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16190
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:09 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Rays' Wander Franco placed on administrative leave, sources say
Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco was placed on paid administrative leave through June 1 after an agreement was reached between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association with his criminal case for having an alleged sexual relationship with a 14-year-old in the Dominican Republic still unresolved, sources told ESPN.
The agreement, sources said, allows Franco's status with MLB to change if there are further developments in the case, in which prosecutors allege that he broke sexual exploitation and money-laundering laws. Franco has yet to be formally charged. |
It'd be funny if he ends up on paid administrative leave for the next 14 years and collects all of his $180M. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:11 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Cody Snavely
@SnavelyCody6
#Dodgers vs RH Mikolas
SS Betts
DH Ohtani
1B Freeman
C Smith
3B Muncy
LF T. Hernández
CF Outman
RF Heyward
2B Lux
Glasnow RHP |
| Quote: | Eric Stephen
@ericstephen
With a RHP (Miles Mikolas) on the mound for St. Louis, Dodgers are running the same lineup as the first two games in Seoul
First time the Dodgers have had all position players in the same order in the lineup 3 straight days since a 4-game stretch from August 16-19, 2016 |
Very weird random fact |
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ribeye
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:45 am Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: |
In Eno Sarris' (The Athletic) article today he has the Dodgers rotation with the best Stuff+ in baseball and it isn't close:
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2nd best?
I'm guessin" The Los Angeles Dodgers Disabled List (yeah I still have problems with the new term for the DL)
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"A metronome keeps time by using a Ringo" |
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DuncanIdaho
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:53 am Post subject: |
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| ribeye wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: |
In Eno Sarris' (The Athletic) article today he has the Dodgers rotation with the best Stuff+ in baseball and it isn't close:
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2nd best?
I'm guessin" The Los Angeles Dodgers Disabled List (yeah I still have problems with the new term for the DL) |
I still find myself calling it the DL often too |
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jodeke
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Location: In a world where admitting to not knowing something is considered a great way to learn.
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 10:19 am Post subject: |
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I haven't been watching. Is Ohtani playing? Are pitchers throwing at him? I'll watch the opener today. I'm curious.
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Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.
America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:00 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Dodgers Daily
@dodger_daily
Congrats to Clayton Beeter for making the Yankees Opening Day Roster. Gonna be fun watching him pitch in the MLB. #Yankees #Dodgers
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Looks like the Yankees were able to make use of him. Remember, we traded him for 1/2 yr of Joey Gallo |
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32
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:05 am Post subject: |
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Congrats to Will Smith on his new contract. He's one of my favorite Dodger players. Let's go Dodgers!
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LongBeachPoly
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Posts: 16190
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:23 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | James Paxton is getting a $2 million bonus for being on the Los Angeles Dodgers' active roster for their home opener Thursday, raising his guaranteed pay to $9 million with the chance to earn another $4 million based on starts.
…. allowing him to earn up to $13 million if he is healthy during the early part of the season and starts at least 20 games.
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| Quote: | He could earn $4 million in performance bonuses for starts: $600,000 each for six, eight, 10, 12 and 16, and $1 million for 18.
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Looks like he only needs to make 18, not 20 starts to earn $4M:
| Quote: | Start no. 6: $600k
Start no. 8: $600k
Start no. 10: $600k
Start no. 12: $600k
Start no. 16: $600k
Start no. 18: $1 MILLION
TOTAL: $4M
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jodeke
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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I'm watching the Dodger - Cardinal game. I like the strike zone square on the screen. Sometimes it doesn't agree with the call. I have Direct TV. I can replay the calls immediately.
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Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.
America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. |
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Snipes
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:56 pm Post subject: |
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| What a start. We are a Dino mistake away from probably 7-0. |
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Snipes
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:02 pm Post subject: |
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| jodeke wrote: | | I'm watching the Dodger - Cardinal game. I like the strike zone square on the screen. Sometimes it doesn't agree with the call. I have Direct TV. I can replay the calls immediately. |
How are you enjoying the game thus far?  |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Freddie is the second-best pure hitter the Dodgers have had in my lifetime, behind only Mike Piazza. You can give me numbers and stats that might consider a couple of others, but I'm firm in my assessment based on about 37 years of following the Dodgers. He's a machine. |
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oasisdude77
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Joined: 02 Oct 2007
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Snipes wrote: | | What a start. We are a Dino mistake away from probably 7-0. |
Haha, I was at the gym watching that and immediately thought of this thread when I saw that.
Look, we don't fully know if Mookie would've scored (probably) but Shohei didn't even look up lol.
Plus, if it was 2nd and 3rd with nobody out, the infield would've been back in normal position so Freddie's AB would've been an RBI groundout instead of a base hit so who knows how the rest of the inning would've played out.
All in all, been a great start. |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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I was pretty much MIA yesterday, so I didn't get to comment on the Will Smith extension. This is clearly luxury tax manipulation, as Smith is worth a lot more than $14MM a year, so we gave him way too many years to compensate. It's kind of what the Padres did with Yu Darvish. Towards the end of the deal it could look terrible, but $14MM a year for the last 3-4 years of it, when we'll be in the 2030's, might look like chump change. A team like the Dodgers can carry that on their payroll without it killing them.
This also clears the path to trade not only Cartaya, but also Rushing, potentially. Smith is going to be catching for another 4-5 years, at least. |
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jodeke
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Location: In a world where admitting to not knowing something is considered a great way to learn.
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Snipes wrote: | | jodeke wrote: | | I'm watching the Dodger - Cardinal game. I like the strike zone square on the screen. Sometimes it doesn't agree with the call. I have Direct TV. I can replay the calls immediately. |
How are you enjoying the game thus far? |
I haven't been able to really watch. My sister, who rarely visits came by and my neighbor had an asthma attack and the paramedics are outside.
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America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. |
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