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TACH
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 Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 5:36 am Post subject: Stern back on 'free' radio? |
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| Quote: | Sirius' Howard Stern could return to free radio, NY Post
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Sirius Satellite Radio were off 1.5% to $4.05 in Nasdaq pre-market action following a report that a deal may be in the works to allow shock jock Howard Stern, the company's main on-air personality, to return to free radio in some capacity. The New York Post, citing industry tradesheet Inside Radio, said Stern could return through a deal between Sirius and Citadel Broadcasting , which is in the process of buying certain radio assets from Walt Disney Co. The Post mentioned New York stations WPLJ and WABC as possible venues for Stern. |
| Quote: | Howard Stern Set for Second Push
Did you see the Friday Morning Quarterback article titled "Howard Stern Claims To Be 'Victim Of A Smear Campaign'"? If not, maybe you saw the 60 Minutes rerun of its Howard Stern spotlight. How about the Inside Radio headline, "From the Rumor Mill — What’s with all the speculation about Howard Stern back on 'the radio'"?
I'm betting it's more than a coincidence the Sirius superstar's name is showing up this often over a span of five days. There's something cooking behind the scenes. Howard is trying not to become yesterday's news.
If there's anything learned from Stern's move to Sirius it's validation of the adage "out of sight, out of mind." In just nine months, The King of All Media has moved from standard water cooler talk to someone who has to fight for space in those talks.
Controversy generated Howard's name, and it was always paired with wondering if he crossed the FCC's indecency line. (No one ever spoke of his intellectually stimulating topics.) Without controversy, Howard is in the same chorus as hundreds of other media people. So the natural move is to create controversy, which Howard is trying to do with his claim of a "smear campaign."
Moving from an estimated audience of 12 million to one that is (estimated) at slightly over 1 million is a big blow to any ego. You're not only reaching fewer people, but you're receiving feedback in a proportionately less amount too. It's got to grate on the nerves of anyone who's used to constant adulation.
Stern is quoted in the FMQB article:
"I've got more enemies now than I ever have. We are so successful here
at Sirius Satellite Radio. I have the entire radio industry (bleep) with me,
hiring publicists to plant whatever (bleep) they can say in the paper to make
it seem like we're losers. My enemies are way worse than the government.
Big business is my enemy, business people desperate for money. And let
me tell you, they are way worse than the government."
Howard is masterful at weaving the terms "enemies," "big business," and "government" into the same paragraph. Can't think of three entities that might draw the ire of his fan base more. Only, at $100 million a year, Howard is, himself, "big business" - open game, fair play for pundits who are now on a slighty more even ground. But, they aren't big broadcasters.
The radio industry does not have to discredit Howard's Sirius Satellite Radio gig, as he claims. Satellite radio is not going as well as he, or Sirius, expected because the industry continues to live on hype - which was good for its first five years, but now it's becoming old hat.
When Sirius and XM Satellite Radio launched, each company claimed they would be profitable at two million subscribers; then it changed to four million. Soon, both were speaking of six million, eight million, and now it's nine million!
Sirius still doesn't have the audience numbers to matter when spead over the continental United States. That's Howard's main problem.
Meanwhile, CBS wants to help, or so it seems. Whatever would make that network rerun a Howard Stern "60 Minutes" segment is the conversation that's traveling around broadcast circles today. Let the dead dog lie isn't something Les Moonves believes in, unless there's something cooking on the back burners as the Inside Radio headline reads. But what could CBS possibly have to gain, after bringing Opie & Anthony in as Stern's replacement? (IR is giving the nod to Citadel's chief Farid Suleman, and the recent purchase of ABC Radio as a possible scenario.)
Howard slid into the abyss when leaving his broadcast home. Now the "out of sight, out of mind" syndrome is being fought in the only way Howard Stern knows - by creating controversy.
Here's an opinion: Howard is destined to return to broadcast. O&A showed it can be done, and the bleeding Sirius with the wounded Stern knows that it's the only way to resuscitate a show which has lost 90% of its audience.
At $100 million a year, Howard isn't producing a profit. |
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RMurphy_22
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 9:02 am Post subject: |
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Howard Stern will never return to free radio. He would rather retire than ever come back to radio controlled by our right wing government. I think the story is false and wont happen.
Go Lakers |
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Socks
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 9:21 am Post subject: |
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| If the $$$ are right, Stern will return. I don't know the exact #'s, but I have a hard time believing Serius is making any money off Stern right now since they are paying him so much. If they can find a way to make more $$$ off him by returning him to regular radio, he'll have to do it for them. |
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uberzev
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 9:38 am Post subject: |
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That would be sweet if he did. I can still enjoy the show with bleeps.
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TACH
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 9:40 am Post subject: |
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| RMurphy_22 wrote: | Howard Stern will never return to free radio. He would rather retire than ever come back to radio controlled by our right wing government. I think the story is false and wont happen.
Go Lakers |
The story is starting to get some legs...
| Quote: | Howard Stern may return to traditional radio: report
By David B. Wilkerson, MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:07 PM ET Sep 19, 2006
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -Howard Stern, who bolted to Sirius Satellite Radio early last year after more than two raucous decades as a top-rated morning host on Infinity Radio, could be set to return to the traditional medium, according to a published report Tuesday.
The New York Post reported that Stern is concerned that he has lost impact as a performer since his move to satellite radio, and a deal between Sirius and terrestrial radio group Citadel Broadcasting
Sirius did not immediately provide comment Tuesday.
Stern defected to Sirius in January 2005 after hyping that jump for months on his Infinity (now CBS) Radio program.
If Stern does appear on Citadel stations, which will soon include outlets acquired from Walt Disney Co.'s) ABC, it will remind many of the deal shock jocks Opie & Anthony have with XM Satellite Radio
Opie & Anthony also do a three-hour CBS Radio broadcast from 6 A.M. to 9 A.M. Eastern time in several markets. That program is simulcast, uncensored, on XM. The duo then broadcast their exclusive, more risqué XM show from 9 to 11.
The arrangement is designed to entice new listeners to XM and reacquaint many CBS listeners with Opie & Anthony, who previously had a morning-drive show on that company's stations before being fired in 2002.
Stern's switch to satellite not only lifted awareness of Sirius, but that of rival XM as well, signaling that the medium could attract marquee talent.
Sirius shares were down 3.4% at $3.97 Tuesday afternoon on massive volume of 36.1 million shares, while XM was down 3.2% at $13.44. |
I didn't think he would return either... but sooner or later, he's going to have to do something if he wants to considered number 1
| Quote: | | "The King of All Media is losing ground. Hitwise, which monitors Internet traffic, says the number of visitors to Howard Stern's Web site has declined a staggering 71 percent since March 2005...And look-ups of Stern's name on search engines plummeted by 90 percent in that same period..."-New York Post, September 13, 2006 |
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eureca
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 10:19 am Post subject: |
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| RMurphy_22 wrote: | Howard Stern will never return to free radio. He would rather retire than ever come back to radio controlled by our right wing government. I think the story is false and wont happen.
Go Lakers |
This is true Howard has said this many times before. And stories like this have come out like this while he has been at sirius and have been 100% false the media are idiots that will either hear some bum on the street talking about something a make story about it or just make it up all together.
| Socks wrote: | | If the $$$ are right, Stern will return. I don't know the exact #'s, but I have a hard time believing Serius is making any money off Stern right now since they are paying him so much. If they can find a way to make more $$$ off him by returning him to regular radio, he'll have to do it for them. |
Money is money the world is driven by it, but at this point in his career he is happy not having to deal with the politics by the FCC. And as for his contract at he is making more money at Sirius then he would ever make on free radio.
As for Sirius not making any money? That is completely inaccurate. They were not making money before they signed Howard and only had 600 thousands listeners. Now? Well for Howard's contract for the 5 years to pay for itself they needed at least 1 million new subscribers. Thanks to Howard Sirius has gone from 600 thousand subscribers to 4 and a half million subscribers and its climbing every week. It has been a tremendous success for everyone involved. That is just a fact.
I'm pretty sure this story has no merit so don't get your hopes up anyone.
| Quote: | | "The King of All Media is losing ground. Hitwise, which monitors Internet traffic, says the number of visitors to Howard Stern's Web site has declined a staggering 71 percent since March 2005...And look-ups of Stern's name on search engines plummeted by 90 percent in that same period..."-New York Post, September 13, 2006 |
[/quote]
Oh and as for that Howard talks about all negative articles on his show. And he kinda joked about that Internet hits is really what matters and were so important to him. Which I suppose isn't true. He did say that his site gets more hits then ever before. |
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20,000
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 10:32 am Post subject: |
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| uberzev wrote: | | That would be sweet if he did. I can still enjoy the show with bleeps. |
Which makes me wonder, what are the chances that the terrestrial radio people put out such "news" to discourage people from buying into Sirius (or even XM)? If they hear Stern may return to free radio, then why bother getting satellite at all?
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Sometimes courage is the quiet voice at the end of the day saying...'I will try again tomorrow.' |
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Socks
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:10 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Money is money the world is driven by it, but at this point in his career he is happy not having to deal with the politics by the FCC. And as for his contract at he is making more money at Sirius then he would ever make on free radio.
As for Sirius not making any money? That is completely inaccurate. They were not making money before they signed Howard and only had 600 thousands listeners. Now? Well for Howard's contract for the 5 years to pay for itself they needed at least 1 million new subscribers. Thanks to Howard Sirius has gone from 600 thousand subscribers to 4 and a half million subscribers and its climbing every week. It has been a tremendous success for everyone involved. That is just a fact. |
I don't know that it's that easily defined. Quick analysis seems to show Howard doing OK, but Sirius struggling.
First off, Sirius is not making money. Over the trailing twelve months, they have lost $606 M. They have $589 M in the bank. That's one hell of a burn rate. So that says to me they need to cut spend in a big way because they can't afford to lose that much next year, or they need to raise more money through financing or just making more in revenue. Their profit margin is -280% and operating margin is -266%. So basically, they're losing money with each subscriber right now.
Granted, I'm not an expert on Sirius, so correct me if I'm wrong, but you can pay about $12/month or $24/month for a subscription. This would mean with a year's subscription 1 million subscribers would get Sirius somewhere between $144 M and $300M for one year's subscription. Assuming that there is renewal in a good percentage of that subscriber base, they'll eventually pay for Howard's contract over the course of a year or a couple years.
It's hard to attribute a subscriber directly to Howard, but it seems like he's doing OK and will pay for himself. But Sirius doesn't yet seem to be. They're just not pulling in the numbers. So what do you do if you're Sirius and you're bleeding cash? You look to take a product that is successful, where you know there is demand in another market and try to make more money on that product. Licensing it out to broadcast radio might be one way to do it. |
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TACH
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:18 am Post subject: |
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| eureca wrote: | | RMurphy_22 wrote: | Howard Stern will never return to free radio. He would rather retire than ever come back to radio controlled by our right wing government. I think the story is false and wont happen.
Go Lakers |
As for Sirius not making any money? That is completely inaccurate. They were not making money before they signed Howard and only had 600 thousands listeners. Now? Well for Howard's contract for the 5 years to pay for itself they needed at least 1 million new subscribers. Thanks to Howard Sirius has gone from 600 thousand subscribers to 4 and a half million subscribers and its climbing every week. It has been a tremendous success for everyone involved. That is just a fact.
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Honestly,.. I could care less about Stern... I'm more interested in the companies from an invest point of view...
With that said.... both companies are losing money... regardless how you look at the numbers... before or after Stern. And at this point SIRI is losing more than XM... If you don't believe me, go look at each company's balance sheets.
And as an investor, if you look at the number of subs... there is some funny math going on:
| Quote: | | Both Sirius and XM count on arrangements with automakers to power subscriber gains, but while XM waits until a car's satellite service is actually activated before adding it to the new subscriber tally, Sirius sometimes counts them as soon as a car with a factory installed radio arrives at a dealership. - The Street.com |
As for the Stern 'efffect'... SIRI had 3.3 million subs as of 12/31/05 (1.1 as pf 12/31/04). They now have 4 million plus, and XM has 7 million plus (5.93 million as 12/31/05)... SIRI is still roughly 3 million subs behind XM...
Where did you get 600K to 4 million from?
From what I understand, Stern did say on his show today... the rumors are false about going back to regular radio...
Last edited by TACH on Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:20 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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Laker_Town
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:31 am Post subject: |
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| uberzev wrote: | | That would be sweet if he did. I can still enjoy the show with bleeps. |
Off topic here but, for some reason I find it funnier to hear the beeps. Probably the way the perverted mind just spices things up. After hearing an uncensored show that goes on and on about the F-ing this and the F-ing that, it completely destroys the "naughty" aspect of it. |
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surfbu
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Socks wrote: | | Quote: | Money is money the world is driven by it, but at this point in his career he is happy not having to deal with the politics by the FCC. And as for his contract at he is making more money at Sirius then he would ever make on free radio.
As for Sirius not making any money? That is completely inaccurate. They were not making money before they signed Howard and only had 600 thousands listeners. Now? Well for Howard's contract for the 5 years to pay for itself they needed at least 1 million new subscribers. Thanks to Howard Sirius has gone from 600 thousand subscribers to 4 and a half million subscribers and its climbing every week. It has been a tremendous success for everyone involved. That is just a fact. |
I don't know that it's that easily defined. Quick analysis seems to show Howard doing OK, but Sirius struggling.
First off, Sirius is not making money. Over the trailing twelve months, they have lost $606 M. They have $589 M in the bank. That's one hell of a burn rate. So that says to me they need to cut spend in a big way because they can't afford to lose that much next year, or they need to raise more money through financing or just making more in revenue. Their profit margin is -280% and operating margin is -266%. So basically, they're losing money with each subscriber right now.
Granted, I'm not an expert on Sirius, so correct me if I'm wrong, but you can pay about $12/month or $24/month for a subscription. This would mean with a year's subscription 1 million subscribers would get Sirius somewhere between $144 M and $300M for one year's subscription. Assuming that there is renewal in a good percentage of that subscriber base, they'll eventually pay for Howard's contract over the course of a year or a couple years.
It's hard to attribute a subscriber directly to Howard, but it seems like he's doing OK and will pay for himself. But Sirius doesn't yet seem to be. They're just not pulling in the numbers. So what do you do if you're Sirius and you're bleeding cash? You look to take a product that is successful, where you know there is demand in another market and try to make more money on that product. Licensing it out to broadcast radio might be one way to do it. |
None of the satellite radio companies is turning a profit. Sirius, since are talking about them, didn't just "lose" $600MM last year. They invested a good part of that BACK into thier business by launching a handful of new Satellites, R&D for new hardware, etc.
Most companies (especially those that are "category definers", like Satellite radio or overnight shipping) dont turn a profit right away...they invest back into growing the infrastructure.
Howard talked about these stories at length on today's show. he is not leaving. he has no idea where these stories are coming from.
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RMurphy_22
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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| surfbu wrote: | | Socks wrote: | | Quote: | Money is money the world is driven by it, but at this point in his career he is happy not having to deal with the politics by the FCC. And as for his contract at he is making more money at Sirius then he would ever make on free radio.
As for Sirius not making any money? That is completely inaccurate. They were not making money before they signed Howard and only had 600 thousands listeners. Now? Well for Howard's contract for the 5 years to pay for itself they needed at least 1 million new subscribers. Thanks to Howard Sirius has gone from 600 thousand subscribers to 4 and a half million subscribers and its climbing every week. It has been a tremendous success for everyone involved. That is just a fact. |
I don't know that it's that easily defined. Quick analysis seems to show Howard doing OK, but Sirius struggling.
First off, Sirius is not making money. Over the trailing twelve months, they have lost $606 M. They have $589 M in the bank. That's one hell of a burn rate. So that says to me they need to cut spend in a big way because they can't afford to lose that much next year, or they need to raise more money through financing or just making more in revenue. Their profit margin is -280% and operating margin is -266%. So basically, they're losing money with each subscriber right now.
Granted, I'm not an expert on Sirius, so correct me if I'm wrong, but you can pay about $12/month or $24/month for a subscription. This would mean with a year's subscription 1 million subscribers would get Sirius somewhere between $144 M and $300M for one year's subscription. Assuming that there is renewal in a good percentage of that subscriber base, they'll eventually pay for Howard's contract over the course of a year or a couple years.
It's hard to attribute a subscriber directly to Howard, but it seems like he's doing OK and will pay for himself. But Sirius doesn't yet seem to be. They're just not pulling in the numbers. So what do you do if you're Sirius and you're bleeding cash? You look to take a product that is successful, where you know there is demand in another market and try to make more money on that product. Licensing it out to broadcast radio might be one way to do it. |
None of the satellite radio companies is turning a profit. Sirius, since are talking about them, didn't just "lose" $600MM last year. They invested a good part of that BACK into thier business by launching a handful of new Satellites, R&D for new hardware, etc.
Most companies (especially those that are "category definers", like Satellite radio or overnight shipping) dont turn a profit right away...they invest back into growing the infrastructure.
Howard talked about these stories at length on today's show. he is not leaving. he has no idea where these stories are coming from. |
Nice post surfbu. Howard did talk in length of the BS that is being written & talked about on TV. With AM/FM radio dying & XM radio about to be destroyed many haters are coming out to keep him down. After 20 years people still don't understand that the King can't be stopped. Long live Howard Stern and Los Angeles Lakers winning basketball!!!
Go Lakers |
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TACH
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:27 pm Post subject: |
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| surfbu wrote: | | Socks wrote: | | Quote: | Money is money the world is driven by it, but at this point in his career he is happy not having to deal with the politics by the FCC. And as for his contract at he is making more money at Sirius then he would ever make on free radio.
As for Sirius not making any money? That is completely inaccurate. They were not making money before they signed Howard and only had 600 thousands listeners. Now? Well for Howard's contract for the 5 years to pay for itself they needed at least 1 million new subscribers. Thanks to Howard Sirius has gone from 600 thousand subscribers to 4 and a half million subscribers and its climbing every week. It has been a tremendous success for everyone involved. That is just a fact. |
I don't know that it's that easily defined. Quick analysis seems to show Howard doing OK, but Sirius struggling.
First off, Sirius is not making money. Over the trailing twelve months, they have lost $606 M. They have $589 M in the bank. That's one hell of a burn rate. So that says to me they need to cut spend in a big way because they can't afford to lose that much next year, or they need to raise more money through financing or just making more in revenue. Their profit margin is -280% and operating margin is -266%. So basically, they're losing money with each subscriber right now.
Granted, I'm not an expert on Sirius, so correct me if I'm wrong, but you can pay about $12/month or $24/month for a subscription. This would mean with a year's subscription 1 million subscribers would get Sirius somewhere between $144 M and $300M for one year's subscription. Assuming that there is renewal in a good percentage of that subscriber base, they'll eventually pay for Howard's contract over the course of a year or a couple years.
It's hard to attribute a subscriber directly to Howard, but it seems like he's doing OK and will pay for himself. But Sirius doesn't yet seem to be. They're just not pulling in the numbers. So what do you do if you're Sirius and you're bleeding cash? You look to take a product that is successful, where you know there is demand in another market and try to make more money on that product. Licensing it out to broadcast radio might be one way to do it. |
None of the satellite radio companies is turning a profit. Sirius, since are talking about them, didn't just "lose" $600MM last year. They invested a good part of that BACK into thier business by launching a handful of new Satellites, R&D for new hardware, etc.
Most companies (especially those that are "category definers", like Satellite radio or overnight shipping) dont turn a profit right away...they invest back into growing the infrastructure.
Howard talked about these stories at length on today's show. he is not leaving. he has no idea where these stories are coming from. |
The article didn't say he was leaving... And from a 'balance sheet' standpoint... new satellites, R&D, etc. are consider an expense, and the reflects the financial standing of the company (that goes for XM too). Expenses cut into profits...
Last edited by TACH on Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:36 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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TACH
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:32 pm Post subject: |
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Nice post surfbu. Howard did talk in length of the BS that is being written & talked about on TV. With AM/FM radio dying & XM radio about to be destroyed many haters are coming out to keep him down. After 20 years people still don't understand that the King can't be stopped. Long live Howard Stern and Los Angeles Lakers winning basketball!!!
Go Lakers |
Destroyed? Since Howard's been on SIRI (1/1/06), they haven't gained any ground on XM,.. still approx 3 million back (and that depends on how you count subs)
I'm glad I dumped SIRI when it hit $7... |
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Socks
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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| TACH wrote: | | surfbu wrote: | | Socks wrote: | | Quote: | Money is money the world is driven by it, but at this point in his career he is happy not having to deal with the politics by the FCC. And as for his contract at he is making more money at Sirius then he would ever make on free radio.
As for Sirius not making any money? That is completely inaccurate. They were not making money before they signed Howard and only had 600 thousands listeners. Now? Well for Howard's contract for the 5 years to pay for itself they needed at least 1 million new subscribers. Thanks to Howard Sirius has gone from 600 thousand subscribers to 4 and a half million subscribers and its climbing every week. It has been a tremendous success for everyone involved. That is just a fact. |
I don't know that it's that easily defined. Quick analysis seems to show Howard doing OK, but Sirius struggling.
First off, Sirius is not making money. Over the trailing twelve months, they have lost $606 M. They have $589 M in the bank. That's one hell of a burn rate. So that says to me they need to cut spend in a big way because they can't afford to lose that much next year, or they need to raise more money through financing or just making more in revenue. Their profit margin is -280% and operating margin is -266%. So basically, they're losing money with each subscriber right now.
Granted, I'm not an expert on Sirius, so correct me if I'm wrong, but you can pay about $12/month or $24/month for a subscription. This would mean with a year's subscription 1 million subscribers would get Sirius somewhere between $144 M and $300M for one year's subscription. Assuming that there is renewal in a good percentage of that subscriber base, they'll eventually pay for Howard's contract over the course of a year or a couple years.
It's hard to attribute a subscriber directly to Howard, but it seems like he's doing OK and will pay for himself. But Sirius doesn't yet seem to be. They're just not pulling in the numbers. So what do you do if you're Sirius and you're bleeding cash? You look to take a product that is successful, where you know there is demand in another market and try to make more money on that product. Licensing it out to broadcast radio might be one way to do it. |
None of the satellite radio companies is turning a profit. Sirius, since are talking about them, didn't just "lose" $600MM last year. They invested a good part of that BACK into thier business by launching a handful of new Satellites, R&D for new hardware, etc.
Most companies (especially those that are "category definers", like Satellite radio or overnight shipping) dont turn a profit right away...they invest back into growing the infrastructure.
Howard talked about these stories at length on today's show. he is not leaving. he has no idea where these stories are coming from. |
The article didn't say he was leaving... And from a 'balance sheet' standpoint... new satellites, R&D, etc. are consider an expense, and the reflects the financial standing of the company (that goes for XM too). Expenses cut into profits... |
Exactly. I'm talking about income statements and balance sheets here. The fact is they burned through $600M+ in the past 12 months. While Wall Street doesn't necessarily expect them to be profitable right away, the reality is they have $589M in the bank. If you're burning through $600M+ in the next 12 months, that means you don't have enough money to pay for yourself and you need to find a way to either cut costs, bring in more revenue, or raise additional financing - or all three. That's just the reality of any business. I'm not saying they need to be profitable, they just need to be able to pay to keep the business running. For example, if Sirius was losing only $100 M a year, that $589 in the bank would last them almost 6 years - right now it won't last them one. Sirius cutting some sort of deal that puts Stern content on terrestrial radio is one potential way for Sirius to help reduce that burn rate.
Oh, and their proft margin was -280%. So that means they lost 280% more than they earned before taking into account R&D, employee salaries, and investments in infrastructure (like satellites, etc.). This company is absolutely bleeding cash.
I'm not denegrating Howard or his success or impact on Satellite radio (though I would love to have him back on terrestrial radio so I can listen). On the surface it looks like Howard is earning his keep. But Sirius is gonna have financial issues unless they figure out a way to balance the books a little better. Howard's Sirius-only content alone is not successful enough right now on his own to cut down the burn.
If Howard says there's no way he's doing it, I'd be interested in seeing who owns the content they produce and what his contract with Sirius is like. Could they try to force him to do it? |
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surfbu
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Socks wrote: | | TACH wrote: | | surfbu wrote: | | Socks wrote: | | Quote: | Money is money the world is driven by it, but at this point in his career he is happy not having to deal with the politics by the FCC. And as for his contract at he is making more money at Sirius then he would ever make on free radio.
As for Sirius not making any money? That is completely inaccurate. They were not making money before they signed Howard and only had 600 thousands listeners. Now? Well for Howard's contract for the 5 years to pay for itself they needed at least 1 million new subscribers. Thanks to Howard Sirius has gone from 600 thousand subscribers to 4 and a half million subscribers and its climbing every week. It has been a tremendous success for everyone involved. That is just a fact. |
I don't know that it's that easily defined. Quick analysis seems to show Howard doing OK, but Sirius struggling.
First off, Sirius is not making money. Over the trailing twelve months, they have lost $606 M. They have $589 M in the bank. That's one hell of a burn rate. So that says to me they need to cut spend in a big way because they can't afford to lose that much next year, or they need to raise more money through financing or just making more in revenue. Their profit margin is -280% and operating margin is -266%. So basically, they're losing money with each subscriber right now.
Granted, I'm not an expert on Sirius, so correct me if I'm wrong, but you can pay about $12/month or $24/month for a subscription. This would mean with a year's subscription 1 million subscribers would get Sirius somewhere between $144 M and $300M for one year's subscription. Assuming that there is renewal in a good percentage of that subscriber base, they'll eventually pay for Howard's contract over the course of a year or a couple years.
It's hard to attribute a subscriber directly to Howard, but it seems like he's doing OK and will pay for himself. But Sirius doesn't yet seem to be. They're just not pulling in the numbers. So what do you do if you're Sirius and you're bleeding cash? You look to take a product that is successful, where you know there is demand in another market and try to make more money on that product. Licensing it out to broadcast radio might be one way to do it. |
None of the satellite radio companies is turning a profit. Sirius, since are talking about them, didn't just "lose" $600MM last year. They invested a good part of that BACK into thier business by launching a handful of new Satellites, R&D for new hardware, etc.
Most companies (especially those that are "category definers", like Satellite radio or overnight shipping) dont turn a profit right away...they invest back into growing the infrastructure.
Howard talked about these stories at length on today's show. he is not leaving. he has no idea where these stories are coming from. |
The article didn't say he was leaving... And from a 'balance sheet' standpoint... new satellites, R&D, etc. are consider an expense, and the reflects the financial standing of the company (that goes for XM too). Expenses cut into profits... |
Exactly. I'm talking about income statements and balance sheets here. The fact is they burned through $600M+ in the past 12 months. While Wall Street doesn't necessarily expect them to be profitable right away, the reality is they have $589M in the bank. If you're burning through $600M+ in the next 12 months, that means you don't have enough money to pay for yourself and you need to find a way to either cut costs, bring in more revenue, or raise additional financing - or all three. That's just the reality of any business. I'm not saying they need to be profitable, they just need to be able to pay to keep the business running. For example, if Sirius was losing only $100 M a year, that $589 in the bank would last them almost 6 years - right now it won't last them one. Sirius cutting some sort of deal that puts Stern content on terrestrial radio is one potential way for Sirius to help reduce that burn rate.
Oh, and their proft margin was -280%. So that means they lost 280% more than they earned before taking into account R&D, employee salaries, and investments in infrastructure (like satellites, etc.). This company is absolutely bleeding cash.
I'm not denegrating Howard or his success or impact on Satellite radio (though I would love to have him back on terrestrial radio so I can listen). On the surface it looks like Howard is earning his keep. But Sirius is gonna have financial issues unless they figure out a way to balance the books a little better. Howard's Sirius-only content alone is not successful enough right now on his own to cut down the burn.
If Howard says there's no way he's doing it, I'd be interested in seeing who owns the content they produce and what his contract with Sirius is like. Could they try to force him to do it? |
Good post...and certainly I was using broad strokes. Not sure what the short term solution is. Licensing content, while obvious isnt that simple considering you are taking an encensored (R-rated/NC-17)show and trying to edit it for PG/PG13 radio.
Seems ironic in a way, since he holds the most record fines from the FCC on terrestrial radio.
There is a going to be a huge tipping point in satellite radio. Everyone thought that point would be the day Howard took over. Not so fast. The marketplace has to catch up, the end user has to be able to get the hardware easily and affordably and the content has to prove the value proposition is worth the price of admission.
As more and more Americans buy new cars...with most having satellite radio with 1 yr subscription built in...this service will be more ubiquitous and, like the Tivo, there will be a dramatic tipping point.
We may still be a year away from that, but when it happens, we wont be talking about 1MM subscribers paying $12.95/mo. We will be talking about 5-10MM subscribers paying that amount. Now you are talking potentially a billion dollars in subscriptions alone.
One last thing: Satellite radio is not entirely advertising free. Like Cable, I pay the fee each month and I still get ads on the Howard show and other shows (albeit, they are very small breaks...like 5 minutes...each hour) Ad revenue is going to be a meaningful part of Sirius's bottom line, and if you have 10MM users, you can sell a lot of advertising.
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Ziggy
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:20 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm sure he'll be back win Giuliani is in office. |
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eureca
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Oh as for Stern going back to free radio on today's show he laughed at all the reporters who try to bash him and write stories that have no truth or facts or just reprint whatever they find. |
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eureca
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TACH
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Location: Chillin on the Delaware.. from the Jersey Side
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 4:26 am Post subject: |
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| surfbu wrote: | | Socks wrote: | | TACH wrote: | | surfbu wrote: | | Socks wrote: | | Quote: | Money is money the world is driven by it, but at this point in his career he is happy not having to deal with the politics by the FCC. And as for his contract at he is making more money at Sirius then he would ever make on free radio.
As for Sirius not making any money? That is completely inaccurate. They were not making money before they signed Howard and only had 600 thousands listeners. Now? Well for Howard's contract for the 5 years to pay for itself they needed at least 1 million new subscribers. Thanks to Howard Sirius has gone from 600 thousand subscribers to 4 and a half million subscribers and its climbing every week. It has been a tremendous success for everyone involved. That is just a fact. |
I don't know that it's that easily defined. Quick analysis seems to show Howard doing OK, but Sirius struggling.
First off, Sirius is not making money. Over the trailing twelve months, they have lost $606 M. They have $589 M in the bank. That's one hell of a burn rate. So that says to me they need to cut spend in a big way because they can't afford to lose that much next year, or they need to raise more money through financing or just making more in revenue. Their profit margin is -280% and operating margin is -266%. So basically, they're losing money with each subscriber right now.
Granted, I'm not an expert on Sirius, so correct me if I'm wrong, but you can pay about $12/month or $24/month for a subscription. This would mean with a year's subscription 1 million subscribers would get Sirius somewhere between $144 M and $300M for one year's subscription. Assuming that there is renewal in a good percentage of that subscriber base, they'll eventually pay for Howard's contract over the course of a year or a couple years.
It's hard to attribute a subscriber directly to Howard, but it seems like he's doing OK and will pay for himself. But Sirius doesn't yet seem to be. They're just not pulling in the numbers. So what do you do if you're Sirius and you're bleeding cash? You look to take a product that is successful, where you know there is demand in another market and try to make more money on that product. Licensing it out to broadcast radio might be one way to do it. |
None of the satellite radio companies is turning a profit. Sirius, since are talking about them, didn't just "lose" $600MM last year. They invested a good part of that BACK into thier business by launching a handful of new Satellites, R&D for new hardware, etc.
Most companies (especially those that are "category definers", like Satellite radio or overnight shipping) dont turn a profit right away...they invest back into growing the infrastructure.
Howard talked about these stories at length on today's show. he is not leaving. he has no idea where these stories are coming from. |
The article didn't say he was leaving... And from a 'balance sheet' standpoint... new satellites, R&D, etc. are consider an expense, and the reflects the financial standing of the company (that goes for XM too). Expenses cut into profits... |
Exactly. I'm talking about income statements and balance sheets here. The fact is they burned through $600M+ in the past 12 months. While Wall Street doesn't necessarily expect them to be profitable right away, the reality is they have $589M in the bank. If you're burning through $600M+ in the next 12 months, that means you don't have enough money to pay for yourself and you need to find a way to either cut costs, bring in more revenue, or raise additional financing - or all three. That's just the reality of any business. I'm not saying they need to be profitable, they just need to be able to pay to keep the business running. For example, if Sirius was losing only $100 M a year, that $589 in the bank would last them almost 6 years - right now it won't last them one. Sirius cutting some sort of deal that puts Stern content on terrestrial radio is one potential way for Sirius to help reduce that burn rate.
Oh, and their proft margin was -280%. So that means they lost 280% more than they earned before taking into account R&D, employee salaries, and investments in infrastructure (like satellites, etc.). This company is absolutely bleeding cash.
I'm not denegrating Howard or his success or impact on Satellite radio (though I would love to have him back on terrestrial radio so I can listen). On the surface it looks like Howard is earning his keep. But Sirius is gonna have financial issues unless they figure out a way to balance the books a little better. Howard's Sirius-only content alone is not successful enough right now on his own to cut down the burn.
If Howard says there's no way he's doing it, I'd be interested in seeing who owns the content they produce and what his contract with Sirius is like. Could they try to force him to do it? |
Good post...and certainly I was using broad strokes. Not sure what the short term solution is. Licensing content, while obvious isnt that simple considering you are taking an encensored (R-rated/NC-17)show and trying to edit it for PG/PG13 radio.
Seems ironic in a way, since he holds the most record fines from the FCC on terrestrial radio.
There is a going to be a huge tipping point in satellite radio. Everyone thought that point would be the day Howard took over. Not so fast. The marketplace has to catch up, the end user has to be able to get the hardware easily and affordably and the content has to prove the value proposition is worth the price of admission.
As more and more Americans buy new cars...with most having satellite radio with 1 yr subscription built in...this service will be more ubiquitous and, like the Tivo, there will be a dramatic tipping point.
We may still be a year away from that, but when it happens, we wont be talking about 1MM subscribers paying $12.95/mo. We will be talking about 5-10MM subscribers paying that amount. Now you are talking potentially a billion dollars in subscriptions alone.
One last thing: Satellite radio is not entirely advertising free. Like Cable, I pay the fee each month and I still get ads on the Howard show and other shows (albeit, they are very small breaks...like 5 minutes...each hour) Ad revenue is going to be a meaningful part of Sirius's bottom line, and if you have 10MM users, you can sell a lot of advertising. |
The problem with 'cars' is that XM has deals with the two biggest automakers (1.GM and 2.Toyota). And while Toyota is showing considereable growth, SIRI's biggest automaker, Ford, followed by Chrysler, is reducing production, something GM did last year and is beginning to rebound already. The outlook doesn't look good for Ford in the near term. Some brokerage houses have cut 'sub-growth' based on that:
| Quote: | | Credit Suisse repeated an Outperform rating on Sirius, but nonetheless cut projected third quarter subscriber net additions to 450,000 from 536,000, to reflect production cuts at Ford and Chrysler, the company’s largest partners in the auto market. |
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The Dagger
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 10:27 am Post subject: |
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| Ziggy wrote: | | I'm sure he'll be back win Giuliani is in office. |
Not Giuliani....but McKain/Powell (book it). |
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JerryMagicKobe
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 10:57 am Post subject: |
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Howard talked alot about this article yesterday. He said that the author (can't remember his name, but he's with the Post) has been writing lies about his demise for the last 20 years. He said that the growth of Sirius has surpassed all expectations, that Sirius has grown faster than the initial growth of cell phones, and Sirius has about 65% of the market share from XM which is a complete turnaround from where they were 9 months ago when Stern started.
As for Howard, he is not leaving satellite radio. He has 4 1/2 years left on the most lucrative contract ever signed by a broadcaster. He brought over 3 1/2 million listeners by himself. They expect to have 6 million by the end of the year. That's about $600,000,000 in annual revenue. Plus the price ($100 bucks or whatever) for the radios. They will continue to operate at a loss for a while, due to the huge capital outlay necessary to start this type of company. But that is a positive thing as the years go by, because that capital outlay is a barrier for future competitors who might wish to enter the market. And no one else has the draw of Howard Stern. XM signed Oprah for $50 million, and it hasn't helped their numbers at all. Plus, Howard can't go back to terresterial radio and the FCC. |
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TACH
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Location: Chillin on the Delaware.. from the Jersey Side
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 11:51 am Post subject: |
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| JerryMagicKobe wrote: | Howard talked alot about this article yesterday. He said that the author (can't remember his name, but he's with the Post) has been writing lies about his demise for the last 20 years. He said that the growth of Sirius has surpassed all expectations, that Sirius has grown faster than the initial growth of cell phones, and Sirius has about 65% of the market share from XM which is a complete turnaround from where they were 9 months ago when Stern started.
As for Howard, he is not leaving satellite radio. He has 4 1/2 years left on the most lucrative contract ever signed by a broadcaster. He brought over 3 1/2 million listeners by himself. They expect to have 6 million by the end of the year. That's about $600,000,000 in annual revenue. Plus the price ($100 bucks or whatever) for the radios. They will continue to operate at a loss for a while, due to the huge capital outlay necessary to start this type of company. But that is a positive thing as the years go by, because that capital outlay is a barrier for future competitors who might wish to enter the market. And no one else has the draw of Howard Stern. XM signed Oprah for $50 million, and it hasn't helped their numbers at all. Plus, Howard can't go back to terresterial radio and the FCC. |
How can SIRI have 65% of the market when that have 4+ million subscribers and XM has 7 + million? And you can look them up,... on 12/31/04 SIRI had 1.1 million sub, on 12/31/05 they 3.3. They now have 4 million plus, and XM has 7 million plus (5.93 million as 12/31/05)... SIRI is still roughly 3 million subs behind XM... For all the Howard hub-bub, SIRI is still 3 million subs behind XM,... exactly where they were at the beginning of 2006.
It's absolutely ludicrous to think he brought over 3.5 million subs (if 3.5 million is a true number,.. it really depends on when you start counting). None of those subs signed up for the NFL or NBA or NHL, or simply for the music... right? None of those 'subs' bought a car with the unit already active (which also means a car sitting on a Ford Car lot is considered an activce SIRI sub, even though the car hasn't been sold and nobody's listening)? They all did it for Howard?
Come on,.. you can't really believe that. I would say some of the 3.5, but not all. Even Wall St. estimates Howie got 1 million subs, and at this point, the 'Howard Stern' effect is over. Meaning any new subs can not be totally attributed Howard. So now what, SIRI is stuck paying 425 million over the next 4 1/4 years... Proof is in the stock price... it's currently below $4. SIRI needs to do something... as it stand now, they will be second XM for the foreseeable (XM has close to a 3 million sub lead and has more unit in cars because of the deals they have with the two biggest automakers GM and Toyota).
As for Oprah,.. she hasn't started boardcasting yet. I believe that starts next week. But based on her track record with her audience (any book she give book of the month status reaches number 1), it's fair to say XM will see a bump in the 3 qtr. and will continue through the holiday season (especially since the deal was only annouced this past summer). |
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eureca
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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| TACH wrote: | | JerryMagicKobe wrote: | Howard talked alot about this article yesterday. He said that the author (can't remember his name, but he's with the Post) has been writing lies about his demise for the last 20 years. He said that the growth of Sirius has surpassed all expectations, that Sirius has grown faster than the initial growth of cell phones, and Sirius has about 65% of the market share from XM which is a complete turnaround from where they were 9 months ago when Stern started.
As for Howard, he is not leaving satellite radio. He has 4 1/2 years left on the most lucrative contract ever signed by a broadcaster. He brought over 3 1/2 million listeners by himself. They expect to have 6 million by the end of the year. That's about $600,000,000 in annual revenue. Plus the price ($100 bucks or whatever) for the radios. They will continue to operate at a loss for a while, due to the huge capital outlay necessary to start this type of company. But that is a positive thing as the years go by, because that capital outlay is a barrier for future competitors who might wish to enter the market. And no one else has the draw of Howard Stern. XM signed Oprah for $50 million, and it hasn't helped their numbers at all. Plus, Howard can't go back to terresterial radio and the FCC. |
How can SIRI have 65% of the market when that have 4+ million subscribers and XM has 7 + million? And you can look them up,... on 12/31/04 SIRI had 1.1 million sub, on 12/31/05 they 3.3. They now have 4 million plus, and XM has 7 million plus (5.93 million as 12/31/05)... SIRI is still roughly 3 million subs behind XM... For all the Howard hub-bub, SIRI is still 3 million subs behind XM,... exactly where they were at the beginning of 2006.
It's absolutely ludicrous to think he brought over 3.5 million subs (if 3.5 million is a true number,.. it really depends on when you start counting). None of those subs signed up for the NFL or NBA or NHL, or simply for the music... right? None of those 'subs' bought a car with the unit already active (which also means a car sitting on a Ford Car lot is considered an activce SIRI sub, even though the car hasn't been sold and nobody's listening)? They all did it for Howard?
Come on,.. you can't really believe that. I would say some of the 3.5, but not all. Even Wall St. estimates Howie got 1 million subs, and at this point, the 'Howard Stern' effect is over. Meaning any new subs can not be totally attributed Howard. So now what, SIRI is stuck paying 425 million over the next 4 1/4 years... Proof is in the stock price... it's currently below $4. SIRI needs to do something... as it stand now, they will be second XM for the foreseeable (XM has close to a 3 million sub lead and has more unit in cars because of the deals they have with the two biggest automakers GM and Toyota).
As for Oprah,.. she hasn't started boardcasting yet. I believe that starts next week. But based on her track record with her audience (any book she give book of the month status reaches number 1), it's fair to say XM will see a bump in the 3 qtr. and will continue through the holiday season (especially since the deal was only annouced this past summer). |
Howard didn't say that Sirius has more subscribers(even though that's obviously where they are heading). The 65% is in terms of sold radios since hes got there. And to say that Howard is only about 1 million subscribers is ludicrous. The music, NBA, and NFL have been there. When Howard signed on the subscriptions have gone up and to not acknowledge that Howard made that happen is insane.
Sirius isn't stuck with Howard I'm sure they are smiling every day with what has happened to this start up company. While XM are probably planting these 100% fake stories about Howard going back to free radio like their Oppy and Anthony who nobody would pay for, but a couple of thousand people if that which obviously is not the case for Howard. And yes Sirius lost money last year before Howard got there guess what it is a start up company and they are still building for the future and not only their subscribers now but the future subscribers you gotta spend money to make money. Sirius is fine. |
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TACH
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Howard didn't say that Sirius has more subscribers(even though that's obviously where they are heading). The 65% is in terms of sold radios since hes got there. And to say that Howard is only about 1 million subscribers is ludicrous. The music, NBA, and NFL have been there. When Howard signed on the subscriptions have gone up and to not acknowledge that Howard made that happen is insane.
Sirius isn't stuck with Howard I'm sure they are smiling every day with what has happened to this start up company. While XM are probably planting these 100% fake stories about Howard going back to free radio like their Oppy and Anthony who nobody would pay for, but a couple of thousand people if that which obviously is not the case for Howard. And yes Sirius lost money last year before Howard got there guess what it is a start up company and they are still building for the future and not only their subscribers now but the future subscribers you gotta spend money to make money. Sirius is fine. |
Okay,.. so I'll take your word over Wall Street. And people buy cars based on the radio in it too, right. 25% of SIRI subs come from car purchases (again, not my words, its fact, look it up)... I guess those people specifically bought a car because SIRI is now carrying Howie. I also guess its BS that SIRI growth estimates have been reduced by some on Wall St because of Ford and Chysler has decided to reduce production of auto?
In regards to the 65% market share, I was simply questioning the math (the original poster did not say 65% of the radio sold since Howie went to SIRI or is that 65% when Howie announced he was going to SIRI or is that 65% when he signed the contract with SIRI). My point... you can craft the numbers any way you want too,.. but the bottom line is SIRI is approx 3 million subs behind XM,.. about the same as it was on 12/31/05; the gap is not closing.
As far as the story of Howie being available on free radio... I acknowledge that Howie said it was BS. But since Howie is now on SIRI.... how is going to attract new listeners? Only people with SIRI can hear him. Most people who are loyal to Stern have already purchased a SIRI unit.
You can dis Oppy and Anthony all you want,.. but the deal XM did with CBS is a good one... win-win for both,.. that's not me talking... again that's Wall Street. Look it up...
I didn't say SIRI was stuck with Howie,.. I said SIRI is stuck paying him 425 million over the next 4 and quarter years. How many subs is he going to bring in in year two, three, or four? But I guess any new sub SIRI gets is soley because of Howie? Like a previous poster said... SIRI is absolutely bleeding cash....
Howie must be serving up some good kool-aid over there along with the funny math he's quoting.
Last edited by TACH on Wed Sep 20, 2006 3:03 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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