🏈NFL 2023 DISCUSSION THREAD🏈

[ChickenStu]

Verrrrrrrrry suspicious that Brady comes back and Arians departs. But I read Arians' farewell message and if he truly wanted Bowles to get a good team and is doing him a solid, good on him.

[angrypuppy]

[Palin]

Man NFL is 24/6. their offseason is better than NBA actual season

[SGV-Laker fan]

[angrypuppy]

I forgot to add: Leftwich and Brady would work together on developing a weekly game plan while Arians was out rehabbing his ankle. Arians would then redline their work, which undermined both of them (particularly Brady).

No, it wasn't paradise in Tampa Bay. I am convinced Brady wanted Arians out as a precondition to returning. Their styles conflicted, both in terms of offensive strategy and game-day preparation. The Bucs were only successful in 2021 when they abandoned that stupid "no risk it, no biscuit" offense and went with a more controlled offense. I'm sure that forced compromise never sat well with Arians either.

[adkindo]

[angrypuppy]

[venturalakersfan]

I think that Winston’s brief success with Payton supports your claim. As a Saints fan I am glad we brought back Winston, Arians had him in the unemployment line.
_________________
RIP mom. 11-21-1933 to 6-14-2023.

[LakerLanny]

[Basketball Fan]

He played for an eternity happy retirement.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/04/03/frank-gore-plans-to-sign-a-one-day-contract-to-retire-with-the-49ers/

[ChickenStu]

OK folks, it's been a while, so here's Mock Draft 2.0, as we're now less than 3 weeks away from the big event getting underway.

1. Jaguars
Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
After the Jags signed guard Brandon Scherff and franchise-tagged LT Cam Robinson in free agency, they telegraphed that they weren't going to pick an O-lineman here. Instead, Hutchinson, who tested extremely well athletically after a breakout season at Michigan, will almost certainly be the choice, with current odds of around -300 in most Vegas books.

2. Lions
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Willis' upside at the most important position in sports could mean that not only is he the first QB off the board, but that he goes a lot earlier than some expect. I don't think the Lions are going to tank, and they may not be in a position to be able to get CJ Stroud or Bryce Young next year. They may also not believe that there's a #1 pick type among the non-QB's if Hutchinson is off the board. I think it would simply come down to how much they like Willis. Lions coaches worked with him at the Senior Bowl, and it's worth noting that Willis is favored to be the first QB chosen as well as the favorite to be chosen 2nd overall.

3. Texans
Evan Neal, G/T, Alabama
This would likely come down to one of the top two OL (Ekwonu or Neal) or one of the next two pass rushers (likely Walker or Thibodeaux). For now I'm going to opt for Neal, by a hair.

4. Jets
Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
While Walker isn't a finished product as a pass rusher, he's already sturdy against the run, and he tested through the roof athletically, along with most of the Georgia defenders in this draft.

5. Giants
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Since the Giants know that the Panthers, at #6, won't draft a CB, they can take a top OL here and wait on Sauce Gardner at #7.

6. Panthers
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
The Panthers are borderline insane if they start Sam Darnold again this season. And while there's a chance that they could eventually swing a trade for Jimmy G, his health is still going to be a question mark as the draft commences. With obvious connections to coach Matt Rhule (he recruited him at Temple) and owner David Tepper (a Pitt alum), I think they could take the plunge.

7. Giants
Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
Here's where the G-Men get the cover man that didn't allow a single TD in his college career.

8. Falcons
Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
Yes, WR is a massive need, but with an early pick in Round 2, a good wideout will still be available. Meanwhile, with a total dearth of pass rush talent, and with the upside of Thibodeaux still on the board, Atlanta can't pass him up.

9. Seahawks
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
The tackle situation is dire, with soon-to-be 37-year-old LT Duane Brown a free agent and nothing of note at RT. Cross is -500 to go in the top 10.

10. Jets
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
The Jets have telegraphed their desire to add a big-time vertical wideout to the fold this offseason, showing interest in Amari Cooper and Tyreek Hill before they were dealt elsewhere. Wilson and Drake London are running neck-and-neck to be the first wideout chosen, and with Wilson's superior speed, I think he would be the choice.

11. Commanders
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Terry McLaurin is heading into a contract year. Curtis Samuel couldn't stay healthy last year. Head coach Ron Rivera hardly ever attends Pro Days, yet he was at Ohio State's last month, and in 3 of the 4 previous instances in which he did so, his team drafted a player from that Pro Day. With all of this info in hand, I'm going to guess that Olave would be the pick.

12. Vikings
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
While some teams may be wary of the fact that Stingley's best tape came in 2019 when he dominated the SEC as a freshman, others will look at the upside at what he did as a 19-year-old and see that he just ran a sub-4.4 40 at the LSU Pro Day, alleviating concerns about his Lisfranc injury suffered last year. He has ideal length and size and athleticism.

13. Texans
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Hamilton seems to be sliding due to a slower than expected 40 time, and with concerns that he may be part linebacker, part safety. Still, the Texans could end his slide here.

14. Ravens
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
The freakish Davis almost ran as fast as WR prospect David Bell at the Combine, and Bell was a highly productive Big 10 player. He's going to be a run-stuffer for sure, and the question will be if he can push the pocket and get into the backfield as well.

15. Eagles
Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
After the trade with the Saints, Philly now picks at #15 and #18. Johnson will bolster the pass rush while also providing sturdiness against the run, too.

16. Saints
Drake London, WR, USC
Some think the Saints could try to move both of the picks they have now (#16 and #19) in an effort to move up for a top-5 pick. And hey, maybe that happens. But I'm going to operate under the assumption that they are looking for a WR and LT in the top 20 selections, as both are huge needs. I also think the Saints believe they can win now with Jameis Winston. London has drawn Mike Evans comps, and adding him to Michael Thomas would give Winston a couple of strong weapons out wide.

17. Chargers
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
What the hell, let's get fun with this one, shall we? Yes, Williams might not be ready to play until November or so, and maybe he won't be back to his normal self until next year. But the thought of Williams catching passes from Justin Herbert for the next 10 years is pretty scintillating, as he is the best deep threat WR in this class, and the best receiver easily if health weren't a factor. The AFC West is an arms race, and with as much work as they did on the defense in the offseason, I could see this happening.

18. Eagles
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Three WR's in a row come off the board, as Philly adds Burks' rugged YAC game to the smooth DeVonta Smith.

19. Saints
Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
I've seen some intel that the Saints like this particular tackle prospect, so I'm going with a hunch that they would take him over Trevor Penning.

20. Steelers
Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Ridder has seemingly solidified himself as a 1st Round QB based on the latest reports, and I think the Steelers would like his mobility and leadership.

21. Patriots
Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Lloyd, Zion Johnson/Kenyon Green, or a CB make a lot of sense for the Pats. But I'm going with Lloyd as a catalyst in the middle of the defense.

22. Packers
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
What, not a WR here? Well, the Pack have another pick still to come in this round, and with the top 5 WR's all gone, this scenario calls for a player who can fill a huge RT need.

23. Cardinals
DeVonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Yet another Georgia defender comes off the board, the highly-athletic interior D-line disruptor that is Wyatt.

24. Cowboys
Zion Johnson, G, Boston College
Dallas is said to like both Penning and Smith, but both are gone. Burks and the top 5 WR's are gone, too. So perhaps this would come down to an iOL, either Linderbaum or one of Green/Johnson. Both Green and Johnson have visited with the Cowboys. Since Johnson also showed he could play center at the Senior Bowl, which would give the team more options (what to do with Biadasz, for example), I'll give him the nod.

25. Bills
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
McDuffie's tape is very strong and he was hardly even thrown on in college, locking down his side of the field. But he could slip a little bit because he's undersized and doesn't have lengthy arms. Still, the Bills have a gaping hole at CB2 at the moment, and this would make sense.

26. Titans
Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
Titans beat reporters are expecting this pick to be used on an offensive player, and with the top 5 WR's gone, I would expect this pick to be used on an OL, with QB a possibility as well. The OL has fallen off a bit, and this would be an attempt to plug a hole at guard.

27. Buccaneers
George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
With JPP a free agent and with this team loving to have depth on the D-line, I think Karlaftis could be the choice. Personally, I like him more than Jermaine Johnson, who was taken 12 picks earlier in this mock.

28. Packers
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
Watson has put himself in the next tier of WR's after the top 5, and he seems like the type the Packers would like. He has blinding sub-4.3 speed and he's a big guy, too. Think a faster and bigger version of their former WR Valdes-Scantling, but with more upside.

29. Chiefs
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
KC has lost Tyreek Hill and added JuJu Smith-Schuster and MVS this offseason. With JuJu dealing with recent injury issues and MVS not being someone I would exactly call a reliable pass-catcher, I think Dotson's speed and inside-outside versatility could be valued by the Chiefs here.

30. Chiefs
Kaair Elam, CB, Florida
KC lost 2 CB's this offseason, so to fill that need, they take a press corner with good size and NFL pedigree in Elam.

31. Bengals
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
If Linderbaum falls this far, he would complete an impressive makeover of the OL in just one offseason.

32. Seahawks
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
TRADE!
Seattle is scheduled to pick at #40 and #41. I could see them wanting to ensure that 5th year option on Corral by making him a 1st Round pick, not to mention that there's no guarantee that Corral will be on the board at #40. So Detroit agrees to move down 8 spots and picks up #40 and #109 overall, an early 4th Round choice. There's a Pete Carroll/Lane Kiffin connection here, as Kiffin was Corral's coach at Ole Miss.

[LongBeachPoly]

[angrypuppy]

I'll get going on a mock draft, I just need some time to look at the tape.

In terms of ChickenStu's mock, I think Devin Lloyd is a bit light for a Belichick LB as he errs on the side of size at the expense of coverage. I am inclined to believe that Tampa Bay will prioritize a DT or CB. Suh is getting long in the tooth and remains unsigned. I thought the Buc GM Licht erred badly last season by not drafting a CB early, that second round pick spent on Trask was just plain stupid. This season he'll need to spend early draft capital on two CBs, by at least the fourth round. JPP's replacement (if he doesn't come back cheap) will likely be Tryon-Shoyinka. Tryon-Shoyinka didn't impress me last season, far from it, but given their other needs the Bucs may have to hope for a second-year performance jump. The OLB the Bucs should have picked-up was Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who should not have dropped into the second round for Cleveland. I mentioned last year that JOK may end up being a very good chess piece, at the very least.

[LakerLanny]

Pickett at 6 is a major reach in my opinion. I am not sold on him at all.

Willis at 2 probably too high also, but the Lions need to take a swing for the franchise changing QB instead of drafting a friggen safety as I have seen in other mock drafts.

Willis has intriguing skills, roll the dice I say.
_________________
Love, Laker Lanny

[jonnybravo]

[ChickenStu]

[32]

Wow.

[ChickenStu]

[ChickenStu]

Some draft chatter I've gathered, as we're now only 6 days away:

--Devonte Wyatt is falling and may fall out of the 1st Round entirely, due to prior domestic violence incidents on his record. Couple that with the fact that he's already "old" for a prospect, having just turned 24, and I get the sense he could drop out of the top 32.

--David Ojabo (despite the Achilles injury), Boye Mafe, Arnold Ebiketie, and even Logan Hall are edge rushers who still have a shot to go late in Round 1.

--Daxton Hill is really well-liked by a lot of teams and I'm seeing a lot of chatter of him to the Patriots at #21 overall.

--Nobody seems to have a clear consensus on where the QB's are going. That said, the two most likely landing spots for Willis are probably Detroit or Pittsburgh (via trade up). The two most likely landing spots for Pickett are Carolina or New Orleans. The two most likely spots for Ridder are probably Pittsburgh (if they don't come away with Willis) or Tennessee, and the two most likely spots for Corral are probably Seattle or Tennessee.

--Specifically regarding the possibility of a QB to Carolina at #6, it's noteworthy that Carolina conveniently has the cap space to absorb either Mayfield or Jimmy G, are right in range for a LT choice, and, without a 2nd or 3rd Round pick, are also in prime position to trade down.

--Stingley seems to have a great shot to wind up in the top 10, with the Giants and Seahawks as the most likely spots.

--Although there's no clear consensus on where the top WR's will end up, the thought is that Jameson Williams' ACL recovery is coming along so well that he has a shot to be the first or second WR off the board, and is a likely top-17 pick. (I say "17" because I don't think the Chargers would let him slip past them.)

[ChickenStu]

With 5 days to go, here's my latest mock. I'll probably do one more (and final) version, likely on Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

1. Jaguars
Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
I just can't believe that Baalke would be so vindictive as to not pick Hutchinson just because he's a Jim Harbaugh-coached player. Walker simply doesn't have the production to match, and Hutchinson is almost as good of an athlete anyway.

2. Lions
Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
I think the other consideration here is Willis, and if they don't think Walker is a perennial Pro Bowl kind of talent and if they don't think Thibodeaux is the right culture fit, then I think Willis could happen. Still, for now, I'll opt for the betting favorite in this slot, Walker.

3. Texans
Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
The wind seems to be blowing for the Sauce to land in Houston.

4. Jets
Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
I thought that the fact that Mekhi Becton didn't show up to voluntary workouts could be a bad sign of friction between he and the team, but apparently the team was aware he wouldn't show because his girlfriend was about to go into labor, and Becton had been working out while away from the team with an OL coach. Amid reports that Thibodeaux's meeting with the team went well, I'll guess he's the choice.

5. Giants
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Reports on Stingley have been positive lately, and the Giants are known to have heavy interest in both he and Sauce Gardner. With another pick at 7 and with OL needs as well, in this case the Giants know that one of the top 2 OL will be there at #7, and while the Panthers at 6 aren't likely to take Stingley, there's always a chance that a team could trade up and steal him away before the Giants pick again at 7.

6. Panthers
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Most reporters connected to the Panthers now expect this pick to be made on an OL if they don't trade down, and the Panthers have kept open enough cap space to absorb the contracts of either Jimmy G or Mayfield, which probably isn't a coincidence. Ekwonu is said to be their preferred OL of choice. It's also worth noting that coach Matt Rhule contractually has final say on the draft, meaning that I am not sure that he wants to try to save his job with a rookie QB, even one he is familiar with like Pickett.

7. Giants
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
The Giants get their OL here with Neal, but they would also be happy with Ewkonu if the Panthers preferred Neal instead.

8. Steelers
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
TRADE! I have settled on the notion that either the Lions or the Steelers will come away with Willis, and if Willis doesn't go at #2 overall to the Lions, the Steelers will have to come up for him, likely in the 5-8 range. In this case, the Giants and Panthers had players they really liked on the board, so they didn't trade back. But with Atlanta, there could be a trade match. Pittsburgh knows that Seattle, picking next, could be threats for Willis, increasing their motivation to get a deal done, and if Atlanta isn't in the 2022 QB business, then they should be heavily interested in squeezing draft capital out of the Steelers in 2023 and beyond, which would increase their odds of landing either Bryce Young or CJ Stroud in next year's draft. Pittsburgh gives up #20 overall, a 1st and a 3rd next year, as well as a 2nd in 2024, and in return gets this pick plus a 2023 5th from the Panthers.

9. Chargers
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
TRADE! Seattle often trades down, and although they obviously have a dire tackle situation, I could see them preferring a more mauling tackle to Cross. So they find a trade partner with the Chargers, who surrender their 2023 1st to move up from #17 to take a fellow pass pro maven in Cross. He and Slater could form a wall around Herbert for the next few years, at least. For their part, the Chargers get this pick and a 2023 4th from Seattle.

10. Jets
Drake London, WR, USC
The Jets have been trying to land a stud WR all offseason, so here with their second 1st rounder they get the big-bodied London as an X receiver complement to Elijah Moore into the future. London and Garrett Wilson are still close in the betting odds to be the first WR chosen.

11. Commanders
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
I believe this pick will be one of the Ohio State WR's, and in this case they are both still left. Wilson it is.

12. Vikings
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
This one would be a lot of fun, as Minnesota is switching to a base 11 personnel offense under Kevin O'Connell. So how about pairing Justin Jefferson with the speed-burning Williams into the future? And oh by the way, Adam Thielen is still there, though for how much longer, who knows.

13. Packers
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
TRADE! It's a run on WR's, folks. I believe that the Packers love Olave, and they have to know that not only would he obviously not be there if they wait until their scheduled pick at #22, but that it's possible all of the top 5 WR's won't be there at that spot. They have the necessary ammo to move up, and the Texans should be willing to stockpile as many picks as they can for their rebuild. In this case, it's a perfect value match on the trade chart for the Packers to give #22 and #53 overall to move up to this spot.

14. Ravens
Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Daniel Jeremiah has been as plugged in as anyone when it comes to what the Ravens like to do, and he believes that the team would not pass on Davis if he is still there, among the realistic options. They could see him as their new Haloti Ngata.

15. Eagles
Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
Johnson has fallen a little bit in this mock, and Philly would probably be happy to add him to their edge rush crew.

16. Saints
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
Some teams might be scared of Pickett's smallish hands, as he's had fumbling issues especially in colder weather, but playing half his games in a dome and playing in a division that includes road games in Tampa (warm weather) and Atlanta (another dome) should mitigate those concerns. Pickett's calling card is accuracy in the short to intermediate areas of the field, and at least stylistically, that sounds like a similar player to Drew Brees.

17. Seahawks
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
TRADE! After the move down with the Chargers, Seattle gets the mauling Penning, whom they may see as a better fit than Cross for the type of offense they want to play.

18. Eagles
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Philly would probably be happy to nab the falling Hamilton in this spot, as they need help at both safety and LB, and Hamilton may be a hybrid player of sorts.

19. Saints
Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
I'm all-in on intel that the Saints happen to love this particular tackle prospect.

20. Falcons
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
TRADE! After the move down with the Steelers, Atlanta addresses a big WR need with Burks, who is a YAC machine and as a bigger body, I could see Arthur Smith with AJ Brown visions in his head.

21. Patriots
Daxton Hill, DB, Michigan
As I mentioned in my previous post, a lot of mock drafters I respect are making this connection, and have noted that Belichick loves the Michigan pipeline for draftees, not just Alabama, which is more commonly referred to.

22. Texans
Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
TRADE! After the move down with the Packers, the Texans get a potential leader in the middle of their defense with Lloyd, who also offers pass rush juice along with his tackling and playmaking ability.

23. Cardinals
George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
Edge rusher is a huge need after Chandler Jones left, and Karlaftis had an official 30 visit with the team. This is also by far the most popularly mocked player to the team in many of the mocks I trust.

24. Cowboys
Zion Johnson, iOL, Boston College
Johnson would fill a need on the iOL for the 'Boys, and Johnson, who met with the team officially, also may have guard/center versatility.

25. Bills
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
McDuffie has been an exceptional cover man in the Pac-12, but might slip just a bit due to a possible concern over his lack of arm length, which is under 29 inches. Still, on a team with a clear CB need, this is great value for the Bills.

26. Titans
Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
The Titans can save nearly $18MM off next year's cap if they move on from Tannehill, so Ridder could be the guy next season. The Titans figure to be one of the teams that values him for his leadership and moxie, and he was a 4-year starter (and winner) at Cincinnati.

27. Buccaneers
Kenyon Green, iOL, Texas A&M
I think this would be a spot where Devonte Wyatt could also make sense, but I think he might drop out of the 1st Round due to a combination of off-the-field concerns (there are previous domestic violence incidents on his record) and his age, as he's already 24. So with Green a consensus top-2 guard prospect and with an obvious need in front of Tom Brady, they make him the choice. Gotta protect the GOAT as best as you can!

28. Packers
Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
The Packers love exceptional athletes in the front 7, and Dean also offers pass rush juice as well, despite being slightly undersized. This is another spot where Wyatt could make sense, if he stays in Round 1.

29. Chiefs
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Dotson is speedy and has inside/outside versatility, and I'd view him as a little more likely than other WR possibilities here like Watson, Pickens, or Skyy Moore.

30. Chiefs
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
KC lost both Ward and Hughes in free agency, and similarly to Buffalo, CB is a huge need on an obvious Super Bowl contender. Gordon formed a great tandem with McDuffie at Washington and has ideal size and length.

31. Bengals
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
The Bengals defense got better as the season progressed, but at the moment Eli Apple is still penciled in as a starter. Booth met with the team on an official visit and could help right away.

32. Lions
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
I believe my last iteration had the Seahawks trading back into the 1st Round for Matt Corral, and while that still could happen, the O/U for QB's in Round 1 is 2.5, so Corral would make 4, and that might be overkill. Instead, perhaps the Lions would take the likely S3 on many teams' boards (with Hamilton and Hill being considered safeties, though Hill can also act as a nickel CB).

[LakerLanny]

Supposedly it is a lock that Jacksonville is taking Walker with the first pick. Baalke reaching?
_________________
Love, Laker Lanny

[adkindo]

[adkindo]

[ChickenStu]

[ChickenStu]