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mad55557777
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 Posted: Mon Jul 10, 2023 9:40 am Post subject: |
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| vasashi17+ wrote: | ^Yep @mad, if you offload Vando for a vet min (~2.3m), then we should be able to duck the tax and won’t experiences any surprises since Vando’s unlikely incentives would be outbound. We’d be able to trade Vando for a vet min salaried at least to that amount via the 200% +250k trade multiplier allowable for teams below the 1st Apron to make using salary structures in those smaller amounts.
I believe Utah, SA, Indy & Orlando all still have at least that amount of cap space remaining to completely offload Vando into.
Also, if Utah operates above the cap, they have numerous TPEs that they can absorb Vando completely into. In addition, ATL, Boston, BK, Dallas, Miami, Phx, Pdx and DC all have notable TPEs that could completely take in Vando, but we gotta be mindful in how eager tax paying teams wound be in adding to their bills, in order to have us duck ours. |
i think a 2nd round pick might be worth it if we can reset the luxury tax, but it also might not matter since LBJ will be gone in a year or 2 anyways., |
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gng930
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| Posted: Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:53 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah my feeling is that they have foregone any potential 2024 reset with Lebron/AD not yet committed either way; at least it's apparent to me with all the player options they granted. They're likely to be a cap-space team in summer 2025 though and thus likely out of luxury tax territory. They need at least one non-tax year out of this one or the next to reset the repeater tax:
1. 2023-2024: Borderline tax team
2. 2024-2025: Potential tax team (namely dependent on Lebron staying or going)
3. 2025-2026: Cap-space team (max FA or two?) with no major raises due, likely to avoid the tax
4. 2026-2027: Austin and maybe Rui potentially due for a raise, high probability they will be a tax team depending on what they do with the cap-space during the prior year
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vasashi17+
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| Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2023 9:42 am Post subject: |
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Heard we could be in the repeater tax this year…how could we possibly duck it this year to set ourselves for a full reset on the repeater tax if we also somehow duck it for the 2024/25 season as well?
Recall that the more punitive tax bands will come into effect by the 2025/26 season. So most tax averse teams would want to be nowhere near repeater tax territory by then. That gives the Lakers the next 2 seasons to do a full reset to their current repeater tax offender status. You are classified a repeat tax offender if in the previous 4 season window, you’ve been a taxpayer in at least 3 of those seasons.
So hypothetically, if we duck the tax bill this season, we would still be classified a repeat tax offender for the 2024/25 season if we somehow land in tax territory at the end of that season.
2019/20: non taxpayer
2020/21: taxpayer
2021/22: taxpayer
2022/23: taxpayer
2023/24: repeat offender status, but soft reset if no tax bill
2024/25: still considered repeat offender, but can do a full reset to status by once again ducking the tax bill
2025/26: first season where more punitive tax bands come into play
| Quote: | New tax bands are displayed below and note that 10m above the tax line (ie the 3rd tax band) reflects far more punitive tax rates
Non-repeater Tax / Repeater Tax rates are as follows (total tax amounts for each band are within parentheses):
$0 - 4.99m ———> 1.00 (5m) / 3.00 (15m)
$5m - 9.99m ——> 1.25 (6.25m) / 3.25 (16.25m)
$10m - 14.99m —> 3.50 (17.5m) / 5.50 (27.5m)
$15m - 19.99m —> 4.75 (23.75m) / 6.75 (33.75m)
$20m - 24.99m —> 5.25 (26.25m) / 7.25 (36.25m)
$25m - 29.99m —> 5.75 (28.75m) / 7.75 (38.75m)
$30m - 34.99m —> 6.25 (31.25m) / 8.25 (41.25m)
$35m - 39.99m —> 6.75 (33.75m) / 8.75 (43.75m)
$40m - 44.99m —> 7.25 (36.25m) / 9.25 (46.25m)
$45m - 49.99m —> 7.75 (38.75m) / 9.75 (48.75m)
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We do not know the dates to the start of the season, end of the season & most importantly how many days apply towards the new season, with the new in-season tourney taking effect this year. Last season had 174 days total and rumor has it that the in-season tourney will add roughly 10 more days to the season this year. So let’s assume we will have 184 total days to this coming regular season and that number is necessary to work our proration rates towards a 14th roster addition to our current squad. Also take into consideration that teams can only roster below 14 for up to 2 weeks at a time during the regular season.
•Aug 7th is when we could first trade JHS & possibly MaxL
•Dec 15th is when we could first trade Gabe, Prince, Hayes & Cam
•Jan 5th is when a team can start to sign 10-day contracts
•Jan 7th is when nonguaranteed deals must be waived by to allow 48 hours to pass thru the wire before they become fully guaranteed on cut-down day
•Jan 10th is cut-down day when nonguaranteed deals become fully guaranteed for the season; on this day, any remaining MLEs begin to prorate downwards, unlike the vet min exceptions that start to prorate downwards on the first day of the regular season
•Jan 15th is when we found first trade DLo, Reaves & Rui
•Feb 9th is the trade deadline
Spotrac currently has the Lakers at 1.44m in wiggle before hitting the 165.3m tax line. Recall that any roster addition, whether it’s a rookie or a 10+ seasoned vet will lead to a cap hit of a 2+ seasoned vet guy, which is 2m. If we roster a 14th for the entire regular season, we project to be in breach of the tax threshold by roughly 550k. That also does not take into consideration the 700k & 145k “unlikely” incentives of DLo & Vando, respectively. If they both hit on those performance incentives, we’d be roughly 1.4m above the tax line at the end of the regular season and would be on tab for the repeater tax bill of 3.5m.
One scenario where we can safely duck this possibility is by either swapping out Vando’s potential 4.8m cap hit for a 2.25m minimum salaried player, or swapping out DLo’s potential 18m cap hit for roughly a 16m salaried player.
However if we were to retain those players and let’s assume both their “unlikely” incentives apply as “likely” cap hits at the end of the season, then we would have to play a systematic game of hop scotch throughout the remainder of the regular season using 10 day contracts in between each 2 week window past cut-down day.
Assuming the regular season will end sometime during mid-April, there are roughly 4 10-day windows in between each 2 week window beginning from Jan 7th. That means we can hand out 4 10-day contracts to either 2 different players (w/ each only allowed to play up to 2 such contracts for a team during the season), or up to 4 different players. Also those 10-day contracts come out to roughly 110k each based on the proration of a 2+ seasoned vet. So a potential total of about 440k would apply as a cap hit towards our books from Jan 7th to the projected last day of the season in mid-April.
So from the start of the season till Jan 7th, we could offer a 14th rostered player a fully nonguaranteed vet min deal before waiving them before cut-down day. The proration on that type of deal would be about 1m.
So in combining prorated salaries of a 14th nonguaranteed player at the start of the season (1m) before cutting them and handing out 4 10-day contracts to lead up to the end of the season (440k), we would be looking at roughly the difference in wiggle at what Spotrac currently projects us in having before hitting the tax line.
This is possibly the plan we look to take in attempting to duck the repeater tax this season. However, if we want to safely clear that tax threshold, we have to consider offloading contracts for marginally less, especially those of DLo & Vando in considering their pesky “unlikely” incentives.
Needless to say, this scenario means no RoS deals and/or use of the 1.9m remaining from our ntpMLE, which means we won’t be a likely destination for buyoutSZN armed & willing to only hand out 10-day deals in order to dick the tax. Offload enough salary by the deadline however and then buyout candidates are back on the menu.
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Aeneas Hunter
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Joined: 12 Jul 2005
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| Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:01 am Post subject: |
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| vasashi17+ wrote: | | Also take into consideration that teams can only roster below 14 for up to 2 weeks at a time during the regular season. |
For a total of 28 days. I don't think that the hopscotch strategy is really under consideration anyway. I think we'll sign a vet min, then decide whether to make a move to cut payroll.
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gng930
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| Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2023 9:21 pm Post subject: |
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Can't you also avoid the tax by trading away a minimum player at the deadline and then signing an RoS contract in the buyout market? 2+ million out, ~650K in by my calculations. Maybe there's even enough room to use some pro-rated amount of that remaining ntpMLE for the RoS?
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vasashi17+
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| Posted: Fri Aug 04, 2023 8:57 am Post subject: |
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^Yep @AH, it’s terrible strategy to hopscotch thru the season and I hope that ain’t the plan, especially with Bron/AD both coming off leg injuries last season 😜
@G, your scenario works too! My scenario was given in case those “unlikely” DLo/Vando incentives convert and end up hitting our books. I just wanted to demonstrate a scenario where those dudes ain’t salary dumped and remain on the roster, yet we have enough wiggle in case their incentives do end up becoming “likely”.
Either way it’s gonna be close and I anticipate we do end up dumping some salary at some point during the season.
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vasashi17+
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| Posted: Thu Aug 31, 2023 6:57 am Post subject: |
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No 🧢, it’s time to know cap…
The new cap king Coon version of the CBA bible will be released some time before late October.
| Quote: | Tim Cato: Today, Coon’s FAQs — he says he’s currently entered into his customary “blackout mode” writing the 2023 iteration for the new CBA, which he will complete before this coming season — are considered the foremost publicly available resource for interpreting the salary-cap rules. “It’s a rite of passage,” says Monte McNair, the Sacramento Kings’ general manager who remembers reading Coon’s FAQ shortly after being hired by the Houston Rockets in 2007. “It’s still one of the first things I recommend to new hires or folks looking to break (into the league).” Coon’s trust comes not just from his meticulousness, but the extensive relationships he built with front office executives around the league.
https://theathletic.com/4816071/2023/08/30/larry-coon-nba-salary-cap/
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Y’all already know, once available, the link to the capfather’s new FAQ will be posted here.
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vasashi17+
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Posts: 5420
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| Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2023 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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As of Sept 5 2023, roster stands as:
1. Bron 47.61m
2. AD 40.6m
3. DLo 17.31m
4. Rui 15.74m
5. Reaves 12.02m
6. Gabe 10.5m
7. Vando 4.7m
8. Prince 4.52m
9. JHS 3.7m
10. Wood 2.71m
11. Cam 2.17m
12. Hayes 2.17m
13. MaxC 1.72m
14. MLewis 1.12m
•Two-way: Castleton, Hodge, Fudge $0
•Partial MLE remaining: 1.9m (potential 4yr 8.2m deal)
•4 minimum TPEs remaining varying from 1.8m - 2.7m expiring on 2/9/24
= 166.56m (1.27m breach past the 165.29m tax line leading to a 3.17m repeater tax bill); CWood’s minimum deal counts as a 2.71m tax hit since he is a 7 year seasoned vet and has a player option like Cam & Hayes leading to them not counting as 2m cap hits instead (ie 2 year seasoned vet mins).
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mad55557777
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| Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2023 9:12 pm Post subject: |
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| ^i can totally see a move in season to get under and reset the tax. |
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vasashi17+
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| Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2023 9:25 pm Post subject: |
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@mad: totally agree with you bro! Also to take into consideration is that DLo & Vando’s “unlikely” incentives could turn “likely” by the end of the year. In that case, that’s an additional 845k to consider towards team salary. If they remain as is, the tax bill would then be 5.3m (reflecting the 2.12m in breach of the tax line).
I’m thinking Vando’s 4.7m gets moved for a vet min deal (~2m) closer to the trade deadline. Then depending on how much wiggle we have at that point, they could turn to the prorated remaining MLE to poach a buyout candidate for the remainder of the season.
Of course, a bigger move involving larger salary could also be at play with the baked in NTC in the DLo 1+1 reup being negotiated out. Unlike a potential Vando trade that could happen right now, a DLo trade has to wait till Dec 15th.
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mad55557777
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2023 9:18 am Post subject: |
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| vasashi17+ wrote: | @mad: totally agree with you bro! Also to take into consideration is that DLo & Vando’s “unlikely” incentives could turn “likely” by the end of the year. In that case, that’s an additional 845k to consider towards team salary. If they remain as is, the tax bill would then be 5.3m (reflecting the 2.12m in breach of the tax line).
I’m thinking Vando’s 4.7m gets moved for a vet min deal (~2m) closer to the trade deadline. Then depending on how much wiggle we have at that point, they could turn to the prorated remaining MLE to poach a buyout candidate for the remainder of the season.
Of course, a bigger move involving larger salary could also be at play with the baked in NTC in the DLo 1+1 reup being negotiated out. Unlike a potential Vando trade that could happen right now, a DLo trade has to wait till Dec 15th. |
In theory, they can trade players away into TPM or a team with cap room without taking salary back right? Then maybe find prorated buyout guys to lower the salary by 1.5 mil ish? I mean if we are this close to the tax line, why not just go under and reset the repeater tax. |
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gng930
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2023 2:50 pm Post subject: |
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Didn't realize Wood's cap hit would be higher but yeah that PO really throws things off. I'm not sure they can get under the tax at this point without trading a non-min player like Vando or Prince. And that is without even considering the unlikely incentives for DLO and Vando that's been cited. Can they still deal out one of Reddish/Hayes and then play hop-scotch with 10-days and maybe an RoS to avoid that tax?
If the deadline is 60 days before the end of the season like it was last season and you have a 14-day reprieve from the 14-player requirement, that means you have to sign five 10-day contracts. Last year the minimum was over 60K (for a rookie) so you figure over 65K this year. I'm not sure if they automatically assign a 2-year vet cap hit though like they do for UFDAs. And you have to account for the last-day RoS contract(s) ala Tristan/Harrison they will probably want to sign to field 15 going in to the playoffs.
It seems like the nuclear option may be, short of Wood being a disaster, to just try and dump both Reddish and Hayes before the deadline. That should free them up to even use the rest of that prorated MLE on a buyout player.
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dcarter4kobe
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2023 11:26 am Post subject: |
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Does anyone know DLo or Vando incentives?
I believe the most likely scenario is Hayes or Reddish being salary dumped at the deadline along with cash to get under the cap. Would also have enough wiggle room to add 2 prorated vet min players as the season progresses. Dumping just 1 of them would allow the Lakers to get 900K under the tax. Enough to sign one replacement player at deadline and the 15th guy closer to the end of the regular season
*dependent on those incentives
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Last edited by dcarter4kobe on Tue Sep 19, 2023 11:38 am; edited 1 time in total |
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dcarter4kobe
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| Posted: Tue Sep 19, 2023 11:35 am Post subject: |
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Also the fact that we are so close to tax will forever confuse me on the Rui overpay by 2-3M a year. There wasnt a market at all. PJ Washington the much better player so far, only got 3y/46.5M
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vasashi17+
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:33 am Post subject: |
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@dc4k: yeah, I’m not understanding how they didn’t thread the needle more precisely since the bulk of the team cap was done in-house & you’d think they had a safe projection on how much it would take to still be under the tax line after they went out-house with other FAs, considering they knew they only had the ntpMLE (with Gabe not even getting the full exception amount), BAE and vet mins to hand out in that regard and those amounts were generally known even with the new CBA & cap projections not entirely specific with the figures yet.
Either way, based on Spotrac, we are currently 1.265m above the tax line and when you consider the “unlikely” 845k in incentives towards DLo & Vando, we’d have to offload marginally more than 2.11m to safely stay under the tax…if such a move still keeps us at a rostered 14.
However as you suggested, simply dumping either Cam or Hayes 2.165m at the trade deadline will not get it done since the prorated Rest-of-Season (RoS) vet min is based off the 2+ seasoned veteran amount of 2.02m and if we roster a 14th to a RoS deal after dumping Cam or Hayes then that puts us right in danger of breaching the tax line again, since that prorated amount would come out to roughly 766k if the player was signed a day after the trade deadline.
They would have to do a complicated rope-a-dope cycle of 2 weeks off and a 10-day contract signed in between each biweekly interval till the season ended. Which 10-day dopeS could we find to rope-in in pulling off such a scheme? And that’s dopeS as in plural since we can’t sign 1 dope, uh dude to more than 2 10-day deals for the season. Either way, I’m sure there aren’t many out there that we could find, which is why imho that may not be the wisest way to stay under the tax line either.
As for the “unlikely” incentives, nothing has been reported on in terms of DLo’s. We know it’s 700k for each of the season in his deal and if they are performing based, then he obviously didn’t attain that baseline last year, which is why they classified as “unlikely”. I’m assuming it’s highly likely that it has something to do with defensive metrics haha.
As for Vando, he’s got both “likely” (58k) & “unlikely” (145k) incentives in his deal this year. We don’t know the specifics to his “likely” incentives, but we do know his “unlikely” incentives are based off of dreb%. Considering that they are still “unlikely” and he got 15.3% of drebs last season, I’m assuming the incentives turn “likely” off a higher %age.
Hope that answers it for you, but I’d be remiss to not state that I’m no fan of ducking the tax bill. I had hoped they conducted business this summer with just a last ditch effort of Bron/AD led championship in mind and not having to budget that goal.
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dcarter4kobe
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| Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2023 10:46 am Post subject: |
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Have never been a fan of ducking the tax either. But as we both have stated it doesnt make sense to stay over by a mill or 2. Especially when it's a soft reset. If a trade is there where we have to increase salary to get better I hope we don't think twice.
Seeing that the incentives are unlikely and they didnt reach them last season with less depth on the roster, I'm going to assume they don't reach the incentives.
Dumping Cam or Hayes at the deadline (2/8) would put us at about 899K under the tax and 13 players. If we wait the max 2 weeks to sign a guy, it would be about 25 games left on 02/22 (50 Days remaining). Pro rated vet min is about 25K a game or 124K per 10 Day (roughly). That would be about a 625K payroll hit for the 14th guy. Leaving about 270K left for the 15th roster spot (Can wait until last day of season again or about 2 10 Day contracts)
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