Russian invasion of Ukraine discussion
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kikanga
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 14, 2022 11:41 pm    Post subject:

LakerLanny wrote:

My opinion: The United States cannot be the world's policeman. If other countries in Europe closer to Russia can't/won't step up, the last thing we should do is get involved in a direct military confrontation with Russia.

I don't support countries being attacked, but we can't go this alone and I don't want to see American armed forces wounded/killed over a dispute that doesn't involve us.


I see both sides to this. It's tough. I reluctantly agree.

I agree for the reasons you mentioned.

But I'm reluctant because if the roles were reversed. And I lived in a small country being attacked by a larger neighbor. I'd probably want support from anywhere I could get it.

This is one of those "where do you draw the line" sort of things. Cause I'm sure if Putin was planning to genocide millions of people. The choice for intervention would be obvious. But that raises another question about, "does it have to get to the point of mass murder for intervention to be justified?" There is a spectrum between enslavement, human rights abuses, and treating people like second class citizens that is appalling as well. But I don't think that is enough for alot of people when it comes to intervention. And if we're gonna police the whole world, that opens up the bag of worms of, "should we be compensated for that?"

So many variables, its a cluster (bleep) the more you think about it.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:01 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
tlim wrote:
The Russians and Ukrainians who work as contractors don't believe the BS Russia is pushing off. They all think it's Russia pushing their bogus agenda.

But like the Iraq war was for me, when I knew they blatantly lied about the WMD (and the intel was made up), it doesn't seem to matter what the people think. It will just simply happen.

The intel wasn't "made up" before the Iraq War.


what about Senior Bush and the fake satellite images of Iraqi tanks prepared to attack Kuwait?
The fake report that Iraqi Red Guard were going through hospitals and throwing incubators on the floor with babies in them??

What makes you think we didn't lie about WMD to get into the War?
We already knew Saddam had never attacked America or American forces (unprovoked). Whole war was planned before 9/11

Remember these
“Foreign Suitors for Iraqi Oilfield Contracts.” The documents are dated March 2001.
https://www.judicialwatch.org/maps-and-charts-of-iraqi-oil-fields/


Arab Spring was our doing from my understanding.. We wanted the Arab countries to not work together and never form the Arab Petrodollar

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governator
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:29 am    Post subject:

More akin to China and North Korea except Ukraine is much wealthier and stronger. Neither would have a US military base/ally at their border
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:58 am    Post subject: Re: Is what Russia is doing with Ukraine similar to what Nazi Germany did to Czechoslovakia?

Omar Little wrote:
but if he can turn the western alliance into a fractured bunch of tribes, he can get what he wants.


I think it is already there. I do believe or hope that if things got bad/very serious, those alliances would strengthen again out of necessity......but there are real fractures right now.

Putin wants NATO to agree to not admit Ukraine....it is really that simple. If you were Putin, would you feel any different? It would be like Mexico or Canada entering a defense alliance with China. I think the US would go to fairly extreme measures to prevent that from happening. I absolutely do not think the US/NATO should agree to exclude Ukraine to pacify Putin. Similar to Hitler, giving in on Ukraine would simply embolden Putin to begin making demands related to Lativa, Estonia, etc.

If NATO was as strong as it should be....or could be....Putin would not be acting in this manner. In the end, Putin will only go as far as he is allowed to go without any real threat of military pushback from NATO and/or the West. Russia and China are a legit threat, but they would be crushed by NATO (US, UK, Canada, France, Germany Italy, etc.) Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, etc.
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2022 1:01 pm    Post subject:

The situation is just ridiculous....The way to handle it should be to have every NATO country immediately impose strict sanctions on Russia (crippling their economy), and not ease up until all troops are withdrawn. Countries are being weak because oil / natural gas prices are already high, and because they will go much higher without Russia.
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lakersken80
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2022 2:13 pm    Post subject:

leor_77 wrote:
The situation is just ridiculous....The way to handle it should be to have every NATO country immediately impose strict sanctions on Russia (crippling their economy), and not ease up until all troops are withdrawn. Countries are being weak because oil / natural gas prices are already high, and because they will go much higher without Russia.


Well thats the pretty obvious reason why they can't. They rely on Russia for gas and oil. Even if Europe transitions to a mostly green energy future, Russia because of its vast resources will be a hydrogen exporter. In short Europe will be dependent on Russia.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2022 2:45 pm    Post subject:

ContagiousInspiration wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
tlim wrote:
The Russians and Ukrainians who work as contractors don't believe the BS Russia is pushing off. They all think it's Russia pushing their bogus agenda.

But like the Iraq war was for me, when I knew they blatantly lied about the WMD (and the intel was made up), it doesn't seem to matter what the people think. It will just simply happen.

The intel wasn't "made up" before the Iraq War.


what about Senior Bush and the fake satellite images of Iraqi tanks prepared to attack Kuwait?
The fake report that Iraqi Red Guard were going through hospitals and throwing incubators on the floor with babies in them??

What makes you think we didn't lie about WMD to get into the War?
We already knew Saddam had never attacked America or American forces (unprovoked). Whole war was planned before 9/11

Remember these
“Foreign Suitors for Iraqi Oilfield Contracts.” The documents are dated March 2001.
https://www.judicialwatch.org/maps-and-charts-of-iraqi-oil-fields/

Arab Spring was our doing from my understanding.. We wanted the Arab countries to not work together and never form the Arab Petrodollar

NO DEMOCRACY for Iranians Courtesy USA/UK
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=operation+ajax

The information that Sadam had WMDs was correct but the amount/condition of those weapons was grossly exaggerated.

I don't know what to tell you if you believe Iraq didn't invade Kuwait or that the U.S. started the Arab Spring.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2022 2:47 pm    Post subject:

leor_77 wrote:
The situation is just ridiculous....The way to handle it should be to have every NATO country immediately impose strict sanctions on Russia (crippling their economy), and not ease up until all troops are withdrawn. Countries are being weak because oil / natural gas prices are already high, and because they will go much higher without Russia.

Exactly this. Impose at least some sanctions for the threatening posture.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2022 6:46 am    Post subject:

leor_77 wrote:
The situation is just ridiculous....The way to handle it should be to have every NATO country immediately impose strict sanctions on Russia (crippling their economy), and not ease up until all troops are withdrawn. Countries are being weak because oil / natural gas prices are already high, and because they will go much higher without Russia.


Some of this is related to the smoke and mirror's game Germany has played with energy to pacify the domestic environmentalist. They have shut down much of their domestic energy production with the claim of using foreign energy as a bridge to more environmentally friendly domestic energy.....but their long term plan is dubious at best. Either way, they have no choice but to be beholden to foreign energy currently.

As I said previously, I think NATO and the West will hold if things get really serious.....but I would not count on them for much as it relates to Ukraine or any other lesser strategic countries. I honestly would not hold my breath for NATO to fully defend member countries outside the original footprint.

NATO could stop Putin's aggression tomorrow if they put 50-100K troops along the border of Lativa, Estonia, and a couple other countries.....but that is not going to happen to protect Ukraine.....and sending 3K and 5K American troops to Poland is not going to hinder Putin.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2022 10:54 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
leor_77 wrote:
The situation is just ridiculous....The way to handle it should be to have every NATO country immediately impose strict sanctions on Russia (crippling their economy), and not ease up until all troops are withdrawn. Countries are being weak because oil / natural gas prices are already high, and because they will go much higher without Russia.


Some of this is related to the smoke and mirror's game Germany has played with energy to pacify the domestic environmentalist. They have shut down much of their domestic energy production with the claim of using foreign energy as a bridge to more environmentally friendly domestic energy.....but their long term plan is dubious at best. Either way, they have no choice but to be beholden to foreign energy currently.

As I said previously, I think NATO and the West will hold if things get really serious.....but I would not count on them for much as it relates to Ukraine or any other lesser strategic countries. I honestly would not hold my breath for NATO to fully defend member countries outside the original footprint.

NATO could stop Putin's aggression tomorrow if they put 50-100K troops along the border of Lativa, Estonia, and a couple other countries.....but that is not going to happen to protect Ukraine.....and sending 3K and 5K American troops to Poland is not going to hinder Putin.


Europeans have no desire to confront Russia in comparison to the Americans, because they know any conflict will be at their doorstep. Americans can watch the impending disaster from thousands of miles away on TV, while any war or aggression will be Europe's problem to fix. So they would rather have an uneasy peace with Russia or placate them economically knowing the alternative is far worse for Europe as a whole.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2022 12:34 pm    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
leor_77 wrote:
The situation is just ridiculous....The way to handle it should be to have every NATO country immediately impose strict sanctions on Russia (crippling their economy), and not ease up until all troops are withdrawn. Countries are being weak because oil / natural gas prices are already high, and because they will go much higher without Russia.

Exactly this. Impose at least some sanctions for the threatening posture.

I think it is a bit more complicated than that. The US imports quite a bit of oil from Russia as well. History makes things even more complicated.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2022 8:18 pm    Post subject:

lakersken80 wrote:
adkindo wrote:
leor_77 wrote:
The situation is just ridiculous....The way to handle it should be to have every NATO country immediately impose strict sanctions on Russia (crippling their economy), and not ease up until all troops are withdrawn. Countries are being weak because oil / natural gas prices are already high, and because they will go much higher without Russia.


Some of this is related to the smoke and mirror's game Germany has played with energy to pacify the domestic environmentalist. They have shut down much of their domestic energy production with the claim of using foreign energy as a bridge to more environmentally friendly domestic energy.....but their long term plan is dubious at best. Either way, they have no choice but to be beholden to foreign energy currently.

As I said previously, I think NATO and the West will hold if things get really serious.....but I would not count on them for much as it relates to Ukraine or any other lesser strategic countries. I honestly would not hold my breath for NATO to fully defend member countries outside the original footprint.

NATO could stop Putin's aggression tomorrow if they put 50-100K troops along the border of Lativa, Estonia, and a couple other countries.....but that is not going to happen to protect Ukraine.....and sending 3K and 5K American troops to Poland is not going to hinder Putin.


Europeans have no desire to confront Russia in comparison to the Americans, because they know any conflict will be at their doorstep. Americans can watch the impending disaster from thousands of miles away on TV, while any war or aggression will be Europe's problem to fix. So they would rather have an uneasy peace with Russia or placate them economically knowing the alternative is far worse for Europe as a whole.


No doubt, but Europe should also recognize from experience how it usually goes when you placate a power hungry ruthless leader of a country.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2022 8:37 pm    Post subject:

The real issue here is nukes. Russia and nato can’t get into a direct war because of them.
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2022 10:24 pm    Post subject:

Ukraine: Russia plans biggest war in Europe since 1945 - Boris Johnson
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60448162
Quote:

"The fact is that all the signs are that the plan has already in some senses begun."

The prime minister said US President Joe Biden had told Western leaders intelligence suggested Russian forces were not just planning on entering Ukraine from the east, via Donbas, but down from Belarus and the area surrounding Kyiv.

"I'm afraid to say that the plan we are seeing is for something that could be really the biggest war in Europe since 1945 just in terms of sheer scale," the prime minister said.

People needed to not only consider the potential loss of life of Ukrainians, but also of "young Russians", he added.


👀 I’m noticing a sudden uptick in #Ukraine website outages according to SolarWinds pingdom live map
https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1495260751778312192

This video uploaded an hour ago. User reports 200+ military vehicles drove through Bershakovo, Russia. (Approx. 10 km/6.2 miles from border of Ukraine.)
https://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1495168140061384708
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2022 11:38 pm    Post subject:

The Sudetenland was similar to Crimea in that there was some significant percentage of denizens who supported annexation, probably moreso in Hitler's case. Sudetenland was less contested than Crimea in direct battle or by world opposition in general. There's footage of onlookers cheerily greeting the Panzers rolling into cities. How much resistance Russia will get from the people of Ukraine is the biggest question. Willing to die resistance. Is Putin prepared to sanction atrocities/war crimes like group executions? If he's willing to take heavy sanctions for invading, what would be his thin red line, if anything? How many attack vehicles and helicopters could Uke soldiers and/or guerillas take out w/ stinger/javelin type missiles provided by the US? That was one of the game-changers in Russia's Afghan debacle. Is Putin prepared for that or is he just planning on mostly a soldier-lead assault? Ukraine is toast unless they can start to make it quagmirey. If it's simply a numbers game between invading soldiers and actual Ukranian resistance going beyond their military, Russia's got this. Ukraine is gonna get bleeped by the hacking of their utilities/infrastructure/banks, etc. That doesn't take too long to kill morale.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 20, 2022 6:53 am    Post subject:

cathy78 wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
leor_77 wrote:
The situation is just ridiculous....The way to handle it should be to have every NATO country immediately impose strict sanctions on Russia (crippling their economy), and not ease up until all troops are withdrawn. Countries are being weak because oil / natural gas prices are already high, and because they will go much higher without Russia.

Exactly this. Impose at least some sanctions for the threatening posture.

I think it is a bit more complicated than that. The US imports quite a bit of oil from Russia as well. History makes things even more complicated.


To be meaningful, it also has to be NATO and allies as opposed to just the US. Italy is already on the record no supporting sanctions on energy. Also, in regards to the often mentioned SWIFT financial system.....I do not see the US actually going that route because we currently control the SWIFT system for the most part. The last thing the US wants is to incentivize Russian friendly China to pull their Trillions out of the system and create a alternative system.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 20, 2022 6:57 am    Post subject:

Omar Little wrote:
The real issue here is nukes. Russia and nato can’t get into a direct war because of them.


We all have to go at some point (kidding). While I agree with your assertion, I do not believe Putin is crazy enough to take that path.
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 20, 2022 7:08 am    Post subject:

At some point very soon, free nations around the globe are going to have to take a stand and begin to decouple from global bad actors. This has been a major change in my beliefs over the last decade as I have always been a pure believer in Milton Friedman free market principles.....but that like many principles only works well in a vacuum. I am not suggesting we demand other countries adopt our beliefs or even morals.....but we need to separate from truly bad actors.

We can't continue to rely on countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc. for energy.....nor can we rely on China for critical production like technology and pharmacology. As long as we continue to "depend" on these countries, we will continue to allow them to have control over our actions while indirectly supporting their bad acts.
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Baron Von Humongous
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:09 am    Post subject:

Putin is doing the full Iraq WMD routine right now on state tv.

I think they legitimately believe they'll be treated as liberators.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:11 am    Post subject:

Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Putin is doing the full Iraq WMD routine right now on state tv.

I think they legitimately believe they'll be treated as liberators.


Starting to feel like there may be a 4th a 3 taking place, and the QB is just trying to get the defense to jump off sides. I am not saying Russia will not invade.....only there is a slight chance it does not happen if he can find an off ramp.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:10 am    Post subject:

The Olympics were literally the only thing stopping Putin from marching his troops into Ukraine. Now its over, theres nothing stopping him from going thru with his plans.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:04 am    Post subject:

adkindo wrote:
Baron Von Humongous wrote:
Putin is doing the full Iraq WMD routine right now on state tv.

I think they legitimately believe they'll be treated as liberators.


Starting to feel like there may be a 4th a 3 taking place, and the QB is just trying to get the defense to jump off sides. I am not saying Russia will not invade.....only there is a slight chance it does not happen if he can find an off ramp.

Catching some of his speech rn and I'm skeptical. Putin sounds completely bloodthirsty:
Quote:
"Contemporary Ukraine should be called The Vladimir I. Lenin Republic of Ukraine. And then they tore down his statues and called it de-communization. You want decommunization? We're prepared to show you what that really means for Ukraine."

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:35 am    Post subject:

"They don't even need a formal reason. their reason is that we exist. i want to say it directly: in a situation when our offerings of dialogue are being refused, russia is allowed to take measures to guarantee its security. we will do this."

Looks like war / invasion is happening unfortunately...
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:00 pm    Post subject:

leor_77 wrote:
"They don't even need a formal reason. their reason is that we exist. i want to say it directly: in a situation when our offerings of dialogue are being refused, russia is allowed to take measures to guarantee its security. we will do this."

Looks like war / invasion is happening unfortunately...

He confirmed they have kill lists. IC was right about that one. I expect they're right about an impending invasion to take Kiev and install a puppet regime.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:39 pm    Post subject:

I would be surprised if the Ukrainian government hasn't made plans to bail before the invasion. After all they would be the number 1 target on the list.
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