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hydrohead
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Location: Space City
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 Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:56 am Post subject: |
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Nice list. Would target everyone below our category as potential trade partners now or eventually later.
Which is:
GRASPING AT PLAY-IN HOME-COURT DISADVANTAGE
Chicago Bulls
New York Knicks
Portland Trail Blazers
Sacramento Kings
HOVERING IN PURGATORY -- YAY!
Detroit Pistons
Orlando Magic
HOVERING IN PURGATORY -- GULP
Charlotte Hornets
Washington Wizards
HAPPY TO LOSE
Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs
Utah Jazz
Indiana Pacers
Houston Rockets
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:02 am Post subject: |
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| wolfpaclaker wrote: | | Quote: |
I think Grant stays with the Blazers. Wiggins does too. You're looking at overpaying for a Harrison Barnes. 2023 FA class is just not great at all with our limited budget. |
Right, so I don't see overpayment there, and certainly not for a non-big name. So why would we pay up for Reaves/Nunn, when we've let dudes like KCP, Caruso etc go? Those two won you a ring, and not sure Reaves/Nunn will even reach the level Caruso/KCP had.
So the point is, sure there's going to lux tax savings, specifically avoiding the repeater tax. But when they actually have to spend it, I highly doubt re-signing our role players is on the priority. Think we'll make a play for Kyrie, Dray, Wiggins, Grant etc.
Jeanie is the one who tossed Mitch after the Deng/Moz signings. She can't keep Pelinka around if all he has to show for all this way and patience is re-signing Nunn, Reaves and overpaying Barnes. I know your point and reasoning, I just can't see that is what we do. We'll make a big play, IMO. Whether it works or not, IDK. But lets just even say, a package of a huge trade X, + 2 draft picks, is a lot more of a trade value than WB+2 picks is. |
The point is, most of those players are out of our price range, or will likely re-sign with their teams. Then what? This is why the 2023 plan has the makings of a repeat of 2016, except you have LBJ/AD on the squad.
I'm not sure about 30m + 2 picks being all that desirable for a bona fide star. Look at how many picks had to go out for Gobert for crying out loud, then Mitchell. Oh, and both teams also sent out productive players too with the boatload of picks.
I'm very concerned if we approach 2023 FA by punting this year. Do you really want a then-33 year old Draymond who is missing more and more games each year? I don't (and I think highly of Draymond's game on the court). I also think the Nets won't let Kyrie walk and will likely re-sign him.
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mad55557777
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Joined: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 23673
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:06 am Post subject: |
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| hydrohead wrote: | Nice list. Would target everyone below our category as potential trade partners now or eventually later.
Which is:
GRASPING AT PLAY-IN HOME-COURT DISADVANTAGE
Chicago Bulls
New York Knicks
Portland Trail Blazers
Sacramento Kings
HOVERING IN PURGATORY -- YAY!
Detroit Pistons
Orlando Magic
HOVERING IN PURGATORY -- GULP
Charlotte Hornets
Washington Wizards
HAPPY TO LOSE
Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs
Utah Jazz
Indiana Pacers
Houston Rockets |
i think ALL these teams will be tanking somewhat. we might see some funny records this season. As far as the Lakers go, they should be smart when load manage Lebron and AD.
For instance, you rest Lebron or AD against the warriors instead of the Pacers, (bleep) the National TV. if we want a good record, feast on these teams. |
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vasashi17+
Star Player
Joined: 13 Dec 2019
Posts: 5679
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:07 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Our 2023 cap space plan should include re-signing Nunn and Reaves. Keep Nunn means you eat 7m or so into cap space with his cap hold, so you have about 22-23m to operate with. |
The cap hold isn't really the issue. If you want to re-sign him, it would cost more than $7M if he has a good season. It's impossible to forecast this early, but we could be competing with MLE level offers. On the other hand, if he doesn't have a good season or gets hurt, we may not want to keep him anyway. |
Cap hold is a direct issue. If that Lakers want $30-35m, they will have to renounce just about everyone except AD/LBJ/Christie/Reaves.
With early bird rights, Lakers can compete with MLE offers. What this team lacks are middle-class contracts and having his would be great to have on the team. I can see him as a starting player thanks to his ability to shoot the 3. |
You don't get Early Bird rights when you have cap space. The cap hold is not important. You can re-sign him, or you can renounce him. You can't use the cap space and then sign him with Early Bird rights. |
Actually @AH, the early bird caphold is on the books while you use cap space. Once the cap dries up, you can then sign the early bird player up to whatever their max is. That’s why it’s called a caphold, since you reserved that cap space and put it on hold to address that player later (ie order of operations).
TL;dr: if you have bird rights on a player and let’s say their caphold is 10m and you still have 20m in cap space, then you can only offer other FAs 20m in starting pay. However if you renounce that player and their caphold, now you have 30m in cap space to offer other FAs in starting pay. The player that you renounced no longer has bird rights and so we can turn to him and now only offer the room MLE or a vet min player exception since we hold no bird rights on that player any longer.
The thing is that early bird deals must be at a minimum 2yrs in length, so you’ll see teams renounce that player and re-up them on 1yr non-bird rights (giving them built in no-trade clauses essentially for that season). Since an early bird has been on the team for 2 years without passing waivers, with this 1yr deal using nonbird, they will have earned a 3rd year with the team making them full bird players after the year and then they can really big bag up using those full bird rights the following summer.
For example, let’s use Reaves since he holds a lot of special conditions that could impact they way he occupies our potential 2023 cap space with his caphold. We got Reaves on early bird rights for 2023 and he’ll be a RFA as well. So his caphold (based on if he does not meet “starter criteria”) will be as low as 2.1m. So he’s accounted for while we use our cap space and once we use all of it up, we can address Reaves with early bird rights on a minimum 2yr deal (a max of 4 years and up to 8% annual escalators). His max as an early bird is 105% of the average NBA salary for the previous season (ie ~11m)…see how we treated early bird THT last summer for reference w/ a starting of 9.5m (fyi dude coukd have gotten up to 10.5m in starting salary with early bird rights).
Also something to consider is that Reaves is a RFA, so if he signs a qualifying offer with another team, we will be on a 48hr clock to match it once the FA moratorium ends on July 6th. If and when we do match it, that would cut into our cap space if we have not used it up already. Also since he is a Gilbert Arenas provisioned player, we could use the MLE to match him, but if a cap having team offers him something ridiculous, then his deal would be considered a poison pill deal based on if we had cap space or not at the time of matching the offer. But that’s a whole other discussion.
Let’s say we renounce Reaves and his RFA early bird right caphold comes off the books a la Jules circa 2018, then we would have that much more in cap space to offer to a free agent since he is no longer accounted for and his caphold is off the books. It wouldn’t be that much more in cap space gained back since his caphold is so small (unless he earns “starter criteria, which would then push his caphold to ~7m; btw starter criteria is met if dude starts in at least 41 games or plays a min of 2000 minutes during the regular season).
Hope that clarifies some stuff for folks.
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:20 am Post subject: |
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Not that it matters TOO much, but I don't know if we will win a preseason game this year. You have to imagine that we will sit our main rotation players shortly so we can get a good final look at our 2nd unit/training camp fodder. Will this be 0-12 in 2 preseasons?
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:26 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Our 2023 cap space plan should include re-signing Nunn and Reaves. Keep Nunn means you eat 7m or so into cap space with his cap hold, so you have about 22-23m to operate with. |
The cap hold isn't really the issue. If you want to re-sign him, it would cost more than $7M if he has a good season. It's impossible to forecast this early, but we could be competing with MLE level offers. On the other hand, if he doesn't have a good season or gets hurt, we may not want to keep him anyway. |
I think small score-first/average-from-3 guards are going the way of Centers-not-named-Embiid/Jokic/Gobert. Unless its Dame or Ja level, there’s plenty of these guys to go around and they might not even leave your bench in a playoff game. What Nunn-types made the MLE or better the last two years? Off the top of my head, only the Kings (Monk) and Lakers did this (two years in a row with Lonnie Walker). The smarter teams seem to realize these guys are a dime a dozen. |
Gary Payton, Jr. jumps to mind. You mentioned Monk. But really, this gets into an argument about which player is or is not comparable to Nunn. There is no clone that we can compare him to, so that sort of argument is a futility. Fundamentally, I agree that supply and demand has depressed the value of smaller guards over the past few years. Just the same, if Nunn has a good season, he'll get paid. |
I meant to include average or worse from D in that archetype, and GP2 is one of the best defenders in the league—a guy who can guard tall wings fairly well. The type of guy I’m talking about is a guard who has to be going off on offense in order to not be a net negative, since creating for others will also be lacking. Nunn, Monk, and Walker all come to mind. Monk was a good value, but i don’t see either Nunn nor Walker as worth spending more than mini-mle money on. There’s a guy like that available every season, just hopefully not a klutch client |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:29 am Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Our 2023 cap space plan should include re-signing Nunn and Reaves. Keep Nunn means you eat 7m or so into cap space with his cap hold, so you have about 22-23m to operate with. |
The cap hold isn't really the issue. If you want to re-sign him, it would cost more than $7M if he has a good season. It's impossible to forecast this early, but we could be competing with MLE level offers. On the other hand, if he doesn't have a good season or gets hurt, we may not want to keep him anyway. |
I think small score-first/average-from-3 guards are going the way of Centers-not-named-Embiid/Jokic/Gobert. Unless its Dame or Ja level, there’s plenty of these guys to go around and they might not even leave your bench in a playoff game. What Nunn-types made the MLE or better the last two years? Off the top of my head, only the Kings (Monk) and Lakers did this (two years in a row with Lonnie Walker). The smarter teams seem to realize these guys are a dime a dozen. |
Gary Payton, Jr. jumps to mind. You mentioned Monk. But really, this gets into an argument about which player is or is not comparable to Nunn. There is no clone that we can compare him to, so that sort of argument is a futility. Fundamentally, I agree that supply and demand has depressed the value of smaller guards over the past few years. Just the same, if Nunn has a good season, he'll get paid. |
I meant to include average or worse from D in that archetype, and GP2 is one of the best defenders in the league—a guy who can guard tall wings fairly well. The type of guy I’m talking about is a guard who has to be going off on offense in order to not be a net negative, since creating for others will also be lacking. Nunn, Monk, and Walker all come to mind. Monk was a good value, but i don’t see either Nunn nor Walker as worth spending more than mini-mle money on. There’s a guy like that available every season, just hopefully not a klutch client |
I can agree to a certain point, but I think you are dismissing Nunn's value a bit. I think he's probably closer to a MLE level player due to his shooting and scoring ability.
My point is that the Lakers consistently do not have middle class assets. We either have all max deals or min deals. They make trades incredibly difficult and the team structure is just not good with so many minimum deals. I do not think paying Nunn around the MLE is an overpay as we will have continuity and I do not think he is a dime a dozen level player. That is the Troy Browns, JTAs of the world more so than him.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:30 am Post subject: |
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| vasashi17+ wrote: | | Actually @AH, the early bird caphold is on the books while you use cap space. Once the cap dries up, you can then sign the early bird player up to whatever their max is. That’s why it’s called a caphold, since you reserved that cap space and put it on hold to address that player later (ie order of operations). |
Okay, then, so the cap hold does matter.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:40 am Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | I meant to include average or worse from D in that archetype, and GP2 is one of the best defenders in the league—a guy who can guard tall wings fairly well. The type of guy I’m talking about is a guard who has to be going off on offense in order to not be a net negative, since creating for others will also be lacking. Nunn, Monk, and Walker all come to mind. Monk was a good value, but i don’t see either Nunn nor Walker as worth spending more than mini-mle money on. There’s a guy like that available every season, just hopefully not a klutch client |
As I said, this argument becomes a futility. Gary Payton, Jr. averaged 17 mpg last season. He's 6' 3". He's a .320 career shooter from three. Sure, he's not a clone of Nunn, but what are we really talking about here? You're putting Nunn in the same basket as Walker, but Walker is one of the worst defenders in the league and became a bricklayer from three as his number of shots went up. I can't give you an example of a Nunn clone, because there isn't one.
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activeverb
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:49 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | I meant to include average or worse from D in that archetype, and GP2 is one of the best defenders in the league—a guy who can guard tall wings fairly well. The type of guy I’m talking about is a guard who has to be going off on offense in order to not be a net negative, since creating for others will also be lacking. Nunn, Monk, and Walker all come to mind. Monk was a good value, but i don’t see either Nunn nor Walker as worth spending more than mini-mle money on. There’s a guy like that available every season, just hopefully not a klutch client |
As I said, this argument becomes a futility. Gary Payton, Jr. averaged 17 mpg last season. He's 6' 3". He's a .320 career shooter from three. Sure, he's not a clone of Nunn, but what are we really talking about here? You're putting Nunn in the same basket as Walker, but Walker is one of the worst defenders in the league and became a bricklayer from three as his number of shots went up. I can't give you an example of a Nunn clone, because there isn't one. |
If you look at the small guards, who got mMLE or MLE deals, you have: Monk, Nunn, Walker, Payton, DiVincenzo, Ricky Rubio, Otto Porter.
I'd say they are roughly in the same tier. They all have pros and cons. Some don't shoot well (Payton). Some don't defend (Monk). Some are gambles that they will improve (Walker -- also he was willing to take a one-year deal). They might struggle to win a starting spot on a contending team. |
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vasashi17+
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Joined: 13 Dec 2019
Posts: 5679
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | vasashi17+ wrote: | | Actually @AH, the early bird caphold is on the books while you use cap space. Once the cap dries up, you can then sign the early bird player up to whatever their max is. That’s why it’s called a caphold, since you reserved that cap space and put it on hold to address that player later (ie order of operations). |
Okay, then, so the cap hold does matter. |
Haha…and so does our cap space. There’s no way “around” it, our FO has made that very obvious. But apparently they are now “flatly” denying just who they are holding that cap space for…
| Quote: | | Buha: The intel that we got from multiple people within the (Lakers) organization was that as of now it’s not like they’re saving their cap space for Kyrie Irving or that you know, there’s this grand plan to land Kyrie. |
You know who also matters? Stepien. I wonder where we’d be without that guy. Probably myles away from any trade talks…speaking of which…
| Quote: | Buha: Is there one guy that from your understanding is higher on (the Lakers’) wish list? From my understanding, it is Myles Turner and I think there definitely are reservations from their side on both guys (Turner and Buddy Hield).
I know they would have some interest in extending (Myles Turner), but the intel they’ve gotten back is that he wants to most likely test unrestricted for agency.
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https://open.spotify.com/episode/4pdjyQOBMyWoALmucplSGo?si=rL4kLxf-R1CEKa64_-o22A
FYI: it’s rumored Turner wants a starting of 25m in an extension/new team deal.
As for the other matters to consume, Lowe discusses the Crowder chowder, uh chatter…
| Quote: | Miami has earned the benefit of the doubt. It will have a stout, switchable defense even with Tucker gone. (The Heat have interest in Jae Crowder too, sources say, but finding matching salary is tough until Dewayne Dedmon, Caleb Martin and Victor Oladipo become trade-eligible in the winter. Martin might start, and the Heat are optimistic Oladipo can play a huge role.)
The Bucks have internal interest in Crowder as that Tucker replacement after getting into the recent Jerami Grant and Bojan Bogdanovic discussions, sources say. They will search all season for one more piece. – via Zach Lowe @ ESPN
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https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/34732456/lowe-annual-nba-tiers-ranking-league-best-worst-teams-nets-lakers
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:54 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | I meant to include average or worse from D in that archetype, and GP2 is one of the best defenders in the league—a guy who can guard tall wings fairly well. The type of guy I’m talking about is a guard who has to be going off on offense in order to not be a net negative, since creating for others will also be lacking. Nunn, Monk, and Walker all come to mind. Monk was a good value, but i don’t see either Nunn nor Walker as worth spending more than mini-mle money on. There’s a guy like that available every season, just hopefully not a klutch client |
As I said, this argument becomes a futility. Gary Payton, Jr. averaged 17 mpg last season. He's 6' 3". He's a .320 career shooter from three. Sure, he's not a clone of Nunn, but what are we really talking about here? You're putting Nunn in the same basket as Walker, but Walker is one of the worst defenders in the league and became a bricklayer from three as his number of shots went up. I can't give you an example of a Nunn clone, because there isn't one. |
If you can only classify people by exact stats, then yes, no two players in the NBA are alike and everyone is a unicorn.
I see players by role
Guys like
Nunn
Walker
Monk
Clarkson
Anfernee Simons
Jeremy Lamb
McLemore
Shamet
Undersized no-defense score-first guards without the elite gravity of someone like Seth Curry or Hield. If they’re not scorching the nets, they’re basically negatives. Shamet and Monk might have ball gravity if they’re not hitting, but you headhunt them to death on offense. Simons could still maybe improve his efficiency to a point where bad games are infrequent (and hopefully develops more as a playmaker.) But for me, there’s not much difference between these guys. I’d rather take a vet min flyer on Lamb than spend our MLE on Walker or invest significant money in keeping Nunn. His production is easily replaceable. |
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:59 am Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | I meant to include average or worse from D in that archetype, and GP2 is one of the best defenders in the league—a guy who can guard tall wings fairly well. The type of guy I’m talking about is a guard who has to be going off on offense in order to not be a net negative, since creating for others will also be lacking. Nunn, Monk, and Walker all come to mind. Monk was a good value, but i don’t see either Nunn nor Walker as worth spending more than mini-mle money on. There’s a guy like that available every season, just hopefully not a klutch client |
As I said, this argument becomes a futility. Gary Payton, Jr. averaged 17 mpg last season. He's 6' 3". He's a .320 career shooter from three. Sure, he's not a clone of Nunn, but what are we really talking about here? You're putting Nunn in the same basket as Walker, but Walker is one of the worst defenders in the league and became a bricklayer from three as his number of shots went up. I can't give you an example of a Nunn clone, because there isn't one. |
If you look at the small guards, who got mMLE or MLE deals, you have: Monk, Nunn, Walker, Payton, DiVincenzo, Ricky Rubio, Otto Porter.
I'd say they are roughly in the same tier. They all have pros and cons. Some don't shoot well (Payton). Some don't defend (Monk). Some are gambles that they will improve (Walker -- also he was willing to take a one-year deal). They might struggle to win a starting spot on a contending team. |
Rubio is a playmaker first and though he has fallen off, he’s still a very smart defender. Otto Porter Jr is a tall wing, and someone who has definitely been underpaid the last two years. Payton would roughly fit in this category if his D wasn’t as elite as it was. Divencenzo is certainly in this category. |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:05 am Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | I meant to include average or worse from D in that archetype, and GP2 is one of the best defenders in the league—a guy who can guard tall wings fairly well. The type of guy I’m talking about is a guard who has to be going off on offense in order to not be a net negative, since creating for others will also be lacking. Nunn, Monk, and Walker all come to mind. Monk was a good value, but i don’t see either Nunn nor Walker as worth spending more than mini-mle money on. There’s a guy like that available every season, just hopefully not a klutch client |
As I said, this argument becomes a futility. Gary Payton, Jr. averaged 17 mpg last season. He's 6' 3". He's a .320 career shooter from three. Sure, he's not a clone of Nunn, but what are we really talking about here? You're putting Nunn in the same basket as Walker, but Walker is one of the worst defenders in the league and became a bricklayer from three as his number of shots went up. I can't give you an example of a Nunn clone, because there isn't one. |
If you can only classify people by exact stats, then yes, no two players in the NBA are alike and everyone is a unicorn.
I see players by role
Guys like
Nunn
Walker
Monk
Clarkson
Anfernee Simons
Jeremy Lamb
McLemore
Shamet
Undersized no-defense score-first guards without the elite gravity of someone like Seth Curry or Hield. If they’re not scorching the nets, they’re basically negatives. Shamet and Monk might have ball gravity if they’re not hitting, but you headhunt them to death on offense. Simons could still maybe improve his efficiency to a point where bad games are infrequent (and hopefully develops more as a playmaker.) But for me, there’s not much difference between these guys. I’d rather take a vet min flyer on Lamb than spend our MLE on Walker or invest significant money in keeping Nunn. His production is easily replaceable. |
I don't think you have a good handle on how much the guys you cite actually make.
Simmons is a 17 ppg. guy who shoots 41% from threes and just signed a 4 year, $100 million deal.
Virtually everyone on your list makes mMLE or better. A few makes $10 million plus.
The only people on your list who make the minimum are the two 30-year-old journeymen, Lamb and McLemore, who struggle to get playing time. They aren't in the same class as the other guys. The kinds of shooting guards who are available for the minimum don't tend to be guys you can count on making the rotation unless there is some unusual circumstances (like Porter signing with Golden State to rebuild his career after injuries). |
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Lakeshow23_
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Joined: 02 May 2021
Posts: 670
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:11 am Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | I meant to include average or worse from D in that archetype, and GP2 is one of the best defenders in the league—a guy who can guard tall wings fairly well. The type of guy I’m talking about is a guard who has to be going off on offense in order to not be a net negative, since creating for others will also be lacking. Nunn, Monk, and Walker all come to mind. Monk was a good value, but i don’t see either Nunn nor Walker as worth spending more than mini-mle money on. There’s a guy like that available every season, just hopefully not a klutch client |
As I said, this argument becomes a futility. Gary Payton, Jr. averaged 17 mpg last season. He's 6' 3". He's a .320 career shooter from three. Sure, he's not a clone of Nunn, but what are we really talking about here? You're putting Nunn in the same basket as Walker, but Walker is one of the worst defenders in the league and became a bricklayer from three as his number of shots went up. I can't give you an example of a Nunn clone, because there isn't one. |
If you can only classify people by exact stats, then yes, no two players in the NBA are alike and everyone is a unicorn.
I see players by role
Guys like
Nunn
Walker
Monk
Clarkson
Anfernee Simons
Jeremy Lamb
McLemore
Shamet
Undersized no-defense score-first guards without the elite gravity of someone like Seth Curry or Hield. If they’re not scorching the nets, they’re basically negatives. Shamet and Monk might have ball gravity if they’re not hitting, but you headhunt them to death on offense. Simons could still maybe improve his efficiency to a point where bad games are infrequent (and hopefully develops more as a playmaker.) But for me, there’s not much difference between these guys. I’d rather take a vet min flyer on Lamb than spend our MLE on Walker or invest significant money in keeping Nunn. His production is easily replaceable. |
Simons and Herro just got paid and Poole is looking for a hefty contract after averaging 20 MPG in the finals because of his defensive foibles. This archetype isn't ideal but I do think it could be worth investing in Nunn if he can provide a consistent scoring punch this season. Shot-creation is one of the most valuable skills in basketball and the difference between a player like Nunn and lesser players that occupy that space like Shamet or Lamb is palpable. |
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Lakeshow23_
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:20 am Post subject: |
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| Who do you guys think are the DNP-CD candidates this season? I can see Bryant and Brown jr. out of the rotation by midseason, JTA and Gabriel are making a case for minutes but they remain candidates until they could solidify their roles, and I could see Lonnie or Schroeder becoming situational players. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:31 am Post subject: |
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| Lakeshow23_ wrote: | | Who do you guys think are the DNP-CD candidates this season? I can see Bryant and Brown jr. out of the rotation by midseason, JTA and Gabriel are making a case for minutes but they remain candidates until they could solidify their roles, and I could see Lonnie or Schroeder becoming situational players. |
I want to see how Bryant develops as he gets more time on the court and in practice. He has played only about 700 minutes over the last two seasons due to injuries. I'm not overly concerned by the fact that he hasn't looked good so far. We'll see how he progresses. He might be washed up, but we shall see.
If Brown can shake off the back issue, he fills an echoing void on the roster.
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:31 am Post subject: |
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Simons got a paid a year early imo, but we’ll see. He’s young enough to have untapped potential. Herro might have been overpaid but he was the leading scorer off the bench and has proven fearless in the moment. If the Heat (who have as good a development program as any) thought Nunn could be anything like that, they would have kept him.
It’s not easy being an efficient volume scorer. Herro and Simons have shown flashes. Simons could still go the way of Malik Monk, a guy who can go off, but not often enough to make you dangerous. Nunn to me is closer to Monk than Herro.
And Jordan Poole’s scoring is another level. Check his TS% in the playoffs. Insane shot-making and gravity. Not a great defender, but he can score 40 or score 10, and still stretch a defender 27 feet from the basket.
Last edited by pjiddy on Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:35 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Laker's Fan
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:35 am Post subject: |
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A Turner acquisition has shades of Dennis, where the leverage of the cost (picks) and limited ability to replace him makes for a poor contract negotiation. Given we know the team is not going to pay the repeater tax (I feel we can assert that with confidence), that sets up losing him for nothing.
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:47 am Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | I meant to include average or worse from D in that archetype, and GP2 is one of the best defenders in the league—a guy who can guard tall wings fairly well. The type of guy I’m talking about is a guard who has to be going off on offense in order to not be a net negative, since creating for others will also be lacking. Nunn, Monk, and Walker all come to mind. Monk was a good value, but i don’t see either Nunn nor Walker as worth spending more than mini-mle money on. There’s a guy like that available every season, just hopefully not a klutch client |
As I said, this argument becomes a futility. Gary Payton, Jr. averaged 17 mpg last season. He's 6' 3". He's a .320 career shooter from three. Sure, he's not a clone of Nunn, but what are we really talking about here? You're putting Nunn in the same basket as Walker, but Walker is one of the worst defenders in the league and became a bricklayer from three as his number of shots went up. I can't give you an example of a Nunn clone, because there isn't one. |
If you can only classify people by exact stats, then yes, no two players in the NBA are alike and everyone is a unicorn.
I see players by role
Guys like
Nunn
Walker
Monk
Clarkson
Anfernee Simons
Jeremy Lamb
McLemore
Shamet
Undersized no-defense score-first guards without the elite gravity of someone like Seth Curry or Hield. If they’re not scorching the nets, they’re basically negatives. Shamet and Monk might have ball gravity if they’re not hitting, but you headhunt them to death on offense. Simons could still maybe improve his efficiency to a point where bad games are infrequent (and hopefully develops more as a playmaker.) But for me, there’s not much difference between these guys. I’d rather take a vet min flyer on Lamb than spend our MLE on Walker or invest significant money in keeping Nunn. His production is easily replaceable. |
I don't think you have a good handle on how much the guys you cite actually make.
Simmons is a 17 ppg. guy who shoots 41% from threes and just signed a 4 year, $100 million deal.
Virtually everyone on your list makes mMLE or better. A few makes $10 million plus.
The only people on your list who make the minimum are the two 30-year-old journeymen, Lamb and McLemore, who struggle to get playing time. They aren't in the same class as the other guys. The kinds of shooting guards who are available for the minimum don't tend to be guys you can count on making the rotation unless there is some unusual circumstances (like Porter signing with Golden State to rebuild his career after injuries). |
Simons yes got paid, as i said, a year early--but he's young and we'll see. And saying "most guys are making at least mini-MLE" is an odd argument to make that i don't have a good handle on the market... you're literally quoting me saying i don't think guys like that should make more than mini-MLE.. I didn't say "the following players are all being paid the league minimum."
Clarkson's contract was from how many seasons ago by a previous GM before the league started to wake up to overpaying this type of player? Ainge can't even get a 1st for him. Monk got overpaid by the most inept organization in the NBA. Shamet's minutes in the playoffs declined with each passing series. He barely played 12 mpg against Dallas. You think the Suns are happy paying an 8th/9th man 10 million a year? They'd probably take a 2nd rounder and an expiring for him.
As i also stated above: smart organizations are avoiding overpaying this type of player. It's why the Heat let Nunn walk for nothing. Ditto Spurs and Walker. The Kings overpaid for Monk. We overpaid for Walker. Smart vs not so smart organizations. |
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levon
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:56 am Post subject: |
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| Laker's Fan wrote: | | A Turner acquisition has shades of Dennis, where the leverage of the cost (picks) and limited ability to replace him makes for a poor contract negotiation. Given we know the team is not going to pay the repeater tax (I feel we can assert that with confidence), that sets up losing him for nothing. |
Continues to be underdiscussed. The trade for Turner is locking in to signing Turner with your cap space next season. It's effectively Russ + 2 firsts + cap space for a player whom you aptly placed in the 2021 Dennis Schroder tier. There's a very real risk we trade for Turner, he gets injured, we never see what we have, and then we're forced to re-sign him with no data on top of the risk of having used our picks for nothing. |
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activeverb
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:58 am Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | i don't think guys like that should make more than mini-MLE.. |
A lot of fans think most NBA players are overpaid. But the reality is the list of guys you provided are all being paid market value. That is what guys of their ability, production or potential get paid today.
You aren't going to find players in the vet-minimum bargain bin who can match them. For the vet's minimum, you get guys like Troy Brown, who is a below-average NBA shooter that will struggle to make the rotation. |
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pjiddy
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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| activeverb wrote: | | pjiddy wrote: | | i don't think guys like that should make more than mini-MLE.. |
A lot of fans think most NBA players are overpaid. But the reality is the list of guys you provided are all being paid market value. That is what guys of their ability, production or potential get paid today.
You aren't going to find players in the vet-minimum bargain bin who can match them. For the vet's minimum, you get guys like Troy Brown, who is a below-average NBA shooter that will struggle to make the rotation. |
My post was based on what we've seen recently and what we can expect next year. It's universally agreed Lonnie Walker shouldn't have gotten the MLE. If it weren't for the Kings (perhaps trying to get one up on the Lakers), not sure Monk would have made even MLE money. McLemore and Lamb don't even have teams. My original post was re: do we keep Nunn next year? My answer is if he's cheap. Otherwise, his production is some of the easiest in the NBA to replace. |
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RI Laker
Star Player
Joined: 27 Jun 2005
Posts: 7203
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Lakeshow23_ wrote: | | Who do you guys think are the DNP-CD candidates this season? I can see Bryant and Brown jr. out of the rotation by midseason, JTA and Gabriel are making a case for minutes but they remain candidates until they could solidify their roles, and I could see Lonnie or Schroeder becoming situational players. |
I hope I'm wrong, but I can see our top FA acquisition (Walker) being out of the rotation within the first twenty games (thanks Klutch). |
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Aeneas Hunter
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Joined: 12 Jul 2005
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| Posted: Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:36 pm Post subject: |
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| pjiddy wrote: | | As i also stated above: smart organizations are avoiding overpaying this type of player. It's why the Heat let Nunn walk for nothing. Ditto Spurs and Walker. The Kings overpaid for Monk. We overpaid for Walker. Smart vs not so smart organizations. |
The Heat also gave Lowry a big contract and now have given Herro a gigantic contract. Whether an organization is "smart" or "not smart" is subjective, unless of course we're talking about the Knicks. Furthermore, it doesn't change the market price for a player. It's not like the "smart" organizations get a discount on the better players on the market.
A year ago, Hollinger's model valued Nunn at $11M. This year, his model valued Monk at $16M. I'm never going to tell you that a computer model is definitive, but that's more objective than your opinion or my opinion.
Anyway, as I said, this sort of discussion is a futility. You don't value Nunn. That's cool. But looking for comparators is futile because you can always quibble with whether a player is comparable, and in the end, you can always say that smart organizations don't pay that kind of money.
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