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Hanging from Rafters
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 Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 9:38 pm Post subject: |
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| gng930 wrote: | | Aeneas Hunter wrote: | | vasashi17+ wrote: | | As of right now the tax line is 162m & a 169m 1st Apron on a 134m salary cap. I don't expect that to stick...I believe it will hit the max it can at 165m, 172m and 136m respectively. |
Have you run a no-luxury-tax $165M scenario somewhere? If not, I'm not asking you to do that much work just for grins. I can do the rough numbers. We have about $88M going to Lebron and Davis, so that would leave $77M for the other 12 roster spots. Take out $12M for Reaves, and we're at $65M. Take out $15M for Hachimura (possibly optimistic), and we're down to $50M for 10 roster spots. Take out another $6.5M for Vanderbilt and Christie, and we're down to $43.5M for 8 roster spots. Let's give $20M to Russell, and we're down to $23.5M for 7 roster spots. Let's assume $5.8M for the draft picks (this is the number you use), and we're down to $17.7M for five roster spots.
Those five roster spots have a minimum charge of about $2M, so we're down to about $7.7M in excess money to spend. Let's say that we spend it on Schroder, so he gets $9.7M. If Hachimura or Russell get more, Schroder gets less.
So that's what the no-luxury-tax roster would look like. Of course, we can play around some of these assumptions, but this is a possible pathway. We'd have a starting lineup of Davis, Lebron, Vanderbilt, Reaves, and Russell, with Hachimura, Schroder, Christie, #17, #47, and four vet mins on the bench. We could use #17 and #47 to get a wing and a center, ideally guys who won't need a year or two to develop. A lot of the other considerations (like the hard cap) don't matter, because this is a no-luxury-tax roster. We wouldn't have any flexibility down the line if we wanted to add someone.
I'm certainly not advocating this. But is this more or less what it would look like? |
Not V+ but dcarter posted some numbers which checks out with my calculations too. Something like LBJ, AD, Vando, pick, Max with Reaves, Rui, DLO at your numbers (roughly $45 million combined starting salary) allows you to spend at least $10 million of your MLE. So core 6 + Schro/most of MLE + Max + #1 + merry minimums is plausible in your scenario. |
1. Bron 47.6m
2. AD 40.6m
3. DLo 20m
4. Rui 12m
5. Reaves 12m
6. LWIV 7m (partial ntpMLE)
7. Schro 5m (partial ntpMLE)
8. Vandi 4.7m
9. Mo 4.5 (BAE)
10. FRP 3.7m
11. 2ndRP 2.1m
12. Gabe 2m (vet min)
13. TBjr 2m (vet min)
14. MaxC 1.7m
164.9
AD/Mo
Rui/Gabe
LBJ/Vandi/TBjr
AR/LWIV/MaxC
Dlo/Schro
+ FRP/2ndRP
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gng930
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| Posted: Wed May 31, 2023 10:45 pm Post subject: |
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Small technicality but if you are signing Lonnie for just 7m you don't need to use your MLE. Same with your projection for Mo and the BAE I believe although I'm not clear if not taking his guarantee voids your Bird rights.
Rui at 12mil is very optimistic and arguably unrealistic. You also need more dependable center depth IMO. Bare minimum, another big body that can spell (but not necessarily play alongside) AD.
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Hanging from Rafters
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 12:44 am Post subject: |
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| gng930 wrote: | Small technicality but if you are signing Lonnie for just 7m you don't need to use your MLE. Same with your projection for Mo and the BAE I believe although I'm not clear if not taking his guarantee voids your Bird rights.
Rui at 12mil is very optimistic and arguably unrealistic. You also need more dependable center depth IMO. Bare minimum, another big body that can spell (but not necessarily play alongside) AD. |
If the FO is hesitant to upgrade the roster in order to pursue financial relief imo we would need to retain as much of this year’s roster as possible to maintain the level of competitiveness from this season. I believe the roster above would give them the best chance to do that under those circumstances. It’s a hypothetical scenario below the 165 apron with everyone back except Beasley to see what it would have to look like to do that and avoid the lux tax. It could be unrealistic to think we could be as competitive without an upgrade.
The team may would have to try to fill additional needs like the C you mentioned with the picks, (drafting or swapping for a player). Iirc Mo would be an UFA if his contract isn’t guaranteed so we’d have to use cap space or an exception to bring him back…but I’m far from a cap expert so…I’ll stand corrected if needed.
Thanks for the info on LWIV’s 7m, more realistically he would not be re-signed and the 7mil used for TT(+2m), Dlo(+2=22m), and Rui(+3=15m).
I’d actually prefer a trade to upgrade with priority on keeping a core roster of Schro/AR/Rui/LBJ/AD and perhaps others. I would want to add not only C depth but address other deficiencies as well.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 2:07 am Post subject: |
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| gng930 wrote: | | Not V+ but dcarter posted some numbers which checks out with my calculations too. Something like LBJ, AD, Vando, pick, Max with Reaves, Rui, DLO at your numbers (roughly $45 million combined starting salary) allows you to spend at least $10 million of your MLE. So core 6 + Schro/most of MLE + Max + #1 + merry minimums is plausible in your scenario. |
Sure, the numbers can vary based on the assumptions. I don't think Hachimura will come as low as $12M.
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wolfpaclaker
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 2:23 am Post subject: |
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| I know Monty is well liked and valued in the "good" coach category. But that contract, just wow. I guess they are desperate to get into the playoffs. |
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 4:07 am Post subject: |
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| wolfpaclaker wrote: | | I know Monty is well liked and valued in the "good" coach category. But that contract, just wow. I guess they are desperate to get into the playoffs. |
It strikes me as an odd move, for sure. Williams seems to be a good coach, but his record with Phoenix is not without its blemishes.
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panamaniac
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 4:27 am Post subject: |
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| Good Gawd what an overpay by Detroit. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 5:37 am Post subject: |
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Monty is probably making in one year, what Ham is getting over 3 years. Ham is probably one of the lowest paid coaches in the NBA.
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dont_be_a_wuss
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 5:52 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Monty is probably making in one year, what Ham is getting over 3 years. Ham is probably one of the lowest paid coaches in the NBA. |
What is Darvin’s reported salary? |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 5:58 am Post subject: |
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| dont_be_a_wuss wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Monty is probably making in one year, what Ham is getting over 3 years. Ham is probably one of the lowest paid coaches in the NBA. |
What is Darvin’s reported salary? |
Not reported. But we tend to (absent Phil Jax) be cheap with our coaches.
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Bron2AD
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:02 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | dont_be_a_wuss wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Monty is probably making in one year, what Ham is getting over 3 years. Ham is probably one of the lowest paid coaches in the NBA. |
What is Darvin’s reported salary? |
Not reported. But we tend to (absent Phil Jax) be cheap with our coaches. |
Not reporter but assumed, great |
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dont_be_a_wuss
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:11 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | dont_be_a_wuss wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Monty is probably making in one year, what Ham is getting over 3 years. Ham is probably one of the lowest paid coaches in the NBA. |
What is Darvin’s reported salary? |
Not reported. But we tend to (absent Phil Jax) be cheap with our coaches. |
Okay, I was looking for it yesterday. I agree, I think 4yrs, $20M is the upper end of what he might be making, and wouldn’t be surprised if it was less. |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:26 am Post subject: |
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| Bron2AD wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | dont_be_a_wuss wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Monty is probably making in one year, what Ham is getting over 3 years. Ham is probably one of the lowest paid coaches in the NBA. |
What is Darvin’s reported salary? |
Not reported. But we tend to (absent Phil Jax) be cheap with our coaches. |
Not reporter but assumed, great |
When have the Lakers paid their coaches amongst the top of the NBA? Not since Phil Jax. I highly doubt a rookie coach is getting more than 4-5m tops.
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Bron2AD
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:35 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bron2AD wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | dont_be_a_wuss wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Monty is probably making in one year, what Ham is getting over 3 years. Ham is probably one of the lowest paid coaches in the NBA. |
What is Darvin’s reported salary? |
Not reported. But we tend to (absent Phil Jax) be cheap with our coaches. |
Not reporter but assumed, great |
When have the Lakers paid their coaches amongst the top of the NBA? Not since Phil Jax. I highly doubt a rookie coach is getting more than 4-5m tops. |
Which other team is paying more for a rookie coach? |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:37 am Post subject: |
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| Bron2AD wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bron2AD wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | dont_be_a_wuss wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Monty is probably making in one year, what Ham is getting over 3 years. Ham is probably one of the lowest paid coaches in the NBA. |
What is Darvin’s reported salary? |
Not reported. But we tend to (absent Phil Jax) be cheap with our coaches. |
Not reporter but assumed, great |
When have the Lakers paid their coaches amongst the top of the NBA? Not since Phil Jax. I highly doubt a rookie coach is getting more than 4-5m tops. |
Which other team is paying more for a rookie coach? |
So what are you disagreeing with me about?
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Bron2AD
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:38 am Post subject: |
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| yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bron2AD wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bron2AD wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | dont_be_a_wuss wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Monty is probably making in one year, what Ham is getting over 3 years. Ham is probably one of the lowest paid coaches in the NBA. |
What is Darvin’s reported salary? |
Not reported. But we tend to (absent Phil Jax) be cheap with our coaches. |
Not reporter but assumed, great |
When have the Lakers paid their coaches amongst the top of the NBA? Not since Phil Jax. I highly doubt a rookie coach is getting more than 4-5m tops. |
Which other team is paying more for a rookie coach? |
So what are you disagreeing with me about? |
Ur assumption that we are paying cheap money to ham |
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yinoma2001
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 6:49 am Post subject: |
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| Bron2AD wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bron2AD wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Bron2AD wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | dont_be_a_wuss wrote: | | yinoma2001 wrote: | | Monty is probably making in one year, what Ham is getting over 3 years. Ham is probably one of the lowest paid coaches in the NBA. |
What is Darvin’s reported salary? |
Not reported. But we tend to (absent Phil Jax) be cheap with our coaches. |
Not reporter but assumed, great |
When have the Lakers paid their coaches amongst the top of the NBA? Not since Phil Jax. I highly doubt a rookie coach is getting more than 4-5m tops. |
Which other team is paying more for a rookie coach? |
So what are you disagreeing with me about? |
Ur assumption that we are paying cheap money to ham |
You literally agree with me. You asked "which other team is paying more for a rookie coach?" Sometimes you just want to disagree for the sake of disagreeing.
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Aeneas Hunter
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:02 am Post subject: |
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Woike:
| Quote: | | —The Lakers’ open stance about matching offers for the two could end up saving the team money, particularly with Reaves. After a terrific postseason debut, teams with cap space don’t have much optimism they’ll be able to pry him free, which means the Lakers’ four-year, $52 million-ish max offer might be the most he gets. People around the league, though, seem to think Reaves is worth more, but the rules prohibit the Lakers from giving it to him unless they’re matching another team’s offer. |
I still think that there's a good chance that Reaves signs a 2 + 1 deal with us.
| Quote: | | —I haven’t spoken to anyone who thinks LeBron James is retiring. The biggest reasons given to me for his comments after Game 4: fatigue from the season, frustration with getting swept and a reminder to the front office that the Lakers’ title window is closing, keeping a sense of urgency in the foreground. |
| Quote: | —Malik Beasley has value, either as a floor spacer or as a tradeable expiring contract. Those elements certainly factoring into the Lakers’ decision with his $16.5-million team option. There are strong arguments for picking up that option.
—There’s less optimism on Mo Bamba’s deal, which guarantees for $10.3 million on June 29 according to contract savants Spotrac. That’s a week after the NBA draft. It’s also the same day by which the Lakers have to make their decision on Beasley. |
| Quote: | | —Darvin Ham left plenty of people in and around the Lakers impressed with his run during the postseason. “We’ve got a good one,” one Lakers player said after Game 4. |
Link
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32
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:10 am Post subject: |
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Thanks AH.
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Bron2AD
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:30 am Post subject: |
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| Aeneas Hunter wrote: | Woike:
| Quote: | | —The Lakers’ open stance about matching offers for the two could end up saving the team money, particularly with Reaves. After a terrific postseason debut, teams with cap space don’t have much optimism they’ll be able to pry him free, which means the Lakers’ four-year, $52 million-ish max offer might be the most he gets. People around the league, though, seem to think Reaves is worth more, but the rules prohibit the Lakers from giving it to him unless they’re matching another team’s offer. |
I still think that there's a good chance that Reaves signs a 2 + 1 deal with us.
| Quote: | | —I haven’t spoken to anyone who thinks LeBron James is retiring. The biggest reasons given to me for his comments after Game 4: fatigue from the season, frustration with getting swept and a reminder to the front office that the Lakers’ title window is closing, keeping a sense of urgency in the foreground. |
| Quote: | —Malik Beasley has value, either as a floor spacer or as a tradeable expiring contract. Those elements certainly factoring into the Lakers’ decision with his $16.5-million team option. There are strong arguments for picking up that option.
—There’s less optimism on Mo Bamba’s deal, which guarantees for $10.3 million on June 29 according to contract savants Spotrac. That’s a week after the NBA draft. It’s also the same day by which the Lakers have to make their decision on Beasley. |
| Quote: | | —Darvin Ham left plenty of people in and around the Lakers impressed with his run during the postseason. “We’ve got a good one,” one Lakers player said after Game 4. |
Link |
makes sense. i think they will pick up Beasley and try to trade him for a pick and lower salary guy |
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gng930
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:54 am Post subject: |
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For AR, do you mean a 2+1 from the Lakers or from another team that we'd then have to match? The difference is about $20 million as you're probably aware. Not sure if any team will offer the latter knowing that the Lakers almost certainly match that. The Lakers' offer would still offer generational wealth though, especially out there in Arkansas. I hope that gets decided early on and we can move on.
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tox
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 8:59 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | —Last year’s second-round pick, Max Christie, has people around the Lakers very excited with his potential as he heads into a big summer.
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Not just LG cope?? |
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gng930
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 9:01 am Post subject: |
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Not totally buying that Beas is an asset at that price. Feels a bit like a leverage play through the media to generate buzz around draft day. There's just too many mixed messages out there between this and others that the team wants to avoid the tax altogether which probably isn't realistic if you opt in for Beas. I'm sure their hope is to field a contender and avoid the tax but they probably know very well that there are factors beyond their control that preclude that. I just heard from Jake Fischer on the Lakers Lounge podcast that there is a directive from up top that exceeding the 2nd apron is off the table. So are they entertaining another luxury tax payment next summer? Of course they are. But until they get a better read on the market, the final CBA numbers, and more details on the new CBA, I doubt they have a grasp on how it eventually plays out.
Ultimately, if the default stance is indeed running it back and skirting the tax as AH noted, I don't see a world where Beas is making $16 million with us.
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vasashi17+
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 9:11 am Post subject: |
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To add to what @AH posted…
| Quote: | D’Angelo Russell’s future with the Lakers is fair less certain. Sign-and-trade possibilities exist — the Lakers have endlessly been tied with Kyrie Irving, and Fred VanVleet’s name has been mentioned since even before he joined Klutch Sports, though the Lakers could again be in a position where they’d be forced to part with one or more draft picks in a deal. Russell’s postseason struggles were probably a little overblown after a disastrous Western Conference finals, but expect the Lakers to look at upgrade options. There’s still a chance Russell returns on a good deal and the Lakers actually get the continuity they’ve spoken about building. – via Dan Woike @ Los Angeles Times
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Smh…wasted a FRP if we can’t flip him on a re-up & he just walks.
| Quote: | Last year’s second-round pick, Max Christie, has people around the Lakers very excited with his potential as he heads into a big summer. – via Dan Woike @ Los Angeles Times
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Smfh…another 2yr deal, making dude head into free agency next summer & yet another poison pill possibility with no chance of extending him throughout this coming season.
Moving on from Woike, Buha joined the Hoopshype podcast and here’s some key points he touched on…
On Ky…
| Quote: | I’ve heard there’s no truth to any reports that Irving has a handshake deal with Dallas on a new max contract for four years with a player option at this time. Not to say he won’t be back in Dallas. They certainly have all the motivation to keep him after trading for him and the financial resources to make him the best offer possible, but nothing’s done as of yet.
Until we see a concrete resolution to his situation, I think there are always going to be murmurs. I think if you gave LeBron truth serum, he’d love to play with Kyrie again. I don’t think that’s a secret. He was pushing for Kyrie at the Feb. 9 trade deadline. He made public comments about it in a postgame media availability. The previous summer, he wanted the Lakers to trade Russell Westbrook for Kyrie.
As my colleague Tim Cato reported in one of his mailbags, Dallas has little to no incentive to help the Lakers out in this situation. The cleanest way to do it for L.A. would be a double sign-and-trade where they’d send D’Angelo Russell to Dallas, and they’d get back Kyrie. But why would Dallas do that? They don’t have interest in Russell. He’s coming off a disappointing Conference Finals.
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On Reaves…
| Quote: | The Lakers are going to match any contract offer sheet that he signs up to that $100 million. The Lakers view him as the third-best player on this team if you look at the regular season and postseason he had. He stepped up big time and was basically an 18-5-5 guy with near 50-40-90 shooting splits as a starter for them. There were several factors as to why the Lakers made that second half run, but chief among them – and maybe the biggest factor overall – was Reaves’ ascension.
I think the Lakers are going to retain him. Obviously, their preference would be to sign him to the four-year, $54 million deal. I’ve heard that there are going to be multiple suitors out there in talking with people around the league. You mentioned Orlando and Houston. I’ve heard San Antonio could be a dark horse team that will try to poach Austin from the Lakers.
He’s priority No. 1 for the Lakers this offseason. I think they learned from the Alex Caruso situation. Frankly, I think this would be a bigger disaster than Caruso because Reaves is a better player, and he’s shown more.
You mentioned $80 million, and $80-85 million is where teams think the Lakers might have to think about it and maybe call their bluff. Again, from what I’ve heard from the Lakers’ side, they’re matching all the way up to $100 million.
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On DLo…
| Quote: | I think, based on the conversations I’ve had, I don’t know where the market is for him. I think that gives the Lakers leverage in that he may have initially wanted that $25 annually, but he didn’t play up to that level. Secondly, where is the competition for his services? I think Russell proved he’s probably more of a $17-20 million guy.
I think it’s the pivot point of the offseason for them because we’ve mentioned Kyrie. Fred VanVleet is also out there. The Lakers could also pivot technically and let Russell walk, sign-and-trade him, or go for a mid-level exception type of point guard and maybe bring back Dennis Schroeder at that number. Ultimately, if you see a change on this roster, it’s probably coming at the point guard spot at the expense of Russell.
If he wants a certain number, whether it’s closer to $25 million, maybe you go shorter term and give two years, $50 million, and you’re on the same timeline as LeBron and Anthony Davis… I suspect a two or three-year deal. I think re-signing him is the most likely outcome.
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On Rui…
| Quote: | Similarly to Reaves, I’ve heard the Lakers plan on matching any contract offer sheet Hachimura signs… I’ve heard different numbers on Rui. Initially, I heard he turned down a contract extension offer from Washington that was in that $14-15 million range (annually)… He stepped up big time in the playoffs. If Austin was their third-best player most nights, I’d say Rui was their fourth-best player most nights… I think his market is anywhere in that $15-18 million range annually. In that range, the Lakers would retain him. I think where it gets a little dicey is if there’s a team that sells themselves on Rui and offers three years, $60 million or four years, $80 million.
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On SkyWalker…
| Quote: | I think that playoff performance and him re-emerging in the rotation bumps him up into that mini mid-level range again or the bi-annual exception on him. I think he’s in that $4-7 million range.
In his exit interviews, he made it clear he thinks highly of himself. He’s very confident. He wants a big role. From the Lakers’ side, they have his non-Bird Rights. I think he’s probably looking more at his role in his next contract that he’ll prioritize. I suspect he’ll end up elsewhere at a place where he can start or be a sixth or seventh man.
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On Schro…
| Quote: | Schroeder was the safety blanket at times for Ham. They can use part of their non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which goes to about $12.2 million on Dennis. Otherwise, I think he’s gone. He could start for some teams or be one of the better backups in the league. He’ll have suitors.
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On Beas & Mo team/guarantee options…
| Quote: | With the other two (Beasley and Bamba), ideally, the Lakers would love to keep them. But again, as we’re talking about money, $16.5 million for Beasley and $10.5 million for Bamba are figures I think that are too high for L.A. with what they’ll have to pay Austin, Rui, D’Angelo, and potentially Dennis. I think L.A. is looking at it like they can opt them in and trade them on draft night or down the road or decline Beasley’s options and waive Bamba.
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https://hoopshype.com/lists/lakers-rumors-lebron-james-kyrie-irving-austin-reaves-dangelo-russell-free-agency/
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gng930
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| Posted: Thu Jun 01, 2023 9:13 am Post subject: |
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Some thoughts on Dennis...
It's easy to take for granted his availability. He was incredibly durable for us and somehow shook off two catastrophic looking ankle sprains that would have kept most players out for weeks. Whoever we get to replace him may have more per-game impact but ultimately similar impact over an entire season after accounting for missed games.
However, his limitations were evident when we had him close in DLO's place. We ran into the same problem with Russ where AR was limited to an off-ball role. If we are able to retain Schro on a cheap deal, it's just starting to feel like the answer is to replace DLO with a more reliable 2-way player. With his value being at an all-time low, that might not happen until later on in the season.
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