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ChickenStu
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Joined: 25 Apr 2015
Posts: 32323
Location: Anaheim, CA
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 Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 5:52 am Post subject: |
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211 strikeouts for Teoscar last season. He does have big power potential and would be a needed right-handed bat, and at least a pitcher might have to worry about making a mistake when facing him. Seattle's park is also notorious in hurting right-handed power hitters. I could get behind this, depending on what type of contract we were talking about here.
This all said, I think I would be more interested in Jorge Soler. He has certainly had ups and downs in his career but when he's locked in, there's something about him that just looks the part at the plate. His strikeout rate dropped to under 25% last season (Hernandez was over 30%) and his walk rate improved to over 11%; in fact, his walk rate was twice as good as that of Hernandez last season. Oh, and Soler has an OPS of over 1.000 in 28 postseason games.
Both of them are poor defensive outfielders, which is why Soler spent most of his time DH'ing last year, so that could be a problem for the Dodgers. Hernandez had -.6 defensive WAR last year, while Soler's -1.5 mark is ghastly (though WAR is always unkind to DH's). |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
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| Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 8:16 am Post subject: |
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Yeah, Teoscar played 135 games in RF and 28 games at DH
Soler played 32 games in RF and 102 games at DH.
I'm thinking they'd move to LF. But seems like Teoscar might still be more playable in the outfield than Soler is right now.
But yeah, Soler has such a powerful bat. 36 HRs last yr. Imagine 36 HRs in LF instead of the 7 we got from Peralta.
If we added Soler (LF) + Ohtani (DH), we have a net gain of 40 HRs over last year:
| Quote: | 2024:
LF: Soler (36 HR)
DH: Ohtani (44 HR)
Total: 80 HR
2023:
LF: Peralta (7 HR)
DH: JD Martinez (33 HR)
Total: 40 HR
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 10:33 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Dodgers Showing Interest In Teoscar Hernandez
The Los Angeles Dodgers have expressed interest in Teoscar Hernandez, according to a report.
Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said Wednesday that a corner outfielder was among the club's needs this offseason.
Hernandez, 31, hit .261/.305/.435 with 26 home runs and seven stolen bases for the Seattle Mariners in 678 plate appearances this past season. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Posts: 16268
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| Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 11:28 am Post subject: |
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ESPN predicts free agent contracts:
https://archive.li/aH8wE#selection-17485.0-17509.511
| Quote: | 1) Shohei Ohtani
2024 Opening Day age: 29
Projected Contract: 10 years, $520 million ($52M average annual value)
| Quote: | I spoke to 26 industry insiders in May and they expected him to get over $500 million this winter; that projection moved to at least $550 million later in the season as he continued to stay hot. But there was a hiccup even within this incredible run. Ohtani had his second Tommy John surgery in October, taking some air out of the free agency hype.
Now you have to question his pitching contributions going forward, particularly with a long-term megadeal. We can assume (but not guarantee) he'll be a good pitcher again in 2025, but to maximize Ohtani's value, does he need to be on a hard innings count, or have planned breaks from pitching throughout the season, or be used in fewer but more important innings?
Does that unsure pitching outlook totally change his long-term value?
I'm asking questions but not answering them because his career has been a roller coaster with highs so high that there aren't any comparables. There's some growing buzz that Ohtani will want to answer this question by signing a shorter deal, then pitching in 2025 (and maybe 2026) before hitting the market again to cash in, but also maximize his earnings this winter.
This would mean signing for something like a six-year deal at a high AAV (let's say $55-60 million per year) with an opt-out or two that he intends on using.
For a long-term deal, I'll adjust down from the 12 years, $600 million that it seemed like we were headed toward pre-surgery but still keep my projection in the precedent-shattering megadeal area because Ohtani:
(1) is still pretty young;
(2) diversifies your risk by being elite both ways with a road for a solid on-field ROI from either; and
(3) has immense marketing value, unprecedented in this sport, that isn't diminishing anytime soon. |
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| Quote: | 2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2024 Opening Day age: 25
Projected Contract: 7 years, $212 million ($30.3M average annual value)
| Quote: | Then as I started preparing this list, almost every exec I spoke with said Yamamoto will get close to, if not more than, $200 million. You might wonder how a 5-foot-10 righty with no MLB experience and good-but-not-great stuff seems like a shoo-in for one of the biggest pitcher deals in years -- especially when more proven arms like Snell, Nola, and Jordan Montgomery are also available.
In the end, it's all about Yamamoto's age and what that does to the evaluation algorithms that nearly every club relies upon. Since Yamamoto is a plus athlete with plus command even before the normal physical prime for baseball players, there are all kinds of margins for error in projecting him far into the future. These models rely on history to make projections, so let's take one case study that would be a prominent example teams would look at to project Yamamoto: Aaron Nola.
If you take Nola as an example of a pitcher with above-to-plus stuff, plus command and strong durability, then add up Nola's WAR starting with his age-25 season, you can see where these teams are coming from:
| Quote: | 5.5 WAR, followed by
3.4,
2.0 (shortened 2020 season),
4.4,
6.3 and
3.9. |
That's 25.5 WAR with two years left on a hypothetical seven-year deal that also included a shortened season. The going rate for that five seasons of performance on the free agent market is roughly $200 million, with each team having its own situation to consider in that calculation.
In addition, Nola is expected to be close to as good in 2024 and 2025 as he was in 2023.
My projection for Yamamoto would be the most money guaranteed to a free agent pitcher since Gerrit Cole's $324 million deal with the Yankees four winters ago. The fee paid to Orix of NPB will be a tiered percentage of the contract, but for example, the fee for this projected contract would be $33.675 million, making it a $245.675 million package.
Cole received the biggest guarantee ever for a pitcher, with Stephen Strasburg's $245 million deal the second biggest, and that's the other deal that's a relevant comparable for Yamamoto.
Topping that Strasburg outlay seems like a reasonable target for Yamamoto and his reps to shoot for, and I think they'll attain it. His posting window will be 45 days and is expected to start soon, which would mean a contract will need to be finished by around Christmas. Given the broad interest, there is a chance that Yamamoto is the domino that holds up the high-end starting pitching market until January. |
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| Quote: | 3) Blake Snell
2024 Opening Day age: 31
Projected Contract: 6 years, $150 million ($25M average annual value)
| Quote: | Of the top-tier free agents, Snell is the one who scares me the most for projection purposes because I could legitimately see him landing as low as Robbie Ray ($115 million), more realistically in the Patrick Corbin range ($140 million) or falling just below the Carlos Rodon deal ($162 million) -- but I also can't rule out an enthusiastic team(s) pushing into the rarified air of Jacob deGrom ($185 million), Zack Greinke ($206.5 million) or Max Scherzer ($210 million).
My 80% confidence interval is $130 million to $185 million -- and that's a big gap.
One reason for this is Snell isn't the type of pitcher I'd be eager to get into a bidding war over. In terms of nine-figure deals for stuff-over-command lefties, you have the aforementioned Ray, Corbin and Rodon, who all look like disastrous deals for the clubs. A frontline, strikeout-heavy lefty starter might be the hardest thing to find in baseball, so teams will force it to try to add one.
Snell's 2023 ERA was a full run and a half better than his underlying peripherals, and his walk rate has never been under 3.2 per 9 innings. When the arm speed backs up, the breaking ball will get worse and there will be nothing to fall back on. He also has never pitched 181 innings in a season.
I can feel some readers pushing back on this much negativity about the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award.
First, this is projecting the future, not looking backward, and though I think the first few years of Snell's new deal will look fine, I'm more worried about the back end of the contract.
Second, at this time last year I had a few sources telling me to expect big regression from recent AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander due to similar regressing pitch quality, which is what happened to him this season.
If Snell wins a few playoff starts and stays healthy over the course of his next deal, he'll probably return solid value, maybe even enough to subsidize the back end of the contract. Maybe Snell is a lefty version of Scherzer who will hold his velocity and strikeouts into his mid-30s, and this will look like a screaming deal for the club that signs him. The real question I have is if the market will see this narrow part of the free agent market's awful returns and contain its enthusiasm for how good Snell looks when everything is clicking. |
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| Quote: | 4) Cody Bellinger
2024 Opening Day age: 28
Projected Contract: 7 years, $147 million ($21M average annual value)
| Quote: | Bellinger was one of the best young players in baseball in 2019 when, at age 23, he posted 7.8 WAR, winning the NL MVP and a Gold Glove, in addition to NL Rookie of the Year in 2017.
Two years later, he posted a -1.0 WAR (I did a deep dive on what went wrong) and he was non-tendered after the 2022 season, becoming a free agent because his potential arbitration salary was reflective of his 2019 self, not his 2021-22 reality.
The Cubs swooped in with a one-year, $17.5 million deal and Bellinger righted the ship in 2023, setting him up for something like the payday he might have been imagining in 2019. In my deep dive, I theorized the spiral came from the shoulder injury disrupting a high-maintenance swing dependent on confidence and bat speed, and then each adjustment made it a little worse.
In 2023, he was still chasing out of the zone at that new 2021-and-onward level, but he got more athletic in his swing (better plate coverage) and flatter in his attack angle (more in-zone contact). He had much lower exit velos and overall power production -- though his 26 homers suggested he was back. He significantly overperformed his underlying hitting metrics, so there's likely some natural regression to be expected.
I spin this narrative to illustrate the extreme highs and lows in his past and make the point that, despite a big bounce-back season, he isn't that guy who seemed like he was destined to make $300-plus million in 2019. Bellinger is younger than most other free agents and can play a solid center field, or be plus in right or left field or at first base. If you look just at 2023 and compare him to the rest of a terrible free agent hitting class, there's plenty to like; that's the fair way to look at it.
Brandon Nimmo's deal last offseason (eight years, $162 million, entering his age-30 season) was above market due to the short-term money-burning fever Mets owner Steve Cohen contracted, but Nimmo as a free agent was more enticing to me than Bellinger is right now.
Accordingly, I have Bellinger coming in a notch below Nimmo, but there's a big range possible here. Due to Bellinger's age (the models love it!) and upside along with the lack of high-end position players, I could reasonably see this going as low as $120 million and as high as $200 million. |
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| Quote: | 5) Aaron Nola
2024 Opening Day age: 30
Projected Contract: 5 years, $120 million ($24M average annual value) |
| Quote: | 6) Jordan Montgomery
2024 Opening Day age: 31
Projected Contract: 5 years, $106 million ($21.2M average annual value) |
| Quote: | 7) Josh Hader
2024 Opening Day age: 29
Projected Contract: 5 years, $105 million ($21M average annual value) |
| Quote: | 8) Matt Chapman
2024 Opening Day age: 30
Projected Contract: 4 years, $100 million ($25M average annual value) |
| Quote: | 9) Eduardo Rodriguez
2024 Opening Day age: 30
Projected Contract: 4 years, $72 million ($18M average annual value) |
| Quote: | 10) Sonny Gray, RHP
2024 Opening Day age: 34
Projected Contract: 3 years, $69 million ($23M average annual value)
| Quote: | | Gray's market is limited only due to his age, as he just had his best season: 184.0 IP, 2.79 ERA. He doesn't throw that hard (92.8 mph on his average fastball) but it plays up due to location and shape with his mid-80s slider serving as his headline out pitch. Gray will compete with Snell, Nola and Montgomery for the best pure starting pitcher AAV behind Yamamoto, so that's a reasonable target for his camp to shoot for. He'll likely land a three-year deal, but it's possible a team will go to a fourth year. |
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| Quote: | 12) Lucas Giolito
2024 Opening Day age: 29
Projected Contract: 4 years, $68 million ($17M average annual value)
| Quote: | Giolito has seemingly been a big name forever, as a potential No. 1 overall pick early in his high school career, then a longtime top prospect who was traded and took a while to find big league success but then had a great three-year run 2019-21 (427.2 IP, 3.47 ERA).
He hits free agency still in his 20s, but he's coming off two consecutive mediocre seasons (combined: 346.0 IP, 4.89 ERA). I don't think there's a team that thinks it can "fix" Giolito and just bring him back to his best form, but there are some that believe there's another gear with some tweaks, a change of scenery and a clean slate.
The best contract comp for a durable, possibly solid or maybe a bit better young righty starter with a history of performance is Taijuan Walker's deal last offseason: four years, $72 million. Since Walker was a complete nonfactor in the playoffs and the depth of the starting pitcher crop this winter means more competition, Giolito could come in below that comp, but I wouldn't bet against him topping it either. |
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| Quote: | 13) Marcus Stroman, RHP
2024 Opening Day age: 32
Projected Contract: 3 years, $63 million ($21M average annual value)
| Quote: | | While Giolito is a bit of a conundrum, Stroman is an easier evaluation: He has been basically the same pitcher his entire career going back to college. It makes sense that he'd lean into shorter-term deals to maximize AAV and build in opt-outs so he can renew at similar terms often, rather than try to convince teams to go five or six years for a very good pitcher who isn't the frontline type to get a megadeal. His last deal was three years, $71 million and he opted out of the last season at $21 million. I think he can get that AAV on a multiyear deal, at a touch below the full package of his last three-year deal. |
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| Quote: | 15) Teoscar Hernandez, RF
2024 Opening Day age: 31
Projected Contract: 3 years, $52.5 million ($17.5M average annual value)
| Quote: | | Hernandez is probably the class of this next group of hitters (Gurriel, Candelario, Garver, Soler and Hoskins) and could easily get a fourth year. He has the best mix of performance, power and defensive value in a corner, but the risk points are his contact rate and defensive value on the back end of the contract. If Mitch Haniger can get three years, $43.5 million going into his age-32 season with big durability issues, as he did last winter, then this whole group could clear that number given the lack of everyday bats. |
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| Quote: | 20) Jorge Soler, LF
2024 Opening Day age: 32
Projected Contract: 3 years, $37.5 million ($12.5M average annual value)
| Quote: | | Soler has been tough to figure out, cracking 2.0 WAR just once in his career despite having huge raw power and plenty of prospect hype dating back to when he signed with the Cubs in 2012. I slid Soler behind Hernandez and Candelario because he is a below-average defender in a corner outfield spot and might be DH-only soon enough. That said, his 2019 season (48 homers, 3.7 WAR) is the best season of anyone in this range, and his 2023 season (36 homers, 1.9 WAR) actually included some bad luck on balls in play, so there's a case he should float to the top of this trio if a team has a clear POV on an adjustment to unlock even a bit more offense. |
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| Quote: | 28) J.D. Martinez
2024 Opening Day age: 36
Projected Contract: 2 years, $25 million ($12.5M average annual value)
| Quote: | | Martinez's offensive performance ticked up in 2023 after bathing in the cleansing hitter waters of the Dodgers, as he posted his best isolated power since 2017. He'll do much better than the one-year, $10 million deal that landed him in Los Angeles -- with a lot of potential landing spots -- but I don't think there will be a three-year deal for a 36-year-old designated hitter. |
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| Quote: | 31) Kenta Maeda
2024 Opening Day age: 35
Projected Contract: 2 years, $22 million ($11M average annual value)
| Quote: | | Maeda and Clevinger below him both fit with the above group of bulk starters -- Martinez, Wacha, Manaea, Lorenzen and Lugo -- who should get multiyear deals. Maeda is the oldest, has the lowest velocity and likely has the least durability, but he also might be the best pitcher of the group. |
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| Quote: | 33) Craig Kimbrel
2024 Opening Day age: 35
Projected Contract: 2 years, $20 million ($10M average annual value)
| Quote: | | Kimbrel is a known quantity. He'll do that funny vampire thing with his arms and throw a bunch of flat high-90s fastballs up in the zone for swings and misses, but, as with Chapman, you might feel like he's on the verge of losing control often. He might choose a one-year deal but should get multiyear interest. |
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| Quote: | 36) Joc Pederson
2024 Opening Day age: 31
Projected Contract: 1 year, $16 million
| Quote: | | Pederson took the qualifying offer last winter (just under $20 million) and was one of the industry's picks to click with the lack of extreme shifts for pull-happy lefty hitters. That didn't really materialize -- his underlying stats matched 2022 on balance -- and he was hit-unlucky, so his WAR dropped from 2.1 to 0.6 despite no real drop-off in ability. He now has regressed to being used almost only as a DH, so I think it'll just be one-year deals the rest of the way for Joc. |
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| Quote: | 40) Hyun-Jin Ryu
2024 Opening Day age: 37
Projected Contract: 2 years, $14 million ($7M average annual value)
| Quote: | | Along with Lynn, Ryu felt like a candidate for a make-good, one-year deal to me, but I'm hearing he'll likely get multiyear interest despite averaging 88.8 mph on his heater and making 17 appearances in the past two seasons. Reliable back-end starters who might recede into the background in the playoffs aren't easy to find, so teams are expected to pay up on short-term deals for a number of them. |
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| Quote: | 42) Tim Anderson, SS
2024 Opening Day age: 30
Projected Contract: 1 year, $12 million
| Quote: | | Anderson and Amed Rosario (just missed the top 50) are the two proven starting shortstops who had terrible 2023 seasons and now will likely get one-year deals in order to reestablish themselves. Rosario turns 28 soon, but some underlying stats suggest he could be slowly moving into the utility-type part of his career. Anderson is two years older and his skill set/approach is similar to Rosario's, but his offensive and defensive metrics fell off a cliff so dramatically in the past two seasons that I think a savvy development club with an infield need (Orioles? Dodgers?) could still turn Anderson back into a solid everyday player after a -0.5 WAR disaster season in 2023. |
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| Quote: | 43) Justin Turner, 3B
2024 Opening Day age: 39
Projected Contract: 1 year, $12 million
| Quote: |
Turner turned down a $13.4 million player option that felt very fair to me, so I assume he's just looking to choose his next landing spot more than to test the limits of his true market value. He's now a solid first base/designated hitter who fits the righty part of a platoon and can fill in at other spots while being a bench bat and clubhouse presence. |
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| Quote: | 47) Jason Heyward
2024 Opening Day age: 34
Projected Contract: 1 year, $11 million
| Quote: | | Heyward posted his best WAR since 2019, and while he was a bit hit lucky, his underlying stats were also his best in two seasons as the Dodgers once again tapped into a player's dormant hitting ability. Given his veteran presence and ability to play all three outfield spots, he's a premium fourth outfielder/platoon starter for a contending team. There's some buzz around a two-year deal, but I think a one-year deal for $10-12 million is more likely. |
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| Quote: | 49) Harrison Bader, CF
2024 Opening Day age: 29
Projected Contract: 1 year, $10.5 million
Bader's league-leading-type defensive metrics in center field have regressed, as you'd expect in his late 20s, and he also has failed to play in more than 103 games since 2019. Buying low on a defensive specialist with some pop coming off a hit-unlucky year is another opportunity that I can see a model team pouncing on, likely tacking on an affordable team-option year in case he really delivers. |
| Quote: | 50) Tommy Pham
2024 Opening Day age: 36
Projected Contract: 1 year, $10 million
| Quote: | | There's a four-way tie here for this exact projected contract, so feel free to mentally insert Amed Rosario, Luis Severino or Kyle Gibson into this last spot. Pham is what he has been for the past few years: a left fielder who hits enough to be a low-end starter buoyed by immense confidence in himself. He was one of the more unlucky hitters in baseball this season, posting his best xwOBA since 2018, so a model/value-focused team could pay even more than $10 million on a one-year deal. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16268
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| Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 12:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Ten of the 14 executives polled by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com chose the Dodgers as Ohtani's next team.
"Like everybody else, I think he ends up staying in Los Angeles, but with the other team there," a National League executive said. "When the Dodgers have an infatuation with a guy and they've made moves that seem like they do, they always get their guy. I would be surprised if that's not where he ends up."
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16268
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| Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 12:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Report: MLB Cancels Remainder of GM Meetings After Virus Impacts 'More Than 30' Execs
Major League Baseball ended its annual General Mangers Meetings in Scottsdale, Arizona, early due to a virus that has impacted a number of people in attendance.
Per Sports Illustrated's Stephanie Apstein, MLB made the decision to cancel the remainder of the meetings on Wednesday after "more than 30" people came down with an illness.
Apstein noted earlier in the day that several league officials in attendance were dealing with an "undetermined stomach ailment" that could have been foodborne or a virus. A lunch buffet at the meetings on Tuesday was one of the possible culprits.
"No one has been reported sick since Wednesday morning, which would suggest food poisoning, but some of the people who became sick have reported that they did not eat at the buffet, which might mean the disease is infectious," Apstein wrote.
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| Quote: | The meetings began on Tuesday and were scheduled to end Thursday. The event is primarily used as a session for executives from all 30 teams to meet and discuss various topics about the sport related to the most recent season and bigger-picture items.
It's rare that major business related to players, like trades and free agency, happens at the GM meetings. The highest-profile event that typically occurs is agent Scott Boras' state of the union address where he discusses various topics and makes a lot of bad puns.
The next major event on the MLB calendar is the winter meetings. It will be held in Nashville, Tennessee from Dec. 4-7.
Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom all agreed to contracts during the 2022 winter meetings.
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Cutheon
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Joined: 10 Jul 2009
Posts: 12240
Location: Bay Area
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| Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 6:10 pm Post subject: |
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I’d be very interested in Jorge Soler. He’s legit power.
The entire Brewers roster is for sale. I’d be interested in eating Yelich’s contract to get Burnes, Devin Williams, and Contreras if we could swing it. |
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MookieBetts50
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Joined: 22 Jul 2020
Posts: 1964
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| Posted: Thu Nov 09, 2023 9:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Hernandez seems a better fit since he brings a glove more than Soler does. |
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16268
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 8:41 am Post subject: |
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Another thing to keep in mind: so far, I think 3 teams are cutting payroll next season.
Padres
Minny
White Sox
And I'm pretty sure this is due to the collapse/bankruptcy of RSN deals. What does this mean for us? The free agent market might be cheaper than we thought. Also, there might be a robust trade market as teams look to cut costs/payroll.
| Quote: | White Sox Not Expected To Match Franchise-Record Payroll
The Chicago White Sox will attempt to turn things around this offseason under first-year general manager Chris Getz.
The White Sox opened the 2023 season with roughly a $181 million payroll. That figure is about $12 million shy of the club's record payroll in 2022.
The team is unlikely to match the franchise-record mark and suggests they could scale back their spending level, according to a report.
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| Quote: | If you think losing RSN money won’t affect MLB payrolls, think again
The Twins have just announced that it will.
I’ve been beating this drum for a while, and the drumbeats just got louder.
Which one? The one that says that if regional sports network money dries up and MLB teams have to go to streaming to televise their games, there won’t be as much money coming in.
That thought was underscored by this report about the Minnesota Twins:
| Quote: | Major League Baseball’s Minnesota Twins are reducing their payroll and exploring alternative local TV options following the expiration of the team’s agreement with bankrupt regional sports network operator Diamond Sports Group.
Speaking at a league-wide general managers meeting earlier this week, Twins GM Derek Falvey said he doesn’t expect the team to match the all-time club-high $156 million collective player payroll it carried in the recently completed 2023 MLB season. |
The article goes on to say that the Twins got $54.8 million from Bally Sports North (part of the Diamond Sports Group) in 2023, and as that deal has expired, the Twins will have to look elsewhere for money to replace that.
This is where the Twins payroll could be in 2024:
| Quote: |
DanHayesMLB
@DanHayesMLB
#MNTwins to trim payroll in 2024. Nothing official, but it’s expected to sit between $125m and $140m. Last year, Twins payroll was a record $154m. |
https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2023/11/9/23954086/twins-rsn-money-bally-sports-payroll-cut
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LongBeachPoly
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Joined: 14 Jul 2012
Posts: 16268
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 2:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Tigers pitcher Eduardo Rodríguez has no geographic restrictions when it comes to shopping for a new team. That’s a notable change for the free agent right hander, who declined a trade to the Dodgers at the deadline this year because the move to Los Angeles would have taken him too far away from his family in Florida in the middle of a season.
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| Quote: | Danny Abriano at SNY lists J.D. Martinez as a top target for the Mets this offseason. The designated hitter knocked 33 homers this season, making him a prime candidate for teams seeking a new power hitter—especially if the Dodgers land Ohtani, who has never started at any other position but DH (or pitcher) in the majors.
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Dodgers looking for 2 corner outfielders?
| Quote: | Mookie Betts is expected to play second base for enough games that new corner outfielders are in order.
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Maybe Vargas or Busch will be in LF? If this is the case, it’s funny how they want to move Betts to 2B and Vargas/Busch to LF.
Why not leave Betts in RF and have Vargas/Busch play 2B?
| Quote: | GM Brandon Gomes has hinted at the possibility of seeing prospects Michael Busch and Miguel Vargas getting more playing time as outfielders:
“I think that it’s possible,” Gomes said of using Vargas and Busch in the outfield. “We’ll just see how the rest of it plays out and how they fit in. What they’ve done in the upper minors and their ability to move around the diamond is only beneficial.”
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ChickenStu
Retired Number
Joined: 25 Apr 2015
Posts: 32323
Location: Anaheim, CA
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 2:53 pm Post subject: |
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^
That Yelich contract worries me, although he had a fine rebound season at the plate a year ago. But he's never been a good defender (negative WAR for something like 6 years in a row) and 5 years and $130MM remaining has to be a big concern. What if he goes right back to where he was from 2020-2022? I get it though, the allure of getting Burnes and possibly not surrendering much in the way of prospect might be tempting to the Dodgers. If you got Yelich, that would take care of one corner OF spot.
If we don't get Yelich (with or without Burnes), I'd be looking at the likes of Hernandez, Gurriel, and Soler. The Dodgers may not consider Soler because they may see him as a DH who isn't capable of playing the outfield, but I say, we'll get by in the regular season anyway if he's a poor left fielder, screw it, and just get his bat to the postseason. As good as he was last season, Statcast suggests he was actually unlucky at the plate. |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 3:05 pm Post subject: |
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| This wouldn't really apply to the Dodgers, since there's no chance he gets traded to us, but the industry almost universally seems to think that Juan Soto is going to get traded by the Padres. Buster Olney said there's a "100%" chance of it happening. You'd have to think that the Yankees will have heavy interest, but obviously so will a lot of other clubs. I'm sure the Padres are looking for either established starting pitching, or high-end pitching prospects in any deal. Beyond the aging Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, they have Snell, Wacha, and Seth Lugo all hitting free agency. |
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Lamar's Bud
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | | This wouldn't really apply to the Dodgers, since there's no chance he gets traded to us, but the industry almost universally seems to think that Juan Soto is going to get traded by the Padres. Buster Olney said there's a "100%" chance of it happening. You'd have to think that the Yankees will have heavy interest, but obviously so will a lot of other clubs. I'm sure the Padres are looking for either established starting pitching, or high-end pitching prospects in any deal. Beyond the aging Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, they have Snell, Wacha, and Seth Lugo all hitting free agency. |
I wouldn't say there is "no" chance, but definitely close to it. I'm sure the Padres would happily trade him to us if we overpaid in prospects, taking on a bad contract, and anything else they can think of. Definite (Laker) Dodger "tax" situation here.
AF would have to be so enamored with acquiring Soto and willing to overpay for it to happen, which isn't at all likely, but I don't think it's absolute zero chance either. I would have to give it even the slightest 0.0000001% chance of happening if Ohtani doesn't come here.
I would think the Ohtani domino has to fall before Soto trade talks heat up. Teams that miss out on Ohtani will likely throw their hat in on any Soto trade discussions. |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Lamar's Bud wrote: | | ChickenStu wrote: | | This wouldn't really apply to the Dodgers, since there's no chance he gets traded to us, but the industry almost universally seems to think that Juan Soto is going to get traded by the Padres. Buster Olney said there's a "100%" chance of it happening. You'd have to think that the Yankees will have heavy interest, but obviously so will a lot of other clubs. I'm sure the Padres are looking for either established starting pitching, or high-end pitching prospects in any deal. Beyond the aging Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, they have Snell, Wacha, and Seth Lugo all hitting free agency. |
I wouldn't say there is "no" chance, but definitely close to it. I'm sure the Padres would happily trade him to us if we overpaid in prospects, taking on a bad contract, and anything else they can think of. Definite (Laker) Dodger "tax" situation here.
AF would have to be so enamored with acquiring Soto and willing to overpay for it to happen, which isn't at all likely, but I don't think it's absolute zero chance either. I would have to give it even the slightest 0.0000001% chance of happening if Ohtani doesn't come here. |
The Padres would have to feel like they are fleecing us just to consider flipping him to their bitter division rival, and Friedman isn't going to do any trade where he's giving a lot more than he knows he should, particularly here, for an expiring contract. If we could somehow even pass that obstacle, and if you're thinking about trading for him and then lavishing him with a mega-extension a la Mookie Betts, that takes us out of the Ohtani sweepstakes. I can't see us getting out of that business. Which means that if we traded for him, it would almost certainly have to be a massive overpay just to have him for 1 year. And I can't see any way that could realistically happen.
Well, I just thought of one way it could happen: Ohtani somehow informs us (before any Soto trade) that we are out of the running for him, and we pivot hard to trying to acquire Soto, which, again, would require an overpay. And then maybe AF feels it's worth the overpay if we sign him to the extension. All of this feels incredibly remote.
A trade with the Brewers really does seem to line up. We have an obvious need for Burnes or Peralta, we have prospects/young players who already have MLB experience, we have the ability to possibly take on a bad contract, and we could even be a possible match for Devin Williams as well. Williams, if anyone is wondering, has 2 arb years left. Peralta, who is only 27, actually has 3 years of club control left, due $5.5MM in '24 and then 2 incredibly affordable club options in '25 and '26 for just $8MM in each year. Honestly, you might be able to get Burnes for a lesser cost, even though he's more highly-regarded, given that he has just 1 year of club control left and that he's much more expensive in '24 (Spotrac estimates him getting over $14MM in arbitration). Most likely, Milwaukee doesn't want to completely tear it down, but dealing Burnes and Williams and keeping Peralta (with that kind of club control) makes sense. Willy Adames makes sense as another trade chip for them, since he's going into his final year of arb as well, and we've been linked to him in the past. But with Lux returning and with a plan of playing Mookie often at second base, I don't see him as a target of ours this time around. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 5:12 pm Post subject: |
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^
I'd say taking on Yelich's contract (in full or a significant portion) would be close to zero.
It just doesn't fit Friedman's MO.
Friedman is so averse to big risky multi-year contracts. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he's only given out 3 deals for 5+ yrs? That's Freeman, Betts, and Jansen. (I'm not going to count Kershaw. Kershaw was probably the no. 1 commodity in MLB at the time of his extension).
Friedman just doesn't like to commit to players for 5+ years. He even only wanted Harper on a 4 year deal.
Friedman values flexibility too much to commit big money on a long term deal.
I think Friedman would rather pay the cost in prospects than take on Yelich's contract.
Plus, if we get Ohtani at $50M+, then we'll be paying like $110M for 3 players (Betts, Ohtani, Freeman).
Can't add Yelich's salary to that mix. |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 5:31 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | ^
I'd say taking on Yelich's contract (in full or a significant portion) would be close to zero.
It just doesn't fit Friedman's MO.
Friedman is so averse to big risky multi-year contracts. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he's only given out 3 deals for 5+ yrs? That's Freeman, Betts, and Jansen. (I'm not going to count Kershaw. Kershaw was probably the no. 1 commodity in MLB at the time of his extension).
Friedman just doesn't like to commit to players for 5+ years. He even only wanted Harper on a 4 year deal.
Friedman values flexibility too much to commit big money on a long term deal.
I think Friedman would rather pay the cost in prospects than take on Yelich's contract.
Plus, if we get Ohtani at $50M+, then we'll be paying like $110M for 3 players (Betts, Ohtani, Freeman).
Can't add Yelich's salary to that mix. |
Yes, you're probably right. |
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MookieBetts50
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 6:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Per Nightingale, the Cubbies are now right behind us in the Shotime Sweepstakes. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 6:12 pm Post subject: |
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| MookieBetts50 wrote: | | Per Nightingale, the Cubbies are now right behind us in the Shotime Sweepstakes. |
That's good!
I fear the Mets, not the Cubs. |
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MookieBetts50
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 6:59 pm Post subject: |
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| LongBeachPoly wrote: | | MookieBetts50 wrote: | | Per Nightingale, the Cubbies are now right behind us in the Shotime Sweepstakes. |
That's good!
I fear the Mets, not the Cubs. |
Wondering if Suzuki has been doing some recruiting to sway his fellow countryman?
Hopefully Ohtani is still respectful/complimentary towards Mookie and Freddie just a little more to combine forces to form the best top of the order in recent MLB history. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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| MookieBetts50 wrote: | | LongBeachPoly wrote: | | MookieBetts50 wrote: | | Per Nightingale, the Cubbies are now right behind us in the Shotime Sweepstakes. |
That's good!
I fear the Mets, not the Cubs. |
Wondering if Suzuki has been doing some recruiting to sway his fellow countryman?
Hopefully Ohtani is still respectful/complimentary towards Mookie and Freddie just a little more to combine forces to form the best top of the order in recent MLB history. |
Yup. both Cubs and Mets have a Japanese player. We don't.
We might have messed up on that, not getting another Japanese player to entice Ohtani. |
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Cutheon
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| Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2023 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | ^
That Yelich contract worries me, although he had a fine rebound season at the plate a year ago. But he's never been a good defender (negative WAR for something like 6 years in a row) and 5 years and $130MM remaining has to be a big concern. What if he goes right back to where he was from 2020-2022? I get it though, the allure of getting Burnes and possibly not surrendering much in the way of prospect might be tempting to the Dodgers. If you got Yelich, that would take care of one corner OF spot.
If we don't get Yelich (with or without Burnes), I'd be looking at the likes of Hernandez, Gurriel, and Soler. The Dodgers may not consider Soler because they may see him as a DH who isn't capable of playing the outfield, but I say, we'll get by in the regular season anyway if he's a poor left fielder, screw it, and just get his bat to the postseason. As good as he was last season, Statcast suggests he was actually unlucky at the plate. |
The cons with Yelich are obvious so I won’t get into them. I’ll just say even at his worst he was just league average to slightly above offensively. And he puts the ball in play, which I like. Defense is trash and contract is bad but if he gets you Burnes and maybe someone else, and reduces your prospect load, I’m okay with it. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:27 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Noah Camras
@noahcamras
Bryce Harper won the Silver Slugger award over Dodgers DH J.D. Martinez in the National League.
Martinez: .271/.321/.572, 33 HR, 103 RBI, 27 2B, 432 AB
Harper: .293/.401/.499. 21 HR, 72 RBI, 29 2B, 457 AB
What am I missing here? This is a regular season offensive award.
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:36 am Post subject: |
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GM Brian Gonez blames Vargas’ struggles on a hand injury.
| Quote: | #Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes blamed hand injuries as major factor in Miguel Vargas' struggles that landed him back in AAA. Expectation is Mookie Betts will play a lot of 2B again next year so Vargas and Michael Busch might have to find playing time elsewhere, potentially LF
— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) November 8, 2023
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Looks like the plan is for Betts to play more 2B. How much more? Looks like his D was good/great at 2B?
| Quote: | Mookie has shown he is more than capable of playing at second base. First of all, he was drafted as a second baseman in 2011, and this season, he showed he could play it at a Gold Glove level. In 2023, at second, he spent 485 innings there, had 87 putouts, 138 assists, only two errors, and a fielding percentage of .991.
The 30-year-old star is more than capable, and we cannot wait to see what other web gems he produces on the infield dirt. One big final takeaway from all of this is, hopefully this means the Dodgers will be in on adding a big bat in the free agent outfielders market.
https://dodgersnation.com/dodgers-news-gm-hints-at-position-change-for-mookie-betts-in-2024/2023/11/10/
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Yeah, I still don’t understand why they need to move Betts when we have Busch and Vargas. Oh well, we’ll see. |
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ChickenStu
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| Posted: Sat Nov 11, 2023 3:50 pm Post subject: |
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^
It does match what my eyes told me I saw. He looks exceptionally natural at second base, and his fielding fundamentals are flawless. Maybe the Dodgers think it will be less wear and tear on his body if he's not running in the outfield, who knows. |
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LongBeachPoly
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| Posted: Sat Nov 11, 2023 5:52 pm Post subject: |
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| ChickenStu wrote: | ^
It does match what my eyes told me I saw. He looks exceptionally natural at second base, and his fielding fundamentals are flawless. Maybe the Dodgers think it will be less wear and tear on his body if he's not running in the outfield, who knows. |
Yeah, if it’s a permanent move and they get a good defensive RF, ok.
But Vargas/Busch to the outfield while a GG RF to 2B is a head scratcher to me.
There’s a part to this puzzle that I feel I’m missing.
Maybe Vargas/Busch are absolutely brutal at 2B.
Maybe Betts is as valuable at 2B as he is in RF.
Maybe they trade both Vargas/Busch and sign a powerful RH bat to play RF (outfielders are more plentiful than 2B).
It’s something I feel I’m missing. |
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