Mock Draft/NFL Draft discussion

[LongBeachPoly]

[angrypuppy]

And on the subject of fast processing, that's what concerns me about Maye. Sometimes I think fans and scouts fall in love with his height and weight, and I think his arm talent is overrated. His arm does look above average, but he's no Josh Allen, Favre, or Jeff George. As much as I hate looking at a Pro Day tape, I knew he was going to clean up his mechanics and let loose. During games he all too often doesn't get his feet set, he's never in a position to let loose, and he even has a bad tendency to throw off his back foot. He gets away with it because his arm is very good, but it begs the question: In the perfect lab conditions of a pro day (no real pressure, no DBs) can he sling it? The best he could do was a tad under 65 yards in perfect conditions, most of the time it was 60 yards if you rounded up.

On to the processing... I didn't see it present. He kept locking onto his target. I didn't see him rapidly running through his progressions. I think his comp is Goff in terms of arm talent and not being a fast processor, and that is his ceiling. His floor is Mitch Trubisky or Jameis Winston; someone with impressive physical attributes who will hang around for a few years as a backup, with the distant hope that maybe the light bulb will suddenly shine.

[angrypuppy]

[ChickenStu]

[angrypuppy]

[ChickenStu]

It's time for another mock. There are still a few notable free agents out there, but we're into April now and most Pro Days are over. This is the time for "top 30" visits and where coaches get more involved in the draft rooms of teams, as up to this point it's mostly the scouts who have done the work on the prospects. I have a lot of trades going down in this one, and of course all of them are realistic! Without further ado...

1. Bears
Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Williams has now moved to -5000 to go #1 overall, and no, the Bears won't be trading out of this spot.

2. Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Daniels is holding steady as the slight favorite to go #2 overall, and I've believed for a few weeks now that he would be the pick for Washington.

3. Patriots
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

The indications are that New England will stick and pick a QB in this spot, and while it wouldn't completely shock me if they preferred McCarthy to Maye, I'll continue to slot Maye here. I do believe the reports that Daniels is #1 on their board, but it's looking like they will not have access to him.

4. Vikings
JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan
TRADE! Arizona trades #4 to Minnesota for #11 and #23.

There's a unique opportunity here for Arizona, Minnesota, and the Chargers to essentially enter into a 3-way deal, because the Chargers happen to have the very next pick after this. If you believe the reports, we know the Vikes want a QB, we know that Arizona wants Harrison Jr., and we know that the Chargers are interested in a trade back. OK, so let's deal with this pick first: Minnesota gets its guy in McCarthy.

5. Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
TRADE! The Chargers trade #5 and #110 to Arizona for #11 and #27.

Ah yes, so here's the next part of this trade. Arizona still comes away with MHJ, and they've turned #4 and #27 into 5, 23, and 110. Meanwhile, the Chargers accomplish their goal of trading down and picking up more assets, turning #5 and #110 into 11 and 27...two 1st rounders. And while moving down to #11 would mean they'd miss out on the top 3 WR's, they now have some draft ammo to work with. Hmm.

6. Giants
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

I buy the notion that the Giants would have interest in one of the top 4 QB's, but I don't think they will be able to pull off a trade up for one of them. (In fact, I continue to think that Minnesota probably has a wink-wink deal with Arizona at #4 to guarantee access to one of the top 4 signal callers.) Instead, coming away with the electrifying Nabers isn't a bad consolation prize.

7. Titans
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

This pick is very chalk-y in the mock community, especially after signing Calvin Ridley. The club hasn't had a good LT since the days where Taylor Lewan was healthy.

8. Chargers
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
TRADE! Atlanta trades #8 and #109 to the Chargers for #11 and #69.

Well, well, well! The Chargers gave Keenan Allen to the Bears, and here they jump them to make sure that the Bears don't get Odunze, too. I know that Dallas Turner has been heavily mocked to Atlanta, but there is intel that they also love Quinyon Mitchell. If they are OK with passing on Turner, they could move down to 11, likely get Mitchell, and move up 40 spots in the draft from the 4th Round and into the 3rd Round. Meanwhile, the Chargers are willing to do this because the gap between Odunze and the WR4 in this draft, Brian Thomas Jr., is larger than the gap between the OL they would likely be looking at with #11 (Fuaga?) compared to an OL they can get at #27. And while they give up their 3rd rounder in this deal, at least they will now have two 4th rounders to help fill holes. This still gives them three picks in the top 37 and 5 picks in the first 4 rounds.

9. Bears
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

Although I believe Chicago would have preferred Odunze, it's just fine for them if they end up with the first defensive player of the draft to pair with Montez Sweat off the edge.

10. Jets
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

The intel coming out of New York is that they are locked in on trying to find a pass-catching weapon with this pick, likely either Bowers or one of the top 3 WR's if they fall. I don't believe that will happen, but Bowers makes a ton of sense.

11. Falcons
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
TRADE! (See #8 for details.)

Indeed, Atlanta gets Mitchell after the trade down. Potentially, this gives them their best CB duo in ages, as Mitchell can form a tandem with the excellent AJ Terrell.

12. Colts
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
TRADE! Denver trades #12 to Indianapolis for #15 and #82.

I see Denver as a prime trade-down candidate here at #12. I think they probably are looking at Bo Nix, but picking him at 12 feels pretty awful. Luckily for them, there are a whole slew of players that teams could reasonably want to move up for. In this case, we know that Indy is looking at both Mitchell and Arnold, two possible #1 boundary corners who fit the athletic profile for GM Chris Ballard. We also know that the Raiders, scheduled to pick next, could be looking at Arnold as well. (Antonio Pierce has spoken openly of their desire for a #1 corner and he was in serious conversation with Arnold at his Pro Day.) So a deal where Indy jumps the Raiders to get Arnold, and where Denver gets a much-needed Day 2 pick (they do not have a 2nd rounder this year), makes sense.

13. Raiders
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

I believe that the Raiders would be looking at either Arnold or Fuaga for this pick, so with the former gone, the latter becomes the selection. He fits what Pierce wants the Raiders to be, and that's nasty upfront. Paired with LT Kolton Miller, yes, this would be a potentially ferocious tackle tandem.

14. Saints
Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

The Saints need a LT badly, and need to improve their OL overall, likely needing a LT and a guard starter. The remaining top OL prospects aren't as "clean" of a fit at LT, perhaps.

15. Steelers
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
TRADE! Denver trades #15 to Pittsburgh for #20 and #84.

Denver is at it again, moving down once more for extra draft capital. I mean, no one is going to pick Nix before 20, so picking up yet another 3rd rounder completely makes sense for them. Meanwhile, the Steelers want to get more powerful upfront with Arthur Smith now calling plays, so they make the move up for the experienced Latham. They can figure out who will play LT and who will play RT between Latham and last year's 1st rounder, Broderick Jones.

16. Seahawks
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

There's buzz that Penix will go as the QB5, and, frankly, I'm buying it. I think Penix has been overlooked in this process by many. Yes, he's not 20 or 21, and yes, he has an injury history. But running like a WR at his Pro Day may have quelled some of those injury concerns (as if he can't move well), and the fact remains that he has been a highly-productive QB over the last 2 years and we aren't talking about inflated stats on bubble screens where his receivers are just getting a bunch of YAC. Penix slings it all over the field and has a golden left arm. He kind of reminds me of a lefty Matthew Stafford, actually. Penix's OC at Washington, Ryan Grubb, now holds the same position for the Seahawks. There couldn't be a cleaner fit.

17. Jaguars
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

I think this could be a choice between Wiggins or Thomas Jr., and both guys can fly. (GM Trent Baalke is a RAS/athletes guy.) Given that the CB need is more pressing, I'll opt for the cover man here.

18. Bengals
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

While OL remains a possibility here, I think the need has been mitigated somewhat by the signing of RT Trent Brown. What I do know is that Tee Higgins will not be a Bengal in 2025. In fact, I think he could be traded before or during the draft. How about an LSU WR replacement, then?

19. Rams
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

If the board fell this way, the Rams would have their pick between Verse and Byron Murphy, and you can make arguments for either one of them. Do they go for a DT to replace Aaron Donald, or a more traditional pass rusher from the edge? I think Verse may be higher-rated, so I'll opt for him.

20. Broncos
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
TRADE! (See #12/#15 for details.)

Denver finally makes the pick of Nix, and at least they've come away with two 3rd Round picks for their moves down the board.

21. 49ers
Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington
TRADE! Miami trades #21 to San Francisco for #31, #94, and #124.

Miami is without a 3rd Round pick and a 4th Round pick as it stands, so this trade would allow them to pick up selections in both of those rounds now. Meanwhile, the 49ers still have 2 picks in the 4th Round even after this deal, and they jump up ahead of several OL-interested teams to get the experienced and versatile Fautanu. The San Francisco OL has sprung some leaks, as every non-Trent Williams starter could be improved upon.

22. Eagles
Graham Barton, C/G, Duke

Barton's iOL versatility would be a welcomed addition for a team that is short one starter on the interior at the moment. Adding Barton would mean that he, Landon Dickerson, and Cam Jurgens all have center/guard experience. Philly could simply let it all play out during OTA's and training camp and see what their best alignment is.

23. Cardinals
Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
TRADE! (See #4 for details.)

Cardinal fans would have to be doing backflips if they came away with MJH and Murphy in the 1st Round. But if 6 QB's go in the first 20 picks and with as many OL as we're going to see, there's a very good chance that blue-chip players are going to fall into the 20's and maybe even out of the 1st Round altogether.

24. Cowboys
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

The enormous potential (and strong tape) of Mims, or the higher-floor Guyton, who has great potential himself? Dallas takes the big swing with Mims here.

25. Packers
Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa

Green Bay could use a nickel back/safety in the secondary, and he would certainly fit the athletic profile for GM Brian Gutekunst.

26. Buccaneers
Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

Jackson Powers-Johnson could be a consideration here to fill the shoes of the retiring Ryan Jensen, but Robinson is an insane athlete and it's ultimately very difficult for me to imagine him slipping out of the 1st Round. Shaq Barrett was released and it's not like former 1st rounder Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has lit the world on fire, so I think this pick would make sense.

27. Chargers
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
TRADE! (See #5 for details.)

So the Chargers have come away with Odunze and Guyton here in the 1st, with another pick coming at #37 early in the 2nd Round. After their wheeling and dealing, they turned #5, #69, and #110 into #8, 27, and #109. Essentially, for moving down 3 spots from 5 to 8, they moved from #69 all the way up to #27. And they still addressed WR and OT in the 1st Round, their two biggest needs.

28. Bills
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

I knew the Diggs vibes were off in Buffalo, but I still thought that he would stick on the roster for one more year, given the $31MM dead cap hit that they are now taking by trading him. The WR need is now much more pressing, then, so here's a possible downfield threat replacement. Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid can gobble up the short to intermediate targets, and perhaps Mitchell can be the field-stretcher as a rookie.

29. Lions
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

Yes, Carlton Davis was added, but Cam Sutton was cut in the wake of some disturbing domestic violence allegations. The Lions were outstanding against the run a season ago, with their clear weakness being against the pass. Adding another corner with a strong pedigree could make sense here.

30. Ravens
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

It's true that the OL situation appears dire at the moment. The LT, Ronnie Stanley, can't stay healthy, and the RT, Morgan Moses, was traded to the Jets. However, this is a team that takes a BPA approach and it feels like so often, a top talent just falls into their laps with their 1st Round pick. It has happened again here with Latu, who is actually a better pure pass rusher than Dallas Turner, who went #9 overall in this mock. And the team could use more pass rush after losing Clowney in free agency. As for the OL need, at least the draft is deep at that position, so they can still address that later.

31. Dolphins
Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
TRADE! (See #21 for details.)

Miami has missed out on some of the top OL in the draft from this trade down the board. However, as they now have picks in each of the top 4 rounds again, and as this is a loaded OL class, they can still address that need later on. Newton is a potentially dynamic interior disruptor, a la Calijah Kancey from a year ago as an undersized-but-athletic DT, and he could help fill the shoes of the departed Christian Wilkins, who is now a Raider.

32. Chiefs
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

Particularly on the heels of Rashee Rice's legal troubles, this pick still makes more sense to me than, say, a much-needed LT. And I have a hunch that KC could go the veteran LT route like they did a season ago with Donovan Smith, perhaps with Charles Leno Jr. this time.

[ChickenStu]

[angrypuppy]

Penix has a lightning-quick release and excellent arm talent. He's faster than most realize. He has excellent touch on his long, third-level passes, and bucket-thrower accuracy when given time. Can make very nice throws off-platform, on the run. Cons: Poor pocket presence, and I wonder how much of that was from fear of getting injured prior to the draft based on his history. When he sees a pass rusher bearing down on him, his accuracy deserts him, even on screen passes, so you have to wonder about how he'll hold up under pressure. Has less touch on his passes to the second and first levels where he tends to gun it. He also makes wonderful throws outside of the numbers, but he's very reluctant to pass inside of the numbers. Is it a processing or vision issue? In his last playoff game, he was forced to throw there and had resultant interceptions. And there's a yellow caution flag as he threw to some very high-quality WRs.

If he can conquer his deficiencies, Penix may emerge as the best QB in this draft class. But those are some major issues, and I harbor doubts that he'll conquer them. Despite all that, I could see a team grabbing him towards the end of the first round and spending time to develop him.

[angrypuppy]

McCarthy is just an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Did we ever see him carry Michigan this season? Did he ever have to battle back from being down two or more scores? It wasn't his fault though. Michigan had a ball control game plan: elite defense and an excellent run game. They never needed McCarthy to do all that much. Even if you look at the highlight reels on YouTube, you'll note that many of his splash plays are at the end of very one-sided contests. If these were NFL games, the fans would be accusing him of stat padding.

I want to see what a QB can do when a pass rusher is bearing down on him. I want to see a QB show moxie when his team is down in big games under bright lights. McCarthy has enough arm to make the throws and can run for first downs when necessary, but he is being sold on his intangibles, and I just don't see justification on tape for those intangibles. Honestly, I can see teams and observers wishing him to be top 10 on the flimsy justification of a good Pro Day, but to me, he should be mid to late first, and that's giving him the benefit of the doubt.

[ChickenStu]

[angrypuppy]

[ChickenStu]

[angrypuppy]

[slavavov]

I may be good with the Chargers doing what ChickenStu outlined in that mock draft if Odunze has what it takes to make multiple Pro Bowls.

At least one pundit has said Odunze may be or is the best WR in this year's draft.

_________________
Lakers 49ers Chargers Dodgers

[LakerLanny]

[Moses]

Me and my friends have a yearly tradition, where we each pick a question for the first round and see if we can guess right. Feel free to share yours if you find it interesting:

- Number of QBs selected in top 10
- Number of QBs selected in round 1
- Position group with most selected in Round 1 (QBs, OL, WRs, DBs)
- Predict the top 3 picks
- Number of trades in the first round
- First OL player selected
- Will there be more offensive players or defensive players selected in round 1
- Will a running back be selected in round 1
_________________
Lakers, Chargers, Dodgers, Arsenal FC.

Mamba Forever
The Marathon Continues
Still I Rise

[ChickenStu]

[youtube][/youtube]

[ChickenStu]

Some questions I have:

--At which pick does the first trade happen?

--Does a surprise team come away with a 1st Round QB?

--Rife with draft capital, will the likes of Arizona, Green Bay, and San Francisco try to move up in the 1st Round?

--Which "name" player is the one that slips the furthest?

--Which "sleeper" player is the one that goes much earlier than expected?

--Does an already established NFL player get traded during the 1st Round?

--We aren't expecting a RB to go in the 1st; will we see a LB or a pure Safety go in the 1st?

[angrypuppy]

[angrypuppy]

[ChickenStu]

^
Regarding Arizona, they also have pick #27 in the 1st Round and they currently have a high-2nd (#35), a high-3rd (#66), another high-3rd (#71, from Tennessee), and yet another 3rd (#90, from Houston). They also have a high-4th (#104) and a high-5th (#138). So they have plenty of ammo to move back up from #27, if they so choose and if they can make a deal work. If they come away with Harrison Jr. with their first pick, maybe they'd entertain a move up the board from #27 for a high-impact defender such as Mitchell or Arnold (one of the top 2 CB's), Murphy (the top DT), or any of the pass rushers. Or maybe a move back up for Thomas Jr. to really load up at WR; that would be fun! Perhaps not advisable, but fun nonetheless!

Oh, and I have your Yale OT going 62nd to Baltimore, and Tankathon has him going as the last pick of the 2nd Round (#64) to KC.

[Moses]

[angrypuppy]

Finally, draft day cometh. There's plenty of smoke surrounding McCarthy, who has benefited from two attributes:

1) Jim Harbaugh's proclamations
2) The "Brady Halo Effect"

Though I think highlight reels are terrible as you never see the boneheaded plays, the video behind McCarthy magnifies what I saw during Michigan games. It wasn't his fault, but he benefited from garbage time. Harbaugh would let him open up rather late during one-sided games. I don't blame Harbaugh, he's there to win games and frankly, McCarthy wasn't needed to be more than a game manager whenever Michigan faced a worthy opponent. Michigan won games with a dominant defense, quality running attack, and not turning the ball over. McCarthy was just not part of that equation and that leads me to believe that he's very under-developed. He's the youngest of the QB prospects so time is on his side. He needs to carry a clipboard throughout his rookie season, and, like his days in college, be limited to garbage time early in his second season. At least that's my projection. He's going to have to adjust to not having the same degree of pass protection he received in college, and of course, the speed of the NFL game is vastly different.

[angrypuppy]

Now onto the New England Patriots. The acting GM, Wolf, keeps talking about how Drake Maye is a great fit, yet at the same time he's obviously shopping the pick. You can't have it both ways, QB is the one position in football that can change a franchise's fortunes. I don't think NE is sold on Maye. I'm not either. He keeps getting over-hyped due to his physical size and over-the-top comparisons to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. His upside to me is a slightly better version of Goff, and his floor is Trubisky. He's more likely to hit the floor.

One more reason to shop Maye: there's no GM in New England. The acting GM is hoping to secure the GM position which probably makes him risk-averse. Why? There's a high bust rate among QBs taken in the first round, and Maye looks like a project that in turn would jeopardize Wolf ascending to GM. Trading out of pick #3 diversifies the risk much like Markowitz Portfolio Theory.

[ChickenStu]

^
I think the Pats will stick and pick a QB. And though roughly half of 1st Round QB's bust, it's actually no higher than the bust rate for most positions. In fact, the position that busts the most, by far, is WR. The safest picks have been OL, namely centers, actually.